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Ukraine-Russia: Is it Cracking?
Missiles from the UK and US are now escalating matters, including the use of condemned anti-personnel mines. Turns out that there are no real red lines in war. The US/UK change in posture is going to change things, one way or another. The US has abandoned its embassy in Kiev.
At the same time, on the ground, Russia is winning ground – though it is slow going, and the casualties are crazy-high. And back home the economy may be reaching a tipping point: I include quotes from the Tweet below. What they are saying, out loud, is shocking. I doubt that ALL of these people will fall out of windows.
It looks like the war, which has been more-or-less a stalemate for quite some time, is about to go in all kinds of chaotic directions. I highly doubt Russia uses nukes – if they fail, then their deterrent vanishes.
The next 60 days are going to be crazy. Russia could collapse. So could Ukraine. Nukes might actually be tried. Strap in.
The quotes presented here came from the “Russian Economic Forum 2024” that just ended in Chelyabinsk.
Published in General“You said that big business has a safety cushion and will be able to survive for a long time. In fact, under the current conditions, if we continue our investment program, we will run out of money within six months. We are presently closing current projects, and we are not even thinking about subsequent investments. The current interest rate on loans simply eats up all profitability. The enterprises represented here have up to 70% of the Soviet-era worn-out production capacities. But we cannot invest in their renewal and modernization. Loans are very expensive.” – Maria Ovechkina, Head of the Financial Resources Department of the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works.
“We have basically run out of people. If we talk about the manufacturing industry, then companies say – people are leaving in droves, going to the military-industrial complex. Our problem today is simply to retain those who are there, who are left. We do not see any light in terms of the development of the labor market. The situation here continues to worsen… not stabilize, but worsen. Therefore, many are forced to pause the development of production capacities. There is simply no one to work there.” – Kirill Tremasov, Advisor to the Chairman of the Central Bank.
“Russian enterprises competing with Chinese ones are holding on with all their might. As a result of the [next] increase in the key rate, we will get a situation where key sectors of machine manufacturing will collapse. Already in the first quarter of next year, many companies – transport manufacturing and others – report a decrease in potential output of 30% or more. Why? Because no competitive business can work with loans at 27% per annum.” – Andrey Gartung, CEO of the Chelyabinsk Forging and Press Plant.
“Whoever – unfortunately or fortunately – has a state defense order, is now subject to criminal liability for failing to fulfill it. Therefore, whether 20% or 30%, everyone will come and take out a loan. Well, so as not to go to jail.” – Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist of the state corporation VEB. RF.
“I apologize, but we know what kind of gift businesses will get for the New Year: a key rate of 23%.” – Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.
“We need to balance supply and demand. But if we balance it as a whole, then [this is what we will get]: by pressing the bank rate, consumer demand, and all production, we will only retain the production of basic goods and services. Those that can be created at this high rate… Ultimately, we may even cool inflation, but we will only be left with simple goods, without robotics and other high-tech industries.” – Ivan Kutsevlyak, First Deputy Governor of the Chelyabinsk Region.
“Since 2023, three to seven representatives of Chinese companies have participated in all tenders. They win 50% of tenders and bring orders but without production in Russia. To summarize, production is not developing: European suppliers have been replaced by Chinese ones with higher prices and lower quality.” – Olga Aleksandrova, Financial Director of the Uralkran Group of Companies.
BTW, formerly-Eastern Europe is really afraid of a Russian invasion. To me, that would be impossible beyond maybe the Baltics. Russia is desperate and spent, and thus unpredictable and dangerous. But they simply lack the forces to mount another front in this war.
Russia has lots of people, and Iran, China and N Korea are willing to supply arms.
In a way, it feels like Biden/the Deep State are looking to expand this war in a way that cannot be undone.
I’m reminded of the old peacenik saying,”What if they had a war and nobody came?” It sounds as if any victory now would be pyrrhic. I hope that Trump can facilitate a cease-fire.
Russia would need time to regroup and digest what they’ve taken so far before. Poland is using that time to become the largest military power in Europe. It’s been a few centuries since that state of affairs occurred. I don’t know that Russia would ever invade, though, as long as it can turn Poland back into a client state. It probably wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine, either, except the Ukrainians soundly rejected its attempt to turn it into a client state.
As far as I can tell, Donald Trump is looking to expand the war in a way that cannot be undone. I was hoping he wouldn’t do that, but it isn’t looking good. Endless war, here we come.
This goes far beyond just handing out rifles to the citizenry and pointing them to the front. Russia’s commercial air travel is operating now on parts in need of replacement. The Pratt & Whitney engines that they use in their Airbus A320s can’t be maintained due to lack of parts.
Oil futures are trending down, too. That bodes ill for Vladimir’s piggy bank.
Oil Traders Price In Trump’s Foreign Policy as Bearish for Crude
It is astonishing to me that Russia have so many airplanes still flying. They are cutting every imaginable corner.
Au contraire. Mr Trump might just help to end it. Mr Biden’s handlers are trying to pin Mr Trump into a losing situation that offers no way out, your “way that cannot be undone”. They started this war and they don’t want it to end.
And there’s me thinking just the opposite.
At some point I expect they’ll start crashing. If they manage to take off at all.
Russia started the war after Biden greenlighted a “small” invasion.
Trump might end it if he accept Biden’s help in the form of missiles that fly back to the places where the missiles that are attacking Ukraine come from. But it didn’t sound like he appreciated the help.
One sticking point that I keep bringing up: What kind of security guarantees can Trump offer Ukraine that don’t involve U.S. boots on the ground.
The response every time: crickets.
