More EV Woes

 

Electric vehicles completely replacing gasoline cars would burden our power grid to the breaking point, not to mention the added pollution to generate all that electricity.  This is a huge problem we’re aware of.  However, there’s another problem with EVs that I hadn’t thought about before (no big surprise, since I’ve given up thinking for Lent):

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/laurenfix/electric-vehicles-road-damage-pothole/2024/02/16/id/1153929/

The added weight of EV batteries causes more road damage than gasoline powered cars.  Of course, tractor-trailers are a big culprit too, but replacing all existing gasoline cars for electric would place a tremendous burden on our roads.  We can barely keep or streets and highways pothole free now.  Imagine a future where every road looks like a New Orleans street. (Those of us who went to the NOLA Meetup can attest to the state of their roads).

What if we could find a way to keep the roads repaired?  Well, look at how traffic backs up with road repair today.  Imagine doubling or tripling the number of work zones. You’d have streets and highways clogged more often than not.

I remember watching a video where the host discussed the additional number of fatalities that would occur, given that electric vehicles weigh more.  He suggested the collision between a heavy EV and a light EV would greatly increase the likelihood of a death or serious injury because the added weight is in the battery, not structural components.

Still, small EVs would be great for cities in warm-to-moderate climates where you didn’t have far to drive, and only needed to charge the vehicle at home.

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  1. Headedwest Inactive
    Headedwest
    @Headedwest

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):
    Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles.

    Those are the only numbers in that article. There is no information on how they did their count.  It may be perfectly accurate, but there is no way to tell.

    I say this because it’s hard to imagine why hybrids should be vastly more fire-prone than all-battery vehicles. The most plausible prior assumption would that hybrid rates would be between gas and EV.  Is it all hybrids, or one or two bad eggs? I’d like to know.

    • #31
  2. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):
    Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles.

    Those are the only numbers in that article. There is no information on how they did their count. It may be perfectly accurate, but there is no way to tell.

    I say this because it’s hard to imagine why hybrids should be vastly more fire-prone than all-battery vehicles. The most plausible prior assumption would that hybrid rates would be between gas and EV. Is it all hybrids, or one or two bad eggs? I’d like to know.

    Maybe hybrids get more fires in total because they have EV stuff AND gas stuff?  Either of which could fail?

    But since the EV part of a hybrid is smaller than what’s in a full EV, AND the gas part of a hybrid is smaller than what’s in a full gas car, either type of fire would end up being smaller and less of a problem.

    • #32
  3. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):
    Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles.

    Those are the only numbers in that article. There is no information on how they did their count. It may be perfectly accurate, but there is no way to tell.

    I say this because it’s hard to imagine why hybrids should be vastly more fire-prone than all-battery vehicles. The most plausible prior assumption would that hybrid rates would be between gas and EV. Is it all hybrids, or one or two bad eggs? I’d like to know.

    Maybe hybrids get more fires in total because they have EV stuff AND gas stuff? Either of which could fail?

    But since the EV part of a hybrid is smaller than what’s in a full EV, AND the gas part of a hybrid is smaller than what’s in a full gas car, either type of fire would end up being smaller and less of a problem.

    Less protection for the gas with battery jammed in there instead of under the hood, away from gas tank? I looked at hybrids and chose a bigger v6 model because the hybrid had no room for a spare tire. 

    • #33
  4. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    kedavis (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Road wear is not dependent on vehicle weight. Not directly.

    Road wear depends on the weight / footprint. In other words, how much weight is concentrated.

    A fully loaded semi is 80k pounds, 35k pounds unloaded. Over 18 wheels. So 2-4k pounds per wheel.

    Trucks often use 295/75R22.5 tires. I could not quickly find the contact patch size.

    EV tires are smaller. KBB:

    If you look at range estimates for EVs like the Tesla Model S, you’ll see that the range and efficiency ratings can vary depending on the wheels. According to the EPA data, the Model S Plaid with 19-inch wheels has a 396-mile range, but the same car with 21-inch wheels only has a 348-mile range. … Narrower tires result in better range because less rubber on the road means less energy is required to move the car.

