Are Republicans Going To Blow It Again?

 

More evidence that Republicans are flailing without a plan of action. Nate Silver* now has Democrats pulling close to even in the battle for the Senate:

Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.

Similarly to 2012 — and even 2010 — Republicans are trending toward loss in the closest races, and can’t clinch victory in what should be gimme states. Even Alaska and Nebraska Kansas are no guarantees.

Might Democrats be benefiting from strong voter outreach in these states — perhaps the residue of President Obama’s “ground game” in 2012? You could make that case in North Carolina, where two polls released on Monday showed a smaller gap between registered and likely voters than most other states that have been polled this year.

The Republican party is not modernizing quickly enough. How much longer will they lag and lose before they get the picture? After we lose the presidency in 2016?

If Republicans can’t show that they’ve learned from, and moved passed, the Bush Era by the time they cobble together control of Washington, they’ll either stay lost in the wilderness or quick be sent back to it. That means a larger government, higher taxes, and enormous debt for all of us. Anything less than +8 seats this year should be viewed as an embarrassment. Right now we’ll be lucky to snag six.

*I know many people think Silver is a Democratic shill, but his track record is too good to ignore. He calls ‘um like he sees ‘um.

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  1. Frozen Chosen Inactive
    Frozen Chosen
    @FrozenChosen

    The premise of your post presupposes that there is a message Republicans can use to get people to vote for them.  What if people aren’t listening to politicians no matter what they say?  What if the people hear the GOP message but prefer to vote for Democrats anyway?

    Just like those who watch Fox News, most of us here at Ricochet are aging baby boomers who see the world as it was 20-30 years ago.  I believe the world has changed – drastically.  So has the electorate, which has changed dramatically in the past 10 years.

    It’s probably easier to rail against the GOP “establishment” than face that reality.  I hope I’m wrong but the fact that the American people elected somebody as incompetent as Barack Obama – twice! – tells me I’m probably not.

    • #31
  2. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    If it’s not close, they can’t cheat. — Hugh Hewitt

    Well, it’s going to be close in too many places. Colorado is one of them. I’m not a consumer of mass media, but my kids are. I overheard a Udall campaign ad against Cory Gardner, and you know what it said? Gardner would limit women’s access to birth control, given the chance. We’re talking about birth control??!!!! Makes me want to slap someone for the idiocy, and I’m not (usually) a violent person.

    I think Gardner fought back pretty intelligently. He got behind a GOP initiative to make The Pill over-the-counter, putting Planned Parenthood in the awkward position of opposing easier access to birth control for women.

    However, the lie is halfway ’round the world before the truth has laced up its boots. I don’t expect the LIVs to understand what’s going on here (Democrats buying votes by handing out taxpayer funded birth-control, while Republicans actually try to increase your individual liberty; PP opposing anything that might reduce its supply of customers). It’s “free” stuff versus freedom, and Americans have pretty much decided what they want. I don’t blame Republicans for that. I blame the Left.

    • #32
  3. Petty Boozswha Inactive
    Petty Boozswha
    @PettyBoozswha

    I stand behind no one in my contempt for the MSM; I am positive they give the Dems a 6 or 7 point bump before the opening bell in every election. But sometimes we give them enough ammunition to use against us. Here in NC Tillis is Speaker of the State House, and is getting slammed for tax breaks on yachts and millionaires while – according to nonstop teacher’s union commercials – students are having to share textbooks. Unfortunately there is a filament of truth in their propaganda. Our local county newspapers,  not the MSM but local Andy Griffith type folks here in Jackson and Macon counties, have run articles on two or three young teachers in each county that have resigned to take jobs across the state line in Georgia or Tennessee with five figure raises.  I have two sons attending NC State in Raleigh, every trip I am gobsmacked by the ostentatious lobbyist lifestyles that Tillis’ brand of Republicanism  has enabled. I’m really depressed.

    • #33
  4. Bartholomew Xerxes Ogilvie, Jr. Coolidge
    Bartholomew Xerxes Ogilvie, Jr.
    @BartholomewXerxesOgilvieJr

    inmateprof:I live in North Carolina, and the enthusiasm for voting for Thom Tillis is about as high as the enthusiasm for getting a root canal. Kay Hagan should be a sitting duck, but she has hammered Tillis with ad after ad, and Tillis has now just started to respond. He’s portrayed as a right wing extremist, but he’s actually very moderate, so the left is out to vote against him, and the right is not very thrilled to support him at all.

