To Stay Or Not To Stay [Upated]

 

President Trump’s lawyers have petitioned the US Supreme Court for a stay of sentencing before New York judge Juan Merchan scheduled for Friday, January 10, 2025. The various New York appeals courts have declined. Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme. President Trump and many legal scholars believe he has an excellent chance of overturning the conviction on appeal in some venue and at some point, so a stay would be appropriate.

What will the Court do? My guess is that they will issue the stay. There will be pressure not to do so, of course. But, on balance, I think they will if they see having the seated American president being “convicted” by a suspect process and waving aside the Court’s own immunity ruling as being more destabilizing to regular order than not.  Note I am not making a legal argument, I am making a stability argument. That is because the current balance on the Court favors stability over the best legal argument.

Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett are definitely “slow as you go” votes. Justice Kavanaugh seems mostly to hang with them as well. Recall Chief Justice Roberts routinely veers away from outcomes that have political moment unless he is in the dissenting minority. For example, Roberts kept Obamacare in place by conjuring a “tax” that none of the parties argued.

If the Court does not grant a stay, no doubt it will be argued that there was some technical failing in the legal argument put forward by the president’s lawyers. But the real reason would be a judgment by the Court that it is better served by not intervening at this point. I find it difficult to believe that would be true, but I am not making that call.

If the Court does not issue a stay, it will give continued strength to lawfare. And that is far worse than the personal interests and treatment of the president.

[Update: SCOTUS denies stay request 5-4 with CJ Roberts and Justice Barrett joining the three progressive justices.]

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  1. JoelB Member
    JoelB
    @JoelB

    It looks as if we can expect the SCOTUS to do the right thing for the wrong reason if I understand you correctly.

    • #1
  2. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    1 think Democrats have squeezed all the juice out of the lawfare orange. Merchan might not have gotten the message, but that won’t stop him. It just won’t help Democrats one bit. Our tactics have changed from anger to dosing out mockery, the best garlic for these monsters. Wiki had to lock down the Gulf of Mexico page because people kept changing it to Gulf of America. I’m thinking of going to the Trump site and seeing if I can buy a garbage truck. Just because. Might get a bobblehead, too. I have no MAGA items. Those two things seem like an investment. (I have my great grandfather’s Roosevelt campaign pin.)

    • #2
  3. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Rodin: If the Court does not issue a stay they will give continued strength to lawfare. And that is far worse than the personal interests and treatment of the President. 

    I agree. This is an important moment for the Court to step in. Otherwise, from my perspective, they are sanctioning lawfare.

    • #3
  4. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    JoelB (View Comment):

    It looks as if we can expect the SCOTUS to do the right thing for the wrong reason if I understand you correctly.

    Yes. I don’t know what’s going on with the New York appellate courts. Unless the process limited it to a few partisan justices (possible) I would have expected them to issue a stay. That they didn’t is suggestive that Trump’s legal theory on the narrow issues affecting sentencing before appeal may not be rock solid (even though I think he has plentiful grounds for appealing the conviction).  Courts generally seem to be unmoved by “the process is the punishment” arguments. So a run of the mill defendant might not get relief from the US Supreme Court in similar facts and circumstances of a state trial. But this is a once and future president with a certified Electoral College and popular vote win. 

    • #4
  5. E. Kent Golding Moderator
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    • #5
  6. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    This issue will be perceived as political no matter what decision is rendered. As such, the good Chief Justice will wet his finger and stick it in the wind … and feel the cold wind blow off of the Atlantic and heed the wishes of the Bush-wing of the GOP to do nothing. No stay will be granted. After all, it’s Trump who would be harmed, not the Presidency (they tell themselves).