    If anyone here can find the contact patch size, we could actually determine the extent to which an EV rivals an 18-wheeler in terms of impact on roads…

    But the contact patch is more than just the width of the tire. There’s also the pressure in the tire, etc. I expect the width of the tire is going to have more to do with aerodynamics. X pounds of car is going to have a certain amount of contact area at a certain tire pressure. A wider tire will have a narrower/thinner band of contact. But it’s like displacement of a ship, the contact area at a certain tire pressure has to equal the total weight. How could it be otherwise? Unless you want to claim that if you stand on a scale with just one foot, you’ll weigh less than if you have both feet down.

    This was my point: Weight/contact patch represents a good proxy for road wear. Tire pressure changes contact patch size, but should not otherwise make much difference to the road. Contact patch is a function of tire height, width, tire pressure, and weight on the wheel with the tire construction being a key element. So calculating contact patch is not straightforward, but measuring contact patch is trivial. It is something every tire maker knows (but does not advertise). For a normal car, contact patch is often compared to a hand or a postcard. EVs aim for thinner tires under higher pressure, to minimize contact patch – and thus maximize road wear.

    To compare EVs to trucks we need to know weight/contact patch. And then multiply by the number of wheels total (per vehicle, and per roadway).

    If anyone can find comparative contact patches between EVs and trucks, we can apply some actual numbers to what is otherwise a hand-waving exercise.

    • #34
  5. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    Stad: I’ve given up thinking for Lent

    Has Neutral Observer noticed any changes?

    No.  She’s given up observing . . .

    • #35
  6. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Al French (View Comment):

    Road repair is financed mostly with gasoline taxes. If all cars were electric, where would the money come from? I don’t think anyone has figured that out.

    Some states add a property tax surcharge to make up for the lost revenue . . .

    • #36
  7. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    JoelB (View Comment):

    Roadway pavement design takes into consideration the number and type of heavy trucks expected to use the roadway as well as the automotive traffic. Truck traffic is the more important consideration in pavement design. As EVs become a more significant part of the vehicle mix, designs might have to be changed to take heavier automotive traffic into account. It is probably not that significant yet in most places, particularly in rural areas. I don’t doubt that the mix of EV traffic has already become a topic of investigation by state highway departments in regards to future designs. For the present, I expect that the heavy truck mix will still govern design of most roads. The most effective way to avoid potholes is to keep water from getting beneath the road.

    That’s the point.  Roads are designed for heavy trucks, which bounds the effects of lighter cars.  Significantly raising the weight of all cars however would be the equivalent of adding many more trucks on the road.  Besides, we already have empirical data coming in which implies we may need to up the design for heavier vehicles to keep the roads drivable . . .

    • #37
  8. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    Al French (View Comment):

    Road repair is financed mostly with gasoline taxes. If all cars were electric, where would the money come from? I don’t think anyone has figured that out.

    A lot of policy people have said it is time to drop the gasoline tax and replace it with a fee based on the number of miles driven, with the weight of the vehicle factored into the rate. I am not enthused about these ideas. It would be an inconvenience if once a year when you renewed your license plate tabs, you couldn’t do it by mail and had to take your vehicle to a DMV office where someone checked your odometer to calculate your fee. And a lot of people would bark because the gas tax is paid a little at a time, each time you fill up rather than once a year.

    But I would rather than suffer that inconvenience than the more popular proposal which is to require that every vehicle have a tattle-take device that will wirelessly report to your state how many miles you’ve driven, and where. In a way that would be more fair to the states, because someone who does a lot of out-of-state driving would be paying some to each state they’ve driven in rather than their home state getting all the money. But the incredible downside is that the device not only has to keep track of how many miles you’ve driven, but where you have driven. And heck, since we’re having the tattle-tale record where you’ve driven, why not mandate that they record when you have driven there. You know, just in case the state wants to know for some reason.

