The Trouble With Mitt

 

John Hinderaker encapsulates an assumption which has started to take hold among many of Mitt Romney’s backers: that the fault for what appears to be an increasingly likely 2012 election loss lies with conservatives for making this a real primary. Speaking of the see-saw of not-Romney candidates, he writes:

The same pattern has been repeated more than once during the current, discouraging presidential nominating process. If the GOP loses this year’s presidential contest, the party will have no one to blame but its own activists.

I’m hearing this meme repeated by many increasingly dejected Romney supporters around Washington, D.C. See, if people had just gotten in line when we told them to, the theory goes, things would be looking up. But this is revisionist history, and this is a meme that deserves to die.

It is ludicrous to claim that the fault lies among conservatives for Romney’s precipitous drop among independents, which he’s endured over the past month (in some polls, it’s been a negative swing of 20 points), the primary reason he now lags Obama in most measures. Consider: since Romney ground Newt Gingrich into pulp in Florida with his 65-1 ad ratio three weeks ago, there has been not one debate, not one major piece of scandal or breaking news, not even one major round of negative ads against Romney. There has only been a series of gaffes on Romney’s part (most notably his line about not caring about the very poor) and a series of numbers which show mild economic improvement.

In reality, it’s those who demanded conservatives get in line ages in advance who made a fundamental mistake in how they approached this election. By demanding an ideological shift from a more populist, more fiscally conservative base they no longer direct or control, Romney’s most prominent backers failed to learn any of the right lessons from what led to the 2009-2010 cycles. They failed to realize that the base expected more from a candidate, from a leader, than the politics and policy of the past. This problem worsened when their candidate put forward a meandering, maintenance-based agenda which inspires no one, not even his backers. As Jim Pethokoukis put it recently:

Mitt Romney wants to be the next president of a country in need of serious and sweeping economic reform. And here are the first two points in his 59-point economic plan:

    1. Maintain current tax rates on personal income    2. Maintain current tax rates on interest, dividends, and capital gains

Now imagine private-equity boss Romney back at Bain Capital sitting down to read his team’s 59-point turnaround plan for some troubled widget maker. And imagine if the first two action items started with the phrase “Maintain current ….” Romney probably wouldn’t bother reading any further before tossing the report in the trash, calling a meeting, and cracking heads. Heck, if Private Equity Romney were called in to turn around Romney Campaign Inc., axing CEO Romney might be the first move on his to-do list—especially after looking at last night’s numbers from Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

Even worse than this unimpressive agenda is a failing of the candidate: that Romney has proven incapable of selling himself to the American people. In 2008, Romney failed in a horserace against McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani and Thompson. (Read Dan McLaughlin for reasons why.) Having the only real machine in the 2012 cycle and as an experienced candidate, he absolutely should have been able to stand on his own right as soon as this race came down to the far more flawed and less politically capable efforts of Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. By all rights, he should be running circles around them all.

Romney has every advantage in money, endorsements, organization, name ID, looks, technology, volunteers, mail, data, and infrastructure. What’s more, Romney’s staff is fastidious and detail oriented. A recent news story focused on the effort his advance team puts into getting the lighting right for their candidate to make for the best newspaper photos the next day. Rick Santorum, for Pete’s sake, doesn’t even have an advance staff.

The reason Romney hasn’t ended this thing in a walk is that he hasn’t successfully sold himself to the base or the country. He has simply not delivered as a salesman of his ideas or himself. For someone who’s been compared time and again to a used BMW salesman, he is stuck in the same pandering rut that prevented him from closing the deal last time around.

Instead of counting on an agenda or an ability to personally inspire, the argument from his supporters has over and over again hinged on Romney’s purported electability. This is one of the weakest arguments to make in a primary, as Romney’s funders have acknowledged recently (because when you win, it’s expected; but when you lose, instead of a speedbump, it strikes at the core of the case you’re making). As the cracks developed in Romney’s armor, his prominent backers went from denial of their existence to an argument that they don’t matter to increasingly loud demands that Obama’s badness as a president will bring everyone together, so there’s nothing to worry about.

Here’s the problem: that last argument can be used by every candidate in the GOP field – it’s not specific to Romney at all. And I personally doubt that it’s true.

Again and again, Romney’s stump speech turns to how much he loves America the Beautiful, reciting the phrases and talking about the country. It may be sincere, even if it seems bland and rote. But here’s the point: even if it’s real, the conservative voting base wants and expects more from a candidate than policies of maintenance and mawkish patriotism.