    • #6
  7. Bunsen Coolidge
    Bunsen
    @Bunsen

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    1 think Democrats have squeezed all the juice out of the lawfare orange. Merchan might not have gotten the message, but that won’t stop him. It just won’t help Democrats one bit. Our tactics have changed from anger to dosing out mockery, the best garlic for these monsters. Wiki had to lock down the Gulf of Mexico page because people kept changing it to Gulf of America. I’m thinking of going to the Trump site and seeing if I can buy a garbage truck. Just because. Might get a bobblehead, too. I have no MAGA items. Those two things seem like an investment. (I have my great grandfather’s Roosevelt campaign pin.)

    Will your garbage route be on a subscription basis?  And where will you dump the load?  I suggest in Schiff’s front yard.

    • #7
  8. Ray Gunner Coolidge
    Ray Gunner
    @RayGunner

    Rodin: Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme.

    This I don’t get.  Why ache for the “convicted felon” meme when everyone with eyes can see the conviction is the result of politicized lawfare? 

    • #8
  9. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Ray Gunner (View Comment):

    Rodin: Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme.

    This I don’t get. Why ache for the “convicted felon” meme when everyone with eyes can see the conviction is the result of politicized lawfare?

    They need to convince themselves, and tell it to each other. Otherwise it kind of peters out.

    • #9
  10. Ray Gunner Coolidge
    Ray Gunner
    @RayGunner

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Ray Gunner (View Comment):

    Rodin: Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme.

    This I don’t get. Why ache for the “convicted felon” meme when everyone with eyes can see the conviction is the result of politicized lawfare?

    They need to convince themselves, and tell it to each other. Otherwise it kind of peters out.

    I can see that.  But what does referring to DJT a “convicted felon” get you when it is based on a bunch of b.s. bookkeeping charges from a corrupt court?   A sense of moral superiority?  Like referring to Trump voters as “deplorables”?  Are they that shallow? 

    • #10
  11. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Ray Gunner (View Comment):

    Rodin: Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme.

    This I don’t get. Why ache for the “convicted felon” meme when everyone with eyes can see the conviction is the result of politicized lawfare?

    Dems gotta dem. It’s all they got.

    • #11
  12. Fritz Coolidge
    Fritz
    @Fritz

    Ray Gunner (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Ray Gunner (View Comment):

    Rodin: Democrats are eager for Merchan to impose a sentence of any kind, even unconditional release, to preserve their “convicted felon” meme.

    This I don’t get. Why ache for the “convicted felon” meme when everyone with eyes can see the conviction is the result of politicized lawfare?

    They need to convince themselves, and tell it to each other. Otherwise it kind of peters out.

    I can see that. But what does referring to DJT a “convicted felon” get you when it is based on a bunch of b.s. bookkeeping charges from a corrupt court? A sense of moral superiority? Like referring to Trump voters as “deplorables”? Are they that shallow?

    They are counting on there still being a large cohort of mostly unengaged voters, those who do not keep up with anything but the MSM news, and who will only see clips and hear sound bites smearing  PDJT a convicted felon, thus stoking their ire against Trump, the MAGA and the GOP brands.

    • #12
  13. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    SCOTUS denies the stay. So I guess the Republicans may need to gin up their own Court packing scheme. (Sigh). Roberts and Barrett join the reliable 3 progressive justices in a 5-4 vote. 

    • #13
  14. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Professor Jonathan Turley has a good analysis of the denial and next steps

    • #14
  15. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    President Trump’s statement posted to Truth Social

    • #15
  16. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    The Democrats are determined to make President Trump a singular figure in American history. They appear to be succeeding, but I think they are going to get a hard lesson on the law of unintended consequences.  

    • #16
  17. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Rodin (View Comment):

    The Democrats are determined to make President Trump a singular figure in American history. They appear to be succeeding, but I think they are going to get a hard lesson on the law of unintended consequences.

    The next most obvious step is getting the whole thing thrown out on appeal.  Any news on that?

    • #17
  18. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Ray Gunner (View Comment):
    I can see that.  But what does referring to DJT a “convicted felon” get you when it is based on a bunch of b.s. bookkeeping charges from a corrupt court?   A sense of moral superiority?  Like referring to Trump voters as “deplorables”?  Are they that shallow? 