    Some advocates of this figure this would be a great way to implement congestion pricing. If you are driving down a road when there is little traffic you pay the base rate per mile for a vehicle in your weight class. If you are driving during rush-hour, we’ll make you pay an upcharge for contributing to traffic jams. How long would it take before politicians reckon this would be a way to reward their friends and punish their enemies? If you live in a very Republican state, maybe you get to drive for free if you are driving to church, and you pay triple if you are going to a night club that features topless dancers. If you live in a very Democratic state, drives to a hunting club are triple-taxed while drives to an abortion clinic are tax-free.

    I will never put a tattletale device in my car, nor will I tell the government (or let it check) the number of miles I drive each year.  I say get rid of gas tax and put road construction/maintenance in the general fund, because everyone benefits from the roads, whether they drive or not . . .

    • #38
  9. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):
    It’s not unusual to hear doctors in little video clips saying we need to outlaw guns, or alcohol, or fast cars.

    I heard coffee is now a bad actor . . .

    • #39
  10. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Stad (View Comment):

    JoelB (View Comment):

    Roadway pavement design takes into consideration the number and type of heavy trucks expected to use the roadway as well as the automotive traffic. Truck traffic is the more important consideration in pavement design. As EVs become a more significant part of the vehicle mix, designs might have to be changed to take heavier automotive traffic into account. It is probably not that significant yet in most places, particularly in rural areas. I don’t doubt that the mix of EV traffic has already become a topic of investigation by state highway departments in regards to future designs. For the present, I expect that the heavy truck mix will still govern design of most roads. The most effective way to avoid potholes is to keep water from getting beneath the road.

    That’s the point. Roads are designed for heavy trucks, which bounds the effects of lighter cars. Significantly raising the weight of all cars however would be the equivalent of adding many more trucks on the road. Besides, we already have empirical data coming in which implies we may need to up the design for heavier vehicles to keep the roads drivable . . .

    Without the byproducts of fossil fuels, how will they renew roads as they decay from use? Roads are constructed with either the by products of oil refining or with concrete that includes coal ash.

    • #40
  11. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):
    The power grid problem is easily fixable by controlling when and where you can charge your vehicle.  That is just a bit of software, no big deal. 

    Sorry, but it is a big deal.  Charging at night (the immediate solution) can only go so far.  If we go full electric, the grid will have to be enlarged, and a significant number of additional polluting (unless nuclear) power plants will have to be built.  The problem is not capable of being solved with a bit of software . . .

    • #41
  12. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):
    Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles.

    Those are the only numbers in that article. There is no information on how they did their count. It may be perfectly accurate, but there is no way to tell.

    I say this because it’s hard to imagine why hybrids should be vastly more fire-prone than all-battery vehicles. The most plausible prior assumption would that hybrid rates would be between gas and EV. Is it all hybrids, or one or two bad eggs? I’d like to know.

    I’m sure there is more data to be found by someone wanting to spend a little time looking for it.  I grabbed one of the first articles I found.  If you find a more thorough report, please do share it.

    • #42
  13. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    Even taking electric vehicles out of the equation, cars are a lot heavier than they used to be. I would guess a 2024 Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, or Ford Mustang weighs about 1,000 pounds more than those same models weighed in 1980. They’re nicer, have a lot more luxury and safety features, but are definitely heavier. Then factor in that a lot of (maybe most) people who decades ago used to drive a big car weighing 3500 pounds are now driving a crew-cab pickup or an SUV that weighs 5,000 pounds.

    But aren’t they trying to REDUCE weight to improve mileage, by using aluminum instead of steel etc?

    Yep – and plastic.  Less steel means less protection in a collision . . .

    • #43
  14. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Chowderhead (View Comment):
    One of the first things we do on scene is cut the battery cable.

    I thought some hybrids had a cable cutter triggered by air bag deployment . . .

