Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Should Jindal Be Kicking Himself Over 2012?

 

Gov._Bobby_Jindal_in_Oklahoma_2015Those who follow my posting obsessively (i.e., weirdos) know that Gov. Bobby Jindal has been my favorite presidential hopeful since 2009. Sadly, my ardor is waning. The complete lack of people who agree with me makes inclined to give up and move on.

That’s too bad. Bobby Jindal has a great story to tell and is a strong conservative with wide experience. His problem is timing: in 2016 he’s running against the strongest GOP field ever. What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

I suspect he would have won the nomination. Remember how desperate we were to find an alternative to Romney? I voted for Santorum in the Michigan primary — a man I didn’t particularly like — just to protest the Romney juggernaut. The polls gave each challenger a bump in turn; heck, we even gave Herman Cain a look. Herman Cain! Bobby Jindal would have swept those jokers aside, swept up the anti-Romney vote, and brought in extra voters on his own. It would have been a cakewalk.

Beating President Obama wouldn’t have been so easy, but I think Jindal could have done better than Romney. Still, Obama’s historic presidency and Jindal’s pencil-necked geekiness — which the progress of years is ameliorating, but would have been an intense negative in 2012 — would probably have combined to deny Jindal the win, just barely. I think.

But even in that event, we’d hardly be worse off than we are now, and Jindal would be among the top picks for 2016.

There are 46 comments.

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  1. Leigh Member

    Actually, I wonder the same about Jeb Bush.

    • #1
    • June 17, 2015, at 9:04 AM PDT
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  2. Troy Senik Contributor

    It seems to me the answer has to be yes. 2012 was wide open for a plausible not-Romney (as evidence by all the implausible not-Romneys who took their turn at the head of the pack). It could’ve been Rick Perry if he hadn’t stumbled. It could have been Tim Pawlenty if he had just stayed in the race. And, had they run, Jindal, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, or Paul Ryan each would have been extremely competitive for the nomination.

    • #2
    • June 17, 2015, at 9:06 AM PDT
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  3. ctlaw Coolidge

    Leigh:Actually, I wonder the same about Jeb Bush.

    Jeb could have boosted Dem turnout to Speaker Pelosi levels.

    • #3
    • June 17, 2015, at 9:27 AM PDT
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  4. Hoyacon Member

    It’s arguable whether the reception was warranted, but Jindal’s 2009 “response” speech hurt him badly, even years later. I suspect that factored into his 2012 decision. As for whether his time has passed, his governance in La. since ’12 has been problematical. That’s on him. IMO, Cabinet Secretary is likely now his ceiling.

    • #4
    • June 17, 2015, at 9:31 AM PDT
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  5. Troy Senik Contributor

    If you’re Jeb, I think the election that really haunts you — and I suspect this will be even more true after he fails to secure the Republican presidential nomination next year — is the 1994 Florida governor’s race. Had he won the office on his first try, he likely would have been the Bush pursuing the GOP nomination in 2000.

    Losing that race made him a better politician. Ironically, it also probably prevented him from ever being president.

    • #5
    • June 17, 2015, at 9:32 AM PDT
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  6. Misthiocracy got drunk and Member
    Misthiocracy got drunk andJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    • #6
    • June 17, 2015, at 10:27 AM PDT
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  7. Troy Senik Contributor

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    Seven times — Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley, Wilson, FDR, Clinton, Bush 43.

    • #7
    • June 17, 2015, at 10:30 AM PDT
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  8. genferei Member
    genfereiJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    My problem with Bobby Jindal is that he has never held a real job. If he can keep kicking the Federal gummint for another 4 years I can forgive that.

    • #8
    • June 17, 2015, at 10:39 AM PDT
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  9. Leigh Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    Seven times — Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley, Wilson, FDR, Clinton, Bush 43.

    Were those all in their first term as governor?

    • #9
    • June 17, 2015, at 10:42 AM PDT
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  10. Profile Photo Member

    Jindal isn’t necessarily out of the 2016, but he certainly has a long way to go yet to be competitive. It could well be that he is hoping to lean on strong debate performances to boost his profile. Whether he performs strongly and whether it boosts him is something that remains to be seen.

    At the moment, we should just be patient.

    • #10
    • June 17, 2015, at 10:52 AM PDT
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  11. Troy Senik Contributor

    Leigh:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    Seven times — Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley, Wilson, FDR, Clinton, Bush 43.

    Were those all in their first term as governor?

    No. Someone will correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Cleveland and Wilson were the only ones elected in their first term as governor — though, if I recall correctly, FDR was in his second two-year term, so it’d be comparable to the first term of most modern governorships (I believe New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states that still have two-year gubernatorial terms).

