Why Am I Not Surprised: Hamas Reneges

 

In a recent passionate post, Nanocelt the Contrarian protested the actions that President-Elect Trump had taken regarding the war in Gaza. Although I empathized with his pain, I urged him to wait and see if and how the deal was done.

Once again, it’s on hold.

Bibi Netanyahu has said that Hamas reneged on the deal. It’s been their modus operandi to demand last-minute changes in past deals. It’s not clear whether a recent action by the IDF was in response to the Hamas recalcitrance:

Israel launched more airstrikes in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday and Thursday morning, according to Palestinian media and residents of the enclave. WAFA, the official news agency of the Palestinian Authority, said several people had been killed in several Israeli bombings in Gaza City.

It will be interesting to see how the future unfolds. Not only is Hamas resisting the negotiated plan, but Netanyahu is experiencing serious resistance to voting for the plan by the right wing of his cabinet. The right wing of the public is also protesting, as the left wing calls for the release of the hostages.

I see no end in sight.

Maybe we’ll get to see hell break out.

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  1. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    It’s the first crisis of the new Trump administration (subject to whatever else may happen between now and January 20). I don’t think Hamas is going to like President Trump’s reaction. He is not subject to “global consensus” that Hamas supporters have been massaging. But he doesn’t hold the reins of power until Monday afternoon. My guess is that Hamas is doing this after an announced deal to demonstrate to their “river to the sea” supporters that there is never really a deal, only a lull. I think it is a misjudgment unless they really want to stand before Allah right now. But we will see. 

    • #1
  2. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Rodin (View Comment):

    It’s the first crisis of the new Trump administration (subject to whatever else may happen between now and January 20). I don’t think Hamas is going to like President Trump’s reaction. He is not subject to “global consensus” that Hamas supporters have been massaging. But he doesn’t hold the reins of power until Monday afternoon. My guess is that Hamas is doing this after an announced deal to demonstrate to their “river to the sea” supporters that there is never really a deal, only a lull. I think it is a misjudgment unless they really want to stand before Allah right now. But we will see.

    I agree with you. Hamas is making a statement. How long they stand by it, time will tell.

    • #2
  3. E. Kent Golding Moderator
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    Britain and Ireland negotiated out of the troubles.   However,  with Iran/Hamas/Yemen/Houthis/Hezbollah etc,  I don’t know how there can ever be a reasonable expectation that they keep up  their end of the deal.   Biden has been a Hamas supporter from the beginning.    Time to threaten US military response if the US hostages are not (EDITED) released,  and set the Israeli military free to do whatever it takes to eliminate the threats from Iran/Hamas/Yemen/Houthis/Hezbollah etc.

    • #3
  4. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    E. Kent Golding (View Comm

    deleted

    • #4
  5. E. Kent Golding Moderator
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    E. Kent Golding (View Comment):

    Britain and Ireland negotiated out of the troubles. However, with Iran/Hamas/Yemen/Houthis/Hezbollah etc, I don’t know how there can ever be a reasonable expectation that they keep up their end of the deal. Biden has been a Hamas supporter from the beginning. Time to threaten US military response if the US hostages are released, and set the Israeli military free to do whatever it takes to eliminate the threats from Iran/Hamas/Yemen/Houthis/Hezbollah etc.

    Kent, am I reading you correctly? Are you suggesting we attack if our hostages are released? If there is some kind of deal made (and I’ve been extremely skeptical for a while), they won’t honor it.

    No,   I neglected to include the word Not…. thought not, but didn’t type not.   I am going to go edit my comment, but not your quote.

    • #5
  6. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    E. Kent Golding (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    E. Kent Golding (View Comment):

    Britain and Ireland negotiated out of the troubles. However, with Iran/Hamas/Yemen/Houthis/Hezbollah etc, I don’t know how there can ever be a reasonable expectation that they keep up their end of the deal. Biden has been a Hamas supporter from the beginning. Time to threaten US military response if the US hostages are released, and set the Israeli military free to do whatever it takes to eliminate the threats from Iran/Hamas/Yemen/Houthis/Hezbollah etc.

    Kent, am I reading you correctly? Are you suggesting we attack if our hostages are released? If there is some kind of deal made (and I’ve been extremely skeptical for a while), they won’t honor it.

    No, I neglected to include the word Not…. thought not, but didn’t type not. I am going to go edit my comment, but not your quote.

    If you’re editing your comment, I’m deleting mine!