Everything we’ve seen happen since the election of Barack Obama should’ve taught Romney and his supporters that lesson. But they decided to play it safe, counting on a terrible economy to bolster their chances. And now, the economy appears to be making slight but steady improvement, and his route to the nomination looks to be an extended trench war paired with an overwhelming air attack – two things designed to chew even further at his ability to pivot back to a general election strategy.

The competitive and lengthy primary is not the reason for Romney’s failure – it’s just revealed the things about him that make him fail. There are three ways Romney supporters could’ve avoided this circumstance. They could have run a different campaign. They could have run on a different agenda. Or they could have run a different candidate.

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  1. Profile Photo Member
    @
    Albert Arthur:

    Question for Peter Robinson: Tevi Troy can’t write about Romney because he’s getting paid by the Romney campaign but Rick Santorum can write about Rick Santorum?I think it’s great that there are posts on the main feed under Rick Santorum’s byline, by the way. I just think it’s silly that Tevi Troy thinks he shouldn’t be writing.Also, I find it odd that people keep saying that Romney isn’t winning over the base. He’s got 42% of the over all vote count at this point. Ok, it’s not 51%, but it’s pretty close.

    I’ve also heard the argument that Romney is ahead because turn out is low. Well, excuse me, but aren’t the people who always turn out, even in down years, the, you know, base? · 4 hours ago

    Just want to underscore this point Peter. Paid operatives for Santorum are writing posts for the Senator — which is fine. So paid operatives for Romney are capable and welcome to do the same. Detailed articulation of a candidate’s views that we can then weigh in on is good, valuable content that ought to be encouraged.

    • #91
  2. Profile Photo Inactive
    @JamesOfEngland
    Franco: James,

    I’m trying to convey why Romney doesn’t resonate with a certain segment of Republican voters. Now is a time where the kind of presentation typified by the video is incongruent.

    If you mean he wasn’t passionate in the clip, I agree. I don’t know the context, but it looks as if he was answering a question. I know that when I was asked about my love for America, perhaps the most formative passion of my life (for my sins), a couple of years back I had a fairly similar response (the questioner excluded law and politics); the thing that pulled my heartstrings at that moment was the excellent, healthy, and delicious frozen meals you just can’t get here. Meditating on the inchoate nature of my patriotism for my adopting country awakened me to similarities in my feelings for my girlfriend, which I could also not reduce to specifics, which train of though led to our marriage.

    If this was a Romney ad, it would be terribly weak. His love of home, like my love of Catherine, is passionate and deeper; I’ve heard him talk about it in Nevada. Sometimes love is inarticulate.

    • #92
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    @Sisyphus

    The problem with Mitt is that, despite his pretensions of sterling expertise, anyone that has ever read Hayek and Hazlett is way ahead of him on Presidential Economics 101, and his off the cuff remarks, like the one on minimum wage, show it. That is not a “flaw”, that is a disqualification.

    • #93
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    @JamesOfEngland
    Franco: James,

    But again I see it comes from how people see the threats. Romney people don’t see the left as much of a threat, therefore they will not understand how conservatives, who do see the left as a threat through the massive growth of government power,  reacting to wide-eyed optimism and happy contentment with a bit of distain.  · 41 minutes ago

    I gather our impressions of Romney people are pretty different. Without meaning to be too mawkish, I’ve sat with people while they cried, and cried myself, in despair at the harm that the left threatens to inflict on our country. I regularly include the non-passage of the Employee Free Choice Act in my prayers of gratitude, and pray that the world survives under the weight of acts that have passed. I’ll link to some of my musings on a different thread tonight on the nature of the threat, which I view as existential.

    And that’s just amongst us non-Mormon “Romney People”. Mormons, in my experience, tend to be amongst the most apocalyptically concerned people in America. They’re also well aware of the abuse of the left, as regular recipients.

    • #94
  5. Profile Photo Member
    @ScottR
    Ben Domenech:[…]There are three ways Romney supporters could’ve avoided this circumstance. They could have run a different campaign. They could have run on a different agenda. Or they could have run a different candidate.

    They aren’t running the campaign, nor are they determining the agenda, nor do they have any ability to coax another candidate into the field.

    They have only contended — time and time again — that Mitt Romney is the least bad option of this spectacularly flawed field. And the best evidence that they are correct is that our own Prof. Rahe, a man seemingly placed on this earth to make eloquent cases against Mitt Romney, is still leaning toward Mitt Romney. QED.

