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What is He Thinking? Trump on Putin and Israel
If at all possible, I try to avoid criticizing Donald Trump; I know the attacks I will be subject to from readers. But something is not quite right in the White House, and I’m concerned about Trump’s response to Putin’s vicious warring on Ukraine, as well as Trump’s interactions with Israel.
First, I’ve always been annoyed at how Trump sees his relationships with tyrants. Maybe it’s his way of buttering them up; he likes to imagine that he is best friends with all of them. Putin and Xi are the two current buddies that he has tried to imagine are his friends. Maybe that kind of flattery works with some monsters, but somehow, I think it’s not particularly effective with these fellows. I suspect that they think they are above friendships, which are a sign of weakness, and depicting these kinds of relationships could backfire on Trump.
For Trump to say that Putin is “crazy” is just plain silly. Putin is acting right in character, because it suits him at this time. For Trump to assume that he knows the minds of madmen is arrogant and foolish, and I’m quite tired of his bragging about his great relationships. To insult him by calling Putin crazy isn’t helpful.
I’m also concerned with Trump and his attitudes about Israel. I think he is trying to hold two paradoxical thoughts in his consciousness: one is that he fully supports Israel and wants them to defeat Hamas, and the other side of the paradox is that he wants the Gazan war over.
Good for him.
It’s not helpful for Trump to ignore situations that affect Israel, such as his negotiating with the Houthis to stop firing on ships without involving Israel, and convincing Hamas to release an Israeli-American without consulting Israel.
Does he have too much on his plate? Wouldn’t it make more sense to just severely sanction the Russians and help Israel bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities?
Isn’t it time to let go of the illusion that negotiating the deal always works?
Published in Foreign Policy
He is intensely frustrating isn’t he? The border and illegal immigration seem to be the only thing he sticks with.
Maybe he should contemplate why those have gone well, Andrew. It’s said his paying attention to his gut works for him, but I think he must have a bad case of indigestion right about now.
Do not bomb Iran. In case you missed it, Trump has spent the last 4 months aligning all the Sunni powers in the Middle East to pressure Iran into a no-nuclear deal. This is the best position we have been in since the 70’s.
Russia is already sanctioned as much as they can be. The problem with Russia and Ukraine is the western European powers are pushing for war. As long as those countries are driving for greater war, it is impossible for Trump to work out a deal where both sides feel like winners. Wars end with both sides choose to stop fighting or one side can’t fight anymore.
I didn’t miss it, Don . Plain and simple, Iran lies. They may end up with an agreement, but they will hide their non-compliance.
Doubt this.
He is definitely frustrating and exasperating. Things are not what you would expect based on what the media are saying. At first it seemed that Trump had found his footing on these matters, probing for an exit from Ukraine that concedes mostly russophilic territory without finishing off a generation of Ukrainian men or parading into WW III. As things stand now, Ukraine will walk away from the next negotiations in response to Russian terms and, in a year, Ukraine will be a smaller, less capable nation. I have seen several public figures argue that WW III will not include nukes across the street from the public figures arguing that nukes are old technology and no longer matter or, best yet, a limited nuclear war is safe and reasonable. Trump seems to understand the risks involved in WW III and that the US no longer cares about what Ukraine might leak about Biden payoffs.
The propaganda wave against Israel in the Gaza War is daunting, I think everyone would like it resolved, I don’t think Hamas is resolved until Iran is reined in, towards which flattening Gaza seems harsh but ineffective route.
The “solution” to all issues has been to send in the troops. The results have been damage to everyone involved. I worked with people going in and out of war zones. There is a price. Three of my coworkers were shot dead in a DC military installation as part of a wider mass shooting. I have been in military facilities that were locked down, under shelter in place rules while a gunman was hunted in the building.
Trump is all over the place some days. Trump’s negotiator, Kellogg, has a daughter who is president of an NGO providing aid to Ukraine. Trump makes noises about how people are close to agreement that have more to do with negotiating patter than the raw facts. Putin has not moved from his 2022 Istanbul position, except to add more territory that he now controls. If Trump supports the Kellogg plan and opens the spigot, Kellogg’s daughter profits. Is that the clean government Trump promised? Is using this guy even in America’s interest?
Trump has taken on the task of cleaning up a dangerously and malevolently corrupt government. If we take on the chaos of WW III now, the winners will be the grifters we never got around ejecting. It is not as if Biden left us with a full armory and a military poised to successfully execute a world war.