    • #6
  7. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Hamas plays this tiresome game over and over.

    Susan Quinn: Maybe we’ll get to see hell break out.

    Twenty four hours closer every day.

    Hamas leadership might want to reflect that the deal they get then won’t be anywhere near as palatable as the one they could have now.

    • #7
  8. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Percival (View Comment):
    Hamas leadership might want to reflect that the deal they get then won’t be anywhere near as palatable as the one they could have now.

    Well, see, there you go. Making rational statements. Sheesh.

    • #8
  9. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    For you, Susan, (VDH)

    https://mosaicmagazine.com/response/israel-zionism/2025/01/what-we-have-forgotten-about-war/

    • #9
  10. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    Rodin (View Comment):

    It’s the first crisis of the new Trump administration (subject to whatever else may happen between now and January 20). I don’t think Hamas is going to like President Trump’s reaction. He is not subject to “global consensus” that Hamas supporters have been massaging. But he doesn’t hold the reins of power until Monday afternoon. My guess is that Hamas is doing this after an announced deal to demonstrate to their “river to the sea” supporters that there is never really a deal, only a lull. I think it is a misjudgment unless they really want to stand before Allah right now. But we will see.

    Hamas, like the other “Palestinians” starting with Arafat, must uphold their standard M O…never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    • #10
  11. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    For you, Susan, (VDH)

    https://mosaicmagazine.com/response/israel-zionism/2025/01/what-we-have-forgotten-about-war/

    Thanks, Red. Excellent article that explains a lot. I especially liked this paragraph:

    I believe Baratz is right not because I wish him to be, but because I think he has a better understanding of human nature than do his opponents, in that he understands that the revolution in military affairs, new weaponry, artificial intelligence, cyberwar, and smart bombs and shells have changed not the rules of war, but merely the velocity and lethality of it.

    • #11
  12. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    For you, Susan, (VDH)

    https://mosaicmagazine.com/response/israel-zionism/2025/01/what-we-have-forgotten-about-war/

    Thanks, Red. Excellent article that explains a lot. I especially liked this paragraph:

    I believe Baratz is right not because I wish him to be, but because I think he has a better understanding of human nature than do his opponents, in that he understands that the revolution in military affairs, new weaponry, artificial intelligence, cyberwar, and smart bombs and shells have changed not the rules of war, but merely the velocity and lethality of it.

    I also credit the phrase “lose nobly, rather than win ugly”. Your opponent determines  whether you win “nicely” or “ugly”.  You determine whether you are committed to winning at all. 

    • #12
  13. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    I am not pessimistic by nature, but I don’t see how anything other than an all-out surrender by Hamas can lead to long-term peace.  How can you peacefully co-exist with a neighbor whose long-term goal is to exterminate you or drive you from your land?  I guess some Israelis want their hostages released at any cost and aren’t concerned about who will be taken hostage next time.

    • #13
  14. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Here’s a fellow giving a briefing from Netanyahu’s office (not much new)

    • #14
  15. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Percival (View Comment):

    Hamas plays this tiresome game over and over.

    Susan Quinn: Maybe we’ll get to see hell break out.

    Twenty four hours closer every day.

    Hamas leadership might want to reflect that the deal they get then won’t be anywhere near as palatable as the one they could have now.

    Passing up a good deal has been one constant since 1947.

    • #15
  16. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):
    Passing up a good deal has been one constant since 1947.

    Isn’t that the truth!

    • #16
  17. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not pessimistic by nature, but I don’t see how anything other than an all-out surrender by Hamas can lead to long-term peace. How can you peacefully co-exist with a neighbor whose long-term goal is to exterminate you or drive you from your land? I guess some Israelis want their hostages released at any cost and aren’t concerned about who will be taken hostage next time.

    Yet a jihadist can not surrender. They literally cannot surrender in this conflict, or even stop fighting it. They are in a belief trap – walking away from the belief is not only fatal, it means excommunication in this life and the next. And they very much don’t want to walk away from the belief in the first place. Surrender is unthinkable.

    It’s a mistake to evaluate them by any principles other than their own. 

    • #17
  18. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not pessimistic by nature, but I don’t see how anything other than an all-out surrender by Hamas can lead to long-term peace. How can you peacefully co-exist with a neighbor whose long-term goal is to exterminate you or drive you from your land? I guess some Israelis want their hostages released at any cost and aren’t concerned about who will be taken hostage next time.

