Running AMOC

 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. More commonly known as the Gulf Stream to everyone not attempting to dazzle peer review editors with Bull$tuff. The primary driver of the Gulf Stream is salinity in the North Atlantic; the higher the saline content, the further north the Gulf Stream will drive before the salty, warm water from the Caribbean Sea drops to the bottom of the ocean. This happens in an area called the North Atlantic Sink. Freshwater outputs from rivers in Europe and Canada, along with glacial melts, dilute the waters in the North Atlantic, meaning that the water from the Caribbean is saltier and heavier than the waters in the North Atlantic. The Gulf Stream is balanced by an undercurrent at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean that returns the cold water back to the Caribbean Sea. This circulation is slowing.

This circulation moderates the climate of Western and Northern Europe. London, England, for example, is at the same latitude as Calgary, AB, Canada (North of Toronto). Yet Calgary gets snow (normally) and London gets rain. Lots and lots of rain. But imagine that rain is a few degrees cooler, and it’s now snow. How would the UK manage, or Ireland and Western Europe?

Maybe an ice age is too strong of a prediction. But it would result in a sudden massive disruption to our normal weather patterns. Climate hysteria? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Published in General
This post was promoted to the Main Feed at the recommendation of Ricochet members. Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 17 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    My sister is an oceanographer at Woods Hole.  She’s brilliant.  She spent quite some time studying the Gulf Stream.

    She said there are several ways to identify it.  The water in Gulf Stream is a different temperature than the surrounding ocean, so you can trace it using satellite thermal imaging.  It is also about 3 feet higher than the surrounding ocean – sort of a big moving pile of water, if you can imagine.  So you can trace the elevation changes.  It also has different types of fish, different types of algae, and all sorts of other qualities that you can trace out on a map.

    The problem is that all those lines are in different places.  So we don’t really know what the Gulf Stream is, at this point.

    These currents have been around for billions of years, but we only have about 40 years worth of satellite data.  So we’re not sure how much variability is normal.

    We have no idea how all this works.  Yet leftists say “The science is settled.”

    Right.

    • #1
  2. DonG (¡Afuera!) Coolidge
    DonG (¡Afuera!)
    @DonG

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):
    We have no idea how all this works.  Yet leftists say “The science is settled.”

    Yep.   The only thing settled is that I must give up my SUV and live in a yurt.   Ocean flows are bigger mystery than air flows (especially in 3 dimensions) and define climate.  

    • #2
  3. OldPhil Coolidge
    OldPhil
    @OldPhil

    Benjamin Franklin Was the First to Chart the Gulf Stream | Smithsonian

    Portrait of Benjamin Franklin - The Observation Deck

    • #3
  4. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    OccupantCDN: But imagine that rain is a few degrees cooler, and its now snow. How would the UK manage, or Ireland and Western Europe?

    They’d manage the situation using the same proven techniques they apply today to control anthropogenic global warming. They’d harness their subject population to make the appropriate sacrifices to the mother goddess, and all would be well. I don’t know why this is controversial – it’s been the way of the elite since the Inca and Maya cultures. 

    • #4
  5. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    This, along with a sudden release of methane trapped in clathrates on the north Atlantic ocean bottom, is one of the potential tipping-point scenarios most often cited by climate alarmists.

    While I don’t trust reporting on climate science, the mechanism by which the AMOC might slow seems pretty straightforward and plausible. I’m generally skeptical about climate alarmism, and think we’re probably better off with a somewhat warmer, wetter, more CO2-rich world anyway, but I have to admit that it would be unfortunate to watch Europe enter another mini-ice age any time soon.

    Still…

    All that warmth has to go somewhere, and part of it will creep up the eastern coast of the United States, even warming the area up near where I live. And the wind chill is 6° out there right now.

    So, you know. Every cloud and all that.

    • #5
  6. She Member
    She
    @She

    OccupantCDN: This circulation moderates the climate of Western and Northern Europe. London, England, for example, is at the same latitude as Calgary, AB, Canada (North of Toronto). Yet Calgary gets snow (normally) and London gets rain. Lots and lots of rain. But imagine that rain is a few degrees cooler, and it’s now snow. How would the UK manage, or Ireland and Western Europe?

