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The Zelenskyy Gambit
Yesterday there was an announcement of a meeting between Zelenskyy and President Trump to sign some sort of deal whereby the US would get some economic benefit/access to/profits from Ukrainian rare earths and other commodities. Since there was a scheduled press conference and signing ceremony, one presumes that all the i’s had been dotted and t’s crossed. But at the press conference, Zellensky appears to have tried to extract some sort of additional security guarantees from the US. Maybe this works with other heads of state… in public with the cameras on, Zelenskyy could maneuver someone into agreeing to additional items that he couldn’t get in private. But if that was the gambit, it devolved into chaos with Trump & Vance. They wanted none of it, and now it appears that whatever deal there was going to be is off. Good for Trump & Vance. Don’t ever get played.
I disagree with the Trump policy on Ukraine. In general, I don’t give a hoot about Ukraine. I care not whether Zelenskyy is a traditional democrat or a dictator. It makes no difference to me. BUT… I perceive Russia to be as big a threat as China, and if the Ukrainians are willing to fight, I’m OK with funding them. But I think that the deal-that-almost-was… as I understand it… seemed to be genius. It provided economic benefits to the US, getting us back some of our money and providing a disincentive to Putin to continue his aggressive stance. I know it wasn’t everything Zelenskyy wanted. But it seems like it gave Zelenskyy lots of what he wanted without formally getting security assurances. Too bad he overplayed his hand. He forgot the old Reaganism… If somebody offers you half a loaf… TAKE IT!
Published in General
The spicy bits:
https://www.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1895535520836681851
Trump understands that if we are paying large sums of collapsing dollars to see young men killed and maimed, we will never make a world where everyone can prosper. Our drunken walk through the Middle East to no good end since 9/11 is vivid proof of that. We cannot make war until justice is served, there is no end of that. Putin and Trump will both face Judgement before they know it. He is restructuring the conversation to create a world where nations prosper together rather than wasting blood and treasure on an empty justice. I hope he succeeds.
Not sure exactly what happened, but it seems like Ukraine is expected to agree to their own destruction. Hopefully Ukraine will be able to fight on with only European support. Trump and Vance truly hate the Ukrainians and Zelensky for their own reasons. I do not see how strengthening Russia and Putin benefits the USA. It is one thing to abandon Ukraine; it is a different matter entirely to side with Russia and Putin against Ukraine. I hope we can retreat behind two oceans and survive on only our own resources, but I am not confident of that.
Europe was cranky about Trump negotiating with Putin directly. Well, they’ll get to run the negotiating show and finance it too. Zelenskyy has been saying that Ukraine wasn’t going to give up a square inch, which seemed pretty unrealistic. That’s a swell position to take when you’re not leaning on other countries to finance the war.
Trump is now officially the bad cop. It’s a good place to be.
If Putin offers you a cup of tea… don’t take it.
If Putin enters the room, leave.
Through the door, not the window.
Expected to agree to their own destruction? You must have read about a different deal than I did.
Trump is trying to keep Ukraine from losing a war of attrition. This doesn’t strengthen Russia. The war has weakened us. A peace deal doesn’t abandon Ukraine but after today, my only reaction is screw Ukraine.
Trump is trying to end our financial entanglement as quickly as possible. I think he would like to get a little revenge on Zelensky and Ukraine on the way out, and perhaps endear himself to Putin. Many Presidents have thought their great negotiating skills and winning personalities would endear them , and the USA, to Putin. It has never worked. I do not think Trump is concerned with the long term stability of any cease fire or truce – if Putin violates any agreement and attacks Ukraine again, not Trump’s problem. Ukraine, however, is trying to survive as an sovereign nation. When did you have a reaction other than “screw Ukraine”?
What is the reality on the ground? Despite three intense years of war after the Russian invasion and providing Ukraine munitions and hundreds of billions of dollars, Russia now controls enough Ukrainian territory in the eastern part of the country to effectively have a land bridge to Crimea. As long as Putin is Russia’s leader, this state of affairs is not likely to change without more intense fighting and a possible very dangerous escalation of the conflict that brings in other actors including China and/or includes the use of ICBMs.
The possibility of a wider war if a peace agreement is not reached and if the rare earth minerals deal is not signed by Zelenskyy (that his parliament has already ratified) may materialize in other theaters including in the Asian Pacific theater. The Chinese currently still control both ends of the Panama Canal. Note that China is already cutting communication cables in the Pacific and threatening Philippine vessels. China’s economy is in shambles and the CCP is trying to deal with unrest from workers who haven’t been paid for months who are setting power plants and factories on fire. So, diverting attention to other issues and holding forth the prospect of acquisition of more territory is tempting. Allowing China to get on a war footing is not a good idea.
Meanwhile, a great deal of Ukraine’s infrastructure lays in ruins and their ability to rebuild their economy is seriously hampered without the help of the United States and other investors. Looking to countries like Germany to do so, a country that currently can’t even manage their own economy, their own energy resources and still relies on Russia for LNG (liquid natural gas) from various European ports, or terror attacks from their Muslim immigrant population is laughable.
