What’s the Hurry, Joe?

 

Many people have speculated about the date selected for the first Presidential debate. Many questions have been raised about having it before the candidates are formally selected at their respective conventions, of having the debates so early in the season, and since Biden chose the date, how influential he was in agreeing to the debate and choosing the date.

I suspect that Biden knows — as do his managers and Dr. Jill — that hiding out and avoiding Trump would work against him. His poll numbers are a disaster, although I can’t figure out why Biden fails in every category in a Fox News poll, except in his overall governance. What’s that about?

Since Biden’s mental acuity has become especially detrimental to his image, he/his managers may have figured out that the sooner they have the debate, the better; the less probability there will be for his mumbling and stumbling getting worse.

There have also been rumors that if he doesn’t perform well (better to know sooner rather than later) at the debate, a small cadre of his managers will tell him he has to step down. How they expect him to leave without a fuss, particularly a public fuss, is above my pay grade.

We then have to wonder who would replace him. Some people say they will bribe Kamala Harris to step down, too. Then what? Would they select Gavin Newsom? I know some think he’s handsome (not my type), but his record in California is atrocious. And I can’t imagine any other Democrat that is anywhere near qualified.

I’m amused at all the “guidance” that Trump is getting from everywhere about how he should behave at the debate: he should “tone it down” and not be so brash; he should let Biden do most of the talking because he’ll run out of juice and start losing his grasp on reality; Trump shouldn’t beat up on Biden too badly, because he’ll look like a bully, and Biden will become a sympathetic character.

More than anything, this is one time that I find the speculation somewhat amusing, despite the sobering fact that how these men perform may be a factor in who runs the country for the next four years. Yet many seem to think that the citizens have already decided who they will vote for.

Do you think they’ve decided?

Could they be convinced to change their minds by the performances at the debate?

I know that many of you hate to watch these debates.

This time, though, I’d pop the popcorn.

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  1. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    For the Democrats it’s an example of the two-way win. That’s win if you win, it’s great; if you lose, you still have something useful or fortunate. In this case, if Biden performs well maybe his poll numbers improve and (with a little help from ballot counters) can be dragged across the finish line again. If he loses, then the replacement plan (sans Kamala)  can be embraced and implemented and the heretofore focus on cognitive issues in the campaign are eliminated.

    The fascinating question for me if are there two camps in the professional operatives who want a win or a loss? Or are they all rooting for a loss in order to implement a replacement? My guess is that there must be two camps because I was expecting a replacement before now. Could Kamala really be seen by Democrats as that awful? Apparently. 

    • #1
  2. EODmom Coolidge
    EODmom
    @EODmom

    I think we spend too much time speculating on rational (professional?) motivations for things OBiden do. I believe the decision for the date was based on something I couldn’t even guess at. I assume there is some long view “they”* stick to because “they” seem to make no adjustments for what he ends up doing.  I assume they know his state of play and don’t care. I also believe that if/when he’s no longer useful some announcement will be made on his behalf and what Jill or Joe think will not matter. I really don’t think Jill has the veto or deciding vote she thinks she has. Obama just doesn’t care what others think of him or his actions and I assume those behind him have other things in their mind. 

    I can’t contort my brain to guess but my motto is Expect a surprise. 

    * The “they” we all believe are really running things. 

    • #2
  3. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Rodin (View Comment):
    The fascinating question for me if are there two camps in the professional operatives who want a win or a loss? Or are they all rooting for a loss in order to implement a replacement?

    Great question. There must be two camps, but it’s hard to know if one dominates over the other. If Joe blows it, I think everyone will be on the same page.

    • #3
  4. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    EODmom (View Comment):
    I can’t contort my brain to guess but my motto is Expect a surprise. 

    I agree. Predictions are fun but not consequential.

    • #4
  5. EJHill Staff
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    One can parse the polls all they want but the election will probably be decided by the double haters. Do they break one way or the other or do they simply give up and not vote?

