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Will They Rebuild Los Angeles?
A westward view of the Hurst Fire on January 7. Wikimedia Commons
I’ve watched a lot this week of the tragic events resulting from the wildfires in the Los Angeles area.
This has increased my awareness of some of the details related to the destruction. It appears there has been total mismanagement of the fire prevention capability by federal, state, and local governing authorities. The big state-related issue is the lack of water positioned to fight the fires, and there are also questions about equipment and the actual competency of officials, including those elected at state and local levels.
I have gained an impression over the recent years that environmental and other requirements make garnering permits to build very complicated. Now I understand that insurance companies are refusing to insure homes for fire hazards.
With all these factors operating against the process, why would people actually rebuild homes in these areas, especially in view of the fact that they have a very high risk of fire and no competent government service to respond to that risk? The high taxation for those who reside in California is another factor working against rebuilding.
Published in General
Sadly true. You can’t fix stupid.
People don’t get that government-mandated price controls often result in shortages of products and services.
Here is a screenshot. I can’t figure out how to capture the link.
The economics tells us that they have so much money invested in the area, that rebuilding will pay off better than taking the loss.
Some bits to note:
While this is clear thinking, imagine how difficult it would be to get approval for a salt water pump, pipe, and reservoir system in California. Imagine the environmental impact reports that would be required. It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
The rebuild, if it happens, will undoubtedly be a very interesting multi-year spectacle for interested observers.
So THAT’S why BLM was hoovering up all that money!
Maybe a few will, but I expect most will double-down, etc.
A challenge to rebuilding it “better” is that “better” is likely to be much more expensive. Much more expensive is usually not a problem for the uber-rich, but for any remaining near-normies is a problem.
Toward the end of the time I lived in coastal Orange County (1968 – 2000), Laguna Beach mandated that any houses rebuilt after a fire, or houses that without a fire were modified in a way that required a building permit, had to be brought up to new fire-resistance standards. Unquestionably a “better” more fire-resistant house. But also those updates added (in the late 1990s) well over $100,000, and often up to $300,000 in extra cost to a construction project on a typical house.
As I understand it, the problem with the fire hydrants in Pacific Palisades wasn’t with the hydrants or their plumbing, but with the policy decisions of county and/or state officials not to fill a reservoir that would have fed the hydrants.
Who is the “They” in will they rebuild LA?
If it is true that on Jan 1st 2025, big insurers cancelled the fire insurance agreements inside home insurance policies, many people will not have the wherewithal to rebuild.
Others will have to fight tooth and nail to have their fire insurance policy agreements honored.
The celebrity crowd often has the deep pockets to re-build. But with Studio City gone, and much more of the day-to-day screen time offerings coming about due to Netflix, Amazon Prime, and other new content providers, it is hard to figure out what the movie industry will look like.
I have no doubt that now that Mr and Mrs Super Stars need massive infusions of monies, many in that crowd will be available for interviews by the TV magazine shows’ Talking Heads. That way, they can proclaim the reality of how these fires will continue to happen until people understand that the Climate Crisis situation means we must stop eating beef and dairy, chickens and eggs. Plus no more fossil fuel-using cars. Once they succeed in this campaign, Soros will cut them their checks.
Having watched numerous podcasts put up by people in the Paradise Calif region after that devastating fire of Nov 2018, one reality that even supercedes the monetary implications of re-building is how people descend into an overwhelming state of shock. One woman confessed that for the entire year following the epic event, she found herself unable to get out of bed on most days. On days when she managed that, even taking a brush to her hair or teeth was too much to do. (This was a woman with a relatively affluent lifestyle, so I can only imagine how poorer people fared.) remember in these catastrophic fires, even if your home did survive, you have to wonder if neighbors around you survived. Did friends make it through.
The fatality counts for these fires are always incredibly low. For one thing, in the world of officialdom, unless there is an actual body available, then that individual didn’t die. (Of course if they had family members who pulled through, or close friends who keep pushing to find out if they did or didn’t make it, those efforts might in seven years bring about a death certificate.)
So victims of these fires not only lose their homes, and often their jobs but never know what happened to people they knew and loved.
In the Paradise Calif fire of Nov 20128, officialdom discouraged looking thru ruble for bodies as the local dental office had burned to the ground. Their attitude was “If we cannot identify the body, we don’t count it as a fatality anyway.”
Also convenient to those who like to put such matters behind them is how fires incinerate bodies so they are mere piles of ash. The half dozen tow truck drivers hired after the Paradise blaze who went on the record of a local guy’s podcast explained the experiences they had while pulling out the frames of hundreds of cars found burnt up and on the road. Their experiences were extremely depressing. Their reports focused on how in vehicle after vehicle, there were mounds of ash in the driver’s seat and often in the passenger seats or on floorboards. After a few months of exposure, then YouTube pulled all that content.
Can’t say I don’t agree with you.
