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Jobs Revision: 818,000 Jobs Just Went “Poof”
For months, I’ve been haranguing Ricochetti about the growing disparity between the jobs numbers reported by the Establishment Survey vs. the Household Survey, pointing to my belief that the headline numbers from the Establishment report were, like the rent, “too damn high.”
Well, well, well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released a revision to the jobs numbers, and 818,000 of those Establishment report jobs just evaporated. Add those to last year’s downward revision of 307,000 and that means that 1.125 MILLION of those Biden-Harris highly trumpeted jobs were figments of the BLS’s imagination.
If I were the conspiratorial type, I’d be tempted to speculate that they needed amped-up job numbers to boost the Biden campaign. The PR from those numbers is in the mix.
Now, Biden is gone and they have an energized Brutus Harris campaign. So what the donor class really, really needs now is a rate cut to boost the market. But the ‘fantastic’ jobs numbers are making the Fed skittish about cutting rates. Soooooooo…. We have a huge revision and Shazam …. Rate cuts look much more likely.
What’s the real story with jobs?
To gauge the health of the economy, I focus my attention on Full Time Employment. The numbers come from the Household Survey. That’s the same data set used to calculate the official unemployment rate. Its bona fides are impeccable.
Full-time jobs are the kinds of jobs that people can build a life around. So let’s look at those…
That means Trump’s economy Created about 3MM more NEW full-time jobs than Biden. More than 2X more.
And most recently…
Over half a MILLION fewer Americans are employed full-time than a year ago.
Published in Economy
But what does that really do for voters? How many people would refinance their home during that time period?
Maybe in this case they were neither “saved” nor “created?” If they actually went away for a while, they were not “Saved,” and if they’re not actually new jobs they were not “Created.”
Maybe “recovered” jobs? I guess nobody thought of that yet.
The important thing is that there is a long list of questions that no journalist has ever asked. They should be put into a database online.
I don’t know about other news markets, but the Chicago flacks alit upon “new and suspected” Covid cases without ever explaining what “suspected” might mean. If the case is later confirmed, do you count it again?
I expect THEY did.
the scary number isn’t the jobs numbers- it is labor force participation-particularly for men. Unemployment numbers exclude those who aren’t looking for work-for whatever reason- despair, living off others, drugs etc. The percentage of men without paid works has been at or more than the depression level for awhile.
Nicholas Eberstadt is about the only person who gives this much attention.
Better.
The people “controlling” the economy and all of that are corrupt idiots.
They obviously lie about inflation. I don’t even think they could measure it if they were totally honest about it. The job numbers have always been revised down for months and now we have this.
Extremely well done. This is how stupid it all is.
The media is a disaster. You can’t tell me that’s in any of the Federalist Papers.
In the not too distant future, the only people that are only going to make out are the ones holding physical precious metals.
I don’t mind the revisions. The problem is when they are one way all of the time. Now this.
I pay money to listen to interviews of hedge fund guys. This only ends one way. A lot of inflation. You won’t have a crash, but there will be a lot of distortions. It’s the only way you can hold everything together.
Considering the changes they have made in how they calculate unemployment, for example the huge number of people who have stopped looking are not counted, I think the real unemployment rate is not that far off of average depression level numbers.
Then maybe it’s just a matter of crashing the average income like happened back then. By around 50% if I remember what I read.
The best part of this whole event is the Secretary of Commerce, wherein the Bureau of Labor Statistics resides, was not aware. Imagine how you would feel if you were a shareholder in a business and the CEO appeared on Cavuto and when asked about the latest quarterly report admitted she was not aware earnings had been released.
Fresh today from The Liberal Hivemind on YouTube. I like it!
It’s terrible. The Fed supposedly central plans the interest rate and pushing the economy around. the data they are supposedly using is bizarre. And then everybody goes along with it. really it’s just a bogey for the stock market to go up. It’s a bogey to keep forking out the inflation to keep everything afloat: the debt and the excessive government.
Trump said it so it was therefore a lie. That was her reasoning.
There are too many politicized idiots controlling everything. Shocking statement.
I’m surprised they don’t assume people are dieting and reduce prices by half . . .
Like this moron, Jared Bernstein, Biden’s Chief Economist, who can’t explain how money works.
We have to assume that the Fed (and the government) create/publish data to support a pre-selected policy. The plan is to juice the markets before the election, therefore the jobs data must be revised downward to justify the policy. They are evil not dumb.
The Ludwig von Mises Institute Is Right About Everything™
I listen to hedge fund guys talk about this stuff all of the time. We are either going to get a ton of more inflation or I heard one guy say that the Fed can buy a ton of our debt and he thinks nothing is going to happen.
I think they can “equation” that too, in different places. Like, assuming if rent gets “too high,” people move to a smaller place.
I remember when they seemed to think that producing just ONE $1 Trillion coin would do the job.
That idiot notion is still on the table. It’s a way to lawyer their way out of the debt ceiling, without even bothering to get the farce through congress. Have treasury just make a platinum coin, value it at 1 trillion, and then voila! Another trillion dollars to spend.
Monetizing the debt would be very inflationary. I don’t know of any scenario where “nothing is going to happen”.
The tera-coin idea work around the debt ceiling limit as an accounting gimmick. It does not reduce the debt or inflation or interest rates.