Believe it. The Lindsey Graham sanctions aren’t actually against Russia, but against countries caught trading with Russia. They are actually sanctions against China, India, and all of the Asian and African countries that are quite ready to trade US products for cheaper hydrocarbons. German industry is already at the battlements demanding the restoration of NordStream. Russia has already built BRICS and alternative systems of trade and payment. They are a continental power with all of the food and energy and minerals they need and no idiot phobias about exploiting them. If we roll out the Graham sanctions we will be Island America for a decade at least.
I voted for him with mixed feelings. I would have rather there been one of the other Republicans who ran to have been the nominee. Frankly, I’m still an advocate for Ron DeSantis.
There are times I cheer him on, and other times he scares the heck out of me. That’s especially true of his tariffs; he scares me.
For most of my adult life, I’ve been a conservative with values that include a lot of libertarianism. So I’m for limited government, where most of the power resides with the states and cities/villages. By today’s standards, I’m radical, to the point where I believe that the average taxpayer should be sending most of their money to states and their local government, not like it is now, where the majority of taxes goes to the feds.
One silver lining I would like to see, but I’m not holding my breath, is for conservatives and progressives to get together and decide that the presidency has too much power, now that the progressives no longer hold it. Let’s take away his emergency powers, including the power to tariff. Those belong in Congress’s hands anyway. Trump is actually the first Republican to abuse those powers. Reagan didn’t, neither of the Bushes didn’t. So from a progressive viewpoint, why not keep increasing the power of the presidency? They cheered when Obama said he had a phone and a pen, and proceeded to abuse his executive order powers. And then there was Trump.
My philosophy doesn’t win elections, so my philosophy has been sidelined by MAGA. But I still vote against the progressive Democrats. And with regards to the politicians I vote for or against, it’s almost all based on policy and not character. I recently admitted to myself that if I believed in the progressive policy as propagated by Joe Biden, his senility would not have made a difference. But unlike many of those progressives, I would have admitted that Biden was what he was. I’d like to think I have the same realistic view of Trump.
I’m starting to tire of Trump, even as I admit that I wouldn’t change my vote. There are some conservatives that continue to have faith in him, even as they admit he shouldn’t do some of the things he does. But there is the Biblical, “Put your faith not in Kings.”
He still has my trust with misgivings, but it’s pretty close on how long that will be.
Sisyphus, thank you for exploring this topic more deeply. I think your comments on Russia/Ukraine are probably accurate. I DO NOT want us to send in troops. That is unacceptable to me. And I didn’t know about Kellogg and his daughter. It’s all so frustrating. I understand what you are saying about sanctions and Russia, but it’s difficult for me to understand how there are no more options to punish them.
Thanks, Al. I think we’re nearly on the same page. I’m now feeling uneasy about all the power he is practicing, and wondering ultimately if it will work in everyone’s favor. And I’d love for the states and cities to get the bulk of funding. But no one is interested in my views. So I still find myself in the position of waiting and seeing.
I also try to let go of my annoyances about Trump’s behavior, but when I think they are having a direct impact on the behavior and actions of others, I become concerned.
I would say the European powers are terrified that the war will expand beyond Ukraine.
And I think they should be terrified.
They (NATO, mostly) are currently negotiating their 18th sanctions package. They are rediscovering Thomas Jefferson’s error in thinking that boycotts can replace and obsolesce war. These are the bumpkins who did and still do believe that we are past the end of history and war is obsolete. They have watch Russia through various stages of conflict for ten years and are now beginning to draft plans for meeting the challenge in five years (ref: Merz, Macron, Starmer). They have been counting on Russia collapsing from sanctions as their intelligence services assured them in perfect harmony, and now Russia is economically healthier than it has been since the Berlin Wall fell with minuscule debt and only minor inflation, despite the arming and weapons development, and apparent 4% growth. If they are lying, it is not obvious to visiting foreigners. Putin just spent four years building for WW III while Biden picked ice cream flavors.
An attack on NATO is a completely different situation. That is WW III and you go to war with the military you’ve got. That is not a war of choice, and the country who starts it will get the German/Japan post WW II treatment. If anyone survives. It is not a war to be asked for.
I don’t get Trump’s quick recognition of the new Syrian thug either. Help me, someone.
I prefer to think Trump is playing 4-D chess. Not because he is, but because I am not going to be able to stop him and wouldn’t be certain I was right in doing so. It still beats the alternative with which we were actually presented.