No one is safe from what is happening, Scarecrow.
There is not a spot on the map of the USA where a tremendous drought cannot be orchestrated. Or a massive tornado. Or a fire. (You did notice, I hope, the array of “wild fires” that all started in Canada in multiple places which had experienced decent winter rain falls. Canada, not California.)
I am close friends with a man who has investigated over 60 “wild fire” sites here in Calif, the Pacific Northwest and Lahaina. He has put together photographic evidence of how houses are dust, but trees a mere 12 to 15 feet from the type of intense heat needed to melt even the cast iron wood burning stove are still standing. Not only does the public clamor to attend his presentations, but he has retired FD people showing up as well to offer the information they have collected.
Cash will do the talking.
The replacement ratio will probably be 4 units for every pre-disaster home.
They are often red-pilled for about 2 elections.
Maybe a better comparison is the Chicago fire of 1871.
Earthquakes will usually kill more people. They’re sudden, and you spend more time on the aftermath. And of course, since predicting an earthquake is harder, you’re not warning people to evacuate beforehand.
Typically, modern disasters in first world countries result in much fewer casualties than an equivalent event in poorer countries, or anywhere 100+ years ago.
Also casualties from the San Francisco earthquake was estimated at 3,000 and the Chicago fire at 300.
So far, I’ve heard that there have been 10 casualties from this event in Los Angeles. It will probably go higher, but probably not that much higher.
I’m not going to feel too sorry for the rich people that lost their property in this. In addition to voting for the people who are running this mess, and who probably won’t let them rebuild, they probably contributed campaign funds to them. They have more influence and should bear some of the moral responsibility for that influence.
My sympathy is for the middle economic class without insurance through no fault of their own. Even then, though, if they were listening they would have left California by now. Enough of their neighbors have.
Not much different. The trade unions that typically work on a movie set have priced themselves out of the market.
The Hollywood set lives in Hollywood out of habit. And you still go to Hollywood to pitch a movie and get funding. But the actual labor of making the movie is done outside of California, and maybe out of the country.
No, then it’ll be old news, let it go. Whats wrong with you? Maybe in 10 years, after everyone in office now, has retired – and the scapegoats have been thoroughly discredited will there be a commission which after years of testimony, study and reflection, will issue recommendations, which will be promptly shelved.
No, I dont think LA will rebuild – at least not for years under current regulatory conditions. They’ll need major reforms just to get things ‘normal-ish’ again…
This is the death of LA, the uber rich who were burned out don’t have to rebuild – they can relocate. They’ll bulldoze the lot and sell it, and disperse out into the world…Without those uber rich driving the LA retail economy. In reality, these top flight actors that lost their homes can live anywhere in the world, Spain, Greece, Italy, Mexico, Argentina, Chile… The world has lots of near tropical coastlines for these people to enjoy.
As some note, there are trade-offs. But I would expect that if you’re rebuilding from scratch, the incremental cost of improved fire protection would be less than retrofitting existing homes to the same level. Also cheaper to rebuild with more fire hydrants than to add them later – along with increased pipeline capacity to supply them, etc.
Latest I’ve heard is that when they’re ready to head back, they have to be inspected AGAIN, and if they don’t pass they’ll have to STAY until they do.
Insane.
The way I usually describe that kind of thing, is that people think that once someone like a Trump gets things going smoothly, they think they can just swap in a Newsom or Obama or whatever to feel better about themselves and get more free stuff, assuming that everything else will just continue on without change.
Rich people can buy waivers.
It’s not true.
So people just stayed in their cars and burned? They didn’t get out? And that seems realistic to you?
A fire hot enough to reduce a human body to “ash” left the seat intact for these piles of ashes to be found on?
Alternative hypothesis – the “mounds of ash” were the remnants of the upholstery of the seats found among the wire frames left over from where the seats were.
Its ok, It’ll all work out for the democrats. They’ve insured they’ll get re-elected with the invasion of illegals willing to vote for them.
The real problem for the democrats will be fundraising. Fraud can only get you so far – what? Nearly 1/2 of the democrats big donors lost their homes in this fire? Mid terms, Governor’s election could all be sucking a lot of wind in the fundraisers for the next decade.
Here’s the link: https://x.com/LarsLarsonShow/status/1877411906224533676
I just read the article that Lars Larson links to. I mentions that Oregon firefighters are going to California to help. Maybe something is wrong with my eyes tonight. I read the article three times and cannot see where there is any mention of the firefighters being delayed by inspectors of any sort in California.
The linked article was written Jan 8. The X posting was written Jan 9. The problem did not occur until after the linked article was posted.
Well, it’s fair to ask where this information is coming from. I can believe that California has a Kafkaesque bureaucracy that would require those inspections, and may be even require them to divert to Sacramento for them, but it could also just be a rumor that’s accepted as fact, precisely because it seems plausible.