    Our problem, and by “our” I mean those of us deeply interested in politics, is that we’re too online and too invested and have really have no idea where the vast majority of the country is at. And despite the early debate here, this campaign has not yet truly started.

    Wait until the last primaries in August determine the final slate of candidates. Then the local commercials are going to try to hang the foibles at the top of the ticket down ballot. If Biden is still on the ticket both sides are going to run an albatross campaign. “Don’t vote for ‘candidate X’ because he is so-and-so’s enabler.” If Joe is gone that dynamic changes.

    If the Democrats decide Joe has to go I don’t expect them to be rational in their choice for a replacement since their natural reaction to being down in the polls or losing a race is always, “Well, we weren’t progressive enough.” Policy-wise it’s not going to get better. 

    • #5
  6. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    EJHill (View Comment):
    If the Democrats decide Joe has to go I don’t expect them to be rational in their choice for a replacement since their natural reaction to being down in the polls or losing a race is always, “Well, we weren’t progressive enough.

    Unbelievable. But you’re probably right.

    • #6
  7. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    I don’t think Biden will be the candidate. I think the Democrats will use the convention to say an emotional and large “Thank you, Joe,” and replace him a week or two later.

    This is not good for the Republican ticket because both Biden and Trump suffer from what Karl Rove once described as “overexposure.” In other words, people have grown tired of both of them. A brand-new candidate–sort of like Trump in 2016–will garner nonstop global press coverage.

    Also, I don’t see Biden getting through an hourlong debate. I think he’s good for about twenty or thirty minutes, tops.

    He’ll only do one debate, citing Trump’s belligerence as the reason for not doing any more.

    I am sure there is a roughed-out plan for the week or two after the Democratic convention.

    Legally, it’s a weird period. You have a candidate as finalized at the convention, but if something happens to that candidate between the finalization and the November election, it’s not a done deal that the VP steps in. The VP was not nominated, and in fact, she would be elected separately in November.

    This a political freefall moment, and the press coverage will be astounding. Which will be good for the Democrats.

    • #7
  8. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    PS: I have so many questions about the legality of the Biden presidency anyway. No one ever mentions it, but I keep wondering if his signature is valid, or when it won’t be anymore because he’s not of “sound mind.”

    The report that has been squelched–not the transcript, but the video recording–of the congressman’s questioning him about classified documents stored in Biden’s Delaware home, I believe that was the issue, calls into question everything he’s doing right now legally, at least I think it does. How can you hold accountable someone whose mind is as fragile as his is?

    I have so many questions and concerns about what is going on right now.

    • #8
  9. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    MarciN (View Comment):
    I have so many questions and concerns about what is going on right now. 

    So do I, Marci! That’s why I wrote the post. Thanks for weighing in.

    • #9
  10. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    Susan Quinn: We then have to wonder who would replace him? Some people say that they will bribe Kamala Harris to step down, too. Then what? Would they select Gavin Newsom? I know some say he’s handsome (not my type), but his record in California is atrocious. And I can’t imagine any other Democrat that is anywhere near qualified.

    Gavin Newsom is the governor of California, but so what?  Democrats own California.  If I were a Democrat, I would want a candidate who has proven that he or she can win a lot of independents.  Specifically, I would look at Democratic governors who won despite being in a mostly Republican state.  I would also look at Joe Manchin. 

    Susan Quinn:

    Most people seem to think that the citizens have already decided who they will vote for.

    Do you think they’ve decided?

    Could they be convinced to change their minds by the performances at the debate?

    A lot of voters won’t make up their minds until November.  Many of them will have forgotten that this upcoming debate even took place. 

