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Trump’s Victory in Two Graphs
I’ve done some analysis on the exit polls, comparing the results of Trump/Harris 2024 with Trump/Biden 2020. I’ve come up with two graphs that you may find interesting.
Both graphs show Trump’s increased or decreased margin of victory for various groups, with a positive number indicating that Trump did better among that group, and a negative number indicating that he did worse. As an example, Trump’s margin of victory changed by -5% (i.e. it decreased) among white voters, who he won by a margin of 12% in 2024 (55%-43%) and won by a margin of 17% in 2020 (58%-41%)
The main graph is an attempt to show three groupings on a single graph — race, religion, and sex:
As you can see, Trump lost ground among white voters slightly, was essentially even among black voters (1% improvement), but did far better among Latinos, improving his margin by 25%.
By religion, Trump’s big gain was among Catholics, improving his margin by 20%. He also did better among religious “others,” but this is a much smaller group than Catholics. Catholics are 22% of the electorate, “others” are 10%.
Trump improved marginally among both men and women, but I don’t find the difference between these to be notable.
The polls are from CNN, for 2024 and 2020, respectively. The polls don’t give crosstabs between Catholics and Latinos. I expect that Latinos are a substantial part of the overall Catholic vote, but I don’t know how much.
Focusing on these two groups with significant change:
- Trump did not win Latinos, but improved from a 33% deficit in 2020 (32%-65%) to a mere 8% deficit in 2024 (45%-53%).
- Trump flipped Catholics, winning by a 15% margin in 2024 (56%-41%) after losing by a 5% margin in 2020 (47%-52%).
One fairly simple interpretation of these results is that Catholics were more inclined to vote for one of their own, Joe Biden, in 2020. (This isn’t meant as a criticism, by the way.)
The second graph is sex-by-race, which shows the male-female aspect of Trump’s major improvement among Latinos:
Trump’s margin among Latino men improved by a whopping 33%. After losing Latino men 36%-59% in 2020, he actually won this group in 2024, 54%-44%. His improvement among Latino women is also notable, though overshadowed by the huge swing among the men.
There are other ways to parse the electorate, so I don’t want to imply that the Latino and Catholic swings are the only factors of importance. I do find them notable.
Published in Election 2024
I find slavery to be a trivial issue, compared with abortion. Our country is slaughtering over 1 million babies per year.
I’ve come to the view that slavery is simply not a big deal, and is not morally wrong. Biblical teaching is quite clear about this. From the historical accounts that I’ve read, many slaves in early America were treated quite well. I’ve seen a report that their life expectancy plunged when slavery was abolished. I don’t advocate bringing slavery back, but I don’t find it to be a particularly important issue.
On the other hand, a mother killing her baby is just about the worst thing imaginable, to me. Not to excuse other murderers, but it is most awful when it’s the victim’s mother, I think.
This happens in our country over 1 million times a year, according to the latest statistics that I’ve seen. Babies.
Do you actually think that slavery is worse than killing a baby? That would be a strange view, to me.
Until recently, I could view this horrible situation as having been imposed on us by a small cabal of Supreme Court justices. No longer. Now, the opinion of the bulk of my fellow citizens is clear, and I find it terrible.
I might say, “Lord have mercy.” But I’ve actually stopped praying for mercy for our country, for the most part. I’m not praying specifically for judgment and wrath. I’m praying for His will to be done.
Heaven knows that we deserve judgment and wrath.
Mayor Pete is one of the “smoother and better liars”
This has been an interesting thread so far, but we’ve wandered well off the points made in the OP to discussion of abortion and slavery. If possible, I’d like to get back to an issue from the OP that we haven’t discussed.
What are your thoughts about the extremely large margin improvement for Trump among male Latino voters? It was a 33% swing, from Trump losing this group by 23% in 2020 to winning by 10% in 2024.
Latino women moved in Trump’s direction too, but by much less than the men.
One possibility that occurs to me is machismo. Perhaps male Latino voters remain sufficiently traditional that they just don’t like voting for women. Personally, I wouldn’t object to this, any more than I object to a Catholic preferring to vote for another Catholic.
“What difference, at this point, does it make?”
Via the takeover of the public (and elite private) schools.
