Deutschland hat gewählt…

 

…ja, ja, und wie. Ich weiß schon. Henry Olsen’s coverage is already linked and pinned up there somewhere. Vrouwe and I are sitting here watching the coverage from Die Welt online TV. The results, comparing Die Welt with Das Erste (ARD), currently read:

CDU/CSU: 28.4% (28.9% according to ARD)

AfD: 20.1% (19.9.% according to ARD)

SPD: 16.3% (16.2% ARD)

Grüne: 12.4% (13% ARD)

Die Linke: 8.8% (8.5% ARD)

FDP: 5.0% (4.9% ARD)

BSW: 5.0% (4.8%)

The FDP may be out of the government and the BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht- leftwingers who were dissatisfied with die Linke) may not get into the Parliament. More later.

UPDATE:

Na, also: The FDP is out, unless something remarkable happens in the next couple of hours. Christian Lindner’s political career is likely over. Olaf Scholz’s career may be as well. There is already talk of replacing him as SPD chief with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

The next chancellor is officially Friedrich Merz. Trump posted on Truth Social to congratulate him already. The problem? His CDU/CSU has the second-worst results in the history of the Federal Republic. Their only possible coalition is a “Kenia” coalition (SPD/Red, Green, CDU/Black)  with both the SPD (which got its worst results in the party’s history) and the Greens. Commentators are calling this a “toxic” coalition because of the amount of bad blood between the CDU/CSU and the Greens. CSU head and Governor of Bavaria, Dr. Markus Söder, has said that he does not favor a coalition with “these Greens,” meaning the current leadership from Robert Haebeck (Minister for Economics and the Environment) and Annalena Baerbock (Foreign Minister).  The Greens, for their part, have stated vehemently and repeatedly that they don’t want to build a coalition with the CDU because they secured legislation with votes from the AfD earlier this month.

And what about the AfD? They are the second largest party in the country now, and no one wants to form a coalition with them. The problem there is that sooner or later, if the trend continues, it will be impossible to form a government without the AfD. In Thuringia and Saxony it almost is so already, at the state level. Party head Dr. Alice Weidel was quite pleased with her party’s results this evening. They nearly doubled their results from the national elections four years ago.  Interestingly, polls show that a paper-thin 51% majority would favor a coalition including the AfD if that is what is needed to get a coaltion.

The biggest surprises to me were the underperformance of the CDU/CSU and the success of Die Linken. That the BSW may yet make it into the Bundestag is not a huge surprise, but not a good development, either. I quite expected the AfD to do well. What happens next? We see if the Greens and the CDU can work together.

Published in Elections
This post was promoted to the Main Feed at the recommendation of Ricochet members. Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 23 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    Our man in Saxony, looking forward to your thoughts.

    • #1
  2. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Never mind.

    • #2
  3. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Unfortunately for Germany the young, 18-24 seem to like the Commies, Die Linken.

    Interesting that the people with actual experience with Communists, the former East Germans went for AfD.

     

    • #3
  4. Steve Fast Member
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    What impact did Musk’s and Vance’s endorsements of AfD have on its polling results? I’ve read a few predictions that they would hurt AfD due to a reaction against perceived American meddling in German affairs.

     

    • #4
  5. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Fascinating map of the results:

     

    The contours of the area won by the AfD, to my eye and recollection, pretty much follow the old border between East and West Germany.

    • #5
  6. Steve Fast Member
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Steve Fast (View Comment):

    What impact did Musk’s and Vance’s endorsements of AfD have on its polling results? I’ve read a few predictions that they would hurt AfD due to a reaction against perceived American meddling in German affairs.

    To answer my own question, AfD was not much affected by American endorsements. It reached its peak since January 2024 at 21% at the end of January 2025. It had dropped to a bit to 20.4% by 22 February, and it got 20.8% in the vote results. So it looks like the American endorsements (or interference, depending on your point of view) didn’t make much difference.

    I wonder if the anti-Americanism of the AfD meant that voters were less likely to be swayed for or against it by Musk’s and Vance’s endorsements.

     

    • #6
  7. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Fascinating map of the results:

     

    The contours of the area won by the AfD, to my eye and recollection, pretty much follow the old border between East and West Germany.

    With the exception of that Wahlkreis there in Baden-Württemberg, ja und wie.

    • #7
  8. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Unfortunately for Germany the young, 18-24 seem to like the Commies, Die Linken.

