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Update On The Ricochet GOP Primary — June Results
Fresh out of the printer are the latest polling numbers from the Data Division at Ricochet (I just made that up. There’s no office. It’s just a couple of guys.) While new candidates continue to enter the race, Ricochet members are largely adhering to their initial preferences among the candidates.
Scott Walker remains the clear favorite for Ricochet members, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz holding on just behind. I have also included Rick Perry below, as he has emerged with enough support to warrant a highlight. In past months, we’ve also seen other candidates — such as Carly Fiorina and Bobby Jindal — enjoy a bump.
The chart below shows Ricochet’s first choice for GOP nominee. I excluded everyone who got fewer votes than Jindal, who was trailing the field with 4.4%.
This chart shows the 2nd favorite choice for GOP nominee.
This last chart shows the second choice for GOP nominee among those who selected Walker as their top choice. In the unlikely case that a story breaks about Walker dashing off to Canada to see a mistress, we know his supporters will move to Rubio.
Where’s Donald Trump?
Looks like the consensus is coalescing around a Walker/Rubio ticket. That makes sense to me. Washington outsider but competent executive at the top of the ticket, with an eloquent US senator rounding out the rest.
-E
We could do a lot worse than Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker.
New York I guess.
Donald Trump blames his poor showing on a Mexican barber.
It would be interesting to learn why there is movement more than a few points one way or another. What will we learn, or have we learned, over the last several months, about any of the four men listed in the first graph, that we didn’t know before?
Interesting question, indeed. Jindal and Paul have been bouncing up and down and Fiorina has had a surprisingly (in my opinion) steady increase in support.
While we had a full list of candidates early in the year I can think some movement occurred as candidates officially entered the race. We had events like CPAC where candidates got a lot of good, and bad, press and other news cycles where candidates were in the limelight for something they said or did.
Interesting that Jeb! Bush, considered so formidable by the pundits, doesn’t even register among the conservative voters of Ricochet.
Can you please give us the margin of error on the headline tracking poll, or give us the sample size so we can estimate it ourselves?
The sample size for this month’s poll was 315, which yields a sampling error of 5.5%.
I remain outside the Ricochet mainstream. I still lean for Jeb.
Can you explain why? For me, the fact that Jeb is even running is embarrassing.