Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. A Disappointing Dark Horse

 

john-kasichI live in Ohio, where Gov. John Kasich just won reelection by a landslide against a scandalized opponent. I know he’s been mentioned as a possible candidate, but I’ve always discounted him out of complete indifference.

He hasn’t been a bad governor by any stretch of the imagination, but he did make one huge offensive mistake by going around his own party’s super-majorities to take the expanded Medicaid bait-and-switch from Obamacare. Other than that, I don’t really care for his folksiness and he doesn’t strike me as charismatic, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the electorate will agree.

I recently went to lunch with my adviser. Being a professor, he’s right around where you’d expect him politically. He’s basically a moderate Democrat. He even knocked on doors to get Obama reelected. But being a physicist, especially the experimental kind, he does have a certain level-headed nuanced way of interpreting things and an appropriate deference to evidence, even when it goes against party orthodoxy.

So it struck me when he confidently asserted that John Kasich would be the next president. His rationale was that Hillary just didn’t seem to have what it takes and the lack of any “strong” GOP contenders. This initially struck me as ridiculous, but then I remembered again that I’m not the electorate. Bad things happen when I let my preferences color who I think the rest of America will accept.

My adviser has family in Wisconsin. He scoffed at Scott Walker as “crazy,” which I think means “Tea Party Conservative,” but I know better than to brush off his impressions even if I disagree with them. I’m afraid his gut reactions are much much closer to the average voter than my own. Other than that, Bush is “Bush,” so he’s a non-starter. Any other obviously strong candidates are sitting congressmen which, if we’re being honest with ourselves, would require a historic shift in presidential dynamics.

So, as much as I don’t like it, I’m afraid my adviser might be right. The other major thing Kasich has going for him is he would be guaranteed to win Ohio, and very likely take Pennsylvania as well. That being said, watch out for my longtime dark horse pick for the Democratic nomination, Andrew Cuomo. If it’s him vs. one of our senators, I would err on the side of presidential precedent.

There are 66 comments.

  1. Arahant Member

    Mike H: That being said, watch out for my longtime dark horse pick for the Democratic nomination, Andrew Cuomo. If it’s him vs. one of our Senators, I would err on the side of Presidential precedent.

    I really doubt Hillary will be the nominee. There’s a lot of time between now and then. Cuomo may have a little too much baggage, though. I don’t know who it will be, I just doubt Hillary. Obama was a sitting Senator in his first run, but the GOP put up a sitting Senator against him. I think you’re right that a Democrat with executive experience is likely to beat a GOP Congresscritter.

    • #1
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:10 AM PST
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  2. Steve C. Member

    Will Cuomo have enough time after Hillary drops out?

    • #2
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:10 AM PST
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  3. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H

    Steve C.:Will Cuomo have enough time after Hillary drops out?

    Will anyone?

    • #3
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:11 AM PST
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  4. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I must say I’m surprised that neither John Kasich nor Mike Pence has gained any traction.

    There is obviously some structural demand for centrist Republicans, but at the moment all of that air seems to be getting sucked up by Jeb Bush and Chris Christie – two men with huge negatives.

    I’m surprised that the purported cabal of rich donors and GOP strategists hasn’t decided to back one of these two centrist midwestern governors who, while certainly vanilla, pose a much lower risk of being booed off the dais than Bush or Christie.

    • #4
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:14 AM PST
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  5. Arahant Member

    I just had a very twisted strategy thought. It’s probably not in anybody’s mind. What if the Democrats wanted to lose the Presidency to gain back the Congress? Voters often will go for balance, so that Congress and the President are at odds. Maybe the Democrats want to run an unpopular candidate like Hillary so that they are more likely to pick up Congressional seats?

    No? Stupid Idea? (Probably.)

    • #5
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:14 AM PST
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  6. Southern Pessimist Member

    I saw Kasich give an interview recently where he was asked what his foreign policy would look like and he said it would be somewhere between George W Bush and Barack Obama. I though that was a horrible answer and basically meaningless. I get so tired of the endless pandering and preening by the jokers running for President. I just wish we could have one extensive debate just before the convention and then a national referendum to pick the nominee. I am sick of the process and it hasn’t even started.

    • #6
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:24 AM PST
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  7. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Mike H:…the lack of any “strong” GOP contenders, which initially struck me as ridiculous, but then I remembered again that I’m not the electorate.

    While this cycle’s crop of Republican candidates appears to be shaping up better than the last few cycles, I don’t think it will turn out to be the battle of the rockstars we have been promised by conservative pundits over the last few years.