    It gives me an opportunity to tell them that the real scandal is that Hillary and Bill Clinton are still at large and have never spent so much as a day behind bars.  

    • #18
  19. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    The Democrats are determined to make President Trump a singular figure in American history. They appear to be succeeding, but I think they are going to get a hard lesson on the law of unintended consequences.

    The next most obvious step is getting the whole thing thrown out on appeal. Any news on that?

    It will happen, but it will likely be months and maybe years. 

    • #19
  20. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Rodin (View Comment):

    SCOTUS denies the stay. So I guess the Republicans may need to gin up their own Court packing scheme. (Sigh). Roberts and Barrett join the reliable 3 progressive justices in a 5-4 vote.

    Ed Meese wrote on amicus for Trump’s side. 

    • #20
  21. Yarob Coolidge
    Yarob
    @Yarob

    Trump has been sentenced.

    The New York judge who presided over Donald Trump’s hush money case on Friday sentenced the president-elect to an “unconditional discharge,” meaning he is now a convicted felon in the eyes of New York state law but will face no further penalties.

    Let’s hope he doesn’t still own firearms, because convicted felons are prohibited by both federal and Florida law from doing so.

    • #21
  22. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Yarob (View Comment):

    Trump has been sentenced.

    The New York judge who presided over Donald Trump’s hush money case on Friday sentenced the president-elect to an “unconditional discharge,” meaning he is now a convicted felon in the eyes of New York state law but will face no further penalties.

    Let’s hope he doesn’t still own firearms, because convicted felons are prohibited by both federal and Florida law from doing so.

    Do we care about firearms laws anymore?

    • #22
  23. Fritz Coolidge
    Fritz
    @Fritz

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Yarob (View Comment):

    Trump has been sentenced.

    The New York judge who presided over Donald Trump’s hush money case on Friday sentenced the president-elect to an “unconditional discharge,” meaning he is now a convicted felon in the eyes of New York state law but will face no further penalties.

    Let’s hope he doesn’t still own firearms, because convicted felons are prohibited by both federal and Florida law from doing so.

    Do we care about firearms laws anymore?

    Only when they can be used against conservatives. Maybe they’ll red flag Trump at Mar a Lago? FL has some sort of red flag law, I believe.

    • #23
  24. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Trump beat all the political lawsuits! He is getting tons of $$$ and will fund his inauguration. So much for their attempts to break him financially. Historical times, folks.   Invincibility is a powerful tool he will use for a maximum effect right out of the gate. I still want to know if the FBI has returned his documents to Mar a Lago. Should we send a thank you to all the corrupt Democrats who engaged in lawfare.

    I heard somewhere that some of the companies that bought border wall sections are patriotic and will sell them right back to the government so they can be used for the wall. I hope that is true. If so, he will see to it sections start to go up quickly. His EOs are ready to drop on day 1. 

     

    • #24
  25. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Trump beat all the political lawsuits! He is getting tons of $$$ and will fund his inauguration. So much for their attempts to break him financially. Historical times, folks. Invincibility is a powerful tool he will use for a maximum effect right out of the gate. I still want to know if the FBI has returned his documents to Mar a Lago. Should we send a thank you to all the corrupt Democrats who engaged in lawfare.

    I heard somewhere that some of the companies that bought border wall sections are patriotic and will sell them right back to the government so they can be used for the wall. I hope that is true. If so, he will see to it sections start to go up quickly. His EOs are ready to drop on day 1.

    From what I’ve heard, at least some of the wall-section buyers – including the Lt Gov of Texas – have said they would DONATE the wall-sections back.

    After all, they didn’t really pay much for them.

