Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer

 

A new New York Times/CBS News poll indicates trouble ahead for whomever Republicans ultimately choose to be their standard bearer.

Among registered voters, President Obama now leads Mitt Romney 48% to 42%, which CBS claims is attributable to the shift among independents who are cooling toward the idea of replacing Obama with a Republican. The matchup between Obama and Santorum is even worse at 49% to 41%.

Image: CBS News (click to enlarge)

So what’s the story here?  What’s scaring the independents away from the Republicans and/or making Obama all of a sudden a whole lot more palatable to these voters?

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  1. Profile Photo Member
    @RobertSilvernail

    Why?  1) Somewhat improving economy and stock market;  2) Republican in-fighting; but 3) It’s Early – let not your heart be troubled!

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    @PaulARahe

    Also, can you trust these guys? How many Republicans were polled? Democrats? Independents? Not that Pravda-on-the-Hudson or CBS would engage in any dirty tricks! That would be unthinkable.

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    @MelFoil

    Didn’t you hear? On January 21, 2013,  the new Republican President (whichever one that is) wants to outlaw contraceptives in the morning and nuke Tehran in the afternoon.  It’ll be an exceptionally full day. I read it on a blog somewhere.

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    Paul A. Rahe: Also, can you trust these guys? How many Republicans were polled? Democrats? Independents? Not that Pravda-on-the-Hudson or CBS would engage in any dirty tricks! That would be unthinkable. · 1 minute ago

    Other polls are just as depressing, so it isn’t just that one. There is an interesting article from National Journal that describes how Obama’s coalition from 2008 has been reconstituted (and he now wins 52% of white women) :

    http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/obamas-coalition.php

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    @

    The story is the ineffectiveness of the Republican public in shutting down the thugs.  The disgraceful behavior of OWS at the Santorum speeches over the last couple of days, for example.  This is the equivalent of defacing lawn signs during a campaign etc.  I’m certain it is clearly illegal.  But does the GOP have the will to bring legal force against these groups?  Conservatives are just so populated with people who expect civil discourse and don’t know how to respond to pure thuggery.  And I admit this is a serious problem — how does one deal with bullies, without becoming one yourself?  This, of course, is what they are counting on. 

    But we’ve had many months and even years to see this coming.  Why is there no clear procedure and structure in place to deal with this kind of misbehavior. The MSM and OWS groups are so far over the line in trying to shut down open public discourse, surely it should be easy enough to discredit them publicly.  Why is the message not getting out — and why does the majority of the conservative community sit and act like spectators?

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    @DocJay

    This election is very simple to me.   We lose unless Obama is 100% exposed.  Never ending videos,  TV and radio ads, viral internet news will all be needed.  Make him own his poor decisions and his scandals.  Maybe we have a chance then but still not a good one.

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    @JohnMarzan

    I want to see what the polling looks like after Obama submitted his ridiculous budget.

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    @JohnMarzan

    I still think this is going to be a close race. the debates will matter, with the last one being decisive.

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    @Patti

     An unscientific poll of my female friends and acquaintances reflects those poll numbers.  I believe the primary process is working properly.

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    @docmolloy

    Love me or leave me but don’t leave me be lonely you have the power to vote for your looney.. Oh it’s a long, long while from now till November.. got a whole summer to go yet and it’s gonna get Hot! Hot! I tell ya.. Poll on.. roll on election time.

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    @billy

    Gasoline is predicted to reach $5.00+/gal. this summer. Let’s see what the CBS/NYT polls say then.

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    @BereketKelile

    The only thing I find interesting about the poll is that it was conducted on my birthday (middle column). I’m with Prof Rahe because I see CBS and NYT and I get suspicious. Also, how has the fighting during the last month affected voters perceptions of the candidates?

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    @Percival

    They give their margin of error as 3%.  Their weighted respondent percentages are Republicans 30%, Democrats 34%, and Independents 36%.  Those are the registered voters in the sample,   they got 88% registered voters from their total sample size, which sounds suspiciously high, but I’m no pollster.

    A 1% difference between Romney and Santorum is little more than statistical noise.

    Robert Silvernail: Why?  1) Somewhat improving economy and stock market;  2) Republican in-fighting; but 3) It’s Early – let not your heart be troubled! · 4 minutes ago

    In addition, Obama hasn’t been on TV much lately.  It has seemed in the past that the more coverage he gets, the lower his numbers go.

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    @

    Things change.  At one point, it looked like Herman Cain would win the Republican nomination – hard to even remember that!  That being said, the R nominees have been overexposed – even I’m tired of the endless debates. 

    When Romney wins the nomination, will he be tried by fire or appear effete?  Obama’s team has been watching carefully, and have probably already assembled the damaging quotes for the relevant commercials – “I don’t care about the very poor”. 

    By continuing Bush foreign policies, Obama has been relatively successful.  Economically, his policies are likely ruinous, but that’s what most of the people want, after all . . . . .

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    @DrewInWisconsin
    Percival:

    In addition, Obama hasn’t been on TV much lately.  It has seemed in the past that the more coverage he gets, the lower his numbers go.