    It looks like the field will consist of first-term senators, a bunch of governors who each has a major Achilles’ heel, and Scott Walker. And while Walker certainly looks good on paper, he has yet to demonstrate whether he can build his national persona beyond conservative platitudes + “I stared down public unions and won.” (Yes, I am very cynical.)

    Again, this is an above-average field for the GOP, which is depressing in and of itself. But a few new entrants with deeper resumes and fewer negatives might not be a bad idea.

    • #7
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:29 AM PST
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  8. Arahant Member

    Mendel:(Yes, I am very cynical.)

    That only means that you have been paying attention.

    • #8
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:31 AM PST
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  9. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Arahant:

    Mendel:(Yes, I am very cynical.)

    That only means that you have been paying attention.

    If I paid attention I would probably become suicidal.

    • #9
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:32 AM PST
    • 1 like
  10. SkipSul Coolidge
    SkipSul Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I think Kasich will make a go at the nomination, but he’s letting the big players beat each other up for now. Kasich dabbled his toes in the water in 99/2000 (I have a campaign button from then), and has very carefully played both sides here in Ohio. He puts himself up as the calm moderate against the much more conservative Ohio legislature, while utterly ignoring the Dem politicians here when he’s not appropriating their issues. He took a stand AGAINST right to work (pleasing to rust belt dems) while also fixing state finances and quietly thwarting abortion clinics (pleasing to social conservatives and financial conservatives). In other words, he cannot be easily stereotyped by the press.

    Remember, Bill Clinton played a similar game in 91/92 against much better known opponents.

    • #10
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:43 AM PST
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  11. SkipSul Coolidge
    SkipSul Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Cuomo will not get the nomination, he’s got way too much dirt and baggage. The current federal corruption investigations into New York’s governance could likely take him down.

    • #11
    • March 3, 2015, at 10:44 AM PST
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  12. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    skipsul:Remember, Bill Clinton played a similar game in 91/92 against much better known opponents.

    Of course, charisma was equally as important to Clinton’s electoral victory as triangulation. Does Kasich have any skills in that regard?

    • #12
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:02 AM PST
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  13. SkipSul Coolidge
    SkipSul Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Mendel:

    skipsul:Remember, Bill Clinton played a similar game in 91/92 against much better known opponents.

    Of course, charisma was equally as important to Clinton’s electoral victory as triangulation. Does Kasich have any skills in that regard?

    Eh, sorta. He’s no Bill, instead he’s rather more gruff. Instead of Bill’s slick southern charm he’s got that midwestern “spare me the BS and get to the point” attitude. You won’t find him playing golf during a crisis, more likely to be shouting at someone.

    • #13
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:05 AM PST
    • 1 like
  14. iWe Reagan
    iWe Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Mike H:

    Steve C.:Will Cuomo have enough time after Hillary drops out?

    Will anyone?

    If she dies, it is going to be amazing to see the media doing everything in its power to make a New Name universally recognized.

    Right now, every Republican running has more name recognition than not-Hillary.

    • #14
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:15 AM PST
    • 1 like
  15. Arahant Member

    Mendel:

    skipsul:Remember, Bill Clinton played a similar game in 91/92 against much better known opponents.

    Of course, charisma was equally as important to Clinton’s electoral victory as triangulation. Does Kasich have any skills in that regard?

    Slick Willy had more than just charm. He had a bad boy aura to him.

    Kasich? Not on either count. Mind you, I’ve been hoping he would be President some day since he was an Ohio Congressman whose budget proposals were getting more votes than President Bush’s (41). I think his fiscal sense is very strong, but try selling that to soccer moms.

    • #15
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:18 AM PST
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  16. iWe Reagan
    iWe Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Imagine, for example, Christie or Kasich as the Dem candidate.

    • #16
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:25 AM PST
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  17. Arahant Member

    iWc:Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Imagine, for example, Christie or Kasich as the Dem candidate.

    Or who was that former governor and ambassador to China?

    • #17
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:27 AM PST
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  18. SkipSul Coolidge
    SkipSul Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    iWc:Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Imagine, for example, Christie or Kasich as the Dem candidate.

    Kasich would never jump to the Dems, the animosity there runs deep.

    • #18
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:28 AM PST
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  19. iWe Reagan
    iWe Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    skipsul:

    iWc:Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Imagine, for example, Christie or Kasich as the Dem candidate.

    Kasich would never jump to the Dems, the animosity there runs deep.

    OK, but someone might. Or it is O’Malley. Somehow.

    • #19
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:32 AM PST
    • 1 like
  20. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    John Kasich is not in any way shape or form a credible candidate. He was very vulnerable after the rocky start his administration got off to. The statewide initiative rebuke wounded him greatly.