    On Election Night 2012, there were news organizations talking about the exit polling that they had done.  One of the questions they asked was something along the line of, “What was the most important issue that made up your mind on who to vote for?”  A substantial portion of the voters responded with, “Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy.”  Obama’s response to the storm was absolutely bone-stock American presidential response.  He went to the storm location, had his picture taken with a bunch of local politicians, and promised to send a bunch of federal dollars.  The same thing that practically any other president would have done.  There was nothing remarkable about it.  But to a sizable percentage of American voters, their memory of things political could go back no further than a couple weeks, and seeing Obama’s picture was something they could remember.  So in a close election, fate will play a huge part.  If one week before Election Day, Joe Biden loses track of what he was saying and starts talking about old John Wayne movies, that could move enough votes to ruin him.  Donald Trump is equally capable of shooting himself in the foot by saying something that reinforces a preexisting negative image people have of him.  Or some event could happen that Biden has no control of whatsoever, that will swing people towards or away from him. 

    I’m sorry for sounding so dismissive of the intellect of many of my fellow Americans, but a number of people just figure that if something good happens, the president should get the credit.  If something bad happens, the president should get the blame, even if there’s nothing that any president could have done.  How many idiots blame Trump for Covid coming to America, as if this global pandemic would have passed us by if only Hillary Clinton had been president?

    • #10
  11. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    I’m going out of a limb here and I’ll say that it doesn’t matter who the Demo-rats have as a candidate. No one will vote for Biden; no one will vote for HarrisPlenty of people will vote against Trump. I’ll summarize what I’ve said before: The Democrats may have written off the Presidency, and their plan could be to expand control of the Senate and capture the House. They can make sure that nothing Trump wants to achieve will be done legislatively, and will fight each and every attempt at EOs. 

    Under those conditions, the damage that Biden as front man had done to the country will not be undone to any significant degree. Four years is not that long to a true believer, and the Dems can count on RINOs to help stall Trump’s initiatives. As Dan Bongino has said, “There are many Republicans who are really Democrats, but there are no Democrats who are really Republicans.”

    • #11
  12. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):
    I’m sorry for sounding so dismissive of the intellect of many of my fellow Americans, but a number of people just figure that if something good happens, the president should get the credit.  If something bad happens, the president should get the blame, even if there’s nothing that any president could have done.  How many idiots blame Trump for Covid coming to America, as if this global pandemic would have passed us by if only Hillary Clinton had been president?

    I don’t think the low-educated voters numbers have changed, Randy. Especially when life is so tumultuous. It’s just easier to find something else to do. Those of us who care about outcomes and try to educate ourselves may not be able to predict the future, but we want to be as well-educated as we can. It will be interesting to see if the debate teaches us anything.

    • #12
  13. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Django (View Comment):
    Plenty of people will vote against Trump.

    I don’t think that will be as easy a decision as in the past, Django. But we shall see!

    • #13
  14. Gary McVey Contributor
    Gary McVey
    @GaryMcVey

    Debating is not Trump’s strength. He can do it; he’s turned in some decent performances. When he feels like it. My problem with him in the first 2020 debate is, he didn’t feel like it, so he did a lousy job. 

    He had one job to do: let Biden try to finish a sentence. Biden couldn’t do it. Fortunately for Biden, he didn’t have to. Some damn fool kept shouting him down. That can’t happen again. 

    Trump is acting a lot more disciplined this time. I’m definitely tuning in. 

    • #14
  15. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Gary McVey (View Comment):

    Debating is not Trump’s strength. He can do it; he’s turned in some decent performances. When he feels like it. My problem with him in the first 2020 debate is, he didn’t feel like it, so he did a lousy job.

    He had one job to do: let Biden try to finish a sentence. Biden couldn’t do it. Fortunately for Biden, he didn’t have to. Some damn fool kept shouting him down. That can’t happen again.

    Trump is acting a lot more disciplined this time. I’m definitely tuning in.

    Gary, his most recent behavior has been decent towards others (although he still may be calling Biden “Sleepy Joe,” and I think he’s even shown some sympathy for Joe’s mental condition. Let’s hope he behaves at the debate!