    Very poorly, I expect.  Even today, the level of hysteria that pertains when significant weather events hit the UK are hard to imagine.  They have the “Yellow, Amber, Red” system for very effectively wholesaling panic among the population.  Temperatures below freezing (or “subzero” as they like to say, given that their measurements are Celsius) cause widespread alarm, and cold temperatures and snowfalls of more than an inch or two involve the NHS (which, in spite of its 8-million plus person appointment backlog  apparently has all the time in the world on its hands) issuing warnings and recommendations with excruciating detail on how to dress for the cold, how to safely fill a hot water bottle, (this recent one caused widespread mirth among the Boomers and remnants of the Greatest Generation) and how to keep warm in their drafty houses now that winter fuel supplemental allowances for old-age-pensioners have been revoked, energy prices are some of the highest (if not the highest) in the world, and a great many older houses still don’t have central heating at all, and nothing infrastructure-wise to replace their now illegal old coal fireplaces, so the old folks sit shivering in front of the stove in the kitchen, or wrapped in an electric blanket in the living room.  (Buying an electric blanket to keep warm was suggested as part of a series of government recommendations to find affordable ways for old people to survive an unusually cold spell.)

    The UK has just endured a 1-2 punch from a couple of really severe winter storms, (90-100 mile-an-hour winds, and unusually large snowfalls) and the fallout has been dire.  Many of the elderly population really don’t have the money or the wherewithal to stay warm, and if they don’t have family members, friends, or helpful neighbors, they’re in real trouble.  (Lots of village shops bring in chairs and set up times of day when people are welcome to come in (if they can get there) and warm up, if they don’t have any means of doing so at home.)

    There’s very little in the way of heavy equipment to clear the roads of snow and ice, and not much grit or salt to help melt it.  There have been times in the past where a snowfall of 2-3 inches, followed by what I’d call rather decent winter weather (temps in the 30s and low 40sF during the day, and in the high 20s, low 30s at night) can shut things down for several days.  Nobody goes out.  Nobody goes to work.

    Down here in SouthWest PA, on top of a total of about ten inches of snow that had fallen over about 72 hours, it was -18.6F at 6AM a few days ago.  (That’s colder than the coldest temperature ever recorded in the British Isles.) I got up, got dressed (“there is no bad weather; there are only bad clothes,” as the late Queen used to say), and went outside to do the chores.  The following day, I was in the car and driving up the road.  

    I suppose it’s possible to get used to almost anything.  But the UK won’t go gently into the cold, I’m sure.

    • #6
  7. Aaron Parmelee Member
    Aaron Parmelee
    @AaronParmelee

    We are currently in an ice age.

    • #7
  8. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Barfly (View Comment):

    OccupantCDN: But imagine that rain is a few degrees cooler, and its now snow. How would the UK manage, or Ireland and Western Europe?

    They’d manage the situation using the same proven techniques they apply today to control anthropogenic global warming. They’d harness their subject population to make the appropriate sacrifices to the mother goddess, and all would be well. I don’t know why this is controversial – it’s been the way of the elite since the Inca and Maya cultures.

    Instead of sacrificing hearts like the Aztecs, our culture sacrifices the pre-born. 

    • #8
  9. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    OccupantCDN: But imagine that rain is a few degrees cooler, and its now snow. How would the UK manage, or Ireland and Western Europe?

    They’d manage the situation using the same proven techniques they apply today to control anthropogenic global warming. They’d harness their subject population to make the appropriate sacrifices to the mother goddess, and all would be well. I don’t know why this is controversial – it’s been the way of the elite since the Inca and Maya cultures.

    Instead of sacrificing hearts like the Aztecs, our culture sacrifices the pre-born.

    They’ve also been importing their own Aztecs as well. With a little practice I am sure these modern Aztecs would have a solid method of cutting out the hearts of Europeans.

    • #9
  10. RetiredActuary Coolidge
    RetiredActuary
    @RetiredActuary

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    My sister is an oceanographer at Woods Hole. She’s brilliant. She spent quite some time studying the Gulf Stream.

