Are Republicans Going To Blow It Again?

 

More evidence that Republicans are flailing without a plan of action. Nate Silver* now has Democrats pulling close to even in the battle for the Senate:

Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.

Similarly to 2012 — and even 2010 — Republicans are trending toward loss in the closest races, and can’t clinch victory in what should be gimme states. Even Alaska and Nebraska Kansas are no guarantees.

Might Democrats be benefiting from strong voter outreach in these states — perhaps the residue of President Obama’s “ground game” in 2012? You could make that case in North Carolina, where two polls released on Monday showed a smaller gap between registered and likely voters than most other states that have been polled this year.

The Republican party is not modernizing quickly enough. How much longer will they lag and lose before they get the picture? After we lose the presidency in 2016?

If Republicans can’t show that they’ve learned from, and moved passed, the Bush Era by the time they cobble together control of Washington, they’ll either stay lost in the wilderness or quick be sent back to it. That means a larger government, higher taxes, and enormous debt for all of us. Anything less than +8 seats this year should be viewed as an embarrassment. Right now we’ll be lucky to snag six.

*I know many people think Silver is a Democratic shill, but his track record is too good to ignore. He calls ‘um like he sees ‘um.

There are 39 comments.

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  1. Tuck Inactive
    Tuck
    @Tuck

    “The Republican party is not modernizing quickly enough.”

    I don’t think that’s the problem.  The problem is relentless propagandizing through the MSM that still is the source of most American’s news.  No one in the Republican Party has a clue about how to message against that.

    The Democrats stay relentlessly on-message, and coordinate extensively, laws be damned.

    If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win.  And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    • #1
  2. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    Tuck: If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win.  And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    I question anyone knows how to fight. Advice from people on our side usually comes in the form, “We need to figure out how to do this.” Wherein, no one even has a actionable suggestion on how to accomplish it. Makes me question if there’s a viable answer.

    • #2
  3. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    You need a simple and unified message that you constantly drum into people. It needs to be one that they (the voting public) instinctively identifies as true, even if they are hesitant to publicly embrace or acknowledge. The problem Republican’s have is that they are all over the place. When they focus they tend to do well with public sentiment as seen on Obamacare and immigration.

    What I am saying isn’t really very radical or new. It doesn’t have to be. People aren’t that different today. The only thing that needs up dating is the means by which the relentless message is spread. The Republicans need a leader to coordinate a unified message.

    • #3
  4. WI Con Member
    WI Con
    @WICon

    Guess they shouldn’t denigrate and marginalize their base (I believe our Establishment betters call that “tactics”).

    Can anyone tell me what the ‘theme’, the unifying message of 2014 is for the GOP?

    1994, 2010 – those ‘felt’ like waves. Sorry guys, this doesn’t feel like much at all.

    • #4
  5. HeartofAmerica Inactive
    HeartofAmerica
    @HeartofAmerica

    I never counted on it anyway. Just another letdown by the party and the people if we fail to grab the senate, especially given what is happening out there.

    • #5
  6. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    I don’t live in a battle ground state(SC) so I can’t say how the Republicans are fighting. Anyone out there that does?

    • #6
  7. Black Prince Inactive
    Black Prince
    @BlackPrince

    Mike H:

    Tuck: If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win. And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    I question anyone knows how to fight. Advice from people on our side usually comes in the form, “We need to figure out how to do this.Wherein, no one even has a actionable suggestion on how to accomplish it. Makes me question if there’s a viable answer.

    Quite right…and I agree that there is no viable answer . The problems are many, but the slow march of Marxist indoctrination of the American population over the past 70-odd years has finally taken it’s toll. The sad reality is that the intellectual and moral quality of the American people isn’t what it once was and we can’t count on them anymore to do the right thing even after all other avenues have been exhausted. Logic and truth are irrelevant. Facts have no meaning. We have lost the ability to make sensible decisions in the interest of defending ourselves, our families, our communities and our country. Yes, it’s that bad. What can be done? I have no idea.

    • #7
  8. liberal jim Inactive
    liberal jim
    @liberaljim

    Does it really make a difference?  Is the GOP the lesser of two evils? – Yes  Is the GOP the solution to the country’s problems? – No  There is still a high level of discontent in the country which should benefit  the party out of power.  Two weeks from the election one might be able to start to make something approaching an educated guess.