    • #11
    • June 17, 2015, at 10:54 AM PDT
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  12. Misthiocracy got drunk and Member
    Misthiocracy got drunk andJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Leigh:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    Seven times — Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley, Wilson, FDR, Clinton, Bush 43.

    Were those all in their first term as governor?

    Jindal was in his second term in 2012 although, having been reelected in 2011, he was very early into his second term.

    • #12
    • June 17, 2015, at 11:00 AM PDT
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  13. Troy Senik Contributor

    Misthiocracy:

    Leigh:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    Seven times — Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley, Wilson, FDR, Clinton, Bush 43.

    Were those all in their first term as governor?

    Jindal was in his second term in 2012 although, having been reelected in 2011, he was very early into his second term.

    Yes, that’s right. Piece of trivia: there are three states that elect governors in the year after the midterms and before the presidential elections: Jindal’s Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi. The only cycle that’s rarer is the year after a presidential election — only New Jersey and Virginia do that.

    • #13
    • June 17, 2015, at 11:03 AM PDT
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  14. Leigh Member

    Misthiocracy:

    Leigh:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    Seven times — Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley, Wilson, FDR, Clinton, Bush 43.

    Were those all in their first term as governor?

    Jindal was in his second term in 2012 although, having been reelected in 2011, he was very early into his second term.

    Oh, I remembered that incorrectly. It’s complication enough for Scott Walker that he began running immediately after winning re-election and is trying to carry out budget negotiations from New Hampshire. At this point Jindal would have been running for re-election still; even though it wasn’t competitive that would have been a tough act to pull off.

    • #14
    • June 17, 2015, at 11:12 AM PDT
    • Like
  15. Profile Photo Member

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    You are aware of when Louisiana elects its governors, right. (Hint: this year is Jindal’s term-out year).

    • #15
    • June 17, 2015, at 11:17 AM PDT
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  16. Profile Photo Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.:If you’re Jeb, I think the election that really haunts you — and I suspect this will be even more true after he fails to secure the Republican presidential nomination next year — is the 1994 Florida governor’s race. Had he won the office on his first try, he likely would have been the Bush pursuing the GOP nomination in 2000.

    Losing that race made him a better politician. Ironically, it also probably prevented him from ever being president.

    You seem a little confident with that “fails to secure” comment. Are you thinking what I’m thinking vis-a-vis nominating either governors or Texans for President (namely, forget about the idea for at least the next 20-24 years)?

    • #16
    • June 17, 2015, at 11:22 AM PDT
    • Like
  17. Troy Senik Contributor

    Brad2971:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:If you’re Jeb, I think the election that really haunts you — and I suspect this will be even more true after he fails to secure the Republican presidential nomination next year — is the 1994 Florida governor’s race. Had he won the office on his first try, he likely would have been the Bush pursuing the GOP nomination in 2000.

    Losing that race made him a better politician. Ironically, it also probably prevented him from ever being president.

    You seem a little confident with that “fails to secure” comment. Are you thinking what I’m thinking vis-a-vis nominating either governors or Texans for President (namely, forget about the idea for at least the next 20-24 years)?

    As I said on another thread, I find it very hard to see how Jeb gets the nomination. He just doesn’t have much room to grow. There are a lot of primary voters out there who might be flexible about who they could nominate, but are absolutely inflexible on the point that it will not be Jeb. There’d have to be a pretty even split in support between several other candidates for him to have a lane — and even then it wouldn’t surprise me if voters unified behind someone else to block him. I just don’t see how this ends well for him.

    Re: your calculation, I don’t think being a governor or being from Texas is necessarily a problem — but having a more tangible connection to George W. Bush is. In Jeb’s case, it’s obviously a matter of blood. But I think we also underestimate (for the broader electorate if not for Republican primary voters) how much Rick Perry’s superficial similarities to W. hurt him. I think your LIV looks at him and says “Great — another swaggering, gaffe-prone Texan — what else you got?” Might not be fair, but it’s real.

    • #17
    • June 17, 2015, at 11:30 AM PDT
    • Like
  18. Profile Photo Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Re: your calculation, I don’t think being a governor or being from Texas is necessarily a problem — but having a more tangible connection to George W. Bush is. In Jeb’s case, it’s obviously a matter of blood. But I think we also underestimate (for the broader electorate if not for Republican primary voters) how much Rick Perry’s superficial similarities to W. hurt him. I think your LIV looks at him and says “Great — another swaggering, gaffe-prone Texan — what else you got?” Might not be fair, but it’s real.

    Here’s the thing. Ted Cruz has a similar Texas swagger issue. I think it’s gotten to the point where the nation will elect another Californian before it elects another Texan, AND will likely elect a Floridian before either of them.

