Straws in the Wind

 

If you doubt my contention that Mitt Romney is going to win a landslide and that his choice of Paul Ryan and his decision to seek a mandate for enacting Ryan’s program will nationalize the election and give our dynamic duo coattails of the sort that Reagan had in 1980, ponder the implications of my post from last night Then and Now; read Niall Ferguson’s attack on Obama in Newsweek; take a look at Glenn Thrush’s piece on Politico, which is entitled Obama Campaign Roiled by Conflict; and consider this column from The Washington Post, which is entitled Why Ryan Might be Right about Medicare.

The press is beginning to distance itself from our tinpot Messiah. The quarrels that are wreaking havoc on his campaign reflect the fact that his strategy is failing abysmally. And Ryan and Romney are beginning to be treated in the mainstream press as serious men with a plan for meeting the present crisis.

There is a simple rule in politics. You cannot beat someone with no one; and, because he lacks an agenda for a second term and a plan for confronting our fiscal and our economic crisis, The One is rapidly becoming no one.

The old road is rapidly aging . . .

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  1. Profile Photo Podcaster
    @DaveCarter

    Professor, I’d like to agree with you.  And I get the sense you may be exactly right.  But I offer a caution that it is still very possible to lose this thing.  We have to fight like the underdog, and take nothing for granted, relentlessly challenging the premise of the opposition and their supporters in the press.  Optimism is a powerful thing.  Cockiness can be debilitating.  

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    @AndrewQuinn

    Professor, I wish I could partake in your daring optimism, but  electoral geography prevents me from doing so. All of this national “thematic” politics is very important to political junkies like us Ricochetti, but is not very important, I think, to anyone else. And regardless of how weak Obama seems on the level of nationwide thematics, I’m afraid it seems unlikely that the President will lose the necessary permutation of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

    I sincerely hope that you are right and I am wrong. But I can’t take the carnivorous political media’s word for it that Obama is faltering. “Dewey defeats Truman” and all that.

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    @MelFoil

    Makes me hungry for a chicken sandwich.

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    @rayconandlindacon

    “tinpot Messiah”…   Thanks for that moniker.  The “one” certainly fits that image.

    Sadly, I agree more with Dave and Andrew above.  Things are certainly going better for Romney than I expected, and worse for Obama, but not nearly so much as needed.  OTOH, we really won’t know until Nov 7.

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    @TheNewClearOption

    The phrase in order is ‘cautious optimism.’ I sure hope come November, it turns out like Dr. Rahe has prognosticated, but I remain more cautious than optimistic.

    It’s a pleasant thought right now, since none of those “bells” the good doctor has cited above can be unrung, even in the wake of Akin’s comments. The question is, which is louder? Them, or the manufactured brouhaha over Akin?

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    @dittoheadadt

    Reading 1-5, above, now I understand what the Iron Lady meant about “going wobbly.”

    • #6
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    @TheMugwump

    We have two potentially decisive hands yet to play in this poker game.  The nominating conventions are up next.  The norm is to see a brief bounce in the polls for both nominees following the event.  The thing to look for here is the amount of energy on display by the partisan participants.  A flat convention by either one could prove a disaster, but I think that rather unlikely for the Republican side given the energy provided by the Tea Party.

    Then we get the debates.  Mitt had to run the gauntlet of numerous debates within the party and that will work to his advantage.  But performance will be key.  If Obama comes off as petulant or aloof, then he’s done.  The media will turn on him en masse and this thing could be over well before election day.          

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    @tabularasa

    The one thing we can expect from the MSM is lack of principle.  I’m not sure I go as far as Professor Rahe, but there is strong evidence that some in the MSM are distancing themselves from Obama.

    Here’s the problem.  Instead of dumping him because his policies are so manifestly bone-headed and harmful, the MSM begins to abandon him only when he appears to be weak.

    Perhaps they need a slogan.  Here’s my suggestion:  “The MSM:  Even When We’re Right, We Do It For the Wrong Reason.”

    That said, if they want to dump on him, I’m all for it.  But let’s not take this as a sign of either competence or principle.  

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    @DavidWilliamson

    And, Mr Long finds Mr Obama weird (what took so long?). 

    I agree that it is time for cautious optimism. Mr Obama will be a master at hiding his petulance and aloofness in the debates, but his intense dislike for Mr Romney – the personification of all that Marx hated about Capitalists –  may well cause the smiley mask to slip for a few seconds.