    • #8
  9. Nick Stuart Inactive
    Nick Stuart
    @NickStuart

    An example of how Republicans don’t know how to fight. Darlene Senger in Illinois 10 against Bill Foster. Foster is an entirely reliable vote for Obama/Pelosi agenda. He’s vulnerable on many fronts,

    For just one example:  energy policy. Everybody buys gas, groceries, and electricity. The cost of these goods is high and going higher directly as a result of the policies Foster endorses and defends. Yet you can search Senger’s literature and website in vain and you won’t find it mentioned. The issues that are mentioned are addressed vaguely and not tied to Foster’s record in any way.

    Yes, the district is +D (don’t know by how much) and she doesn’t want to frighten the horses so to speak by tackling (for example) immigration or education. But the message comes down to the decades-old GOP work-elephant “Vote for me, I’m not as stinky as the other guy.”

    Which is essentially the platform the Senate candidate Oberweiss is running on against Durbin. When Oberweiss shows up that is, the only place you’re likely to see him is on a milk carton.

    Very disappointing because I’m actively campaigning for Senger. She’s currently my state rep, and she’s been a good state rep. Foster is, IMHO, a carpet-bagging Leftist clown who richly deserves to lose. Senger’s just listening to someone, G*d knows who, who’s coaching her to go low key. And she’s not actively taking the fight to Foster, at least that I’m able to see.

    • #9
  10. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    Here’s a thought. The polls seemed to move towards Democrats right after Obama announced action against ISIS. Could this be in response to that? If so, it might be temporary.

    • #10
  11. Nick Stuart Inactive
    Nick Stuart
    @NickStuart

    More generally, the GOP top leadership, and elected officials from top to bottom, seem to have no idea that they’re on a timer. The GOP has two more election cycles 2014, and 2016 to get itself together. This involves doing several things:

    • Campaign like you mean it, fight to win. For the Left, it’s a street fight, fists boots and all. You’re not going to win this with golf outings and lunch at the DuPage Club (local Illinois reference).
    • Don’t go around sticking your finger in the eye of the “base.” No post-election comprehensive immigration reform for example.
    • Don’t f it up by being so in love with the sound of your own voice you say really stupid things (Akin, Mourdock, O’Donnell).
    • #11
  12. Songwriter Inactive
    Songwriter
    @user_19450

    Nick – You should be running the GOP, dude.

    • #12
  13. kmtanner Inactive
    kmtanner
    @kmtanner

    Has Nate Silver ever made bad or wrong predictions?

    • #13
  14. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    kmtanner:Has Nate Silver ever made bad or wrong predictions?

    I think he might have done poorly in the first midterm election he tried to predict, maybe 2006? I believe his model has gotten infinitely better since then and the races that were even slightly in favor of one candidate have gone that way. He always has the probability “out,” but as far as I can tell he hasn’t had to use it much lately.

    • #14
  15. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    For some reason the Republican establishment is afraid to nationalize the election. Local media still exists, but it is swamped by national media. The individual candidates have to focus locally, but R’s in safe districts should be making the push and argument on the national level for a Republican Congress. Maybe it is because there is so much split within the party that they cannot come together on a focused message. What Republicans have to realize is that the Democrats will be nationalizing the election around the “War on Women” which for some reason the Rs have not figured out how to counter.

    • #15
  16. genferei Member
    genferei
    @genferei

    Yes.

    (* goes back to read post and comments *)

    For those calling for a simple and unified message: do the Dems have one? What is it?

    And with no-one willing to embrace my repeated calls for actively seeking to hasten the end of the MSM, how are Repubs supposed to drum such a message into the rubes voters?

    • #16
  17. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    genferei: And with no-one willing to embrace my repeated calls for actively seeking to hasten the end of the MSM…

    How, through mind meld?

    • #17
  18. hawk@haakondahl.com Inactive
    hawk@haakondahl.com
    @BallDiamondBall

    Tuck:“The Republican party is not modernizing quickly enough.”

    I don’t think that’s the problem. The problem is relentless propagandizing through the MSM that still is the source of most American’s news. No one in the Republican Party has a clue about how to message against that.

    The Democrats stay relentlessly on-message, and coordinate extensively, laws be damned.

    If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win. And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    Lots know how to message against that.  Unfortunately, they are reviled by the GOP establishment.

    • #18
  19. user_385039 Inactive
    user_385039
    @donaldtodd

    Here the ads against the Republican center on his treatment of women in a business he operated. Whether true or not, the low information voter might be incited to vote on an emotion (perfect for the liberals who operate well in that realm). If Republican, Tea Party, libertarian, and conservative anger is matched by the anger of women against Republican candidate, will it flatten the race out?  No idea. We’ll see in a couple of months.

    • #19
  20. genferei Member
    genferei
    @genferei

    Mike H:

    genferei: And with no-one willing to embrace my repeated calls for actively seeking to hasten the end of the MSM…

    How, through mind meld?