    Interesting that the people with actual experience with Communists, the former East Germans went for AfD.

     

    Here is a breakdown of the under 25/over 60 vote:

    https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/bundestag/2025/berlin-brandenburg-stimmanteil-altersgruppen-junge-linke-alte-cdu.html

    The AfD did pretty well with the younger voters. It seems however that all the “It’s 1933 again!!!” fearmongering aimed at credulous young voters did result in a turnout for die Linken. I don’t think many if any of the voters who chose that party would have gone for the AfD under any circumstances. More likely these are ex-SPDlers who thought Sarah Wagenknecht was too Putin-friendly for their tastes.

    • #8
  9. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    And the latest election fall-out is that Habeck has resigned, and the Greens have been informed that their participation “is not needed” in the new coalition, which, apparently, will be only the CDU and SPD.

    • #9
  10. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):

    And the latest election fall-out is that Habeck has resigned, and the Greens have been informed that their participation “is not needed” in the new coalition, which, apparently, will be only the CDU and SPD.

    So a new coat of paint on the same-ol-same-ol.

    • #10
  11. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Percival (View Comment):

    Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):

    And the latest election fall-out is that Habeck has resigned, and the Greens have been informed that their participation “is not needed” in the new coalition, which, apparently, will be only the CDU and SPD.

    So a new coat of paint on the same-ol-same-ol.

    Most likely. In other words, nothing like what the voters wanted.

    • #11
  12. FrankTorson Member
    FrankTorson
    @FrankTorson

    Germany’s Merz vows ‘independence’ from Trump’s America, warning NATO may soon be dead

    Election winner likens the Trump administration to Putin’s Russia as he bids to take Europe in a new direction.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-germany-election-united-states-donald-trump-nato/

    Friedrich Merz did not even wait for the final results in Germany’s election before delivering what could well be a defining verdict on U.S. President Donald Trump, consigning Europe’s 80-year alliance with the United States to the past.

    The Trump administration does not care about Europe and is aligning with Russia, said Merz, who is on course to become Germany’s new leader. The continent, he warned, must urgently strengthen its defenses and potentially even find a replacement for NATO — within months.

    Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting said. “I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”

    Merz, a staunch Atlanticist who has spent much of his professional career as a lawyer working with and for American firms, didn’t stop there. Later this year, a NATO summit will be held — but he suggested Europe may need to devise a new defense structure to replace it.

    “I am very curious to see how we are heading toward the NATO summit at the end of June,” he said. “Whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.”

     

    “I have absolutely no illusions about what is happening from America,” Merz said during a televised debate on Sunday night. “Just look at the recent interventions in the German election campaign by Mr. Elon Musk — that is a unique event. The interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow. We are under such massive pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now really is to create unity in Europe.”

    • #12
  13. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    FrankTorson (View Comment):
    Election winner likens the Trump administration to Putin’s Russia as he bids to take Europe in a new direction.

    Translation: “The stuff I ran on was fluff, I’m making up stuff as an excuse to move left from the CDU’s electoral campaign positions.”

     

    • #13
  14. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    “There is already talk of replacing him as SPD chief with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.”

    Sorry, Pistorius doesn’t have a leg stand on.

    (…although perhaps that joke only works in South Africa.)

     

    • #14
  15. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    It’s amazing how exacting those East Germany lines are.  You would kind of think that a few small areas just across the bounder or nearby would have opposite views, but that’s just not the case.

    • #15
  16. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    It’s amazing how exacting those East Germany lines are. You would kind of think that a few small areas just across the bounder or nearby would have opposite views, but that’s just not the case.

    The Ossis didn’t realize that reunification meant that they’d be saddled with all those Commies.

    • #16
  17. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Herr Merz, I can’t make it any simpler than this: Das Problem kann nicht gelöst werden, wenn wir verbieten, darüber zu sprechen. Verstehen Sie?

    • #17
  18. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    Percival (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    It’s amazing how exacting those East Germany lines are. You would kind of think that a few small areas just across the bounder or nearby would have opposite views, but that’s just not the case.

    The Ossis didn’t realize that reunification meant that they’d be saddled with all those Commies.

    Ha!  — once I interpreted the joke.

    Merkel was from the East.

    Wait a minute.  She was born in the West, but her parents moved to the East.

    How messed up is that?  How many other families did that?

