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(Completely) Amateur Observations on the Oval Office Debacle
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Steve wrote a fascinating post that generated some great discussion. Steve may be right about most of his points, and he knows a lot more about this sort of thing than I do. But I see this differently. I wonder if my take has crossed anyone else’s mind.
First, let me point out that when someone does something that looks stupid, it’s often because they’re in a very difficult situation. They’re desperate, there are no obvious sensible choices available to them, and they jump at the first opportunity to change things that they see. Whether it makes any sense or not. What choice do they have?
Zelensky is in a very, very difficult situation. First of all, he’s leading a country in a war that he simply cannot win. Without ENORMOUS help from America, this war would not have lasted this long. Even with America’s help, Ukraine is struggling to hang on. Secondly, how does Zelensky intend to retire? He’s 47 years old. He has a young family. Where will he go? What will he do? Putin has a long memory. The chances of Zelensky dying of old age are very small. What about his family?
He’s in a very, very difficult situation.
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My point is that I think Zelensky walked into that meeting planning to do exactly that. Make a scene. Stand up to the most powerful man in the world. Get the video clips he needs to play on the TV stations at home, over and over again.
He agreed to sign the agreement the next day. I doubt he changed his mind that fast. He had already planned to sign the agreement because it made sense for Ukraine. Once America has a financial interest in Ukraine, like mining operations, then that will provide Ukraine with a much better security guarantee than some piece of paper with a signature on it. He has to sign this.
But first, he needed to show the world that he’s not afraid of anything – not even the feared Donald Trump.
I could be wrong. But I think Zelensky is in a hopeless situation and is desperate to somehow demonstrate that he is a force to be reckoned with.
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And I think it worked. It helped some, at least. If I’m right about his goals for the meeting, I think it went as well as it could have for Zelensky.
Then he signs the agreement. But he doesn’t look like he was pressured to do so. He stood up to Trump. Even if he did give him exactly what he wanted.
I’ll give you one more guess – a bit more off the rails, but I think it might possibly be true: During the meeting, when Zelensky was lashing out, I think Trump may have suspected that Zelensky was playing the exact game I describe. I suspect that’s one reason Trump got so angry. He knew he was being played. At least, he suspected he was, but he wasn’t sure enough to say so at the time.
Flickr. Michael Vadon.
Again, I’m not sure about that last part. But Trump is really good at this sort of thing, and is very experienced in all sorts of negotiations. He’s probably seen this play before. Heck, he’s probably done it himself at some point in his career. You negotiate with whatever cards you have available at the time. Few people understand that better than Trump.
I have no idea what I’m talking about. Neither does anybody else. We don’t know what was said before that meeting, or what information the principals have at their disposal. We’re all speculating.
But when I saw that meeting, this was my first thought.
What do you think?
Published in General
Did Zelenskyy sign the deal the next day? All sorts of things are being reported, like Zelenskyy signed a deal with the UK last week.
Interesting take on the meeting from a different angle. Good post.
If the information came from the Trump White House, it probably isn’t true. It might be, but odds are against it. But if Trump and Zelensky both say he signed, he probably signed.
Part of the dynamic of the meeting is that, while Trump was addressing the press facing away from Zelensky, JD and Rubio were watching Zelensky roll his eyes and shake his head and scowl at Trump. While apologists flood the zone claiming cultural or language issues, just play the tape. Zelensky is not a novice at negotiating in English and is responsible for his own support in negotiations.
I fully agree with your point about a sense of desperation. I also believe he is desperate to discredit a Trump Administration that is poised to investigate his rumored malfeasance with regard to the handling of US military aid. That goes hand in hand with Zelensky’s “where is the money” and the missing $80 billion and such. Trump is focusing on peace first, which I fully support, but peace means an end to Zelensky’s leadership of Ukraine and much greater vulnerability to investigation. Trump’s focus on ending the violence in the face of stubborn European belligerence from all sides and parties and without raising distractions about the corruption that has riddled US-world relations. There is blame there on all sides, and not one man at arms should be left in harms way to thrash that part out.
Zelensky’s future looks grim indeed from where I sit.
No. Trump no longer trusts Zelensky to act as a peace partner and has stopped all military aid to Ukraine.
I thought he had stopped all aid, period, including the aid for restoring civilian energy infrastructure that was being targeted by Russian missiles. Is that not true?
The aid for restoring the energy infrastructure was withdrawn last week, almost immediately after the meeting.
Ooops. Double post.
That’s what I thought. It shows how Trump is a great champion of peace.