    His huge victory last November said less about him than the weakness of the Ohio Democratic Party. Ed FitzGerald was their dream man? A former FBI agent who saw no value in a drivers license? Who picked a tax cheat for a running mate that he had to dump? A man caught playing rumpy-bumpy in a parking lot at 4am with a woman not his wife?

    Kasich did not win re-election it was handed to him. He shouldn’t delude himself.

    • #20
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:34 AM PST
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  21. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    iWc:Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Never.

    American political views are so disparate that there is a forshortening effect when partisans on one side view the other one.

    There are constant remarks on Ricochet about how Jeb Bush should run as a Democrat, because from the perspective of a fairly strident conservative it is hard to discern a meaningful difference between the two. Yet Jeb Bush is far to the right of even the most moderate potential Democrat candidate.

    Similarly, I have noticed that many on the right cannot grasp the fact that most liberals don’t like Obamacare because they find it to be far too conservative (as well as the converse: liberals who can’t imagine why conservatives hate such a “free market” program such as Obamacare).

    • #21
    • March 3, 2015, at 11:46 AM PST
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  22. SkipSul Coolidge
    SkipSul Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    EJHill:John Kasich is not in any way shape or form a credible candidate. He was very vulnerable after the rocky start his administration got off to. The statewide initiative rebuke wounded him greatly.

    His huge victory last November said less about him than the weakness of the Ohio Democratic Party. Ed FitzGerald was their dream man? A former FBI agent who saw no value in a drivers license? Who picked a tax cheat for a running mate that he had to dump? A man caught playing rumpy-bumpy in a parking lot at 4am with a woman not his wife?

    Kasich did not win re-election it was handed to him. He shouldn’t delude himself.

    Well, do remember that he did not endorse or campaign for the statewide issue (it was a form of right to work for those of you outside of Ohio). It was damaging to him in the short run, but not in the longer game.

    • #22
    • March 3, 2015, at 12:09 PM PST
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  23. iWe Reagan
    iWe Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Mendel:

    iWc:Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Never.

    American political views are so disparate that there is a forshortening effect when partisans on one side view the other one.

    Democrats want, above all, to WIN. At all costs, they desperately need to keep power. They would rather win with a hugely flawed candidate than lose with a guaranteed loser. Katich, at least, is acceptable to unions. Christie is acceptable to a great many in a Blue state.

    I cannot see Jeb winning as a Dem. But Christie? It is possible, especially if Dems find themselves with NOBODY with a late Hillary dropout.

    • #23
    • March 3, 2015, at 12:20 PM PST
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  24. SkipSul Coolidge
    SkipSul Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    iWc:

    Mendel:

    iWc:Do any of us think that, if Hillary drops out late, that a left-wing R switches parties to snag the nomination?

    Never.

    American political views are so disparate that there is a forshortening effect when partisans on one side view the other one.

    Democrats want, above all, to WIN. At all costs, they desperately need to keep power. They would rather win with a hugely flawed candidate than lose with a guaranteed loser. Katich, at least, is acceptable to unions. Christie is acceptable to a great many in a Blue state.

    I cannot see Jeb winning as a Dem. But Christie? It is possible, especially if Dems find themselves with NOBODY with a late Hillary dropout.

    The thing is, I don’t think Dems can admit to themselves (at least on national level) that Hillary is a loser. They, like a bad fiction author, insist she’s just, [cue valleygirl voice] like totally awesome, because they keep telling us she is – they cannot say why she is, she just is dammit!

    Yet Hillary is well nigh loathed by any number of midwestern Dems.

    • #24
    • March 3, 2015, at 12:30 PM PST
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  25. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    iWc:

    Democrats want, above all, to WIN. At all costs, they desperately need to keep power.

    Right, but I don’t think they would consider it to be a victory if the person they elected did not come from their own team. The key word in your quote is actually want, not win – it’s an emotional battle for many of them. And the emotion of victory would be gone if they could only achieve it by using “the enemy.”

    I think this is why Christie could not switch over – regardless of his policies (many of which are not Democrat-friendly), he has attacked Democrats far too often for them to accept him. The only party-switchers who are welcomed by either side are the ones who were overly and overtly critical of their own side for years. None of the current candidates fit that mold.

    • #25
    • March 3, 2015, at 12:37 PM PST
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  26. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    skipsul: Well, do remember that he did not endorse or campaign for the statewide issue (it was a form of right to work for those of you outside of Ohio). It was damaging to him in the short run, but not in the longer game.

    But he damaged himself in other ways. Common Core (Right Wing Hysterics!) and Medicaid expansion (Go and talk to them about how much smaller government they really want!) make him Jeb Jr.

    • #26
    • March 3, 2015, at 12:41 PM PST
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  27. iWe Reagan
    iWe Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member