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Deutschland hat gewählt…
…ja, ja, und wie. Ich weiß schon. Henry Olsen’s coverage is already linked and pinned up there somewhere. Vrouwe and I are sitting here watching the coverage from Die Welt online TV. The results, comparing Die Welt with Das Erste (ARD), currently read:
CDU/CSU: 28.4% (28.9% according to ARD)
AfD: 20.1% (19.9.% according to ARD)
SPD: 16.3% (16.2% ARD)
Grüne: 12.4% (13% ARD)
Die Linke: 8.8% (8.5% ARD)
FDP: 5.0% (4.9% ARD)
BSW: 5.0% (4.8%)
The FDP may be out of the government and the BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht- leftwingers who were dissatisfied with die Linke) may not get into the Parliament. More later.
UPDATE:
Na, also: The FDP is out, unless something remarkable happens in the next couple of hours. Christian Lindner’s political career is likely over. Olaf Scholz’s career may be as well. There is already talk of replacing him as SPD chief with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
The next chancellor is officially Friedrich Merz. Trump posted on Truth Social to congratulate him already. The problem? His CDU/CSU has the second-worst results in the history of the Federal Republic. Their only possible coalition is a “Kenia” coalition (SPD/Red, Green, CDU/Black) with both the SPD (which got its worst results in the party’s history) and the Greens. Commentators are calling this a “toxic” coalition because of the amount of bad blood between the CDU/CSU and the Greens. CSU head and Governor of Bavaria, Dr. Markus Söder, has said that he does not favor a coalition with “these Greens,” meaning the current leadership from Robert Haebeck (Minister for Economics and the Environment) and Annalena Baerbock (Foreign Minister). The Greens, for their part, have stated vehemently and repeatedly that they don’t want to build a coalition with the CDU because they secured legislation with votes from the AfD earlier this month.
And what about the AfD? They are the second largest party in the country now, and no one wants to form a coalition with them. The problem there is that sooner or later, if the trend continues, it will be impossible to form a government without the AfD. In Thuringia and Saxony it almost is so already, at the state level. Party head Dr. Alice Weidel was quite pleased with her party’s results this evening. They nearly doubled their results from the national elections four years ago. Interestingly, polls show that a paper-thin 51% majority would favor a coalition including the AfD if that is what is needed to get a coaltion.
The biggest surprises to me were the underperformance of the CDU/CSU and the success of Die Linken. That the BSW may yet make it into the Bundestag is not a huge surprise, but not a good development, either. I quite expected the AfD to do well. What happens next? We see if the Greens and the CDU can work together.
Published in Elections
Our man in Saxony, looking forward to your thoughts.
Never mind.
Unfortunately for Germany the young, 18-24 seem to like the Commies, Die Linken.
Interesting that the people with actual experience with Communists, the former East Germans went for AfD.
What impact did Musk’s and Vance’s endorsements of AfD have on its polling results? I’ve read a few predictions that they would hurt AfD due to a reaction against perceived American meddling in German affairs.
Fascinating map of the results:
The contours of the area won by the AfD, to my eye and recollection, pretty much follow the old border between East and West Germany.
To answer my own question, AfD was not much affected by American endorsements. It reached its peak since January 2024 at 21% at the end of January 2025. It had dropped to a bit to 20.4% by 22 February, and it got 20.8% in the vote results. So it looks like the American endorsements (or interference, depending on your point of view) didn’t make much difference.
I wonder if the anti-Americanism of the AfD meant that voters were less likely to be swayed for or against it by Musk’s and Vance’s endorsements.
With the exception of that Wahlkreis there in Baden-Württemberg, ja und wie.
Here is a breakdown of the under 25/over 60 vote:
https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/bundestag/2025/berlin-brandenburg-stimmanteil-altersgruppen-junge-linke-alte-cdu.html
The AfD did pretty well with the younger voters. It seems however that all the “It’s 1933 again!!!” fearmongering aimed at credulous young voters did result in a turnout for die Linken. I don’t think many if any of the voters who chose that party would have gone for the AfD under any circumstances. More likely these are ex-SPDlers who thought Sarah Wagenknecht was too Putin-friendly for their tastes.