In addition to the rare earth minerals deal, Trump has been receptive to allowing British and French soldiers on the ground in Ukraine. This is still on the table and hasn’t been ruled out. These can be effective deterrents. A nuclear-armed Ukraine is not a good idea for a whole host of reasons. If Zelenskyy rejects the rare earth mineral deal and if he believes that other European countries have the will and the wherewithal to escalate a conflict with Russia that somehow won’t spread to other regions…good luck with that.
Is allowing Russia to keep the eastern provinces of Ukraine a concession? Yes, it is. Was that a result of Biden’s and Europe’s handling of the war? It’s also an acceptance of reality. Does the United States have any leverage short of all-out war or WWIII that involves other bad actors surfacing in other regions of the world, to extricate them from these provinces? I’m listening.
And while I’m at it, have tens of thousands of Chinese of military age entered the United States during the Biden administration who are now unaccounted for? Are thousands of Middle Eastern men of military age still at large in the United States?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-meeting-transcript-full-text-video-oval-office/
https://globalnews.ca/news/11059529/transcript-trump-zelenskyy-vance-meeting/
Read the above. Trump and Vance went into the Press conference intending to humiliate Zelensky and put him in his place. Zelensky is not wrong to distrust any “Peace” negotiated between two parties that both hate Ukraine. If Zelensky is smart, he will tell the USA “Thanks , but no thanks” to any aid offers from the USA and either attempt to get aid from the europeans , or resign himself to guerilla warfare. The Trump administration has no interest in the long term survival of an independent, sovereign Ukraine, and appears to want to actively work against it.
What, in your mind, constitutes long-term stability? Trump sees stability in business terms. People making money together tend to not want to kill each other. They consider themselves to be allies. That is what this deal was meant to achieve. Rather than costing hundreds of billions of dollars and only creating more heat ( the military option), this deal was meant to make everyone hundreds of billions and create peace ( the business option). Zelensky blew the business deal up very publicly and unexpectedly. That was not smart.
Did you read the transcripts? I don’t think Zelensky “blew the business deal up very publicly and unexpectedly”. I think he failed to kiss the ring. I am all for Peace. This looks more like the “Peace with Honor” at the end of Vietnam.
To answer your question : Long-Term stability would not have Russia conquering Ukraine in 2 to 10 years. No, I do not know how to achieve that. This “Peace” looks designed to just give us time to get out.
Did you watch the session linked in comment 1?
Only as long as they can export oil. Their workforce is aging out and their youth is leaving the country. They’ll be able to hold Europe hostage for LNG exports, but Europe is self-mutilating their economy and won’t be able to pay the Danegeld Moscow will have to demand to maintain its relevance.
As for Ukraine security guarantees, what could be a better guarantee than cementing American economic interests and intertwining them with your domestic economy?
Why yes I did. I heard Trump and Vance asking questions, and not allowing to Zelensky to answer. Talking over him. Vance’s key point was that Zelensky campaigned for Biden in Pennsylvania.
I do not know if that was Vance’s key point, but it certainly was another stupid thing for Zelensky to have done. It may have been illegal, btw.
Sharyl Attkisson chimes in on Z’s performance:
https://www.twitter.com/sharylattkisson/status/1895590138669056370?s=61
My comments embedded.
Was stupid, may have been illegal. However, it is the window through which to understand all of Trump’s and Vance’s positions on Ukraine.
Ukraine distracts, disarms, and weakens us in the face of the growing threat from China.
Cementing American economic interests would be a great and smart thing. I think the correct mix and quantity of weapons, and maybe European boots on the ground would be necessary also.
Not only did you read about a different deal, you watched a different video where Zelensky wasn’t an ass. The only problem is there isn’t another video.
Trump wants peace bad enough to be angry at Zelensky’s refusal to embrace it. Zelensky is powerless to bring as much security to his country as Trump is offering in this deal. It is pointless to pretend his argument justifies refusing the deal. He wants us to commit boots and bucks and doesn’t want to pay for the effort.
Zelensky played the first year of the war brilliantly. But since then, Z and many Ukrainian supporters have been laying land mines for themselves by vocally favoring one side in the US political wars – as witness this thread, and the known allegiances of its contenders. Today Zelensky stepped on one of those land mines. I abhor Putin, and have wished the best for Ukraine, but the current situation is non-viable.
There is public interest among members to convene an emergency session of the Ukrainian parliament to initiate impeachment proceedings against Zelenskyy, so maybe keep that screw Ukraine thingy in reserve for the moment.
Russia conquer Ukraine in 10 years? Or maybe Putin wants an end that allows him to save face. He might not want to take another bite of the apple in a few years.
That is a great theory. Two Questions:
Russia attacked Ukraine for national prestige and empire reasons, not financial.
Even Lindsey Graham: “It’s hard to stand with a leader (Zelensky) who doesn’t recognize the moment he is in.”