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  1. Duane Oyen Member
    Duane OyenJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    A times such as these we must ask ourselves: “What would Guy DeLisle say about this?”

    • #1
    • May 25, 2010, at 2:55 AM PDT
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  2. Profile Photo Member

    The Korea situation is such a tremendous, colossal tragedy it makes one want to cry sometimes. For such a people, with a common language, culture, heritage and history over millennia, to be divided so sharply against themselves, is nothing short of heartrending. And all for the megalomania of one tiny family, empowered by that ideology from Hell that is Communism.

    • #2
    • May 25, 2010, at 2:59 AM PDT
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  3. Profile Photo Member

    I suspect N Korea will fall of its own accord much like East Germany. In fact it might have already but both China and S Korea don’t want it to – they saw what the economic impact was on West Germany and know this case would be much worse. The “bad old days” are stilll very fresh in the minds of both China and South Korea.

    • #3
    • May 25, 2010, at 3:14 AM PDT
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  4. Dave Carter Podcaster

    James, Doug Mataconis’ article is especially illuminating, highlighting as it does the unpredictable nature of the North Koreans. The aging Kim King Il gives no reassurance of rationality either. Add to that the nuclear factor, and we have a rogue power that can engage in an act of war and evidently call everyone’s bluff. No stronger illustration is needed why our toothless approach to Iran’s nuclear ambition is a disaster in the making.

    But we will go on reducing our defenses and weakening our resolve, …and the void we leave will be filled by much darker forces.

    • #4
    • May 25, 2010, at 4:56 AM PDT
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  5. oleneo65 Inactive
    oleneo65Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Is there ever a good time to defend one’s country?

    • #5
    • May 25, 2010, at 5:45 AM PDT
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  6. Rob Long Founder

    Frank, I think you and bvilleyellowdog are right on the mark — it is a shame, and also an almost unsolvable problem. A unified Germany still isn’t a totally digested thing — unemployment in the old East is way, way higher than in the old West — but what’s worse, even during the worst days of the Soviet empire, there wasn’t mass starvation of the kind we’ve seen in North Korea.

    The South Koreans haven’t made up their minds, really, what has to happen. (It’s going to be awfully expensive, whatever it is. And disruptive. And probably violent.) The Chinese have a border policy that would make Arizona blush — they don’t want millions of emaciated North Koreans streaming across the border. Into an area, Dongbei, with a lot of ethnic identification with the old Koryo empire. So, it’s going to be trouble. Bad trouble. I have a theory: the amount of energy and blood it takes to create a country — Yugoslavia after WW1; North Korea after the Korean War — comes back out when it spins apart. Call it the Conservation of War or something.

    Incidentally, a few years ago, I goofed around on the Chinese/North Korean border. Looks like this:


    • #6
    • May 25, 2010, at 5:54 AM PDT
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  7. Oxybeles Inactive

    Unless one is to claim that the sinking on a South Korean naval vessel is not an act of war because it was in North Korean Territorial Waters, which is not what the North is claiming, it is difficult to view this provocation in any other light.

    The tepid response by the Obama Administration is appalling. Perhaps if a nuke were used to destroy Seoul, maybe then the White House would realize that the hostile intent of North Korea.

    Lack of a timely and severe response will only encourage more provocative acts by tyrants.

    • #7
    • May 25, 2010, at 6:47 AM PDT
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  8. Duane Oyen Member
    Duane OyenJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Don’t kid yourselves- the ROK and the 2nd ID, et al, could pacify and free up the PRK in a few weeks with little problem, the worst issue being the conventional artillery deployed in caves north of the 38th parallel. But fly over those areas and drop ordnance, including scatterable mines, and send some UAVs by to shoot missiles into some caves after the first locating volley; that noise would stop very fast. The only reason nothing is done is political- the ROK doesn’t have the stomach for even that possible risk.

    • #8
    • May 25, 2010, at 7:55 AM PDT
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  9. Profile Photo Member

    I don’t want to defend Obama’s response (I promise! I will criticize him by the end of this post! Don’t attack yet!), but we shouldn’t forget North Korea has the bomb and an adequate ballistic delivery systems. There is very little the United States or South Korea can do when Seoul’s and Tokyo’s existence hinge on the whims of a madman.

    All the more unforgivable the apathy and impotence towards Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If North Korea can survive unchecked belligerence for decades because it has the bomb, how much more dangerous will Iran be when it has Tel Aviv, New Delhi, our bases in Afghanistan and Iraq, and eventually the capitals of Europe within its range? Iran won’t be threatening nuclear holocaust for food aid, they will be doing so for geopolitical influence.

    • #9
    • May 25, 2010, at 8:52 AM PDT
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  10. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron MillerJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    If South Korea truly won’t go to war without the United States, then the war will either not happen or it will begin incidentally. Whether that war is warranted or not, I strongly doubt Obama will commit to any military action beyond our current ones as long as we’re waiting for Israel to strike Iran. Nobody knows how that will unfold. But, even if he’s no ally of Israel, Obama knows we might have to enter the fray to protect world stability if that escalates.

    In any war scenario, I worry about spread and escalation. Even if China does not internally consider North Korea an ally, troubles like an influx of refugees and shipping disruptions could provoke the Chinese to some kind of action.

    • #10
    • May 26, 2010, at 10:38 AM PDT
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  11. Profile Photo Member

    According to this Generational Dynamics analysis (based on the generational theory from the book The Fourth Turning), war between the Koreas is unfortunately very likely in the short- to mid-term.

    It saddens me to contemplate war, but my hope is that it will break the generation-long impasse of the current situation and lead ultimately to the reunification of Korea. However, even if the Koreas are reunited, if it is not handled properly, there will be a rift and mistrust between North and South for many generations to come.

    • #11
    • May 29, 2010, at 8:12 AM PDT
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