What’s the Conservative Sleeper Issue of 2016?—Troy Senik

 

I may have mentioned this before here on the site — I was recently reminded that I’ve been hanging around these parts for nearly three and a half years, matching herpes for both persistence and intrusiveness —but I’ve never forgotten a piece of trivia Ed Gillespie (then Counselor to President Bush) shared with a group of us speechwriters during the 2008 campaign: the single biggest fundraising issue for the RNC during that cycle — the one that could inevitably galvanize conservative checkbooks — was the Law of the Sea Treaty.

Despite the fact that it was virtually unknown to the press and the wider GOP establishment, the underlying issue of surrendering a chunk of national sovereignty lit a fire under the base. It’s forgotten now, but Mike Huckabee’s emphasis on the issue during the pre-primary period was one of the factors that shifted his campaign into high-gear. There was a limit, of course, to how far Huckabee could ride that one issue, but let us not forget that the feelings stirred up during that campaign would ultimately block the treaty’s adoption four years later.

During the recent Ricochet meetup in Charlotte, as talk turned to the possibility of Jeb Bush running for president in 2016, I floated a theory — essentially off the top of my head — that one of Bush’s difficulties might be that opposition to Common Core (which he supports) could play precisely the same role in 2016. Looking at the huge debate that’s erupted in the press this week after Louis C.K. went on an anti-CC tirade on Twitter, I’m only more convinced.

This is precisely the kind of issue that sneaks up on the political class; one that irks everyday Americans down in their bones, but that seems so obviously beneficent to managerial types as to not even merit serious debate (recall Secretary of Education Arne Duncan — usually one of the few sober figures in the Obama Administration — dismissing Common Core criticisms as the clucking of “white suburban moms”). 

What do you think? Is Common Core likely to be a sleeper issue in 2016? What other relatively minor issues could you see taking an outsized role in the fight for the GOP nomination. 

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  1. robertm7575@gmail.com Member
    robertm7575@gmail.com
    @

    Here are three great pieces that you might want to read:

    http://thefederalist.com/2014/03/06/if-anything-common-core-teaches-kids-to-hate-the-constitution/

    http://thefederalist.com/2014/03/14/big-business-targets-common-cores-band-of-mothers/

    http://thefederalist.com/2014/03/31/the-film-common-core-educrats-dont-want-you-to-see/

    • #31
  2. user_199279 Coolidge
    user_199279
    @ChrisCampion

    Leigh:

    But while I think Tom overstates it, I do have a problem with the federal involvement, though it’s old news. Race to the Top put real pressure on states to go along, and without that some states now having second thoughts would probably have rushed a little less quickly into implementation.

    While I suppose there might be areas where it is appropriate (say border security) I am generally deeply uncomfortable with the idea of the federal government using federal funds (or the witholding thereof) in a carrot-and-stick approach to get the states to do what they want them to do. Obviously it’s not outright coercion and I believe Texas is doing just fine despite defying Arne Duncan. But it’s not healthy for the Republic. Many Common Core supporters I’ve read seem oblivious to that concern.

     It is coercion.  The drinking age and federal highway funds analogy comes to mind here.  Federal dollars are already deeply intertwined in state education budgets.  If they don’t play the game, they don’t get the dollars – and they all want dollars.

    • #32
  3. user_82762 Inactive
    user_82762
    @JamesGawron

    Troy,

    I think you have something here.  At the grassroots level people are nauseated by Common Core.  Hey, the same people who are screwing up your child’s education are now going to screw up everyone’s health care in the country.

    It could be a real theme.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #33
  4. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    I saw a pro-Common Core commercial during FNS this morning.  My question is who is funding these pro-Common Core commercials?  The teacher unions?  It seems to me that the rank and file members of the union are opposed to it because of the testing requirements.  Is it the progressives like Soros?  Obama’s organizing for America? Bloomberg?

    I just don’t see the big lobby for Common Core.

    • #34
  5. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    Z in MT:

    I saw a pro-Common Core commercial during FNS this morning. My question is who is funding these pro-Common Core commercials?…

    I just don’t see the big lobby for Common Core.

     Bill Gates.  

    I don’t know about the commercials, but the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is a major player.  Common Core is a “moderate” cause — if you really liked NCLB, you’re probably pro-CC.  The further-left progressives join the more conservative in opposing it.  Sometimes even for similar reasons!  The teachers’ unions actually don’t like Secretary of Ed Arne Duncan very much.  Some more conservative groups like the Thomas B. Fordham Institute strongly support it.

    Chris Campion:

    It is coercion… Federal dollars are already deeply intertwined in state education budgets. If they don’t play the game, they don’t get the dollars – and they all want dollars.

    That’s ESEA/NCLB.  I wouldn’t quite describe Race to the Top as coercion, it was more of a bribe.  It was a competition in which not every state that tried even got the money, and some states felt quite free to say “no, thanks” — notably Texas — and are doing fine.

    • #35
  6. Vance Richards Inactive
    Vance Richards
    @VanceRichards

    Yes, get rid of Common Core and then . . . what? Replace it with another huge federal program with a different cutesy name and a new set of arbitrary requirements?

