Fun with Bubbles: How Elon Musk and the Government are Recreating the Housing Crisis

 

BubbleFor all the arguments between liberals and conservatives on economic issues, most boil down to one core point of contention: conservatives realize that government doesn’t do a lot of things very well. One of those things government is not very good at, compared to the private sector and free individuals, is learning hard lessons. Case in point: bubbles.

The government loves blowing bubbles more than a small child. The difference is that when a child’s bubbles pop, they don’t erupt with enough force to shake the economic foundations of entire industries, regions, or the planet.

The most famous recent example is the housing crisis and subsequent “Great Recession” of 2008. While the media and Common Core-approved textbooks still blame that crisis on the “greedy bankers,” the reality is that the federal government, with some help from local governments, huffed and puffed and blew up the housing bubble through mortgage guarantees, artificially low interest rates, zoning laws, and pressure on banks to loan to people that could never afford standard 15- or 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

The result was overpriced homes being sold to people with low-to-no down payments and adjustable-rate mortgages. The market finally corrected and the rest is history.

Now, come to find out, the government is doing the exact same thing… again. Stupid is as stupid does. While the government is indeed pursuing some of the same practices in housing market, what caught the attention the Taxpayer Protection Alliance (TPA) is the fact that the same problems are creeping up in the energy sector as well.

A recent report by the TPA, entitled “From Washington to Wall Street: How Government Policies Are Skewing Solar Investments,” details the issue of a looming subprime solar crisis. Several state and federal policies are essentially suppressing market forces in order to incentivize the spread of rooftop solar in the U.S. This is being done through various state-level mandates, payment schemes such as “Net Metering,” and federal loan guarantees to solar companies.

All that these policies do is disguise the risk of solar investments to investors and socializes much of it to the taxpayer. With the upfront cost of rooftop solar installations being so expensive, ranging in the tens-of-thousands of dollars, most Americans would be unable to buy systems outright from solar companies. In fact, most solar companies wouldn’t be able to survive. The infamous Solyndra case shows they struggle even with lucrative subsidies and loan guarantees in place! Regardless, programs like “Net Metering” and investment tax credits reduce the upfront cost to a certain extent.

Beyond that, home solar companies, such as Elon Musk’s SolarCity, are using creative financing schemes to get people to buy solar installations they otherwise couldn’t afford. Beginning to sound familiar?

SolarCity and others are luring homeowners into 20-30 year lease agreements for home solar installations, promising people a life off the grid and the end of utility bills! Kind of like the government’s massive and ongoing propaganda campaign to convince people of all the good that comes with homeownership. Remember what they say about if something sounds too good to be true?

These agreements theoretically provide a revenue stream from lease payments and payments for the electricity created by the installation. To clear up any confusion, it’s essentially as if a utility company built a coal plant on your roof, made you pay to have it there, and then charged you for the power you used from it. The solar companies then take these leases, bundle them, and sell them as securities to investors to help generate funding for more solar investments and, of course, a little off the top for themselves. According to the TPA’s report, in 2013, 22 solar leasing funds generated nearly $3.5 billion in investments. Now there’s nothing illegal about any of this, however that doesn’t mean there’s anything smart about it all either.

Investors aren’t being shown the true risk associated with this business model. Taxpayers assume part of the risk through the aforementioned programs.

These solar lease agreements, just like the adjustable rate mortgages that helped collapse the housing market, have escalator clauses. The monthly payments go up over time. What’s worse than the housing market, these solar installations begin depreciating immediately. At least in the housing market, real estate values can go up. This means people will, if they haven’t already begun to, default on their agreements.

Further, the amount of power generated by these rooftop solar installations is being grossly overstated when sold to homeowners and investors alike. Issues with the intermittency of sunlight (you know, that whole night thing plus those cloud things) and problems with adequate maintenance provisions by the solar companies are creating significant periods of time where solar installations are not producing power and thus not producing revenue.

The TPA report goes on to discuss several other financial issues that may arise. It’s a must read. In short, the problem is that once again the government has created an environment where investors are being duped into securities backed by unreliable assets, in more ways than one, in order to fulfill a political objective. Without the various mandates and taxpayer support, its highly unlikely any savvy investor would engage in this market.

All this makes today’s report about SolarCity all the more curious. It was revealed that Musk’s solar company has been granted several “confidential treatment orders” by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Without getting into too much investor jargon, these orders are usually a way for companies to delay the release of very bad news to the public. Perhaps the solar bubble has already burst.

Published in Culture, Economics, Science & Technology
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  1. user_216080 Thatcher
    user_216080
    @DougKimball

    Though the subsidies have changed and the utilities, through which the subsidies were in part directed, are starting to feel the slack demand, this solar bubble has been in the making for a while.  I wrote about it on ricochet back in 2012 here.  I’m glad to see you’ve taken the baton and have joined the race.

    • #1
  2. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    As long as Republicans exist, none of this is going to change.

    • #2
  3. Ricochet Member
    Ricochet
    @DadDog

    We had friendly, non-pushy salesmen from Vivint.Solar come by last week, trying to sell us a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA): they install, own and maintain the solar panels; we sign a 20-year lease agreement; and they sell us the electricity generated at a much lower rate than our normal utility (Southern California Edison).  They estimated between 30-50% savings on our electric bill.  I asked them to come back this week, after I had done some research.

    That research led me to cancel their return appointment.  Why?  Too many downsides and unanswered questions.

    • Vivint admits — but downplays — the fact that (as Patrick points out here), under the lease, your cost per kWh escalates each year . . . while the panels’ generating capacity steadily declines.
    • What if solar technology continues to rapidly improve, as we’ve seen during the past 10 years?  You’re stuck with this 2015-vintage equipment for 20 years, while your neighbors with newer equipment are generating twice the power at half the cost.
    • Replace your roof now, because you’re going to be stuck with it for 20 years.
    • What if you want to sell your house before the end of the 20-year lease?  Good luck: either the purchaser of your home assumes the rest of your lease, or Vivint removes the equipment . . . and you reimburse them for the balance of the lease.
    • Edison’s not stupid; they will jump in this game soon, and the consumers will benefit.
    • #3
  4. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Great post.

    • #4
  5. Gödel's Ghost Inactive
    Gödel's Ghost
    @GreatGhostofGodel

    Dad Dog:We had friendly, non-pushy salesmen from Vivint.Solar come by last week, trying to sell us a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA): they install, own and maintain the solar panels; we sign a 20-year lease agreement; and they sell us the electricity generated at a much lower rate than our normal utility (Southern California Edison)…

    My wife and I live in LA in a house perfectly oriented for solar. We also did some initial research into the costs and savings a couple of years ago. Our conclusion after about two hours:

    LOLWUT?

    Instead we replaced the roof with some work-bonus money. Then, a few months back, we bought a Nest thermostat. Total not-a-handyman me removed the 40-year-old Honeywell and installed the Nest in about an hour. I had to temporarily turn off a second WiFi router in the house before the Nest would connect to the primary, but then I turned the second router back on with no issues. Now the Nest knows where it is, knows what the local weather is, knows how my wife and I like the house at various times of day and night, and acts accordingly as efficiently as possible. To me, being able to control it with our phones is just a bonus. Recommended.

    • #5
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