    Or reading this and this and this and this and this and…, for example.

    • #20
  21. inmateprof Inactive
    inmateprof
    @inmateprof

    I live in North Carolina, and the enthusiasm for voting for Thom Tillis is about as high as the enthusiasm for getting a root canal.  Kay Hagan should be a sitting duck, but she has hammered Tillis with ad after ad, and Tillis has now just started to respond.  He’s portrayed as a right wing extremist, but he’s actually very moderate, so the left is out to vote against him, and the right is not very thrilled to support him at all.

    Now the (R) candidates in “Gimme” states like Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, and Kansas (yes, Kansas) are neck and neck with liberals.  This should not happen.  The base is turned off.  No one is giving money or knocking on doors.

    2016 is going to be worse because we have ten seats to defend and some in blue states.

    • #21
  22. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    Once upon a time someone addressed these deficiencies.  But it was just the proverbial tree falling in the woods.  And here we are, 2 wasted years later and no better off.

    • #22
  23. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    Mike H:

    Tuck: If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win. And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    I question anyone knows how to fight. Advice from people on our side usually comes in the form, “We need to figure out how to do this.” Wherein, no one even has a actionable suggestion on how to accomplish it. Makes me question if there’s a viable answer.

    Well, not exactly “no one.”

    • #23
  24. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    Black Prince:

    Mike H:

    Tuck: If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win. And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    I question anyone knows how to fight. Advice from people on our side usually comes in the form, “We need to figure out how to do this.Wherein, no one even has a actionable suggestion on how to accomplish it. Makes me question if there’s a viable answer.

    Quite right…and I agree that there is no viable answer .

    I disagree.  I think there are myriad viable answers.  What we’re missing are enough smart leaders capable of fighting to win and possessing genuine conservative inclinations.

    • #24
  25. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    dittoheadadt:

    Black Prince:

    Mike H:

    Tuck: If you’re not fighting, you’re not going to win. And I see no evidence the Republicans are fighting.

    I question anyone knows how to fight. Advice from people on our side usually comes in the form, “We need to figure out how to do this.Wherein, no one even has a actionable suggestion on how to accomplish it. Makes me question if there’s a viable answer.

    Quite right…and I agree that there is no viable answer .

    I disagree. I think there are myriad viable answers. What we’re missing are enough smart leaders capable of fighting to win and possessing genuine conservative inclinations.

    So, the problem isn’t viable answers, it’s viable people to execute those answers? …Good?

    • #25
  26. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    Mike H: So, the problem isn’t viable answers, it’s viable people to execute those answers? …Good?

    Well, yeah, I think that’s been self-evident for years now.

    • #26
  27. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    genferei:

    Mike H:

    genferei: And with no-one willing to embrace my repeated calls for actively seeking to hasten the end of the MSM…

    How, through mind meld?

    Or reading this and this and this and this and this and…, for example.

    You’re much more prolific than I, but I’ll add this.

    • #27
  28. user_1152 Member
    user_1152
    @DonTillman

    Perhaps Ricochet could help.  Not directly, as I’m sure there are all sorts of reasons that Ricochet can’t function as part of a political party, but by providing a way for conservative political organizations to link up to Ricochet members functioning as a think tank to advise on strategy and tactics in a non-public environment.

    My own interest is in applying Systems Theory concepts to political strategy, where it is possible to set up a positive feedback process that naturally grows itself.  Which is one reason I wrote that Moore’s Law article earlier this year.

    • #28
  29. PsychLynne Inactive
    PsychLynne
    @PsychLynne

    Don Tillman:Perhaps Ricochet could help. Not directly, as I’m sure there are all sorts of reasons that Ricochet can’t function as part of a political party, but by providing a way for conservative political organizations to link up to Ricochet members functioning as a think tank to advise on strategy and tactics in a non-public environment.

    My own interest is in applying Systems Theory concepts to political strategy, where it is possible to set up a positive feedback process that naturally grows itself. Which is one reason I wrote that Moore’s Law article earlier this year.

    Like, like, like.

    Completely intrigued by the Systems Theory concepts in politics—despite my lack of knowledge!

    • #29
  30. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Mike H:Here’s a thought. The polls seemed to move towards Democrats right after Obama announced action against ISIS. Could this be in response to that? If so, it might be temporary.

    I think the cause of the shift is correct.  Obama has stopped being totally adrift playing golf while the world burns.  I don’t know if is temporary or if it gives the Democrats room to breath and seize the moment.  I know that this isn’t the moment for Republicans to get complacent.

    • #30
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