    • #44
  15. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):
    The power grid problem is easily fixable by controlling when and where you can charge your vehicle. That is just a bit of software, no big deal.

    No big deal, until you realize that controls how far and how long you are permitted to drive.

    The whole Global Warming crisis is a pretense to control everything, so this is a feature to them, not a bug.

    • #45
  16. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Stad (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    Even taking electric vehicles out of the equation, cars are a lot heavier than they used to be. I would guess a 2024 Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, or Ford Mustang weighs about 1,000 pounds more than those same models weighed in 1980. They’re nicer, have a lot more luxury and safety features, but are definitely heavier. Then factor in that a lot of (maybe most) people who decades ago used to drive a big car weighing 3500 pounds are now driving a crew-cab pickup or an SUV that weighs 5,000 pounds.

    But aren’t they trying to REDUCE weight to improve mileage, by using aluminum instead of steel etc?

    Yep – and plastic. Less steel means less protection in a collision . . .

    Plastic – the byproduct of refining fossil fuels.

    • #46
  17. Chowderhead Coolidge
    Chowderhead
    @Podunk

    Stad (View Comment):

    Chowderhead (View Comment):
    One of the first things we do on scene is cut the battery cable.

    I thought some hybrids had a cable cutter triggered by air bag deployment . . .

    It wouldn’t matter we would cut it anyway. I’m glad I retired from that but I can tell you we wouldn’t really care. This cable would probably be cut 90 seconds upon arrival on scene. A normal crew would be four people. One assessing the injured, one cutting power, the driver chocking the truck and setting up cones, and the last guy getting the spreaders.

    I had a Mercedes Sprinter work van that I turned into a mobile office. If you didn’t know and it was in an accident, you would open the hood and cut the battery cable. But no, that wouldn’t be the engine battery. That’s located under the driver’s seat in the most dangerous spot you could pick. The one under the hood is for the power inverter.

    • #47
  18. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    But wait, there’s more!  More bad news about EVs, that is:

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/insurance-likely-to-cost-more-for-ev-owners-report-5588853?ea_src=author_manual&ea_med=related_stories

    To be fair, the story is about EVs in Canada.  However, I’d like to see some US figures, if available . . .

    • #48
  19. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    Even taking electric vehicles out of the equation, cars are a lot heavier than they used to be. I would guess a 2024 Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, or Ford Mustang weighs about 1,000 pounds more than those same models weighed in 1980. They’re nicer, have a lot more luxury and safety features, but are definitely heavier. Then factor in that a lot of (maybe most) people who decades ago used to drive a big car weighing 3500 pounds are now driving a crew-cab pickup or an SUV that weighs 5,000 pounds.

    But aren’t they trying to REDUCE weight to improve mileage, by using aluminum instead of steel etc?

    Yep – and plastic. Less steel means less protection in a collision . . .

    Plastic – the byproduct of refining fossil fuels.

    Plastic – great for use in EVs, unacceptable for use in straws . . .

    • #49
  20. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Chowderhead (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Chowderhead (View Comment):
    One of the first things we do on scene is cut the battery cable.

    I thought some hybrids had a cable cutter triggered by air bag deployment . . .

    It wouldn’t matter we would cut it anyway. I’m glad I retired from that but I can tell you we wouldn’t really care. This cable would probably be cut 90 seconds upon arrival on scene. A normal crew would be four people. One assessing the injured, one cutting power, the driver chocking the truck and setting up cones, and the last guy getting the spreaders.

    I had a Mercedes Sprinter work van that I turned into a mobile office. If you didn’t know and it was in an accident, you would open the hood and cut the battery cable. But no, that wouldn’t be the engine battery. That’s located under the driver’s seat in the most dangerous spot you could pick. The one under the hood is for the power inverter.

    On my hybrid, the starter battery in in the trunk, and the hybrid battery is located under the rear seat, ahead of the gas tank.  I hope there’s a mini-firewall between the two . . . . . .

