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A Resolution to the Ukraine Problem
Have you ever seen a freight train fly? That is the image that keeps coming into my head when I consider the situation Russia is in. Russia is weighed down by alcoholism, a lack of development, out-of-date infrastructure, an economy on the brink and a rapidly aging population. That was before the war. Today, with the exodus of the young professionals who had the sense to escape early on and the deaths of so many who did not, everything is worse. In exchange for a slice of Ukrainian territory, they have sacrificed even more of their future.
As a sort of twisted insight into this reality, a recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted the economic benefits poor regions have seen — due to cash payments for those who have been killed in battle. A 35-year-old man can be expected to earn more for his family, dead on the battlefield, than he would have over 25 years of working, assuming he had a full-time job. In reading the article, I detected a tone of near-celebration among the women left behind. They are buying apartments and cars — and commemorative plaques to the men who paid for it all with their lives. There’s a problem with this zoomed-in economic perspective. On the battlefield that 35-year-old man added nothing to the Russian economy. Because of those losses, the net present value of the Russian state is plummeting.
They are like a train rushing along a track that heads straight into a mountain. They are getting heavier and heavier as they go. And they are hoping, somehow, to gain enough speed to take off.
It isn’t going to happen.
None of this means Russia can’t “win the war.” Ukraine is also suffering. Ukraine has nowhere near the manpower and the Ukrainians, after the history of the early 1990s promises, can’t trust any security guarantee offered by the United States or Europe. Of course, given the track record of Russia in Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya and elsewhere, the Ukrainians also have zero trust in any agreements signed by the Russian State. As Darth Putin puts it so succinctly: the Warsaw Pact is “the only modern mutual defense alliance in history to repeatedly attack itself.”
Given all the above, what kind of off-ramp can there possibly be? Do these states keep throwing lives at each other until their respective trains crash headlong into the mountain? Does Russia expand its campaign of sabotage against the West, hoping to draw NATO troops in so they have the honor of at least losing to what they consider a peer? Do they start a nuclear conflict, unwilling to face the prospect that everything has truly and irredeemably gone sideways? Do they invite the Chinese into their war, capturing Ukraine but surrendering their own independence in the process?
None of these possibilities seem the least bit hopeful. As much as Trump has talked about phone calls bringing an end to the war, it seems tremendously unlikely. Russia won’t surrender what they’ve captured, Ukraine won’t trust Russia, and NATO soldiers won’t stand at the front. What hope can there possibly be for a ceasefire, much less a lasting peace?
In reality, hope abounds so long as you know where to look for it.
Ukraine won’t agree to a ceasefire because they can’t trust Russia. But what if they don’t need to trust Russia? What if a ceasefire, even one that leaves Russian soldiers on Ukrainian territory and cedes conquered territory in Kursk, is actually a path to Ukrainian security and long-term independence?
It is critical to remember that a ceasefire is not a ceasewar. A ceasefire is simply an opportunity for both sides in a conflict to regroup and redouble their capacity to fight the next round of war. Israel and Hezbollah had a ceasefire in 2006. Until recently, it looked as if Hezbollah ‘won the ceasefire’ by building up what seemed to be an overwhelming rocket capacity in the south of Lebanon. In fact, much more quietly, Israel was the winner of that round of non-fighting. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, if there is a ceasefire and Russia rebuilds its capacity faster than Ukraine does, then there will be another round of warfare within a year or two. Putin’s legitimacy rests on it. The ceasefire will have served Russian purposes and extended their warfighting capacity. On the other hand, if there is a ceasefire and Ukraine outgrows and outbuilds Russia then the ceasefire will be continually extended until the present Russian government and foreign policies are abandoned.
It is this concept that serves as the key to enabling Ukrainian security under the Trump administration and beyond.
NATO countries, given rising global threats, need to raise their defense expenditures, possibly by as much as 1% of GDP. Due to their provision to Ukraine, NATO members have severe shortages of critical armaments. Among the items they do have, many are outdated in the context of 21st-century warfare (the best in European and American equipment barely made a dent in the great offensive of the summer of 2023). Some of the needed defense spending will go to top-line weapons systems like fighter jets and ships. However, significant spending is needed in more mundane areas: ballistic missiles, artillery shells, mortars, drones, body armor, armored vehicles, howitzers, etc…
For its part, Ukraine has historically been a major manufacturer of weapons. Since the 2022 re-invasion, they have re-upped their capacity and are continuing to expand it. They are, in some areas, producing among the most advanced and battle-tested war-fighting technology in the world.