    It will be fascinating to watch it all unravel.

    • #9
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    @

    Two things…

    1)  who is going to the Republican Convention: every R running who can get there;  how many D candidates are skipping their convention?    It tells a lot.

    2) As posted on the member feed this morning, from the Daily Caller: Obama could lose Illinois

    While, short of a real tsunami, he probably will hold the state, if Illinois is in trouble, I’m less worried about the “swing states.”  I live in Illinois; I hear the grumbles and see the crappy economy.  I’m really not surprised.

    Fight like we are behind…and get ready to govern boldly.

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    @MelFoil
    David Williamson:  …….It will be fascinating to watch it all unravel.

    Image11a.jpg

    • #11
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    @

    I just saw this quote in the Glenn Thrush Politico piece:

    It is Obama’s own burning competitiveness, with his remorseless focus on beating Mitt Romney — an opponent he genuinely views with contempt and fears will be unfit to run the country.

    Wow.  Talk about projection.  (bold phrasing by me)

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html#ixzz246NAPbIx

    Edited to add: When you read this article, it really starts to sound like those Downfall satire videos.  Wow, Clinton was right; he’s an amateur.

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    @LastOutpostontheRight

    I find myself nodding my head in vigorous agreement after reading Dr. Rahe’s post, and all of the thoughtful comments. Desperate to add something … anything … I see a GOP advantage in the debates (hinted at by -Paules above).

    Debates are like interviews. You get better with practice. Romney’s real-live debate experience is much more current than Obama’s. It’s been nearly four years since the tinpot messiah has faced off against an ideological opponent in such a setting. I believe this will give Romney a noticeable advantage over the T/M.

    Cautiously optimistic.

    • #13
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    @HartmannvonAue

    For his entire political life, O, petulant and narcissistic to the core, has been coddled and shielded. If R&R can sustain attacks on him, especially those that point out his poor character and the falseness of his claims of intellectual and moral superiority, he will crack. Like most bullies and spoiled children, he’s never had to “take” what he “dishes out” (good grief, the Illinois Republicans ran Alan Keyes against him, and that half-heartedly). He’s never had to deal with determined opposition and he can’t without turning openly petty and spiteful.  Keep him rattled and he’ll practically hand the race to R&R.

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    @
    Hartmann von Aue:  He’s never had to deal with determined opposition and he can’t without turning openly petty and spiteful.  Keep him rattled and he’ll practically hand the race to R&R. · 3 minutes ago

    I seem to remember Haley Barbour pointing that out in a Ricochet podcast once (not the most recent one, the one before) and he made the same kind of prediction.  Again, at the risk of repeating myself too much, it’s likely to be like those Downfall videos.

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    @CrowsNest

    Oh, that Washington Post column is sweet: 

    Limits must be imposed on the health sector. There are no pleasing ways to do this. Still, the increasing evidence from large-scale experience is that market mechanisms offer the best chance of reconciling Americans’ desire for personal choice with cost control. If there are better ideas, let’s hear them. Otherwise, we shouldn’t reject the obvious merely because it’s unfamiliar.

    Voucher plans are not right-wing, extremist ideas. They enjoy support in both parties.

    Take that, Nobody-Bidenhyourtime 2012.

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    @CharlesRapp

    So the straws in the wind say the MSM is going to let the anointed one twist in the wind?

    • #17
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    @EricVoegelin

    Obama can win only if America fails itself and that is possible. But if America is still the same or even nearly the same country that it has always been, then he can’t possibly win; the list of failures is too long and too obvious. Americans don’t reward failure.

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    @Franciscus

    Deep down I really can’t believe that the majority of voters will look at the last 4 years of O and say, “Yeah, I gotta have more of that”.

    • #19
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    @RedFeline
    dittoheadadt: Reading 1-5, above, now I understand what the Iron Lady meant about “going wobbly.” · 19 minutes ago

    Well said, Dittoheadadt! Margaret Thatcher has always been one of my heroes, and absolute confidence was her normal demeanor. Look like a winner, work like a winner, act like a winner, talk like a winner, and this gives the best chance that you will win. The dynamic duo of Romney and Ryan is all of those things, and will win as a result.

    I agree with Professor Rahe. Even from Canada I can feel the change in feelings that is taking place. Like the good Professor, I also read the signs and see victory in the wind.

