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Washington Finally Admits It; We Can’t Win a War
I hope that all of you out there in Ricochet Land read Jim Geraghty’s column in this past Monday’s (23 September) National Review. In his column, Geraghty refers to a report by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. This year, virtually all of this nation’s attention has been fixed on the Presidential elections; so much so that little attention has been paid to the report. In Washington, D.C. commissions come and go (usually with little effect). However, this 132-page report and the bleak picture it paints should be one of the major issues of the November elections. (See Attachment 1, Go to “Commission Findings…..”, click on ‘its report’)
Sadly, it won’t be. In a poll by the Pew Research Center (taken in early September), National Defense isn’t even mentioned as a concern for voters. It should be.
In case anyone has missed it, the Chinese have made one threatening move after another in the Pacific. While it is no surprise that they have made their usual provocative actions around Taiwan, they have also sent ships to stake out their dubious claims to territory surrounding the Philippines. In addition, they have already sailed their ships close to the territorial waters of Japan and Vietnam. To top it off China simultaneously deployed three carrier groups to different areas of the South China Sea shortly after they sent three icebreakers to the Arctic. All in all, over 400 ships were involved in these exercises.
How has China been able to muster such a naval force? To put it bluntly, they have the industrial capacity to turn out warships “like sausages”. (See Attachment 2.) China can build roughly 234 ships while we labor to build one. AS we deindustrialized, the Chinese did exactly the opposite.
Now, there are those in America who will say that China’s superior numbers mean nothing, that American technology will win the day. Have these people taken into account that the Chinese have been stealing our technology as fast as we’ve produced it? And while they’re thinking about that, perhaps they should remember Joseph Stalin’s (and Mao’s) old adage that, “Quantity has a quality all its own.”
As the Commission’s report states, the Chinese are no longer our equals; they have passed us in many areas. (I strongly urge everyone here at Ricochet to read the report. Although it is 132 pages, the meat of the report can be found in only 80 or so pages.)
Because of the bipartisan nature of the report’s authors, I believe they could not drill down to many of our military’s problems. I would like to touch on a few of these.
The old saying that “the fish rots from the head” is the perfect description for our U.S. military today. While American corporations, left and right, are discarding the insane philosophy known as DEI, our military stubbornly clings to it, even refusing to justify its need. (See Attachment 3, below.)
I believe that we have too many in the flag ranks who subscribe to DEI (or are direct beneficiaries of it) and far too few who are warfighters who realize the dangers of injecting political philosophies into the rank and file.
However, even if we had a military leadership who could lead, just where are the troops of the future that they would lead? Answer: They’re not there. Today’s all-volunteer force is running on fumes. The reasons why were ably presented in, of all places, an article by VOX. (See Attachment 4, below).
Only about 25% of today’s young men and women are deemed eligible to enter into the Armed Forces. The rest are too stupid, too fat, or too doped up. Of the 25% who are eligible, there is a sizable number who want no part of the military (fear of injury, etc.). To me, this is a sign of a nation in decline.
The reasons for this range from schools that can’t or won’t teach and couldn’t care less about the welfare of the students all the way to parents who care nothing for their children’s health, welfare or education. No matter the reason, these kids are being let down.
Faced with this situation, the military has tried to cut corners to fill its ranks. The Air Force has changed the body mass index standards, altered the existing hand and neck tattoo policy, and issued marijuana waivers. The Army has begun 90-day “pre-boot camps” for would-be soldiers who cannot meet physical standards or pass their entrance tests. The Army says it’s working; I wonder if it’s setting up another “McNamara’s Morons” situation. As for the Navy, two admirals came up with the idea of accepting more of the recruits who scored in the bottom 30% of testing. Said one of the admirals, “We’re opening the aperture.” (Make of that what you will.)
In spite of all this, I do believe that we have some reasons for optimism:
a. Our submarine force is still second to none. Although the Chinese were rumored to be catching up, I saw that last summer one of their nuclear subs sank at its mooring. (I’m still smiling.)
b. Our military has finally acknowledged the need to disperse the forces in the Pacific (Tinian, Peleliu). If they can be adequately protected, it will be a huge plus.
c. If the Quad Four (the U.S., Australia, India and Japan) can put words into action, the Chinese will be facing more than one adversary.
d. Our new B-21 Bomber should be an excellent addition to the force (if the Chinese have not already stolen the plans for it).