And the latest election fall-out is that Habeck has resigned, and the Greens have been informed that their participation “is not needed” in the new coalition, which, apparently, will be only the CDU and SPD.
So a new coat of paint on the same-ol-same-ol.
Most likely. In other words, nothing like what the voters wanted.
Germany’s Merz vows ‘independence’ from Trump’s America, warning NATO may soon be dead
Election winner likens the Trump administration to Putin’s Russia as he bids to take Europe in a new direction.
https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-germany-election-united-states-donald-trump-nato/
Translation: “The stuff I ran on was fluff, I’m making up stuff as an excuse to move left from the CDU’s electoral campaign positions.”
“There is already talk of replacing him as SPD chief with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.”
Sorry, Pistorius doesn’t have a leg stand on.
(…although perhaps that joke only works in South Africa.)
It’s amazing how exacting those East Germany lines are. You would kind of think that a few small areas just across the bounder or nearby would have opposite views, but that’s just not the case.
The Ossis didn’t realize that reunification meant that they’d be saddled with all those Commies.
Herr Merz, I can’t make it any simpler than this: Das Problem kann nicht gelöst werden, wenn wir verbieten, darüber zu sprechen. Verstehen Sie?
Ha! — once I interpreted the joke.
Merkel was from the East.
Wait a minute. She was born in the West, but her parents moved to the East.
How messed up is that? How many other families did that?
“Merkel was born in Hamburg in West Germany (in 1954). Her family moved to East Germany when she was an infant.”
…
Quora.com: “The Kastners, Merkels parents, moved to East Germany because her father was offered a job as a pastor in a town which happened to be situated in the soviet occupation zone. It was 1954. The German partition was not finished yet and far away from being an accomplished fact. Germans could move from East to West and vice versa any time, even every day to work or get a haircut. Until 1968, both German states joined to built one team at the Olympic Games. It was 1954. Socialist education and collectivization had started, but did not finish to reach the hearts and the minds of the people. Same goes for oppressing the church. Furthermore, the Protestant church in the former GDR was never suppressed that much like other churches in the Eastern bloc, e.g. like Catholics in Poland. So, to make a long story short; In my opinion, the father of Angela Merkel, Herr Kastner, just took a job opportunity. He was no martyr. He did not send out a special sign to the oppressed people in the world. He had no altruistic reasons. He just wanted to get a decent job.”
From the BBC:
Der Idiot. Like they achieved independence from Moscow? They pay more for gas from Moscow than they send as aid to Ukraine. They’re funding both sides.
Let’s see, I’m going to go into negotiations with someone and I want him to make steps toward my goal. Right before I do that, someone demands I publicly call that person a “dictator.” Sure, I’m going to do that and undermine the goals that, by the way, serve the interests of Europe.
Donald Trump Jr.
Maybe Donald Trump Jr. has views that are different from his father’s views. But I wonder if it is talk like this that Europe is reacting to.This Donald Trump Jr. quote above appears to be fake.
Also this:
President Trump:
Is it this sort of thing that spooks European leaders?
Also this:
If reciprocity on tariffs is your game, 25% on cars imported from Germany would not even be parity with the total import duties (turnover tax +import tax) on cars newer than 30 years old) charged on American cars imported to Germany, which is currently 29%. Other goods have taxes and duties that start at 7% or 19% (depending on category) turnover tax plus import tax, plus EU tax for any goods exceeding 150 or 700€ in value (again, depending on category). In short, Europeans who are complaining about Trump’s tariff proposals are not doing so from a position of moral strength.
I’ve read that the Donald Trump Jr. quote about “the US should have been sending weapons to Russia,” is fake.