To say that women want to “kill their babies” is rather harsh. Young women, especially, have no idea what abortion actually is. It is sold to them as a pro-woman issue. They have no idea what a surgical abortion involves.
Accurate abortion statistics are hard to come by, but the abortion pill has taken the lead over surgical abortions. As with the lack of knowledge about surgical abortion, women have been told that the abortion pill will just be like a bad period and not that it comes with very serious side effects, like death from sepsis. Like Vietnam, we are in hearts and minds territory.
The idea of fathers being supportive of their daughters having abortions, is very strange too. A couple weeks ago, Greg Gutfeld referred to them as needing to start a group, “Fathers Against Grandchildren,” although “the acronym would be unfortunate.”
I disagree with this. I think that women know exactly what abortion is.
But hey, maybe women really are as ignorant as you claim. If so, this is worse for one’s general opinion of the fairer sex, isn’t it?
My recommendation is to stop making excuses for murderers.
Yes couldn’t agree more. While the moral law may be written on our hearts most of us need a good deal of explanation and persuasion to recognize it. We also need a good deal or support to abide by it when it goes against our immediate interest. Those young women are not any more evil than the rest of us. They are stuck in a culture with some really bad ideas.
Hey, when I think of evil people in this country, I tend to think of the sociopaths that infest our political class. I suppose to our credit we haven’t yet elevated a Stalin, Mao Tse Tung, or Pol Pot.
Jews and black men are among the strongest constituencies for the Democrats, Steve.
This is shown in the exit poll data linked in the OP. Black men favored Harris by 58%, 78%-20%. Jews favored Harris by the exact same margin, 58%, 79%-21%. The only group that was more supportive of Harris was black women, by 85%, 92%-7%.
Jews, in particular, are the very worst group in terms of supporting abortion, at least according to the Pew Research poll that I recall (here). Jews supported abortion by 68%, 83%-15%.
This is a trend that I see among people who consider themselves conservative. They think that Jews and black men are on their side. It is delusional.
But it does bear out the historical idea that if the Democrats don’t get at least 90+% of the black vote – men AND women – they lose.
I don’t think many conservatives “think that Jews and black men are on their side” politically, Jerry. I do think that many of us believe that Jewish Americans and black Americans are constituencies that we can try to win over, and should try to win over. They represent a fertile mission field, if you will, for conservative/Republican recruiting.
Thanks for putting together this data. It is helpful
For anyone who is looking into the important data involving the numbers of people who cast ballots in Nov 2020 and the people who cast ballots in 2024, this is a most salient consideration:
Candace Owens posted a graph in her recent show on how the number of ballots cast on 2016, vs number of ballots cast on Nov 2020, vs the number of ballots cast on Nov 2024.
Her chart “This is an amazing chart,” begins at the 9:38 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqfcCXHuiyg&t=3134s
Over on “X” people are discussing this fact, that all the legions of fact checkers somehow missed the massive increase of ballot numbers across the 2 elections from 2016 vs 2020. Yet every single time someone mentioned that there was something “off” about the 2020 election, then they were slammed for their stupidity. And now there is this suspicious drop in ballots cast on Nov 5th 2024.
A typical “X” comment on the missing ballots from Tuesday’s count:Steve on “X”, user ID: @lonelyrang
20 million voters from the 2020 election are missing and presumed dead. Any information leading to the whereabouts of these missing voters will be helpful in proving fraud in the 2020 election. Thank you.
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Your excellent work is admirable, Jerry. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
But can I add that from discussions that I have noticed, white women voted for Trump at a 52% percentage? I have heard so often how the problem in this country is the women, when in my own circles on social media accounts I have had friends whose husbands divorced them for supporting Trump.
And these are constituencies that Trump has started to win over. His percentages went up in each group. Voting shifts don’t happen instantly.
https://x.com/nachamasol/status/1854560592767705170
More Jewish vote data. Here are two heavily Orthodox Jewish districts in Teaneck, NJ. Voted overwhelmingly for Trump. Note: these are also highly educated neighborhoods.
Fox News’ Exit Poll shows that Donald Trump has received a record 43% of the Jewish vote in New York, the highest share for a Republican presidential candidate in decades.
https://x.com/search?q=jewish%20votes%20for%20trump&src=typed_query
Or completely