Young and In Trouble

 

This map, from Pew researcher Conrad Hackett, tells an interesting story:

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The median age in the U.S., he points out, is 37. The vast swath of green in central Africa — ground zero of the Ebola epidemic — is the youngest.

Meanwhile, the next youngest place on earth is Afghanistan, where the median age is 18.1.

The rest of the world is conveniently mapped here — but, SPOILER ALERT! — you’re in the old part. Not the oldest — that’s Canada and Europe. But old.

Two interesting data points, one worrying, one simply baffling:

Worrying: Places in trouble — where disease and civil war and extreme politics are the order of the day — are the youngest.

Baffling: China and the U.S. are about even in the median age department. But, of course, China has almost quadruple the population of the United States. Which suggests that the widely quoted insight, “China will get old before it gets rich,” may be correct. But we’ll be getting old along with them. Looking at the map, though, it’s hard to spot another country — maybe Brazil (median age: 30.7) or India (median age: 27) — that’s showing economic growth and has a young population to fuel its continued expansion. So here’s what’s baffling: where, in the future, will the growth come from?

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  1. EThompson Member
    EThompson
    @

    RushBabe49:The problem with Japan is their culture. They heavily protect their old-style economy which relies on small farms and Mom-and-Pop businesses. They are also actively hostile to immigration of any sort, and their young people are so bummed out many never get married or have kids at all. 

    The problem with Japan is that it’s simply a geographically small country thus making real estate, education, and even food costs exorbitantly high- the old supply and demand theory. No other city in the world reminds me more of NYC than Tokyo.

    • #31
  2. EThompson Member
    EThompson
    @

    Rachel Lu:Good reasons to 1) have babies and 2) think about immigration policy. The problem, obviously, is that our country isn’t really set up to absorb immigrants productively. Too much welfare, too much regulation. We turn the young and hungry into the dysfunctional and unemployed. Could we find ways to turn that around?

    Having “lots of babies” is fine if you can afford to bring them up properly.

    Spain, Italy, France are having fewer children because of inflation. Period. Want a higher population growth rate? Start voting for economically sound policies that enable people to afford them.

    • #32
  3. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    James Of England:

    Zafar:There’s a negative correlation between the education and social equality of women and the number of children they have, which in turn impacts on the long term age ratio. There’s a positive correlation, however, with wealth and longevity.

    That seems hard to believe in a world where such a large chunk of the patriarchal world is China, with so very few children. It sounds like the kind of statistic that would make sense if you count the world by countries rather than individuals, which means that instead of being much smaller than China, Africa causes China to disappear.

    It’s relative, James.  Chinese women are better educated, on average, than African women (or Indian women).  And short life spans means less time to have babies – iow, the population ‘turn over’ may be faster as well.

    • #33
  4. Fricosis Guy Listener
    Fricosis Guy
    @FricosisGuy

    Paul A. Rahe:Rob, if I read the map of Africa correctly, the only place on the continent with an older population, averaging about 30 on average, is Tunisia. As it happens, I once spent a bit of time there. It is like a lower-middle-class Italy. Everyone drives a crummy Fiat, but everyone has a car. The agriculture is wonderful; there is no oil. Most Tunisians are secularist. It is a nice place in a part of the world that is not so nice.

    Every place my parents were stationed in Africa is “green.” If you think that the worst countries in Central or South America is poor, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

    • #34
  5. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    Zafar:

    James Of England:

    Zafar:There’s a negative correlation between the education and social equality of women and the number of children they have, which in turn impacts on the long term age ratio. There’s a positive correlation, however, with wealth and longevity.

    That seems hard to believe in a world where such a large chunk of the patriarchal world is China, with so very few children. It sounds like the kind of statistic that would make sense if you count the world by countries rather than individuals, which means that instead of being much smaller than China, Africa causes China to disappear.

    It’s relative, James. Chinese women are better educated, on average, than African women (or Indian women). And short life spans means less time to have babies – iow, the population ‘turn over’ may be faster as well.

    Chinese women are better educated, but so are Chinese men; China having four times the GDP/ capita makes a difference. The adult illiteracy rate for Chinese men is 5%, while women clock in at 13%. In India, the figures are closer to 25% and 50%.  India has more women in prominent positions, both political (including President and Prime Minister) and outside. China doesn’t have anything like that, the hated Madam Mao being the closet example.

    Just as in Europe it’s the misogynist Russians who avoid breeding, in Asia it’s the guys who maintain the highest rates of sex-selective abortions. My view may be biased by the fact that in a job I ended up not taking I’d have had a female boss in India, while the Chinese law firm I worked at had no prominent women, but I think I have stats to support it.

    • #35
  6. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    Paul A. Rahe: he only place on the continent with an older population, averaging about 30 on average, is Tunisia. As it happens, I once spent a bit of time there.

    A Night In Tunisia?

    • #36
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