     

     

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    @DocJay
    Mel Foil · 28 minutes ago

    David Williamson:  …….It will be fascinating to watch it all unravel.

    Jumping the shark tank?

    • #21
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    @RedFeline
    Eric Voegelin: Obama can win only if America fails itself and that is possible. But if America is still the same or even nearly the same country that it has always been, then he can’t possibly win; the list of failures is too long and too obvious. Americans don’t reward failure. · 10 minutes ago

    Surely the American people haven’t changed so much in such a short time. Surely when Mitt Romney talks so movingly about restoring the United States to being the hope of the world, this resonates in the souls of Americans as it did in mine.

    Politics is about emotion! Having a plan adds substance to the emotion. Mitt arouses the emotion, and Paul adds the Plan. A winning combination!

    • #22
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    @Pilli

    While I am optimistic that R&R can win the election and probably will win the popular vote, I am reminded that 3 very important counties in FL are controlled by Democrats.  They are the same Democrats and counties that  caused the debacle in 2000.  Make no mistake, the Dems CHEATED in FL in 2000.  I was there.  I saw it.  I get the impression that the Dems are getting desperate.  With a close election, possible coat-tails for R&R, they will not hesitate to bend the outcome to their advantage any way they can.  And not just in FL.

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    @KCMulville

    Last week, the topic was whether Obama will drop Biden.

    This week – will Biden drop Obama?

    • #24
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    @skipsul

    There are still WAY too many folks on the dole, and they’re screaming and whining about how evil Romney is.  They’re something like 45% of the electorate at this point.  I don’t see landslide even if R&R win.

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    @CharlesRapp
    skipsul: There are still WAY too many folks on the dole, and they’re screaming and whining about how evil Romney is.  They’re something like 45% of the electorate at this point.  I don’t see landslide even if R&R win. · 0 minutes ago

    But do they vote? Their actions speak volumes. To be on the government dole is a passive activity, expecting others to take care of them. This personality type is not inclined to get off their collective duffs and vote.

    (I do not count Social Security and Medicare in this. Why? Because those recipients view this money as their due for having paid into the system during their working years.)

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    @ConservativeWanderer
    Charles Rapp

    skipsul: There are still WAY too many folks on the dole, and they’re screaming and whining about how evil Romney is.  They’re something like 45% of the electorate at this point.  I don’t see landslide even if R&R win. · 0 minutes ago

    But do they vote? Their actions speak volumes. To be on the government dole is a passive activity, expecting others to take care of them. This personality type is not inclined to get off their collective duffs and vote.· 0 minutes ago

    Indeed.

    And we know that enthusiasm for The Lightworker is way down from 2008. I expect a lot of those folks will sit at home in November.

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    @ChrisHurtubise

    Dr. Rahe – did you catch the statement last week from the Bishop of Madison, Wisc. about Paul Ryan’s Catholic orthodoxy? To me, it represented a huge stride forward for the American hierarchy, which to date had largely left the MSM’s assertion that progressivism = Catholic Orthodoxy. Obviously, it got zero attention, but I think the implications are nevertheless enormous!

    The new archbishop of Denver also just released a stunning document describing the viability of fiscal conservatism from a Catholic Social Thought perspective.

    Perhaps this new direction from the hierarchy will help contribute to the groundswell of support you prophesy — I certainly hope so!

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    @BrianClendinen

     

    Pilli: While I am optimistic that R&R can win the election and probably will win the popular vote, I am reminded that 3 very important counties in FL are controlled by Democrats.  They are the same Democrats and counties that  caused the debacle in 2000.  Make no mistake, the Dems CHEATED in FL in 2000.  I was there.  I saw it.  I get the impression that the Dems are getting desperate.  With a close election, possible coat-tails for R&R, they will not hesitate to bend the outcome to their advantage any way they can.  And not just in FL. · 34 minutes ago

     

    From tidbits I have been able to glean over the years I would say Ohio has a bigger problem than Florida in this department. 

    However, I think the Republican leadership in Florida sees that this could be an issue if it is close in Florida.  That is why they have been pushing so hard and not backing down from cleaning up the voter rolls despite all the Democrat demagoguery.

      

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    @Foxman
    Charles Rapp

     To be on the government dole is a passive activity · 34 minutes ago

    Is passive activity an oxymoron?  I’m not sure that I can come up with something better, but it feels wrong.

    • #30

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