    Yes, it’s a drag. But this is the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. And in all the thousands of anti-Romney posts and comments here at Ricochet, I have yet to read even a single convincing argument against this position.

    [Poop] happens. Romney happens. Accepting such unhappy facts in a whine-free, make-the-best-of-it manner is a perfectly conservative thing to do. In fact, it’s the most consevative thing to do.  

       

    • #95
  6. Profile Photo Member
    @PaulARahe
    Scott Reusser

    Ben Domenech:[…]There are three ways Romney supporters could’ve avoided this circumstance. They could have run a different campaign. They could have run on a different agenda. Or they could have run a different candidate.

    Theyaren’t running the campaign, nor aretheydetermining the agenda, nor dotheyhave any ability to coax another candidate into the field.

    They have only contended — time and time again — that Mitt Romney is the least bad option of this spectacularly flawed field. And the best evidence that they are correct is that our own Prof. Rahe, a man seemingly placed on this earth to make eloquent cases against Mitt Romney,is still leaning toward Mitt Romney. QED.

        · 11 minutes ago

    Fair enough. But I might be wrong. I really might. Santorum has an opportunity to prove me wrong. In another regard Romney has such an opportunity as well. In Florida, he showed, briefly, that he could learn from his prior mistakes. Then, he relapsed with regard to the minimum wage. I hope against hope that he improves.

    • #96
  7. Profile Photo Member
    @PaulARahe
    James Of England

    Douglas Wingate:  

    Paul Rahe quite evidently considers federalism an important issue and is not at all dismissive of it, as one can see quite easily by examining his posts of the last few months. What Dr. Rahe dismissed was Mitt Romney’s merely ad hoc invocation of federalism as a defense of his healthcare plan, which Romney had previously held up as a model for the nation. ….

    Again, we have a search function, James. Shame on you for making such a sloppy distortion, as if no one would bother to check your veracity. ·

    Prof. Rahe does not consider federalism to be a “substantive”, or, elsewhere, “serious” difference between Obamacare and Romneycare.

    More importantly, Rahe attacks the constitutionality of Romneycare, while admitting that he has no basis for this other than a sense that John Adams would have opposed mandates (despite Adams using a mandate in the Massachusetts constitution (Article III)), and occasionally uses “enumerated powers” to describe state government powers. · 14 hours ago

    There you go again, James. See my latest post.

    • #97
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    @StuartCreque
    Fastflyer

    Stuart Creque: By the way, Mitt, since Michigan’s unemployment rate is at its lowest since Sept. 2008, how do you plan to convince Michigan voters that they need to fire Obama and hire you to improve their economic outlook?· 18 hours ago

    Michigan is being turned around by Michiganders. A new Republican governor backed by a Republican legislature have started to unwind all the damage the Canadian Socialist previous Democrat Governor and legislature inflicted on the state. California is doomed no matter who is president. Michigan now has a chance to turn around thanks to the voters and it won’t matter who is president. Texas has prospered despite the current president. States have the power to determine their own destiny. It is up to the voters. · 2 hours ago

    That is great to hear.

    On a side note, it doesn’t sound like a great argument for Mitt Romney or whoever the GOP candidate is.  I suppose the way to sell it is that Michigan, Texas and other states are prospering despite President Obama, and electing the Republican will help the rest of the states prosper with the new President’s support.

    • #98
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    @RonaldusMaximus
    I think a lot of people mistake Romney’s awkwardness, his stiffness, as inauthenticity. · 19 hours ago

    You can’t be awkward, stiff or inauthentic running for President.

    • #99
  10. Profile Photo Member
    @ScottR
    Ronaldus Maximus

    I think a lot of people mistake Romney’s awkwardness, his stiffness, as inauthenticity. · 19 hours ago

    You can’t be awkward, stiff or inauthentic running for President. · 2 hours ago

    Unless your competition is a sourpuss (Santorum, too frequently) or lacks discipline (Gingrich) or can’t string two sentences together (Perry) or is ignorant (Cain) or is just a wee bit nutty (Bachmann) or is a pompous dork (Huntsman) or is a punt-on-first-down quitter (Pawlenty).

    Which, again and as always, is the best case for Romney. 

    • #100
  11. Profile Photo Inactive
    @Palaeologus
    Stuart Creque

    That is great to hear.

    On a side note, it doesn’t sound like a great argument for Mitt Romney or whoever the GOP candidate is.  I suppose the way to sell it is that Michigan, Texas and other states are prospering despite President Obama, and electing the Republican will help the rest of the states prosper with the new President’s support. 