    “Merkel was born in Hamburg in West Germany (in 1954).  Her family moved to East Germany when she was an infant.”

    Quora.com: “The Kastners, Merkels parents, moved to East Germany because her father was offered a job as a pastor in a town which happened to be situated in the soviet occupation zone.  It was 1954. The German partition was not finished yet and far away from being an accomplished fact. Germans could move from East to West and vice versa any time, even every day to work or get a haircut. Until 1968, both German states joined to built one team at the Olympic Games.  It was 1954. Socialist education and collectivization had started, but did not finish to reach the hearts and the minds of the people. Same goes for oppressing the church.  Furthermore, the Protestant church in the former GDR was never suppressed that much like other churches in the Eastern bloc, e.g. like Catholics in Poland.  So, to make a long story short; In my opinion, the father of Angela Merkel, Herr Kastner, just took a job opportunity. He was no martyr. He did not send out a special sign to the oppressed people in the world. He had no altruistic reasons. He just wanted to get a decent job.”

    • #18
  19. FrankTorson Member
    FrankTorson
    @FrankTorson

    From the BBC:

    New German leader signals seismic shift in transatlantic relations

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4n0dg3v3o

    Big European powers have been shocked to the core by the Trump administration, which suggests it could revoke the security guarantees to Europe in place since 1945.

    “I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week… it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe,” Friedrich Merz said during a post-election debate on Sunday.

    “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he added.

    Merz hinted that the endeavour was so urgent that he was not sure on whether the transatlantic alliance leaders gathering for a summit in June “would still be talking about Nato in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.

    • #19
  20. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    FrankTorson (View Comment):

    From the BBC:

    New German leader signals seismic shift in transatlantic relations

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4n0dg3v3o

    Big European powers have been shocked to the core by the Trump administration, which suggests it could revoke the security guarantees to Europe in place since 1945.

    “I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week… it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe,” Friedrich Merz said during a post-election debate on Sunday.

    “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he added.

    Merz hinted that the endeavour was so urgent that he was not sure on whether the transatlantic alliance leaders gathering for a summit in June “would still be talking about Nato in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.

    Der Idiot. Like they achieved independence from Moscow? They pay more for gas from Moscow than they send as aid to Ukraine. They’re funding both sides.

    Let’s see, I’m going to go into negotiations with someone and I want him to make steps toward my goal. Right before I do that, someone demands I publicly call that person a “dictator.” Sure, I’m going to do that and undermine the goals that, by the way, serve the interests of Europe. 

    • #20
  21. FrankTorson Member
    FrankTorson
    @FrankTorson

    Donald Trump Jr.

    “I honestly can’t imagine that anyone in their right mind would be picking Ukraine as an ally when Russia is the other option, the US should have been sending weapons to Russia.”

    Maybe Donald Trump Jr. has views that are different from his father’s views.  But I wonder if it is talk like this that Europe is reacting to.

    This Donald Trump Jr. quote above appears to be fake.  

    Also this:

    President Trump:

    “The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States, that’s the purpose of it. And they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president.”

    Is it this sort of thing that spooks European leaders?

    Also this:

    “Donald Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from the EU.”

    • #21
  22. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    FrankTorson (View Comment):

    Donald Trump Jr.

    “I honestly can’t imagine that anyone in their right mind would be picking Ukraine as an ally when Russia is the other option, the US should have been sending weapons to Russia.”

    Maybe Donald Trump Jr. has views that are different from his father’s views. But I wonder if it is talk like this that Europe is reacting to.

    Also this:

    President Trump:

    “The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States, that’s the purpose of it. And they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president.”

    Is it this sort of thing that spooks European leaders?

    Also this:

    “Donald Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from the EU.”

    If reciprocity on tariffs is your game, 25% on cars imported from Germany would not even be parity with the total import duties (turnover tax +import tax) on cars newer than 30 years old) charged on American cars imported to Germany, which is currently 29%.  Other goods have taxes and duties that start at 7% or 19% (depending on category) turnover tax plus import tax, plus EU tax for any goods exceeding 150 or 700€ in value (again, depending on category). In short, Europeans who are complaining about Trump’s tariff proposals are not doing so from a position of moral strength.

    • #22
  23. FrankTorson Member
    FrankTorson
    @FrankTorson

    I’ve read that the Donald Trump Jr. quote about “the US should have been sending weapons to Russia,” is fake.  

    • #23
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.