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To Stay Or Not To Stay [Upated]
President Trump’s lawyers have petitioned the US Supreme Court for a stay of sentencing before New York judge Juan Merchan scheduled for Friday, January 10, 2025. The various New York appeals courts have declined. Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme. President Trump and many legal scholars believe he has an excellent chance of overturning the conviction on appeal in some venue and at some point, so a stay would be appropriate.
What will the Court do? My guess is that they will issue the stay. There will be pressure not to do so, of course. But, on balance, I think they will if they see having the seated American president being “convicted” by a suspect process and waving aside the Court’s own immunity ruling as being more destabilizing to regular order than not. Note I am not making a legal argument, I am making a stability argument. That is because the current balance on the Court favors stability over the best legal argument.
Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett are definitely “slow as you go” votes. Justice Kavanaugh seems mostly to hang with them as well. Recall Chief Justice Roberts routinely veers away from outcomes that have political moment unless he is in the dissenting minority. For example, Roberts kept Obamacare in place by conjuring a “tax” that none of the parties argued.
If the Court does not grant a stay, no doubt it will be argued that there was some technical failing in the legal argument put forward by the president’s lawyers. But the real reason would be a judgment by the Court that it is better served by not intervening at this point. I find it difficult to believe that would be true, but I am not making that call.
If the Court does not issue a stay, it will give continued strength to lawfare. And that is far worse than the personal interests and treatment of the president.
[Update: SCOTUS denies stay request 5-4 with CJ Roberts and Justice Barrett joining the three progressive justices.]
Published in General
Your stamina in fighting the good fight for private citizen Jack Smith is impressive. You do know that case was dismissed for prosecutorial misconduct, right?
False.
Judge Cannon dismissed the case on the grounds that Smith’s appointment violated the Constitution. Misconduct had nothing to do with it.
I’m not surprised they denied the stay because SCOTUS doesn’t like emergency appeals, with good reason. They can make a much better decision if they have two levels of arguments on the record when they hear the case. Since there was no real harm to either party, they decided not to decide.
The presidential immunity case is an instance where SCOTUS made a good decision because they had the opportunity to review the record from the DC district court and the responses of both parties and judges in the DC Appeals Court.
I wish they had granted the stay, but I really think Trump will get the conviction overturned based on so many fatal defects in the case. It will just take months or years.
You mean, representing himself as a lawful government official when he’s not, isn’t misconduct?
If he’s not really in that position lawfully, then EVERYTHING HE DID was misconduct.
You are arguing with a lawyer. Rodin is correct. You repeat the media lies. There was no classified in the bathroom. They had to crack a safe to get to his documents in his office. You are grossly mischaracterizing the once and future Florida White House. The hunters are becoming the hunted.
The misconduct will continue. Smith is fighting to get his lies into the public sphere. His “report” will go to certain committee heads. We know Jeffrees (Dim) will leak it. At that point, Bondi will be AG and Repubs will control both houses. They can haul the leakers into hearings. Leakers are easy to spot when few have access. The AG can counter. We will soon know what “classified” documents the goons took from MaL and more mockery will follow. We were never told the chain of custody of those boxes and Trump was not allowed to see what they took despite still having his security clearance. He was never able to verify if any were his personal copies. Isn’t it funny that he wasn’t even charged under the PRA . The goons manufactured propaganda and leaked it to the media. Smith doesn’t want it to be over. He will regret it.
When forced to release the inventory, the “storing classified in the bathroom” lie was exposed.
Our money was donated freely and we got a good return, White House, Senate, House, and no punishment for Trump. I donated freely again yesterday. How much money did the Democrats spend to take out Trump, keep the Senate, and win back the House? What did they get for it?
You mean all those sections he bought despite Democrat opposition, all those sections to add to the 500 miles he built, all those sections Democrats left to decay piled up on the ground, all those sections Biden is trying to sell off for pennies on the dollar so Trump can’t use them? Where is your post attacking Biden for that?
The “orange imbecile” ran circles around his opponents and he isn’t done, yet.
I love how often he is the Orange Imbecile and the Orange Evil Genius in the same hit piece, sometimes even in the same paragraph. If they took just the hit pieces enumerating all of the reasons why he could never be elected to office and set fire to them…oh, wait. They did. Sorry Los Angeles…too soon? And now Los Angeles is the fault of Orange Man Bad because he publicly warned Pelosi Boy of the danger and the urgent need to address years and years ago. If only there were real elections in California, the stench of Pelosi Boy et. al. would blow away like hot embers in a Santa Ana wind.