    Michigan is no Texas, Stuart. It’s much closer to CA, with some positive signs.

    The 2001 and 2008 recessions were blips here because MI has been in bad shape for more than a decade.

    I think a comparison of Romney vs Obama = Snyder vs Granholm is a great way to go in November.

    The nerdy businessmen against the handsome, lawyerly, machine pols’ favorites who’ve never held a “real” (private sector) job.

    I doubt we’ll win MI, but there is every possibility that either Romney or Santorum could make Barry spend a ton of time and effort to hold it.

    • #101
  12. Profile Photo Inactive
    @JohnMarzan

    I see the 2012 election is a referendum on Obama, if the voters like the way he’s doing the job, he’ll win…  no matter who the GOP selects as his opponent.

    I also see the GOP primaries as a referendum on Romney…

    • #102
  13. Profile Photo Member
    @Franco
    Scott Reusser

    Ronaldus Maximus

    I think a lot of people mistake Romney’s awkwardness, his stiffness, as inauthenticity. · 19 hours ago

    You can’t be awkward, stiff or inauthentic running for President. · 2 hours ago

    Unless your competition is a sourpuss (Santorum, too frequently) or lacks discipline (Gingrich) or can’t string two sentences together (Perry) or is ignorant (Cain) or is just a wee bit nutty (Bachmann) or is a pompous dork (Huntsman) or is a punt-on-first-down quitter (Pawlenty).

    Which, again and as always, is the best case for Romney.  · 4 hours ago

    Romney – for those who don’t want personality.

    • #103
  14. Profile Photo Coolidge
    @AlbertArthur

    I’m not saying you specifically, Franco, because I don’t know what you think of him, but it seems to me that a lot of people who complain about Romney are the same who wanted Mitch Daniels to run.

    • #104
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    @RichardGloff

    Seriously, is this piece missing a paragraph?  The graph starting with ‘Instead of counting…’ appears to reference multiple arguments which I can’t find.  This is unclear.  Unclear is bad.

    • #105
  16. Profile Photo Inactive
    @JamesOfEngland
    Albert Arthur: I’m not saying you specifically, Franco, because I don’t know what you think of him, but it seems to me that a lot of people who complain about Romney are the same who wanted Mitch Daniels to run. · 2 hours ago

    And often specifically cited his lack of charisma as a positive. Yeah, I’m sometimes confused by that, too.

    • #106
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    @Sisyphus
    Trace Urdan

    Just want to underscore this point Peter. Paid operatives for Santorum are writing posts for the Senator — which is fine. So paid operatives for Romney are capable and welcome to do the same. Detailed articulation of a candidate’s views that we can then weigh in on is good, valuable content that ought to be encouraged.

    While I always assume that any Internet advocate may be a paid mouthpiece (I am not, by the way) regardless of protestations, I am more open to declared mouthpieces than the covert variety, who are often more obvious than they realize. In fact, I propose that requiring such a declaration in the CoC would help keep the debate here clean.

    • #107
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    @StuartCreque
    Arkarter: Seriously, is this piece missing a paragraph?  The graph starting with ‘Instead of counting…’ appears to reference multiple arguments which I can’t find.  This is unclear.  Unclear is bad. · 6 hours ago

    It seems a clear statement that Romney’s supporters are not arguing in favor of Romney’s agenda or Romney’s ability to personally inspire.  Both points are addressed earlier in Ben’s post, where he asserts that Romney’s agenda is “unimpressive” and that Romney “has simply not delivered as a salesman of his ideas or himself.”

    It would be nice to see arguments from Romney supporters that explain his 59 theses and why those supporters see him as such an inspirational figure.  Those sorts of arguments might help open the eyes of Romney opponents like myself who don’t find him particularly inspirational, politically adept, or committed to conservative policies.

    • #108
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    @StuartCreque

    Question: why does Rick Santorum, who has little campaign staff to rely upon, take the time to write posts for Ricochet, while neither Gingrich (perhaps similarly understaffed but never at a loss for words) nor Romney (who has a very large and active campaign staff) have done so?

    • #109
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    @JohnLePetomane

    “Getting in line” to back Mr. Romney may be a bit challenging for some conservatives.  George Romney walked out on Goldwater in ’64 and Mitt has expressed great pride in his father’s principled stand.  Mitt and his backers should understand if conservatives take a similarly principled stand with respect to his candidacy.

    • #110
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