    Yet a jihadist can not surrender. They literally cannot surrender in this conflict, or even stop fighting it. They are in a belief trap – walking away from the belief is not only fatal, it means excommunication in this life and the next. And they very much don’t want to walk away from the belief in the first place. Surrender is unthinkable.

    It’s a mistake to evaluate them by any principles other than their own.

    And according to their book, it’s the “moderate” or “peaceful” muslims who are the heretics.

    • #18
  19. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    I wonder if Israel went along with this latest proposal just to keep Biden busy and flattered in his last week in office so that he would not do something harmful to Israel on his way out of the White House, like Obama did.  Maybe they fully expected Hamas to break the deal before January 20th(?), at which point Trump would be in the driver’s seat.  It may sound “too” conspiratorial, but Israel has impressed me lately by scoring unimaginable brilliancies with their pager and cell phone scams, along with their science fiction-like defense of ballistic missile attacks.

    • #19
  20. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not pessimistic by nature, but I don’t see how anything other than an all-out surrender by Hamas can lead to long-term peace. How can you peacefully co-exist with a neighbor whose long-term goal is to exterminate you or drive you from your land? I guess some Israelis want their hostages released at any cost and aren’t concerned about who will be taken hostage next time.

    Taking hostages is like the Danegeld of yore . . .

    • #20
  21. Steve Fast Member
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Hamas can never give up most of the hostages because Israel’s fear of killing them accidentally (or Hamas killing them when Israel gets near) is the only things that constrains Israel’s fighting.

    I don’t see that Trump create a lot of hell against Hamas if they don’t release the hostages, as much as I would like him to. He can remove Biden’s restrictions on selling Israel more weapons, which would help its fight incrementally. Trump could destroy Iran’s nuclear program, which should be done regardless, but I doubt that Iran has a lot of influence over Hamas at this point. Maybe he could send US special forces to Gaza to hunt for the hostages, but I’m not sure they would do better than Israel. We could share intelligence more fully, which would be beneficial. He could close the US air base in Qatar, but can Qatar actually force Hamas to give up the hostages? These are incremental steps he can take, but I think that’s all.

    Holding the hostages is existential for Hamas. As strong as Israel’s cultural value on ransoming hostages is, I don’t see how they can do better than free a few at a time.

     

    • #21
  22. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Steve Fast (View Comment):

    Hamas can never give up most of the hostages because Israel’s fear of killing them accidentally (or Hamas killing them when Israel gets near) is the only things that constrains Israel’s fighting.

    I don’t see that Trump create a lot of hell against Hamas if they don’t release the hostages, as much as I would like him to. He can remove Biden’s restrictions on selling Israel more weapons, which would help its fight incrementally. Trump could destroy Iran’s nuclear program, which should be done regardless, but I doubt that Iran has a lot of influence over Hamas at this point. Maybe he could send US special forces to Gaza to hunt for the hostages, but I’m not sure they would do better than Israel. We could share intelligence more fully, which would be beneficial. He could close the US air base in Qatar, but can Qatar actually force Hamas to give up the hostages? These are incremental steps he can take, but I think that’s all.

    Holding the hostages is existential for Hamas. As strong as Israel’s cultural value on ransoming hostages is, I don’t see how they can do better than free a few at a time.

     

    I concur.  

    • #22
  23. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Steve Fast (View Comment):

    Hamas can never give up most of the hostages because Israel’s fear of killing them accidentally (or Hamas killing them when Israel gets near) is the only things that constrains Israel’s fighting.

    I don’t see that Trump create a lot of hell against Hamas if they don’t release the hostages, as much as I would like him to. He can remove Biden’s restrictions on selling Israel more weapons, which would help its fight incrementally. Trump could destroy Iran’s nuclear program, which should be done regardless, but I doubt that Iran has a lot of influence over Hamas at this point. Maybe he could send US special forces to Gaza to hunt for the hostages, but I’m not sure they would do better than Israel. We could share intelligence more fully, which would be beneficial. He could close the US air base in Qatar, but can Qatar actually force Hamas to give up the hostages? These are incremental steps he can take, but I think that’s all.

    Holding the hostages is existential for Hamas. As strong as Israel’s cultural value on ransoming hostages is, I don’t see how they can do better than free a few at a time.

     

    We need our base in Qatar. Moving there helped us cut back in Saudi. There isn’t a better choice. Just rearm Israel. 

    • #23
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