    • #15
  16. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Gary McVey (View Comment):

    Debating is not Trump’s strength. He can do it; he’s turned in some decent performances. When he feels like it. My problem with him in the first 2020 debate is, he didn’t feel like it, so he did a lousy job.

    He had one job to do: let Biden try to finish a sentence. Biden couldn’t do it. Fortunately for Biden, he didn’t have to. Some damn fool kept shouting him down. That can’t happen again.

    Trump is acting a lot more disciplined this time. I’m definitely tuning in.

    It is promising that reports about Trump’s recent meetings with GOP leaders have emphasized that he is centered on winning. 

    • #16
  17. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Gary McVey (View Comment):

    Debating is not Trump’s strength. He can do it; he’s turned in some decent performances. When he feels like it. My problem with him in the first 2020 debate is, he didn’t feel like it, so he did a lousy job.

    He had one job to do: let Biden try to finish a sentence. Biden couldn’t do it. Fortunately for Biden, he didn’t have to. Some damn fool kept shouting him down. That can’t happen again.

    Trump is acting a lot more disciplined this time. I’m definitely tuning in.

    You’ve hit a sensitive spot for me.  :) :)

    (1) When a person is getting a virus, the first thing the immune does is respond with an all out defense, as one British doctor I read years ago described. The heart rate increases, and the immune system immediately turns on all the lights. The British doctor described this in saying that it’s why so often the night people begin a viral infection, they can’t sleep. They are hyperactive because their immune system is. 

    I had to work the night of the debate. When I read the report of Trump’s behavior the following morning, my immediate reaction was, “Oh my gosh, he’s got covid.” And I was right! And the world proceeded to condemn him for his hyperactive performance. 

    What is wrong with people? For heaven’s sake. For a year by then we had been hearing about how horrible this virus was. Poor Trump gets it, and nary a word of sympathy for him. Good grief. This is why every time someone criticizes his lack of good manners, I find myself thinking, “That’s true of everyone these days. There are no good manners anymore.”

    (2) Every incumbent president does poorly at the first debate. That’s because they are in executive mode, not campaign mode. It was true of Obama–why it appeared that Romney did spectacularly well during the first debate but lost his step for the rest of the debates. That’s not what happened. Obama didn’t give it much thought until he was thrown back into campaign mode, which he quickly was by the challenges of the first debate. By the second one, he had found his pace. 

    By the way, the first time I saw this was with GW. Now that I think about it, it was true of his dad too. Everyone watched the first debate, and that’s the night he lost to Clinton. No question about that. 

     

    • #17
  18. Not a Banana Republican Coolidge
    Not a Banana Republican
    @Dbroussa

    MarciN (View Comment):
    (2) Every incumbent president does poorly at the first debate. That’s because they are in executive mode, not campaign mode. It was true of Obama–why it appeared that Romney did spectacularly well during the first debate but lost his step for the rest of the debates. That’s not what happened. Obama didn’t give it much thought until he was thrown back into campaign mode, which he quickly was by the challenges of the first debate. By the second one, he had found his pace. 

    It certainly helped that Candy Crowley inserted herself into the debate on Obama’s side.  

    @susanquinn I would think that the Dems would look at Shapiro the governor of PA or Polis the governor of CO as two of their top candidates.  

    • #18
  19. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Not a Banana Republican (View Comment):
    @susanquinn I would think that the Dems would look at Shapiro the governor of PA or Polis the governor of CO as two of their top candidates.  

    They’re both pretty far left aren’t they? But maybe that’s what the Dems want. I don’t know anymore ….

    • #19
  20. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    I think there’s a part of me that wants, once and for all, for Trump to show that he can debate like a mensch. I know what that means in some ways, but I want the public to know that he can be a decent person. And if he does, I can’t wait to see how the Left manipulates his presentation.

    • #20
  21. Not a Banana Republican Coolidge
    Not a Banana Republican
    @Dbroussa

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Not a Banana Republican (View Comment):
    @ susanquinn I would think that the Dems would look at Shapiro the governor of PA or Polis the governor of CO as two of their top candidates.