    • #36
  7. Fricosis Guy Listener
    Fricosis Guy
    @FricosisGuy

    Butters:

    The sleeper issue is crony capitalism and corporate welfare. Which candidate will be the first to call for an end to corporate bailouts, guaranteed loans, and subsidies?

    Any candidate that does this will lose out on millions in corporate donations to their campaigns, and have the full power of the Chamber of Commerce turned against them.

    But it’s also the best way to rebrand the party and distinguish oneself from the other nominees.

    I’m with this 100 percent. The GOP must protect real free enterprise, not the parody it has become. If, as a candidate, you find yourself on the attack, ask the attackers: “which of your handouts are you trying to protect?” 

    There’s a case for restoring local control of education, but it must be made clearly and carefully. Also, recent polling hints that anti-Common Core messages may not be particularly effective. “Standards” sound awfully good to most voters, while the Common Core objections I’ve heard don’t always ring true (and I have a 3rd-grader in a CC state).

    • #37
  8. Karen Inactive
    Karen
    @Karen

    Making Common Core an issue in the primaries is a hard sell. The incentive to adopt CC to receive Race To The Top federal funding puts the blame on states. Even if it’s unpopular, CC still will seem like another well-intentioned, but poorly conceived education plan like No Child Left Behind. I dislike Common Core, but I this a state-level debate, not a primary one. At this rate, I think CC will die on the vine.

    • #38
  9. Karen Inactive
    Karen
    @Karen

    Western Chauvinist:

    You know what would get me excited? Someone promising to undo EO 10988 allowing public employees to unionize. The only thing that might appeal to me more would be a promise to ban automatic withholding. Everything else is small ball.

    Seriously. I get depressed that Republicans always seem to be looking for incremental changes that do almost nothing to stem the leftist tide. This “repeal and replace” mantra makes me heartsick. I prefer “drive a stake through its heart and bury it in a vat of garlic” and “implement a market approach that prohibits any federal agent from coming between you and your doctor.”

    But, back to the PEUs, the middle class may be shrinking in America, but the real change is its composition. Public “servants” are overpaid and are displacing private sector workers in the middle class. This is a huge problem. We’re growing the apparatchik class. What are Republicans prepared to do about it?

    Problem is your claims aren’t true. Public sector employees aren’t overpaid and the public employee unions aren’t the bogeyman you’d like them to be, which is why this hasn’t gone anywhere.

    • #39
  10. Jager Coolidge
    Jager
    @Jager

    Nick Stuart:

    The people concerned about Common Core are already going to vote Republican. And if they were seriously concerned about their children’s education, they wouldn’t have them in government schools to begin with.

     “white suburban moms” are a group that Republicans still need to focus on. Wendy Davis in Texas is focusing on this group as a constituency she needs to win and the “pay equality” issue that the Democrats are pushing is meant to attract, at least in part,  white suburban women.  People concerned with Common Core may be the independents or swing voters Republicans need to sway.

    You may have meant this as a throw away line but I do not think that people “seriously” concerned with their children’s education wouldn’t have them in “government schools”. In my area people choose their homes based on the schools.  I live in fly over country and there aren’t that many private schools. Contrary to your belief the privates schools do not always provide a better education. Further some private schools are using common core and others may be forced to by their State.

    • #40
  11. GKC Inactive
    GKC
    @GKC

    Education begins in the home and what my children and I do together, and the fact is that the homework my son and daughter are bringing home as a result of Common Core makes the task more difficult, because I sometimes cannot understand it.  It becomes frustrating.  The entire thing will die a slow death.  South Carolina just repealed it.  Once again look to the South for some sort of reclamation of what we once were.

    • #41
  12. Owen Findy Inactive
    Owen Findy
    @OwenFindy

    Western Chauvinist: There are no representatives of the people at the bargaining table with public sector unions.

    Words:
    Yet another word trick The Left benefits from, pointed out by John Derbyshire in one of his “Radio Derb” podcasts:  what are called public-sector, or public-employee “unions” are more accurately called “lobbies”.  They lobby, not employers, but the government, for favors and money.

    Not sure if it’ll do us any good to try and change the language….

    • #42
  13. user_129539 Inactive
    user_129539
    @BrianClendinen

    Fred Cole:

    3. Troy, I love ya, baby, but Jeb Bush’s problem is that his last name is Bush and I’m not the only one who is all set on presidents named Bush for this lifetime.

     Don’t forget his wife, who his second biggest issue and the primary reason he has not run for any political office since leaving the Governs Office.

    • #43
  14. user_280840 Inactive
    user_280840
    @FredCole

    Brian Clendinen:

    Fred Cole:

    3. Troy, I love ya, baby, but Jeb Bush’s problem is that his last name is Bush and I’m not the only one who is all set on presidents named Bush for this lifetime.

    Don’t forget his wife, who his second biggest issue and the primary reason he has not run for any political office since leaving the Governs Office.

     I have exactly zero information about his wife.  She is a non-entity in my mind.

    • #44
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