    • #18
    • June 17, 2015, at 12:05 PM PDT
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  19. Leigh Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    As I said on another thread, I find it very hard to see how Jeb gets the nomination. He just doesn’t have much room to grow. There are a lot of primary voters out there who might be flexible about who they could nominate, but are absolutely inflexible on the point that it will not be Jeb. There’d have to be a pretty even split in support between several other candidates for him to have a lane — and even then it wouldn’t surprise me if voters unified behind someone else to block him. I just don’t see how this ends well for him.

    It’s easy to see that consolidation happening fairly early on, too. If Rubio wins Florida, presumably Bush is finished anyway no matter how the rest of the field is divided. It’s hard to see how he keeps on at that point.

    But if Bush wins Florida, Rubio is going to consider the benefits of playing kingmaker, just at the moment when the not-Bush voters will feel the urgency of unity. Bush needs the early results to be so mixed that there is no one for him to anoint.

    Rubio and Walker seem to be mutually acceptable to each others’ supporters, and that’s a problem for Bush.

    • #19
    • June 17, 2015, at 12:25 PM PDT
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  20. Misthiocracy got drunk and Member
    Misthiocracy got drunk andJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.: Yes, that’s right. Piece of trivia: there are three states that elect governors in the year after the midterms and before the presidential elections: Jindal’s Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi. The only cycle that’s rarer is the year after a presidential election — only New Jersey and Virginia do that.

    Note to self: Don’t become governor of Louisiana, Kentucky, or Mississippi if I plan to run for president some day.

    ;-)

    • #20
    • June 17, 2015, at 12:44 PM PDT
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  21. Misthiocracy got drunk and Member
    Misthiocracy got drunk andJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Brad2971:

    Misthiocracy:

    Fredösphere: What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

    How often has a governor won the presidency without finishing out their term as governor first?

    You are aware of when Louisiana elects its governors, right. (Hint: this year is Jindal’s term-out year).

    Which is precisely why I want him to run now and why I think it would have been a mistake for him to run in 2012.

    • #21
    • June 17, 2015, at 12:45 PM PDT
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  22. Profile Photo Member

    Leigh:Rubio and Walker seem to be mutually acceptable to each others’ supporters, and that’s a problem for Bush.

    I think this is true and this may be the key to the race. I think Rand Paul has a high floor. Provided he does not implode, he is likely to be a competitor, but it will create a move to rally around someone more hawkish. Although I suspect a Bush candidacy could do that, so could Rubio, Walker or maybe Cruz. And that is the path to victory, I think. The credible alternative to Bush and Paul.

    • #22
    • June 17, 2015, at 12:52 PM PDT
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  23. Troy Senik Contributor

    Brad2971:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    Re: your calculation, I don’t think being a governor or being from Texas is necessarily a problem — but having a more tangible connection to George W. Bush is. In Jeb’s case, it’s obviously a matter of blood. But I think we also underestimate (for the broader electorate if not for Republican primary voters) how much Rick Perry’s superficial similarities to W. hurt him. I think your LIV looks at him and says “Great — another swaggering, gaffe-prone Texan — what else you got?” Might not be fair, but it’s real.

    Here’s the thing. Ted Cruz has a similar Texas swagger issue. I think it’s gotten to the point where the nation will elect another Californian before it elects another Texan, AND will likely elect a Floridian before either of them.

    Maybe, but I don’t think Cruz’s Texas roots are at the core of his struggle. Cruz is a base-only candidate. He sort of has the equal and opposite problem of Bush. Just not much room to grow. And even for a lot of us who are generally sympathetic to him on the issues, the scorched-earth style is a little much.

    • #23
    • June 17, 2015, at 1:00 PM PDT
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  24. Troy Senik Contributor

    Leigh:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:

    As I said on another thread, I find it very hard to see how Jeb gets the nomination. He just doesn’t have much room to grow. There are a lot of primary voters out there who might be flexible about who they could nominate, but are absolutely inflexible on the point that it will not be Jeb. There’d have to be a pretty even split in support between several other candidates for him to have a lane — and even then it wouldn’t surprise me if voters unified behind someone else to block him. I just don’t see how this ends well for him.

    It’s easy to see that consolidation happening fairly early on, too. If Rubio wins Florida, presumably Bush is finished anyway no matter how the rest of the field is divided. It’s hard to see how he keeps on at that point.

    But if Bush wins Florida, Rubio is going to consider the benefits of playing kingmaker, just at the moment when the not-Bush voters will feel the urgency of unity. Bush needs the early results to be so mixed that there is no one for him to anoint.

    Rubio and Walker seem to be mutually acceptable to each others’ supporters, and that’s a problem for Bush.

    Yep, this is pretty close to how I see it too. I’d give a slight advantage to Rubio — Walker might be better in the executive role, but I think Rubio is probably the better candidate. And the Florida connection and the Hispanic background are going to be appealing to people who really want to win this time around.