    Yep. I have to admit that Hagan’s attack ads are devastatingly effective, even though I know they’re misleading at best and outright dishonest at worst. They’ve focused on telling stories about how Tillis (apparently singlehandedly) has slashed education budgets while cutting taxes “for the rich”; noble teachers look at the camera and talk about how much this is hurting The Children. I can’t even think of any Tillis commercials; the Tillis campaign must be buying dramatically less advertising, and their ads just aren’t memorable.

    Meanwhile, a lot of Tea Party conservatives were so disappointed when Brannon lost the nomination that they have vowed not to support Tillis. I assume they’ll either stay home or throw their votes away on some write-in candidate. I am not optimistic about NC.

    • #34
  5. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Bartholomew Xerxes Ogilvie, Jr.:Meanwhile, a lot of Tea Party conservatives were so disappointed when Brannon lost the nomination that they have vowed not to support Tillis. I assume they’ll either stay home or throw their votes away on some write-in candidate. I am not optimistic about NC.

    If you run into anyone like this, please tell them to at least be honest enough to vote for Kay Hagan.  Because if you aren’t helping the Republican nominee, you’re helping the other side.

    • #35
  6. user_379896 Coolidge
    user_379896
    @Mountie

    Like it or not the last time there was any creativity was 1994 with Newt Gingrich. The contract with America was a simple concise tight message that everybody could get behind and everybody could explain. We haven’t seen that for 20 years. Newt was my congressman, and there were many many times when he was not my cup of tea. But like it or not he understood the moment in 1994, crafted a message, popularized it, and won. The message ever since then is “we’re not the other guy” (eg we’re not Gore, we’re not Kerry, we’re not Obama). That’s not a durable message.

    • #36
  7. Petty Boozswha Inactive
    Petty Boozswha
    @PettyBoozswha

    Jim Flenniken:Like it or not the last time there was any creativity was 1994 with Newt Gingrich. The contract with America was a simple concise tight message that everybody could get behind and everybody could explain. We haven’t seen that for 20 years. Newt was my congressman, and there were many many times when he was not my cup of tea. But like it or not he understood the moment in 1994, crafted a message, popularized it, and won. The message ever since then is“we’re not the other guy” (eg we’re not Gore, we’re not Kerry, we’re not Obama). That’s not a durablemessage.

    I agree 100% – look who’s up recently; Scott Brown is even with a very popular opponent in New England because he’s been aggressive on the illegal alien issue. Where are we underperforming? North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan, where our only campaign topic is less taxes with nothing for the little people.

    • #37
  8. Black Prince Inactive
    Black Prince
    @BlackPrince

    dittoheadadt:

    Black Prince:

    Mike H:

    Tuck: If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win. And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    I question anyone knows how to fight. Advice from people on our side usually comes in the form, “We need to figure out how to do this.Wherein, no one even has a actionable suggestion on how to accomplish it. Makes me question if there’s a viable answer.

    Quite right…and I agree that there is no viable answer .

    I disagree. I think there are myriad viable answers. What we’re missing are enough smart leaders capable of fighting to win and possessing genuine conservative inclinations.

    I don’t think that any of the answers that you suggested will work and smart leaders (see Stephen Harper) cannot change the moral and intellectual degeneration of a country overnight.  It took a long time to get to this point and it will take a long time with a consistent and sustained effort to reverse the damage. The problem isn’t a lack of leadership or strategy (although God knows we don’t have either)…the problem has to do with the fundamental character of the American people.

    • #38
  9. user_549556 Member
    user_549556
    @VinceGuerra

    I wouldn’t worry about Alaska. The establishment Republican (Dan Sullivan) won the primary and he’s just squishy enough to win over the “subsidize me now” crowd in rural AK. Mark Begich is one of Obamas Senate pets and everyone here knows it. His ads are following the Obama playbook of attacking the opposition since he can’t run on his record, minus the charisma. It’s not a lock, but I’m not worried at all.

    • #39
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