    They’re both pretty far left aren’t they? But maybe that’s what the Dems want. I don’t know anymore ….

    They are pretty far left compared to us, and perhaps to the average American, but they are also governing states that are purple-ish and have governed towards the middle in some ways.  Shapiro has been quite popular in PA.  

    Now, does either WANT to be President?  No clue, and right now…that is also a question.

    • #21
  22. Steve Fast Member
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Not a Banana Republican (View Comment):
    It certainly helped that Candy Crowley inserted herself into the debate on Obama’s side.  

    And that Romney was too milquetoast to say, “Candy, honey, you stay out of this. YOU’RE WRONG!”

    • #22
  23. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn: We then have to wonder who would replace him? Some people say that they will bribe Kamala Harris to step down, too. Then what? Would they select Gavin Newsom? I know some say he’s handsome (not my type), but his record in California is atrocious. And I can’t imagine any other Democrat that is anywhere near qualified.

    Gavin Newsom is the governor of California, but so what? Democrats own California. If I were a Democrat, I would want a candidate who has proven that he or she can win a lot of independents. Specifically, I would look at Democratic governors who won despite being in a mostly Republican state. I would also look at Joe Manchin.

    But Joe Manchin may not be electable in a more heavily Democrat state.  The progressive base wouldn’t go for him.

    • #23
  24. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Django (View Comment):
    I’m going out of a limb here and I’ll say that it doesn’t matter who the Demo-rats have as a candidate. No one will vote for Biden; no one will vote for Harris

    Plenty of people voted FOR Biden/Harris, and will do so again.  Their bigger problem might be those who won’t vote for them because, as someone mentioned earlier, they aren’t progressive ENOUGH.

    • #24
  25. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Another question I have is, if Biden shows in the debate that he’s mentally deficient, how does he get removed as CANDIDATE, but still remain PRESIDENT?  It’s like the results of the Hur report, “too decrepit to be prosecuted, but he can still be president.”

    On the other hand, if they DID remove Biden from office, that gets us Kamala.  Unless they skipped her too, and then it’s Mike Johnson?

    • #25
  26. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Steve Fast (View Comment):

    Not a Banana Republican (View Comment):
    It certainly helped that Candy Crowley inserted herself into the debate on Obama’s side.

    And that Romney was too milquetoast to say, “Candy, honey, you stay out of this. YOU’RE WRONG!”

    I doubt that would have helped him, at least by the media portrayal “Romney Attacks Woman On Live TV!”

    • #26
  27. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Another question I have is, if Biden shows in the debate that he’s mentally deficient, how does he get removed as CANDIDATE, but still remain PRESIDENT? It’s like the results of the Hur report, “too decrepit to be prosecuted, but he can still be president.”

    Hur didn’t say that. His justification for not prosecuting was that a jury would perceive Biden that way and not convict. 

    • #27
  28. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    The number of things that are likely to happen is a larger number than the number of things that will actually happen.  

    • #28
  29. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Django (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Another question I have is, if Biden shows in the debate that he’s mentally deficient, how does he get removed as CANDIDATE, but still remain PRESIDENT? It’s like the results of the Hur report, “too decrepit to be prosecuted, but he can still be president.”

    Hur didn’t say that. His justification for not prosecuting was that a jury would perceive Biden that way and not convict.

    Same difference.

    • #29
  30. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Django (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Another question I have is, if Biden shows in the debate that he’s mentally deficient, how does he get removed as CANDIDATE, but still remain PRESIDENT? It’s like the results of the Hur report, “too decrepit to be prosecuted, but he can still be president.”

    Hur didn’t say that. His justification for not prosecuting was that a jury would perceive Biden that way and not convict.

    Same difference.

    No. Perception is not always reality. Now, I suspect that Biden is suffering from dementia, but I can’t prove it. 

    Actually, it’s probably the people around him who are forced to take flack for him who suffer most. 

    • #30
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