Meanwhile, the powers that be fund raise at French Laundry, their ice water glasses dripping with condensation, contemplating their evening plans at some new Epstein Island. The fire is orange, so that must be Orange Man Bad’s doing as well. He causes all of the evil in the world, you know.
The term “prosecutorial misconduct” has a familiar, uncontroversial meaning. Your inventive but desperate attempt to redefine the phrase to favor Trump changes nothing. Smith was appointed special counsel in 2022; Trump didn’t attempt to have him dismissed on Appointment Clause grounds until 2024.
Arguing with a lawyer? How dare I! Outrageous! There oughta be a law.
The indictment specifically states that classified documents were stored in a bathroom.
The idea that the whole of MaL was a secure location is demented. I have worked in both commercial (satellite assembly) and DOD establishments in which despite having a TS security clearance I had to have an escort any time I left my desk—lunch, bathroom, to and from my office after entering and while leaving the building, etc. Those were secure locations, and shockingly they didn’t permit tens of thousands of (possibly drunk) club members and wedding guests to roam the halls.
Yes, I’m sure all federal search warrants include a provision that permits the searchee to approve the list of items to be seized. Totally normal.
Isn’t it time you voiced some of the other claims Trumpists make about the documents case, for example that there’s supposed to be a “negotiation” between the departing president and the archivist as to what documents are to be considered presidential records? I’ve seen that one here on Ricochet. It’s wrong, of course, as the Presidential Records Act specifically states:
That’s it. No negotiation, no shipping huge numbers of classified documents off to an insecure Florida hidey-hole and waving them in front of random people not authorized to see them, no attempting to conceal them from federal agents and ordering that the video of this be deleted, no ordering your lawyers to lie and state that all the documents had been turned over. Trump was guilty as hell, and we all know it.
Let’s be frank: I don’t have personal knowledge of any of these things, only the sources of information I read and credit. Nothing I have heard from you suggests that you have personal knowledge either. So let’s accept our limitations and acknowledge our biases. You appear to think that constitutional order is offended by the power that people have given to President Trump, and I feel that, notwithstanding his personal qualities, constitutional order needs to be restored and ending civil and criminal lawfare instituted against him since 2020 is part of that restoration. These appear to be core beliefs of each of us and are irresolvable. You have reams of data to support your position and I have reams of data to support mine — but we are not the personal developers, collectors and organizers of that data. We only have the following undisputed facts in common: President Trump will take office on January 20, 2025; the classified documents case has been dismissed and government appeals withdrawn; the DC case has been dismissed; the Georgia case has been removed from Fanni Willis and a new prosecutor has yet to determine whether the case can be pursued consistent with the ethical obligations of prosecutors; the NY hush money case is over with a conviction with “unconditional discharge” (no custody, no parole or restrictions) and is under appeal; the NY bank loan fraud case is under appeal. The rest of it is only fodder for disagreement.
You only post one bullet from the long list. You don’t mention that the president also has “personal papers” and decides what is personal. The archivist can negotiate. Presidents can continue that sorting after he leaves office. The President can put his presidential papers in his library. The archivist functions are mostly courtesy and the president can be the final authority for up to ten years over which records can be released to the public. All presidents take papers with them. Funny how after this popped up someone pointed out Obama still had his. You didn’t also mention that the GSA stored his boxes then demanded he take delivery. You also don’t distinguish between the public (for members) areas of MAL and Trump’s private residence area secured by the secret service. Nowhere in this sordid saga were we ever told who packed the boxes, what was the chain of custody, why the raid was needed, why they used an unconstitutional general warrant, why the DOJ/FBI leaked propaganda and lies to the media, why the inventory didn’t list the subject of the “classified” documents taken (he declassified Crossfire Hurricane and sent a copy back to DOJ so FBI took his personal copy, if that was taken), and why they refused to let Trump see what they took.
I have documented these attacks on Trump in my “Trump Coup” album. Rather than posting tons of pictures, here are screenshots of the thumbnails. Expand them, if you wish. The effort isn’t worth my time. The PRA can’t impose any criminal punishment on Trump anyway.