The result is a match made on Earth.
In order to help address NATO’s own issues, NATO members could commit to spending 0.1% of their GDP on purchasing Ukrainian arms. The combined GDP of NATO is 46 trillion dollars, so this is 46 billion dollars — or almost exactly 1/4 of the Ukrainian GDP. Just as the rest of the world can buy Ukrainian grain, vodka and software services, the Western world would be encouraged to buy Ukrainian arms.
NATO members could purchase whatever they want from whichever Ukrainian manufacturers they want, including low-cost drones, discount howitzers… Due to Western regulations, Western quality and purchasing requirements would apply, raising the quality of the Ukrainian industry as a whole. If Ukrainian companies are successful in the competition for these arms dollars, they could expect to sell ever more into NATO stockpiles.
The result would be a rearming of NATO, massive growth in the Ukrainian arms industry, a strengthened bulwark against Russian aggression and the underwriting of the rebirth of the Ukrainian economy — all without the corrupting influence of aid dollars or the need to trust security guarantees that never stand up in the face of Realpolitik.
Ukraine is often referred to as Europe’s breadbasket. Perhaps it would benefit everybody (except Vladimir Putin himself) if Ukraine became the armory as well.
Published in Foreign Policy
” In reading the article, I detected a tone of near-celebration among the women left behind. They are buying apartments and cars — and commemorative plaques to the men who paid for it all with their lives.”
What a depressing thing.
Now do emigration….Russia is a large net negative…
“one million have fled in the last year alone, since the invasion of Ukraine. Many of them are skilled professionals – IT experts, doctors, nurses, journalists, engineers. This brain drain has only added to the Russian depopulation problem.”
Other considerations:
“Russia’s health spending per capita is pitiful – ranking 109th – while its underspending on education is gruesome.”
“…in 2019 found that Russia had the third largest number of suicides.”
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-demographics-depopulation-rate-abortion/
Addendum- Russia’s age data is skewed by the fact that it is the non-ethnic Russian population that is growing….further complicating things for Putin. Hard to have a Greater Russia with few Russians in it.
“The most recent UN projections are for the world’s population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent….. In Russia, some non-Russian ethnic groups have higher birth rates than Russians. The birth rates in the largely Muslim North Caucasus have been a particular concern for Moscow. Despite birth rates among many ethnic populations declining, births in many non-Russian communities continue to remain higher than those of ethnic Russians.”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/a-russia-without-russians-putins-disastrous-demographics/
In PPP terms, according to the IMF, …
In 2000, Russia GDP ranked #9, between that of the UK and Brazil.
In 2003, it overtook the UK and France and moved up to #7.
The following year, it moved up to #6 by overtaking Italy. It remained there until, …
… in 2021, having done a pretty good job at sanction-proofing their economy since 2014 as much as possible, …
It overtook Germany and moved up to #5.
And how have they done since the start of war?
Here:
https://carnegieendowment.orgundefined/?lang=en
One million emigrants amounts to less than 1% of Russia’s population. If you think that’s bad, check this out:
There has been much discussion about means-testing Social Security. Perhaps it is time to consider the number of children one has in the workforce or the number of employed immigrants one has successfully sponsored. Full SS benefits come with providing replacements.
That recent increase to a record high 21% central bank interest rate must mean nothing…
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/25/russias-central-bank-raises-key-rate-to-historic-21-signals-aggressive-fight-to-curb-inflation-a86806
the emptying of the central tank storage base is of no concern comrade!
many of the remaining tanks are junk….
artillery isn’t doing so well either comrade….storage depots:
only 23% of MRLS remain:
towed artillery depots down over 50%- only 1/3 of better ones left (much left is junk):
self propelled artillery down 40%- and many of the remaining old &/or junk:
although in truth much of the removal of towed artillery was probably to strip off the barrel and put it on a self propelled system that had worn out its barrel.
Means testing is a terrible idea– it rewards profligate spending in your younger days. It would reward- via government handouts- those who, rather than save, spent their income. Saving benefits the economy by being invested in future growth- additionally why encourage more people to depend on the feds for their income, rather than their own 401K/IRA?
Rather than means test, you should do a life time income test-not current income (which is what means testing does).