    • #25
  26. E. Kent Golding Moderator
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    https://babylonbee.com/news/cruel-trump-sentenced-to-drink-only-diet-pepsi

    • #26
  27. Yarob Coolidge
    Yarob
    @Yarob

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Trump beat all the political lawsuits! He is getting tons of $$$ and will fund his inauguration. So much for their attempts to break him financially. Historical times, folks. Invincibility is a powerful tool he will use for a maximum effect right out of the gate. I still want to know if the FBI has returned his documents to Mar a Lago. Should we send a thank you to all the corrupt Democrats who engaged in lawfare.

    I heard somewhere that some of the companies that bought border wall sections are patriotic and will sell them right back to the government so they can be used for the wall. I hope that is true. If so, he will see to it sections start to go up quickly. His EOs are ready to drop on day 1.

     

    Break him financially? You know he used other people’s money to pay his lawyers, don’t you?

    His documents, or the ones he stole from the government, stored in insecure locations, and conspired with others to conceal and withhold from their rightful owner?

    Sections of the border wall he promised to build but didn’t deliver? Those sections?

    The EOs that Republicans have for years roundly criticized as executive overreach and often unconstitutional? Those EOs? 

    • #27
  28. Rodin Moderator
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Yarob (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Trump beat all the political lawsuits! He is getting tons of $$$ and will fund his inauguration. So much for their attempts to break him financially. Historical times, folks. Invincibility is a powerful tool he will use for a maximum effect right out of the gate. I still want to know if the FBI has returned his documents to Mar a Lago. Should we send a thank you to all the corrupt Democrats who engaged in lawfare.

    I heard somewhere that some of the companies that bought border wall sections are patriotic and will sell them right back to the government so they can be used for the wall. I hope that is true. If so, he will see to it sections start to go up quickly. His EOs are ready to drop on day 1.

     

    Break him financially? You know he used other people’s money to pay his lawyers, don’t you?

    His documents, or the ones he stole from the government, stored in insecure locations, and conspired with others to conceal and withhold from their rightful owner?

    Sections of the border wall he promised to build but didn’t deliver? Those sections?

    The EOs that Republicans have for years roundly criticized as executive overreach and often unconstitutional? 

    Yes, it is a real shame that the Liz Cheney conservatives have not prevailed. 

    • #28
  29. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Yarob (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Trump beat all the political lawsuits! He is getting tons of $$$ and will fund his inauguration. So much for their attempts to break him financially. Historical times, folks. Invincibility is a powerful tool he will use for a maximum effect right out of the gate. I still want to know if the FBI has returned his documents to Mar a Lago. Should we send a thank you to all the corrupt Democrats who engaged in lawfare.

    I heard somewhere that some of the companies that bought border wall sections are patriotic and will sell them right back to the government so they can be used for the wall. I hope that is true. If so, he will see to it sections start to go up quickly. His EOs are ready to drop on day 1.

     

    Break him financially? You know he used other people’s money to pay his lawyers, don’t you?

    His documents, or the ones he stole from the government, stored in insecure locations, and conspired with others to conceal and withhold from their rightful owner?

    Sections of the border wall he promised to build but didn’t deliver? Those sections?

    The EOs that Republicans have for years roundly criticized as executive overreach and often unconstitutional?

    Yes, it is a real shame that the Liz Cheney conservatives have not prevailed.

    And people somehow keep forgetting that, since Trump had been President, his residence at Mar-A-Lago WAS a secure location.  Including the bathrooms, and Melania’s closet and underwear drawers.

    • #29
  30. Yarob Coolidge
    Yarob
    @Yarob

    kedavis (View Comment):
    And people somehow keep forgetting that, since Trump had been President, his residence at Mar-A-Lago WAS a secure location.  Including the bathrooms, and Melania’s closet and underwear drawers.

    A fantasy

    Prosecutors noted that “tens of thousands of members and guests” visited the “active social club” of Mar-a-Lago between the end of Trump’s presidency in January 2021 through the August 2022 search. They argued that “nonetheless” Trump stored documents “in a ballroom, a bathroom and shower, and office space, his bedroom, and a storage room.”

    • #30
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