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June having dawned, we’re beginning to get a decent sense of what the (enormous) GOP presidential field is going to look like. By my tally, we’re probably going to end up with approximately 15 relatively prominent candidates. That’s four sitting governors — Christie, Kasich, Jindal, and Walker; four former governors — Bush, Huckabee, Pataki, and Perry; four sitting senators — Cruz, Graham, Paul, and Rubio; Santorum, the lone former senator; and the two who’ve never held elected office, Carson and Fiorina. I know everyone’s focused on how you get all these people onto one stage, but I’ve been thinking about another dynamic: there are 14 people in that group who aren’t going to be the Republican nominee. What do they do next? Here are my thoughts for each of these candidates should they fail to win the big prize. Add yours in the comments.
It’s interesting to me how politics in the US is (seemingly) a game for rich folk to play after they’ve made their money. Up here in the Great White North politics is (mostly) for middle-class folk who wanna build up a political resume they can resell down the line for a law partnership, a tenured professorship, or a corporate directorship.
There are one or two cabinet ministers who didn’t even technically finish their bachelor’s degrees until after they were elected, and serving a term (or two, if they’re lucky) as an MP will look good on their law school or business school applications.
Gov. Pataki can live off of his daughter’s cartoon royalties.
Walker could go back to school and finish up that degree….
This was a great read. I think you hit it pretty accurately for all of them. The one I might quibble with is Ben Carson. I think his real aim is public name recognition to sell his books. After the presidential race i’m sure he’ll have another book, and then another, and then another.
My other hunch is that if Bush doesn’t get the nomination, he’ll be aiming for Secretary of State. Or VP.
No arguments here. I think you are right on about Rubio. He is young, he could run for Pres. in 2020 or more hopefully 2024 as the successor to a successful Cruz administration!
I agree, except for Cruz. Three more thoughts:
Christie: He’s not my favorite candidate, but he’d be great on TV, especially when he no longer has anything to lose from letting it all hang out.
Cruz: Can’t see him staying in the Senate: too much faux collegiality required. I’d love to see him on the Supreme Court (where he could become Scalia’s successor as scourge of the simple-minded left). But it’s unlikely to happen.
Rubio: If he fails to become president, he’s sure to run and win the governorship–then he’ll run in eight for twelve years for president again. I saw a President Rubio in our future, now or later.
How about all the losing candidates finish out their current terms in office and then return to society and contribute as members of the business community and society in general, living under the laws they helped put in place? A radical idea? Too radical?
Ben Carson – Next Surgeon General?
If Ted Cruz is not the Presidential nominee or the Veep, and a Republican wins in 2016, look for him as a replacement for Clarence Thomas or Antonin Scalia. A young, brilliant Ted Cruz on the Supreme Court would be a great thing for America.
Carly’s angling for Veep, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that go to Susana Martinez or Jan Brewer.
Probably true — and, alas, a waste of his talents. Carson’s political insights rarely reach beyond the level of cliches. We need another half-qualified pundit like we need a hole in the head. The man has genuine gifts elsewhere. I wish he would use them.
Good lord, David. What do you think this? Some sort of republic?
I can’t see any Republican president opting into the kind of confirmation fight that would take place if Ted Cruz were nominated for the Supreme Court. Nor do I especially relish the notion on the merits — given the track record of politicians on the bench in recent history, I’d just assume pass.
If it’s radical then I’m ready to throw bombs for it. I like Glenn Reynolds’ idea of a revolving door tax.
Sadly, no. I have been disabused of that idea for a while now.
I believe it was US Grant who said there is nothing to do for a former president than take them out back and shoot them. Then he went and wrote a best-selling biography.
I suspect the same is true of our current crop of also-rans.
I love that idea as well.
Better still, replacement for Ginzburg. The balance of the Court is still to the left of the public.
Let’s hope so. Carly’s entire record is one of convincing rhetoric and poor results. Her success to date is a testament to our general readiness to credit someone who tells us what we already know. There is an essential weakness to her, and we entertain her candidacy at our peril.
Jeb will be our first ambassador to reopened Cuba.
That’d be too much justice. The Earth would crack.
Does anyone take the “next in line” position for 2020 or 2024?
Bush won’t. If he can’t pull it off now, he won’t next time. Even if he’s a very close second.
Walker could. If he lost narrowly to Bush or Rubio, I’d expect him to try to finish out his term in Wisconsin on a strong note… and get ready for the next race. Alternatively, maybe he decides he really likes being governor of Wisconsin and does indeed run for a third term.
Rubio easily could be “next in line.” But with Florida’s governorship available, he doesn’t have to be second — or even close — to maintain future viability. He just needs to leave a decently good impression. Of course, then he has to actually be a good governor.
But what will Donald Trump do in a post political career? I’m thinking he’s going into the clergy.
I agree. Forget about politics. The best way that Ben Carson can serve his country is by training the next generation of brain surgeons. And Chris Christie? People are going to think this is a slam over his weight, but it’s not. When I close my eyes and think of Chris Christie, I picture a guy who could be very successful running a chain of pizzerias in New Jersey. George Pataki should just go away and enjoy his retirement.
Assuming the balance of the senate doesn’t shift, seeing as Reid got rid of the filibuster on judicial nominations the Republicans could force him through. Wait, did we give that filibuster back yet?
I’m too depressed to finish this comment.
Yes, I agree. I think Rubio would be next in line. But Walker might make a very good V-P for someone, especially Bush.
Let me put on my prediction hat. The GOP ticket is going to be Bush-Walker or Walker-Bush.
LOL, Christie could be twirling the pies and Pataki could be behind the counter. ;)
Realistically, I’m not good at predictions so I won’t try. Unrealistically, the nation falls apart, Scott Walker is declared King in the North and the armies of the North sweep southwards with fire, sword and fried cheese, while our enemies flee from our song of battle.
I don’t disagree that the Court would be well-served by replacing Ginsburg with a hard-core conservative, but I think that the nomination battle would be easier if Cruz were replacing Scalia or Thomas. (In fact, Scalia got on the bench after the Democrats had exhausted themselves fighting Rehnquist. They didn’t have another nomination battle in them.)
I don’t know… I think either of them would try to avoid an all-white-male ticket. I can see how the primary process might nonetheless make Walker a good choice for Bush, but not the reverse. I still think Walker as a nominee picks Susana Martinez, unless he picks Rubio.