My two cents. The US worked to destabilize the Assad regime for many years, and now Assad is in Moscow. The new Assad is setting up a Sharia government as his reward for a career of terrorism. The quick recognition was more because, after 25 years of looking for fights everywhere climaxing with stupid on stupid like the Afghanistan pullout and gift of billions in equipment to the Taliban, the veteran US warfighter wants more reluctance and discernment. And occupations are a very unwelcome topic. We need to cool done, figure out and arm for WW III, while trying not to start it. And let our warfighters enjoy time with their families.
Sometimes warlords become rulers. It cannot happen unless we try to let it. Russia has drawn down its forces there for use elsewhere. If that means fewer Syrian refugees heading for Europe, that works.
Trump is not and should not be above criticism, but I’m having a hard time thinking of any responses to your comments on this that would constitute an “attack,’” although you’re a better judge of that. Admittedly, I do look for concrete missteps of policy, as opposed to negotiating tactics of various stripes that are just that.
“… arrogant and foolish”
I’m reluctantly coming to the conclusion that those three words describe our President in many, if not most, of his actions.
I knew that when I voted for him in 2016.
Better than Biden / Harris? That is highly probable. Better that DeSantis / Haley ? There is a range of rational opinion on that. I preferred either DeSantis or Haley, and I think the Trump administration is proving me correct.
Different parts of the base want different, perhaps contradictory, things when it comes to engagement in ‘foreign’ conflicts. It’s hard (impossible?) to give them all what they want.
The best/most effective sanction against Russia – and could be effective against Iran as well, perhaps others too – is likely driving down the price of oil to starve them of money.
Actually I was just thinking what an outstanding response we’ve been witnessing to this post!! I am a Trump supporter, so overall I want him to be successful and be smart. But many people feel they have to protect him and refuse to consider any criticism of him. Trying to be objective (and I do say “trying”) about his actions can only be helpful.
This comes down to choosing to squeeze China or Russia. China is clearly the greater threat and driving a wedge between Russia and China would help force China to play nice.
I have to assume he has information that we don’t. I also assume he’s not going to explain what he’s doing or why because he doesn’t want to reveal his strategy to his opponents. I don’t think it’s necessarily 4-D as much as holding his cards close to his chest . . .
I wish there were a way to negotiate Iran into giving up its nuclear program, but I don’t believe it can be done. They are going to make nuclear weapons, come hell or high water, unless the mullahs are overthrown. We’ve been hearing for many years that the Iranian people are sick of the theocracy and are just about ready to overthrow them, but nothing ever comes of it.
The “drive a wedge” strategy is dead for a generation. Xi has said explicitly that, if Europe directly intervenes in Ukraine (apparently meaning troops) that China would become more involved, themselves, on the Russian side. Pundits talk about economies in grand terms with abstract measures in fiat currencies, but industrial bases are what fight wars, and the industrial base you can count on is your own. Service economies go to war using sanctions, industrial economies make artillery shells. The industrial economies are lined up on the other side pumping out artillery shells that are currently targeting Ukraine.
The US no longer accounts for more than 5-6% of GDP for the CCP, and Trump has pricked their pride with his unilateral tariff surprises, marking the US as an unreliable trade partner. Tariffs are overdue, but the apparent abruptness does not play well to CCP vanity. I’m not saying we should be playing to CCP vanity, just that we should not be surprised when there are lasting consequences. Sources like the China Show podcast indicate a certain amount of pain on their part, but Russia is being a reliable supplier of cheap hydrocarbons and consumer of goods without the drama. China and Russia are the closest they have been since Nixon worked the wedge strategy. Trump 45 wooed the CCP until the Covid betrayal, Biden ran hot and cold on an almost transparent pay to play strategy, speaking loudly without really using his limp stick effectively.
Worse, the CCP is still a critical supplier of strategic medical and other goods to the US. The tariff show has created an incentive to shift that production home, but if that does materialize we are still dependent in the interim. When I was a kid we were in a Cold War and we were taught about securing strategic assets like South African chromium and blocking out the other guy’s access. Somewhere we likely have, we need to have, a propeller head who is tracking all of the vital resources the US needs, Russia needs, China needs, and feeding intelligence reports on crisis scenarios built on that data.
With regards to Iran and Russia: You can’t negotiate someone out of something they believe is in their best interest. All you can do is change the situation ( often by the threat or application of force ) so that they no longer believe it is worth the cost.
The Iranians need nuclear weapons to wipe out Israel and intimidate the USA. Putin needs to conquer Ukraine for his own political skin, and as a step in re-establishing the Russian or Soviet empires.