    She said there are several ways to identify it. The water in Gulf Stream is a different temperature than the surrounding ocean, so you can trace it using satellite thermal imaging. It is also about 3 feet higher than the surrounding ocean – sort of a big moving pile of water, if you can imagine. So you can trace the elevation changes. It also has different types of fish, different types of algae, and all sorts of other qualities that you can trace out on a map.

    The problem is that all those lines are in different places. So we don’t really know what the Gulf Stream is, at this point.

    These currents have been around for billions of years, but we only have about 40 years worth of satellite data. So we’re not sure how much variability is normal.

    We have no idea how all this works. Yet leftists say “The science is settled.”

    Right.

    On or near January 20, I saw a story saying that Woods Hole had issued a report showing no change in that conveyer belt Atlantic current that seems to be the concern.  No guarantees it won’t change in the future, but so far not.

    • #10
  11. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    She (View Comment):
    The UK has just endured a 1-2 punch from a couple of really severe winter storms, (90-100 mile-an-hour winds, and unusually large snowfalls) and the fallout has been dire. 

    Our daughter reports that their house (north of Dublin in County Meath) survived the winds without losing any roof tiles, unlike many others in their residential development.  As of last report, they weren’t yet sure about a little shed they have in back.   

    Everyone had been ordered to shelter in place while the winds blew.  

    • #11
  12. Orange Gerald Coolidge
    Orange Gerald
    @Jose

    She (View Comment):
    The UK has just endured a 1-2 punch from a couple of really severe winter storms, (90-100 mile-an-hour winds, and unusually large snowfalls) and the fallout has been dire. 

    When the wind blows hard, the windmills shut down.  When the wind doesn’t blow the windmills are shutdown.  But at least the sun has been shining, right?

    On a frigid January morning, the fruit of the U.K.’s overreliance on wind energy was reaped when its contribution to the national grid plummeted to a pitiful zero.  Solar output, meanwhile, was a paltry 1% of power generation.

    And…

    Adding insult to injury, the U.K.’s energy policies include a perverse mechanism: compensating wind turbine operators to switch off the machines during periods of high wind.

     

    • #12
  13. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    Orange Gerald (View Comment):

    She (View Comment):
    The UK has just endured a 1-2 punch from a couple of really severe winter storms, (90-100 mile-an-hour winds, and unusually large snowfalls) and the fallout has been dire.

    When the wind blows hard, the windmills shut down. When the wind doesn’t blow the windmills are shutdown. But at least the sun has been shining, right?

    On a frigid January morning, the fruit of the U.K.’s overreliance on wind energy was reaped when its contribution to the national grid plummeted to a pitiful zero. Solar output, meanwhile, was a paltry 1% of power generation.

    And…

    Adding insult to injury, the U.K.’s energy policies include a perverse mechanism: compensating wind turbine operators to switch off the machines during periods of high wind.

    Few people know much about electric grids and their vulnerabilities. Great Britain came dangerously close to a serious grid failure a couple of weeks ago, as reported here by the excellent Watt-Logic blog.

    Utility grids are remarkably robust given their complication and the interdependence of their parts,  but under stress they can fail catastrophically. The British grid is run by the National Energy System Operator, and NESO is less than transparent about the vulnerability of the nation’s electrical infrastructure to supply shortages exacerbated by unreliable wind and solar. I think Britain, and most of Europe, is in a race between network failure due to green energy policies, on the one hand, and the public’s rapidly growing rejection of those policies, on the other.

    Until the election in November, I’d have bet my money on failure. Now I’m more optimistic, for Britain and for all of us.

    • #13
  14. Orange Gerald Coolidge
    Orange Gerald
    @Jose

    I watched Sabine Hossenfelder’s videos regularly for a while.  It seemed she had bought into the CO2/climate change narrative.  Has she changed her mind?

    • #14
  15. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN

    Orange Gerald (View Comment):

    I watched Sabine Hossenfelder’s videos regularly for a while. It seemed she had bought into the CO2/climate change narrative. Has she changed her mind?

    She’s still a scientist. She thinks global warming is happening, but when she sees bad science she calls it out:

    She’s done this several times with physics papers as well.

    • #15
  16. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN

    Global warming and wildfires:

     

    • #16
  17. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):

    Global warming and wildfires:

     

    Excellent!  Speaking truth to power! 

    • #17
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.