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Dueling Statistics
This will make sense to you when you listen to the podcast that Rob, James, Claire, and I recorded an hour ago, but here are some stats on youth unemployment in France. Courtesy of Trading Economics, a chart:
Claire?
Published in Foreign Policy, General
Darn it, Peter. I was hoping for something more like this:
For comparison—assuming you can trust the US unemployment numbers, which is questionable:
Some of the French attitude towards work and money can be understood through the following: In French, they say you “win” money (gagner de l’argent). It is there for the taking and those who get rich are merely luckier at playing the game. In the US, you “make” money. It has to be created through work.
No, they’re not dueling, I’m afraid. Peter is right. I looked it up after we recorded the podcast. The numbers on youth unemployment really are that high. What I don’t understand is this: the overall unemployment rate has been hovering around 10 percent. It looks–from my cursory examination–as if being under the age of 24 is economic doom in France. But reaching the age of 24 is somehow magic.
Why would that be? Anyone have any insight? Some more context here.
Gagner can be translated as earn, and usually is. To win money would be better translated as remporter de l’argent. You can also faire (make) de l’argent in French.
Tom,
Results not statistically significant but lethal.
(I’m still laughing, nice one Tom.)
Regards,
Jim
Some of this is definitional: There’s a very significant difference between the youth unemployment rate and the youth unemployment ratio. In other words, it seems as if many young French people are in university or job-training.
For what it’s worth, France does not seem to have anywhere near as many young, unemployed, young people milling about as Turkey does. France doesn’t seem to have as many people in that age bracket, period.
True but the first translation of gagner is to win. To earn became a second meaning probably from usage.
Worse, if you really get down to it, you “win silver”.
That seems even worse, since the etymology of remporter is “retake”.
So, money you earn is “won” and money you win is “retaken”.
< devil’s advocate mode = on >
On the other hand, “get” or “gain” would also be etymologically-validtranslations for gagner. So it could be just as valid to translate as “getting silver” or “gaining silver” rather than”winning silver”. (Still not as virtuous as earning it, but not quite as bad as winning it.)
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/gaaignier#Old_French
< devil’s advocate mode = off >
I hate to nit-pick (no I don’t) but wasn’t Burr a well-known duellist? Seems his stat should be higher.
;-)
It is good to see that you have finally conceded on our old demographic argument.
Hi Claire. Re “… being under the age of 24 is economic doom in France. But reaching the age of 24 is somehow magic.”
Someone will have to delve into the Footnotes on the French data, but I believe that EU countries calculate something called Youth-NEET. Youth- Not in Education, Employment, or Training for ages 15-24. This number is the Youth Unemployment.
If you age 25 and aren’t actively looking for work…. You just aren’t counted anywhere anymore. You are out of the Labor Force. The Unemployment Rate is calculated as ( 1 – (Number Employed / Number in the Labor Force)). ie the Unemployment Rate doesn’t include those who aren’t looking for work. If you are still NEET at age 25 and aren’t actively looking for work…. You just aren’t counted anywhere anymore. No magic involved.
We can even argue about simple charts.
If I had charted this one, I think I’d have given Hamilton -1. Depends on how you look at it.
Babies, France has them. 20-24 year olds? Not so many.
Pro tip: unemployment rate in French is taux de chomage, not rat de chomage–I remember learning that at a certain Dijon dinner party in 1984. Because rats always have a job available.
Good to know. I almost made that faux pas.
… I would love to listen to that podcast that you allegedly recorded this morning, except that it is not on the main feed or anywhere else.
Should be posted soon, from what I understand.
… I would love to listen to that podcast that you allegedly recorded this morning, except that it is not on the main feed or anywhere else.
There’s nothing more fun in a foreign language than discovering, mid-sentence, that you never learned a key word necessary to complete that sentence.
Youth unemployment across the EU / Europe is about twice the rate of unemployment itself, no?
Some countries do better, others worse. Germany, Austria, Netherlands–around 10%, Spain, Italy, Greece–around 50%. Imagine the political consequences of living in a country where youth means school or unemployment for quite a number of years. Imagine the politics of students in these countries. What generations are these countries creating?
This is all, I’d say, expected. Not some kind of new development or radical social / economic departure. I do not know that anyone expects changes in the next few years…
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Youth_unemployment,_2013Q4_(%25).png
The more I look at these statistics, the more puzzled I am. I fear I’ll need to sit down with someone who really understands what they’re trying to measure–and why–before I can say anything intelligible about them.
My intuition–for what it’s worth–is that the youth unemployment ratio is a more useful measurement than the youth unemployment rate. That would track with what I see and hear–that unemployment among that age cohort is very high and deeply demoralizing, but not as catastrophic as the higher number would suggest.
But I need to really understand what they’re measuring, why, and how.
I’m not the man you’re looking for, Miss Claire, all I’ve got is a bit of thinking about what you’re saying. I hope an expert will set me straight, soonest.
How many of these young people are there in the age cohort? (The denominator for the unemployment ratio) They keep moving in & out of course, but take a decade or two & see how many there are.
How many, then, are in school, how many out (only these latter go to make up the denominator of the unemployment rate)? How many in jail, for that matter?
What do these youths look like in terms of social classes? How wealthy are the parents of the youths, the neighborhoods where they live, &c.?
How have these figures changed in the last decade or two, especially since 2008?
Hi again Claire,
I made hash of my earlier attempt. ( I can’t write about math with the clarity of your dear-old Dad.). Permit me another go-round…
I believe that EU countries calculate something called Youth-NEET. Youth- Not in Education, Employment, or Training for ages 15-24. This number is the Youth Unemployment figure. It is a different calculation than the more general unemployment rate.
Consider …
The numerator of this NEET ratio is the ENTIRE cohort age 15-24 LESS those Employed, in Education or a Training program. The remainder are those NEET – Not Employed, In Education or Training. Makes no matter if you are looking for work or not …if you are age 15-24 you are accounted for somewhere in the numerator.
The denominator is the ENTIRE cohort age 15-24. Makes no matter if you are looking for work or not.
This is NOT how the more general Unemployment rate is calculated. This uses the Labor Force rather than the entire population.
Consider how this is calculated. First they calculate an Employment Rate. This has in the numerator all those employed. The denominator is the sum of those employed plus those not employed but actively seeking work – the Labor Force.
Once they have this employment ratio, they subtract it from 1.00 to get the Unemployment Rate.
The important difference between this and Youth-NEET is that the calculation of the Unemployment Rate DOES NOT count those unemployed and not looking for work. If you are not employed but not looking for work you are just not accounted for in the Unemployment Rate at all!
Recall, the denominator of the Employment Ratio is the Labor Force. Not the entire population. The Labor Force will always be a smaller number than the entire population. With a smaller denominator, the Employment Ratio gets bigger. As the Employment Ratio gets bigger, the Unemployment Ratio gets smaller. (Since by definition they have to add up to 1.00). Other things being equal, as more people drop out of the Labor Force, the Unemployment Rate goes down.
So, if you are not employed but not looking for work you are just not accounted for in the Unemployment Rate at all! But you ARE counted in Youth-NEET. If they actually did a NEET calculation for the country as a whole (instead of just for the 15-24 cohort) it would show a much higher ratio than the official unemployment rate … Because it would count those who have dropped out of the Labor Force.