    • #24
    • June 17, 2015, at 1:22 PM PDT
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  25. Troy Senik Contributor

    Quinn the Eskimo:

    Leigh:Rubio and Walker seem to be mutually acceptable to each others’ supporters, and that’s a problem for Bush.

    I think this is true and this may be the key to the race. I think Rand Paul has a high floor. Provided he does not implode, he is likely to be a competitor, but it will create a move to rally around someone more hawkish. Although I suspect a Bush candidacy could do that, so could Rubio, Walker or maybe Cruz. And that is the path to victory, I think. The credible alternative to Bush and Paul.

    High floor, yes, but a hard ceiling. As you suggest, I think the second that Paul starts looking serious it inspires a blocking coalition of people who don’t trust him on national security.

    • #25
    • June 17, 2015, at 1:23 PM PDT
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  26. Profile Photo Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.:High floor, yes, but a hard ceiling. As you suggest, I think the second that Paul starts looking serious it inspires a blocking coalition of people who don’t trust him on national security.

    As long as the blocking coalition does not look to Jeb, most people will come together, minus the grousing that always accompanies these things. If it’s Jeb, be prepared for a wave of despair on the Right to rival Election Night 2012. That with all of the potential in the current field, we couldn’t escape putting a Bush on the ticket for the 7th time in 10 elections.

    • #26
    • June 17, 2015, at 1:40 PM PDT
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  27. Troy Senik Contributor

    Quinn the Eskimo:

    Troy Senik, Ed.:High floor, yes, but a hard ceiling. As you suggest, I think the second that Paul starts looking serious it inspires a blocking coalition of people who don’t trust him on national security.

    As long as the blocking coalition does not look to Jeb, most people will come together, minus the grousing that always accompanies these things. If it’s Jeb, be prepared for a wave of despair on the Right to rival Election Night 2012. That with all of the potential in the current field, we couldn’t escape putting a Bush on the ticket for the 7th time in 10 elections.

    Yeah, that’s right. And I don’t they think they will. If they do, however, that’s the point at which Walker and Rubio go all Thelma and Louise.

    • #27
    • June 17, 2015, at 1:43 PM PDT
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  28. Leigh Member

    Troy Senik, Ed.: Rubio and Walker seem to be mutually acceptable to each others’ supporters, and that’s a problem for Bush. Yep, this is pretty close to how I see it too. I’d give a slight advantage to Rubio — Walker might be better in the executive role, but I think Rubio is probably the better candidate. And the Florida connection and the Hispanic background are going to be appealing to people who really want to win this time around.

    On paper, but I wonder… Walker is a very savvy, skilled campaigner, perhaps more so than Rubio. If his lead in Iowa holds up, he has the first chance to break through, which could actually matter this time around.

    His disadvantage is the day job, though. Rubio might have some tough votes, but Walker is still trying to govern a state with infinite possibilities for things to go badly wrong.

    • #28
    • June 17, 2015, at 2:41 PM PDT
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  29. Mendel Member
    MendelJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I hate to say it, but I’m not convinced that there ever was or will be the “right” election cycle for Jindal.

    Standing out in a primary field requires a candidate to have a combination of charisma, ambition, and “oomph”, and sadly I have yet to see enough of these characteristics in Jindal. Which is too bad, because I admire him in many ways – but experience suggests that without an ability to burn a few barns and willingness to jab a few elbows, other qualifications become irrelevant in the race to become president.

    Jindal seems likely to be a Tim Pawlenty candidate: great on paper, a non-starter in real life. Unfortunately.

    • #29
    • June 17, 2015, at 3:23 PM PDT
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  30. Fricosis Guy Listener

    Leigh:

    Troy Senik, Ed.: Rubio and Walker seem to be mutually acceptable to each others’ supporters, and that’s a problem for Bush. Yep, this is pretty close to how I see it too. I’d give a slight advantage to Rubio — Walker might be better in the executive role, but I think Rubio is probably the better candidate. And the Florida connection and the Hispanic background are going to be appealing to people who really want to win this time around.

    On paper, but I wonder… Walker is a very savvy, skilled campaigner, perhaps more so than Rubio. If his lead in Iowa holds up, he has the first chance to break through, which could actually matter this time around.

    His disadvantage is the day job, though. Rubio might have some tough votes, but Walker is still trying to govern a state with infinite possibilities for things to go badly wrong.

    These are my top two. Like Leigh, I think Walker’s an underestimated campaigner. He got his first set of stumbles out of the way before his formal announcement. And, of course, , which means he hasn’t even gotten his announcement boost yet.

    I wonder how willing each would be to take the number two slot. Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker would be tough tickets to beat.

    • #30
    • June 19, 2015, at 6:27 AM PDT
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