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California, Leading the Nation Once Again
From a column in today’s Wall Street Journal by my Hoover Institution colleagues Michael Boskin and John Cogan:
California’s rising standards of living and outstanding public schools and universities once attracted millions seeking upward economic mobility. But then something went radically wrong as California legislatures and governors built a welfare state on high tax rates, liberal entitlement benefits, and excessive regulation. The results, though predictable, are nonetheless striking. From the mid-1980s to 2005, California’s population grew by 10 million, while Medicaid recipients soared by seven million; tax filers paying income taxes rose by just 150,000; and the prison population swelled by 115,000.
California’s economy, which used to outperform the rest of the country, now substantially underperforms. The unemployment rate, at 10.9%, is higher than every other state except Nevada and Rhode Island. With 12% of America’s population, California has one third of the nation’s welfare recipients.
Twelve percent of the nation’s population–but a third of the nation’s welfare recipients. Once again, the Golden State leads the nation. Only this time, it’s over a cliff.
Attempting to console myself, I recall that, during the one year I lived in New York City, during the administration of Mayor David Dinkins, everyone with whom I talked–co-workers, neighbors in the apartment building, people I’d run into at the diner–spoke incessantly about the ungovernability of the city. Things in New York would only get worse. They had to. There was no way out. A couple of years later Rudy Giuliani succeeded Dinkins–and began the transformation of the city.
It if could happen in New York, it can happen in the Golden State.
Can’t it?
I hit the eject button back in 2002. And while I miss the weather, I don’t miss the vibe, the lack of trees, the lack of greenery, and the confined back yards of your typical California-house
New York City benefited from an extremely strong man, Rudy, and a Mayor’s office that wielded considerable governing authority. Neither the strong person on the horizon, nor the strong governorship exists in California. Also, Rudy’s time in office occurred from 1994 to 2001, during which the nation itself had not yet entered the avalanche of decline.
Given the decline of America generally, you are hoping that California will miraculously reverse the trend of the nation within it’s own borders.
Sorry Peter, ‘not happenin’.
Like Greece, California has some unused islands to sell to the Chinese.
Of course it can happen but it will require a governor that is willing to take political risks. It has to be a governor who is willing to sacrifice presidential aspirations by calling out boneheads in Sacramento, and is willing to gut our regulatory nightmare. The governor of California isn’t a particularly strong office, but a powerful personality in that office could do a lot of good.
Where’d you go, Joe? And is there a vacant lot next to yours?
I don’t know, Peter. Seems like everywhere you go, the place falls apart.
You weren’t planing any moves near Baltimore, were you? I ask merely for information.
I suppose it could happen in the Golden State…but only if the people of the Golden State recognize that change needs to happen.
Y’know, the same people who willingly re-elected Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer and Moonbeam Brown.
Y’know, the same people who willingly re-elected Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer and Moonbeam Brown. ·2 minutes ago
I agree. There is a ray of hope, though. Governor Brown did push for the abolition of redevelopment in California and ultimately got it done. Weird, I know. There is always a reason to dream big.
Gus; dreaming big? Is that the same thing as fantasizing?
Probably.
Peter–
Let’s see. You live in New York City–it’s an ungovernable civic disaster. You move to California–which is an ungovernable civic disaster.
Have we considered the possibility here that the common element is, well, you?
Looking for correlations here. Mid-1980’s to 2005…. Peter, exactly when did you move to California? (chuckle)
But NY is not doing well any longer either- they went crazy as soon as Rudy left. See this.
I was recently enjoying a weekend of skiing in Park City. We went to a Kroger-owned supermarket for groceries (think Ralph’s out here). I was besides myself to discover every item I bought was easily 20% cheaper than here in California. And that’s without the 10% sales tax. And that’s in poshy-posh Park City! I guess everything gets more expensive when you’re paying for those who don’t have to pay for anything. Sorry, Peter, I love my California, but we’re planning on retiring to other pastures.
Where’d you go, Joe? And is there a vacant lot next to yours? ·27 minutes ago
You would not likely want to go ‘slummin’ to be my actual neighbor, given your sucess. But in a general sense, I bet you’d really like some of the properties and surroundings of Milton, Georgia — where I’m at now. I also spent five years in Summerville, SC…the Isle of Palms (25 minutes down the road) is a posh coastal town you’d probably enjoy.
I’m not any kind of expert, but it is my impression that New Yorkers wanted Giuliani to succeed. They wanted the end product.