And letting Putin sell this at home as a win means endless war. Letting China watch Ukraine lose its sovereignty means an invasion of Taiwan sooner rather than later. More endless war.
I’ll reply for you and save you the trouble:
[Insert sound of crickets here]
See #13.
Have you heard the Ben Shapiro summary of how this war can end?
If so, what’s wrong with it?
And do you really think Trump wouldn’t want that as the least bad possible option?
No. I’ve heard of Ben Shapiro, though. Does he answer the question about security guarantees? If not, is there a reason to bother with his summary?
I don’t know. Does it address the issue of security guarantees? If it does, how come my question keeps getting crickets for an answer?
Wouldn’t want what as the least bad possible option?
The part I can easily remember is:
Russia gets the eastern bits of Ukraine it already controls, stops trying for more, and there are security guarantees. (And I think Ukraine stays out of NATO.)
Unfortunately, I can’t remember what the guarantees are, if Shap happened to elaborate on them. Lots of arms sales to Ukraine was likely part of it.
Anyone out there remembering this better than I am?
That or something similar has been mentioned by a lot of people. The sticking point is security guarantees. Is there any reason Ukraine would go along with security guarantees that don’t include U.S./NATO boots on the ground unless forced to sign such a thing at gunpoint? In which case it has lost its sovereignty.
Remember, it already had security guarantees on paper, and has learned how much they are worth.
I don’t think U.S. boots on the ground are a good idea. It would be less expensive and less risky to us to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs, and let Ukraine use them, without delay, against military targets where they need to be used.
And we still have to think about the lessons that 1) Putin and 2) China would learn from this. It could make the world a lot more dangerous place.
At gunpoint? It’s already at gunpoint, and the guns are Russia’s, and they’re firing. And Russia tends not to lose a long war of attrition. If there is a better option for Ukraine, I don’t know what it would be.
But what’s your point exactly? How do you get from this difficult situation to the critique of Trump, repeated below, which seems to be the point of this conversation?
I think part your point is that Trump is not going to offer American troops on the ground in Ukraine, and therefore will not give us a good way to end the war. But I’m not following how that connects to “Trump is looking to expand the war in a way that cannot be undone.”
“Security Guarantees”. Like the one we and Russia gave Ukraine in the 90s in return for them giving up their Soviet nukes? How’d that work out for Ukraine?
Yeah. Just like that.
Maybe I implied that he knows what he is doing. I didn’t mean to do that.
Well, yes, that’s the problem. We already used that one up.
Guns are being used, but nobody except captured prisoners is being held at gunpoint. A peace agreement signed at gunpoint could be one where Zelensky and company are forced to sign, then hauled off to prison where over the next few years they die of mysterious deaths and accidents.
There are also other ways he could be made helpless to do anything else. That’s what is meant by signing it at gunpoint.
The information that I’ve seen, and heard, is contrary to the claims of the OP. Most of these sources are from Judge Napolitano’s podcast lineup.
The IMF (here) projects Russian real GDP growth of 3.6% this year. The World Bank (here) reported, earlier this summer, that 2023 Russian GDP growth was also 3.6% and that GNI (Gross National Income) grew 11.2% in 2023, “clearly demonstrating successful macroeconomic policy conducted despite external pressure.” The same World Bank source reported that in 2021, Russia had become the world’s 4th largest economy in PPP terms (purchasing power parity).
It is hard to tell what is going on in the world. I think that we receive false information from many sources. My opinion is that our government, and the bulk of our media, is highly unreliable.
So, I don’t think that there is a stalemate. I think that the Russians are clearly winning, albeit slowly.
I also think that Russian casualties are much lower than generally believed, and that their slow progress is due to caution with the lives of Russian troops. As with economic news, though, reports on this vary widely.
I agree with you about so-called “security guarantees” being the sticking point. The only path to peace, in my view, is for Ukraine to accept neutrality and not to get any “security guarantees.”
We probably disagree about the cause of the war. I view “security guarantees” as being just about synonymous with “NATO membership.” I think that our decision to press for Ukrainian NATO membership was the principal cause of the war.
I also think that we get the aggression backward. Pushing an American-led military alliance to a critical portion of Russia’s border is aggression on our side, in my view.
You left out consideration of the legitimate security concerns of the countries that used to be controlled by Russia, and how that led them to push for NATO membership. Anybody who leaves that out of the historical equation is not someone you should trust.
That’s why they emptied out their prisons and have been fielding North Koreans. Makes perfect sense.
The mere existence of Ukraine is aggression in Putin’ eyes. Next, he will claim that the existence of Poland, Lativa, Lithuania, Estonia, etc is an existential threat to Russia. Putin wants an expanded sense of preclusive security-in that he wants to attack, preemptively, any conceivable or potential opposition in former Soviet territory or its former client states of the Warsaw Pact. He is inherently expansionistic in what he feels is the rightful domain of a “Great Russia”- and that includes all central Europe.
The idea that NATO was threat to Russia, when before the invasion Germany had 225 active tanks (about half were operational), Belgium had 0 tanks, the Dutch had 18 tanks, Canada 74, Britain 158 tanks is ridiculous. Look at the German Air Force- only about 40 of its Eurofighters could fly.
NATOs latest expansion pre-invasion of Ukraine, added the mighty Macedonians & Montenegro (between them they had 31 tanks)! If we bring back the phalanx with sarissas, boy will those Macedonians be a juggernaut! NATO was in no position to attack any significant military power nor was it actively rearming in order to do so. But Putin may have changed that situation.
What do you envision as “security guarantees”? What options do you have in mind?