So what next? First of all, to put it indelicately, Congress and the DOD need to quit jerking around and tell the American public the truth: China (along with Russia, Iran and North Korea) are our enemies and war will affect everyone, not just the military. At the same time, Congress must increase responsible military spending and cut back on entitlements.
When it comes to Congress, I am very pessimistic. How many of us are confident that people such as “the Squad,” Bennie Thompson and Maxine Waters (not to mention Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Green) can put their country ahead of their petty politics?
As for the executive branch, when it comes to the shuffling dullard presently in the White House, I consider it fortunate that the Chinese are not already closing in on Hawaii. He should have ordered at least three U.S. Navy ships to protect the Philippine forces but he was too busy suntanning. If his vice president were to succeed him, she would probably follow the same course of action.
In a way, the Dullard and the Cackler are following in the tradition of the last two Democratic administrations. Bill Clinton, when not chasing office interns, could not wait to spend the “Peace Dividend” and get the Chinese into the WTO. Barack Obama, when he was not bowing before other heads of state, sought to be conciliatory toward China which, in reality, played right into their hands.
Will we ever get a President (along with a Military and State Department) who will have the cojones to push back on Chinese attempts to reshape the international order? I’d like to think so, but I doubt I’ll see him or her in my lifetime.
https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/368528/us-military-army-navy-recruit-numbers
Published in General
It sounds pretty dismal, doesn’t it? Let’s hope that Kamala doesn’t get elected and make things much, much worse.
I’m 8 pages into the report, and oof… There aren’t any surprises so far, but the stark, direct language is worrying. And yet, I think it could probably stand to be worded even more strongly.
From my own limited background in the military (I was an AWAC-er), I was shocked last year when the USAF started decommissioning the E-3 without even formally identifying, let alone developing and buying, a replacement. Because who needs airborne command and control? (sarcasm). The USAF has since identified a platform (a version of the RAAF’s Wedgetail), but it’ll probably be years before that platform hits the ramp at KTIK.
I’m hoping that the report mentions that at some point, but perhaps that’s too granular for this level of analysis.
“Have these people taken into account that the Chinese have been stealing our technology as fast as we’ve produced it?”
Uhm.. We’ve been giving it to them since the 90s.
Here’s a gem (emphasis mine):
– The ballooning U.S. deficit also poses national security risks. Therefore, increased secu-
rity spending should be accompanied by additional taxes and reforms to entitlement
spending.
The US government has funded 2,000 research papers with Chinese collaborators in the last decade. So, not just stealing US technology, we are literally giving it to them.
Great post. This is disturbing and has been made worse by Joe “Beijing” Biden selling out to China for the last decade. I think that Tienanmen Tim Walz would be worse. There was a time when we could out-compete nations economically. I don’t see that happening.
I don’t think that the United States’ military has ever really been ready for a war since the War of 1812. In times past, distance has kept the enemy away long enough for us to ramp up to the challenge.
I have read that even in the cold war days, the DEW line would not have given interceptors the time to stop the vast majority of Russian bombers if they had attempted to attack us. The likelihood of turning back an ICBM attack was even more remote.
I wish that I could find that article. I thought that it was in Invention and Innovation Magazine, but I could be wrong.
The ancient Greek tale of the Trojan horse may have a modern equivalent more deadly than anything we have ever known. I doubt that our corrupt “intelligence community” is on this in a meaningful way if the attempts on Donald Trump’s life are any indication.
What was the old saying – something like God protects fools, drunks and the United States of America? I hope that He still does.
I was stunned to see how many had been retired. First the ground TACS shrank and now the airborne. I guess 963rd stickers won’t be showing up everywhere now.
I see it’s being put on the 737 platform. Hope all the bugs have been ironed out.
I think I would be happier with something less vulnerable to EMP, let alone cyber-hacking etc.