“Means-testing entitlement benefits could punish the very people who work the hardest and save the most, depressing economic activity and discouraging good behavior. The cure for our fiscal problems could thus end up being worse than the disease.”……The message would be: “If you are a saver and build up income to supplement Social Security, you will be penalized by having your Social Security benefits reduced.”
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/means-testing-and-its-limits
Not really my point. However I mostly agree with you. Yet I do believe that my father, for example, should have been “means tested” out of most of the benefits he received.
It’s not just the raw number, of course. How many of them were of child-bearing age, etc?
Just as NATO members buy anti-missile and anti-tank systems from Israel, they would buy lots of stuff from Ukraine. The prices are going to be better and in particular areas the tech will be as well.
Funny thing the worst cases are all near Russia– Do ya think there is a reason? You don’t suppose they know something about Russia?
Russia has 5 million less people than 1993 (excluding Crimea) while the US has gained 83M over the same period time frame. Russia’s demographic trends are only going to get worse with the war deaths & sanctions- plus it will be less & less a Greater Russia & more & more a Russiastan. The Chechens et al aren’t going to stay Putin’s junk yard dogs forever….soon the chained animal will turn on its former master.
It’s true over most of Western Europe too. The islamists don’t really have to do anything but wait, while the Europeans non-breed themselves out of existence.
In the end, it does not matter what anybody wants, it only matters what they will accept.
Remarkably, this has started. Not only are some countries beginning to pay Ukrainian firms to make arms for Ukraine, they are now just beginning to hire Ukraine itself to provide arms for them. The very last paragraph of the article includes this:
“Lithuania is also considering buying Ukrainian-made strike drones for its own armed forces”
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-cant-make-ukraine-enough-weaponsso-its-paying-kyiv-to-do-it-f9b86bf0
Beginning? I’d say that this has been the case all along. Of the tens of billions that US/NATO has allocated annually to Ukraine over the past 2 years and 9 months, the chances that at least tens of millions have NOT been devoted to keeping Ukrainian armament factories churning out ammo, drones, etc., for use on the war front are somewhere between zero and nil.
Not quite. They are merely beginning to promise to consider doing so … at some point in the future, maybe. There is a major, and quite understandably so, obstacle in the way:
“Despite parliament investigating dropping the export ban, the government still sees allowing foreign weapons sales as politically dangerous.
“Imagine what it would look like? Ukraine exports its weapons during the war while asking partners for military aid. Ukrainians would not understand, partners would not understand,” said a senior Ukrainian foreign ministry official speaking to POLITICO on condition of being granted anonymity.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-arms-industry-export-weapons/
Okay, that’s persuasive. Not definitive, mind you, but I’m impressed. I didn’t consider how the safety net/hammock issue extended into retirement planning. But, would I be willing to live on SSI alone in my golden years, even if I were the playboy of the Western World in my working years? Us oldsters actually need a slightly higher income, seeing as how we can’t sleep rough or walk long distances like we used to.
Dumb question #2: How would any peace deal be enforceable if Ukraine weren’t in NATO?
Some other defense treaty. UK is willing to sign on to anything. In the last 300 years, there have been many defense treaties in Europe. sometimes they end in world wars. In general things work well until Germany gets aggressive. Defense treaties don’t have to involve the USA.
Latest (2021):
Russia’s suicide rate is about the same as Lithuania’s and Ukraine’s, and about halfway between Japan’s and South Korea’s.
Ukraine would enforce it, by virtue of having lots of weapons and the capability to produce them by the tankload.
Ukraine won’t trust a defense treaty. They had one before 2014. Russia’s little green men shredded it. They just need their own strength and a flourishing arms industry can supply that.
No, the exports would commence sometime after the ceasefire commences.
It’s not enough to just build triggers, you also need enough people to pull them.
That didn’t happen in a vacuum. Ukraine had just had a US-supported coup, and installed a government pretty much hand picked by the US (as per the famous leaked Nuland conversation with the US Ambassador in Kiev at the time.
There are no White Hats in this mess.
That’s what Putin claims……
With whom? If it was with Germany and the UK, then it would have worked.
We should have let them keep their nukes.
Probably so. But would Putin believe they would actually use them? Seems like that belief would be essential, or there’s no point having them.
They weren’t their nukes, any more than those that the Soviet Union had had stationed in Belarus and Kazakhstan belonged to those newly independent Republics. Furthermore, the US/NATO had no standing to “let them“, since they most definitely were ours, either.
Predictably …