He is. Our continued support was contingent on participation in the peace process. Not a dime for endless war. The EU’s GDP dwarf’s Russia’s. We’re a third wheel in this, and there has been gross dishonesty by Ukraine, France, and the UK, and barking mad warmongering from Germany. The US is not interested in continuing to fund the meat grinder and the grift mill. There is no virtue in it.
You want us to give our tax dollars to someone we cannot trust? Ukraine is not owed anything by the US taxpayers. We’re supposed to keep shoveling money to a country whose representative cannot even say, “Thank you for what has come before. We know how generous you have been,” is that how this works?
Not last week. January. And part of that deal included allowing the UK to mine the rare earth metals.
I’m heartened to hear that Russia feels threatened by the “mad warmongering from Germany” and dishonesty from all the others. Sometimes it’s possible to get discouraged about the possibility of success in Ukraine’s efforts to resist Russian aggression, but this is good.
For 100 years.
Euros are trying to goad us into supplying bucks and boots.
Yes, it does indeed show how serious Trump is about pursuing peace. He just reduced Zelensky’s ability to continue opposing it, all while willing to withstand the inevitable caterwauling from the “Putin’s Puppet!” chorus and associated myrmidons.
Actually, if Trump cut off any and all tax dollars to be sent to Ukraine, I would be in favor, as long as he did a better job than Biden in sending weapons. The Europeans can handle the financial aid without our help, and a lot more of the military aid as well. I had kind of hoped Trump would continue to pressure for that, but instead he switched sides to provide active support for the bad guys.
And how many times does Zelensky have to say thank you before J.D. Vance is satisfied? It was nasty and petty for Trump to try to show him as ungrateful to the Europeans who have provided more financial support than we have. It’s almost as if he was trying to do Putin’s work of creating divisions between Ukraine and its supporters, but we can be thankful that Zelensky didn’t fall for it.
Zelensky has proved himself to be trustworthy enough to support. Putin has not. Trump has not.
And speaking of thankfulness, how many times has J.D. Vance thanked Ukraine and Zelensky for their work to combat the threat of World War III?
Should have sold them to Chynah.
Not even once, thankfully, since the premise is absurd.
So here we are. Trump wants peace.
Zelensky wants the war to continue, funded by other countries so he can do what? Defeat Russia? Take back lost Russian-speaking areas? Continue getting rich skimming money?
Euros fund the war with loans while we outright gave Ukraine funds and munitions. Trump wants Ukraine to repay us with a share of mineral rights and is condemn while his haters don’t condemn Euros for expecting loans to be repaid.
Zelensky is negotiating behind Trump’s back with Euros and Democrats. He lied to Trump about agreeing to a deal. He had already signed a deal with UK. So, he signed a deal rewarding those who made loans that must be paid back while stabbing the US in the back and demanding more funding and weapons from us and adding US boots on the ground as part of the demand.
Trump haters side with him. They also attack Trump for not attacking Putin while not explaining how that would help Trump negotiate a peace deal with Russia. Trump stood up for the US. Woosies clutch pearls.
I’m fed up with Ukraine. I’m reaching the point of not giving a crap about what happens to it.
Looks more like Z is trying to start it from where I sit.
In a war between Russia & Ukraine, I’m unsure who the bad guys are. Although I’m fairly sure of this: There are no good guys.
I’m not saying that America wouldn’t benefit if Ukraine won. That’s not obvious to me, but it’s possible.
But suggesting that one side is virtuous seems absurd to me.
I suspect there are some politicians who are grifting off of Ukraine.
Bingo
Joe Biden would be insulted at the mere suggestion of such corruption…
Heh.
I keep hearing this but am not persuaded. Given the disparity of force there is no way North Vietnam could win a war in South Vietnam against the U.S and allies. Nor could the Taliban beat the U.S in Afghanistan. More relevant, With Russia on its borders there is no way the Taliban could beat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. So we have 3 recent cases were the weaker forces prevailed because the stronger power gave up.
There is some analysis that contradicts the idea that on the battlefield Ukraine is struggling to hang on. All things considered they have done much better than expected. I think the the broad consensus is that the war is solidly stalemated and neither side has a prospect of quick victory.
I don’t back Zelenskyy over Trump, or the US. I back him over Putin, who has spent the last twenty five years calling the US Russia’s enemy.
It doesn’t seem to me that assuaging Ukraine’s very legitimate security concerns should be so tough. A few private assurances could have been made. The idea that a commercial agreement provides sufficient protection may not be laughable, but it would draw a snicker or two if that was all there was to be.
But Russia wants Ukraine more than they wanted Afghanistan or we wanted Vietnam.
And Russia is gaining ground.
we are all being played by the usual suspects.
https://spectator.org/the-evil-people-surrounding-volodymyr-zelenskyy/