But we want them to LIKE us!!!
With three secrets, we get egg roll!
This would be consistent with the Chinese Communist Party funding the Democrat Party.
If… you know… such a thing was possible.
963rd?! I’m an alumnus, too!
A few years ago there was a thread on Twitter capturing about twenty flag officers spouting the DEI line. I was dismayed to see our, at the time, incoming AFRL commander bragging about the diversity work he was doing at his then current job. Fortunately, I didn’t see a lot him implement a lot of DEI nonsense during his time as AFRL commander. In general, there isn’t a lot of it at my level. I do shout into the wind every year with the climate survey and say to get rid of DEI altogether.
We’re only a lab, focused on technology, but the Pacific plays a big part in our plans. We’re working on ways to protect.
There was a commander, I think for AMC, who told his airmen, in a MAJCOM-wide speech, to prepare for losses if things get hot with China. It won’t be like Iraq and Afghanistan. If the administration cared anything about America they would be concerned about the military-aged men crossing the border. What kind of sabotage could happen at home if things get hot? Instead, they see illegals as a short-term way to maintain power. If only they understood second and third order effects.
The Houthis don’t fear us.
I suspect that God’s appraisal of the US is more like his appraisal of Sodom and Gomorrah, and they didn’t fare well.
Can’t wait to read the fortune cookie.
I recommend the book “The Generals: American Military Command from World War 2 to Today” by Thomas E. Hicks.
This book is a good resource for those wanting to get a better understanding of the decline of US Military leadership who are not already steeped in it. Hicks went of the rails a bit later with his personal politics that lean leftward, but this book is still a solid peace of work that I think provides a helpful analysis.
Also, Erik Prince wrote a good yet sobering essay called “Too Big to Win”, link here. A much shorter read but also points to the need for a flexible, creative, and cost effective way of trying to pursue national security and cope with conflicts. Prince is a controversial figure. After reading his biography though I really understand him much better and the legacy of Blackwater. It’s much more interesting than the media depicted it.
There’s no way of avoiding the debt problem the USA has when it comes to the military and national defense. Simply adding more money won’t cut it. A new and leaner approach much be developed if it is to have lasting effectiveness. It starts with changing leadership and incentives I believe.
Other books that give tangential enlightenment into how the DOD complex works is the Skunk Works by Ben Rich book and the John Boyd biography (the fighter pilot responsible for a change in air force aircraft and tactics).
The Houthis have defeated the US Navy
But the EU and France haven’t given up. They’re still fighting for freedom
—————–
This headline is provocative, but there is some truth to it from the telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/24/red-sea-houthis-us-navy-prosperity-guardian-iran-gaza/
They recently downed another MQ-9.
You are correct that it was a very good book but the author’s name is Thomas E. Ricks.
I’m a ground TACS person myself but I have worked closely with my airborne brothers and even flown with them. Still attached in my head: 355, 1604, “Balls 8”
Nice! Got a few buddies in the GTACS field.
Pretty sure I flew on two of those tails.
The Suez canal is used by European countries and China and those countries guard the shipping lanes, not the USA.
The Chinese will never close the Diversity Gap. Show me even one Chinese trans soldier. And their racial uniformity is appalling.
We can only hope that the politics governing promotion in the Chinese military is a bigger hindrance to excellence and competence than the case in our military.
Can’t ignore the Red Sea exit.
yes. The shipping lanes includes Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Well your astute observations lead me to believe that those charged with military operations think it is just too easy to fight wars on two, three or four fronts with the way that things have been set up.
If you want a challenge, what better way than to offer up the military a spectacular one as they now face the handicap of eliminating the E-3 and going to a new platform not yet available!
We won’t have a shot at limiting military spending as long as we employ mercenary groups of contractors, like Black Water.
Here is a compendium of the criticisms of that one contracting group: https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=iba&hsimp=yhs-3&type=teff_10019_FFW_ZZ&grd=1&p=the+corruption+of+BlackWater
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=iba&hsimp=yhs-3&type=teff_10019_FFW_ZZ&grd=1&p=the+corruption+of+BlackWater