    Indeed! I had forgotten this interesting statistic. Once the campaign gets into full swing, we’re going to see His Smugness everywhere, and people will remember why they dislike him. (Because he cannot hide the fact that he dislikes them.)

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    @BillWalsh

    I’ll take “Lousy GOP candidates” for $400, Diane.

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    @MishaA

    I see it as the infighting combined with the fact that most major media are in the can for Obama.  An example of this is the ridiculous narrative on the contraceptive mandate that Republicans are trying to restrict, limit, or take away birth control.  Obviously opposing a decree by the administration and its political appointees is nothing of the sort, but it is out there and for that squishy center/swing voter who isn’t “in to politics” it only takes a little of that nonsense unanswered to sway them.  Instead of just bashing each other and trying to score the coup de grace in the state to state races our potential nominees also need to start talking now about why Obama can’t be allowed a second term.  We on the right are mostly in agreement on this point (see the last center of gravity poll here on Ricochet for proof), but the rest of America is not.  So when our candidates are portrayed as the guy who says  “bad stuff about gays” and “lost reelection” (Santorum), the “neo-isolationist” (Paul) the “guy who cheats on his wives” (Gingrich) and the “Rich Guy” (Romney), Obama starts to look viable.

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    @JamesGawron

    Diane,

    2nd or more like a 3rd.  NYTimes and CBS always round up the usual suspects.  To say you can’t trust them is the understatement of the millenium.

    I say we stay on course and let Gd sort out the general.  It’s Romney that is most vulnerable in the general.  That’s why NYTimes and CBS are trying to make everything else look dangerous.  It is dangerous, for them!

    Regards,

    Jim

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    @WhiskeySam

    Unless these polls show Obama up by a landslide they are irrelevant.  We don’t have a candidate yet and are not making direct attacks on Obama’s record.  How does it look on a state-by-state basis?  Those are the numbers that really matter.

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    @Percival

    This is only a 6 or 7% gap.  Polls can move by more than that for no apparent reason whatsoever, and I’m reluctant to trust any of them much.  Certainly, at this stage, poll results are little more than trivia.

    Once again, given the margin of error, the difference between Romney and Santorum is negligible.

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    @Cutlass

    Americans don’t like to vote out presidents because Americans don’t like to give up or accept failure.

    It’s obvious to us, as conservatives, that this guy has a dangerous ideological vision for the country. But to the average, non-partisan voter his ideology doesn’t matter.  They like him as a person, and when he distorts his positions, and plays up the “aw shucks, I’m working really hard – but this job is just so darn tough” nonsense people buy it.

    The bottom line is that as our sitting president, people are inclined to look for any excuse to vote for him. If the economy looks even remotely better voters are unlikely to risk making a change.

    I hope I’m wrong, but this will be an uphill climb no matter who the nominee is.

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    @Pseudodionysius

    As Bob Dylan would say:

    “The Times they are a New Roman”

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    @

    Let me add a feckless Republican party that won’t even stand up for their own rights when Obama tramples all ove the Constitution, that won’t take a stand when the Dems refuse to carry out their Constitutional responsibilities, candidates who all demonstrate themselves to be as petty as a bunch of junior high girls arguing over prom dresses …. Need I say more. These are serious times and no one is acting like it.

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    @
    Percival: This is only a 6 or 7% gap.  Polls can move by more than that for no apparent reason whatsoever, and I’m reluctant to trust any of them much.  Certainly, at this stage, poll results are little more than trivia.

    Once again, given the margin of error, the difference between Romney and Santorum is negligible. · 20 minutes ago

    That’s pretty bad for Santorum, actually. He hasn’t had anywhere near the scrutiny Romney has had. As I said on an earlier thread, The Obama campaign could cut a different brutally effective anti-Santorum ad on abortion, contraceptives, “privacy” etc., every week from now until the election and not even have to use the same quote or video clip twice.

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    @GeraldStenstrom

    Wait until its one on one, Obama vs whomever.  Right now it’s too early, everyday the polls swing.  I wouldn’t make my choice on a poll result.  The Obama media wants to discourage the other side.

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    @tabularasa

    This is one reason I’m concerned about a brokered convention.  Until then the Republicans will be trying to take each other down, instead of focusing on Obama.  Once Obama’s record becomes the focal point, I fully expect the race to tighten.

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    wmartin

    That’s pretty bad for Santorum, actually. He hasn’t had anywhere near the scrutiny Romney has had. As I said on an earlier thread, The Obama campaign could cut a different brutally effective anti-Santorum ad on abortion, contraceptives, “privacy” etc., every week from now until the election and not even have to use the same quote or video clip twice.

    And they can cut equally different equally effective and equally brutal anti-Romney ads also.

    That’s not the problem the GOP has.

    The problem is that the GOP can’t figure out how to respond effectively. It turns out groveling, surrender, and curling up into a little ball and waiting for the left to get tired of kicking do not produce political victory.

    Unless the GOP can solve this problem it doesn’t matter much who the nominee turns out to be.

    Obama is an unparalleled disaster. And the opposition- the GOP- is so feckless and distrusted by the electorate that Obama might be re-elected.

    I remain amazed by that. Obama should be twenty points down in any poll against any Republican- but he isn’t.

    Ugh.

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