I don’t think Californians want the end product of what we would call “success.”
Peter, bankruptcy will concentrate the mind wonderfully. California has to hit bottom before it will get better. In the meantime, . . .
Following up on #15, Californians also don’t want the type of government that would require them to work harder or to provide incentives to work harder. They want these government benefits. The type of government Californians want, and about 50% of Americans want, necessarily leads to lower growth rates and then finally to the collapse of the whole system. See “Why Progressive Institutions are Unsustainable” (Encounter Broadsides) by Richard A. Epstein.
I face a similar calculation every time I leave California for Tennessee. The cost of living in Los Angeles is approximately 50 percent higher than Nashville. Gas is 75 cents a gallon cheaper in Music City. For the cost of a two bedroom condo on the California coast, you can get a five bedroom house on a couple of acres in a tony Nashville neighborhood. And with no state income tax in Tennessee, you get to hold on to roughly an extra 10 percent of your income per year. At a certain point the math trumps the emotional attachment.
Build a hammock on the beach, and the lazy will come. Next, comes the demand for more hammocks.
Where’d you go, Joe? And is there a vacant lot next to yours? ·1 hour ago
Go East, middle-aged man!
Why is everyone dedicated to torturing me today?
Where’d you go, Joe? And is there a vacant lot next to yours? ·27 minutes ago
You would not likely want to go ‘slummin’ to be my actual neighbor, given your sucess. But in a general sense, I bet you’d really like some of the properties and surroundings of Milton, Georgia — where I’m at now. I also spent five years in Summerville, SC…the Isle of Palms (25 minutes down the road) is a posh coastal town you’d probably enjoy. ·41 minutes ago
Milton and Summerville sound like heaven. (We’ll leave the posh stuff to Rob Long. Rob’s ambition, as he keeps telling me, is to retire to Beaufort, S.C.)
For what it’s worth – as heard on NPR’s California Report this morning – there may be up to three different tax measures on the November ballot. Gov. Brown’s measure would raise taxes temporarily on the wealthy plus have a sales tax for all. A rival one would raise taxes on the top 1%. The third one would raise income tax for everyone with the revenue going to K-12 education.
Of course the elephant in the room that few conservatives want to acknowledge is the inundation of California with a Latin American culture – this has sunk California more than anything else. I know libertarians will respond with “look at Texas” – to which I respond, let’s talk in another decade or twenty years.
Your comments will certainly make some wince and think it racist but the key word is culture. Most people immigrating from Latin American nations are more comfortable with the idea of strong government subjugation for security sake and not as comfortable with individualism. With the move for less cultural assimilation of immigrants in recent decades (I wonder who’s idea that was?) this growing population has strengthened the leftist’s hold in California. And let’s not forget the effect that Clinton’s Motor-Voter Bill has had on voter fraud–Has anyone heard from Bob Dornan lately.
An interesting note on the California v. Texas comparison: California was essentially founded by Republicans and became a Democrat state where the reverse is true of Texas.
Douglas, I don’t think it is just a coincidence that today’s California follows a migration of people from the Northeast California Dreaming in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s.
That is true, but Nashville also has a political culture that’s distinct from other urban centers. Even in the city, the trend is towards Blue Dog Democrats. Nashville’s longtime congressman is Jim Cooper, who sparred with the Clintons over Hillarycare. The former mayor was Phil Bredesen, a conservative Democrat who went on to become Governor and get the state’s Medicaid system, which was actually hemorrhaging money due to the excesses of the previous Republican governor, back on sound financial footing. So as big cities go, Nashville is fairly conservative. In Tennessee, the model you’re describing applies much more to Memphis, which is a sewer of political corruption and cronyism.
The problem is that almost all large cities are run by Democrats, and they’re trying to re-make those places in California’s image as fast as they can. The difference between a place like Nashville and a Los Angeles is that Nashville is tempered by being surrounded by a heavily conservative state, which limits the mischief that can be done.31 minutes ago
Buck up Peter!
¡Y tú tambien Troy!
It is 72 degrees with a fresh sea breeze, my Squishy Blue Nephew’s frosh baseball game starts in an hour, and by the grace of God I kept the wolf from the door for another month. I am having a hard time working up a last-chopper-off-the-embassy-roof vibe out of all this.
Dwell in the land and feed on His faithfulness, count your blessings and never leave blue water.
Would Mexico take it back? Or is it too dysfunctional even for them?