    • #50
  21. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Stad (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    Even taking electric vehicles out of the equation, cars are a lot heavier than they used to be. I would guess a 2024 Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, or Ford Mustang weighs about 1,000 pounds more than those same models weighed in 1980. They’re nicer, have a lot more luxury and safety features, but are definitely heavier. Then factor in that a lot of (maybe most) people who decades ago used to drive a big car weighing 3500 pounds are now driving a crew-cab pickup or an SUV that weighs 5,000 pounds.

    But aren’t they trying to REDUCE weight to improve mileage, by using aluminum instead of steel etc?

    Yep – and plastic. Less steel means less protection in a collision . . .

    Plastic – the byproduct of refining fossil fuels.

    Plastic – great for use in EVs, unacceptable for use in straws . . .

    EV’s aren’t supposed to be single-use and disposable.  But I laughed just the same.  

    • #51
  22. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Stad (View Comment):

    But wait, there’s more! More bad news about EVs, that is:

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/insurance-likely-to-cost-more-for-ev-owners-report-5588853?ea_src=author_manual&ea_med=related_stories

    To be fair, the story is about EVs in Canada. However, I’d like to see some US figures, if available . . .

    It’s behind a paywall.  But the word “likely” is helpful, anyway.  

    • #52
  23. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Stad (View Comment):
    Yep – and plastic.  Less steel means less protection in a collision . . .

    yes and no.   the best protection is from a car that crumples to reduce the impact of the passengers.  That can be done with more or less steel. 

    • #53
  24. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Friends in the UK report their (dead dinosaur-powered) car insurance has gone up by 2X in the past 5 years. When they queried, they were told it was to cover the risk of additional cost/losses given the higher number of EVs on the road. EVs are a lot more expensive to fix.

    • #54
  25. Headedwest Inactive
    Headedwest
    @Headedwest

    iWe (View Comment):

    Friends in the UK report their (dead dinosaur-powered) car insurance has gone up by 2X in the past 5 years. When they queried, they were told it was to cover the risk of additional cost/losses given the higher number of EVs on the road. EVs are a lot more expensive to fix.

    If you buy (for example) the top power V8 Mustang most insurance companies will charge you more because it’s a higher risk car.

    It makes no sense to charge everybody for EV risk, when you can charge EV owners for the risk.

    • #55
  26. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Headedwest (View Comment):
    If you buy (for example) the top power V8 Mustang most insurance companies will charge you more because it’s a higher risk car.

    It would be if I was driving it.

    • #56
  27. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Reading the original post, I couldn’t help but thinking that all those objections are just silly.

    It won’t matter because you won’t be allowed to have a car.  Car = freedom, and that equation will not be allowed.  People in power will always enjoy what they want.  The less you have, the easier it is for them to keep power.  Your objections are only evidence of why you won’t be allowed to drive.  Take public transport.  It will keep you closer to where you belong.  No venturing out for you.

    • #57
  28. Macho Grande' Coolidge
    Macho Grande'
    @ChrisCampion

    Stad (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):
    The power grid problem is easily fixable by controlling when and where you can charge your vehicle. That is just a bit of software, no big deal.

    Sorry, but it is a big deal. Charging at night (the immediate solution) can only go so far. If we go full electric, the grid will have to be enlarged, and a significant number of additional polluting (unless nuclear) power plants will have to be built. The problem is not capable of being solved with a bit of software . . .

    It’s vastly more complex and scaled – it’s not “easily fixable”.  Generation, transmission, and distribution would all be impacted, bigly.

    It’s a trillion dollar question.  It’s not software.

    • #58
  29. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Friends in the UK report their (dead dinosaur-powered) car insurance has gone up by 2X in the past 5 years. When they queried, they were told it was to cover the risk of additional cost/losses given the higher number of EVs on the road. EVs are a lot more expensive to fix.

    If you buy (for example) the top power V8 Mustang most insurance companies will charge you more because it’s a higher risk car.

    It makes no sense to charge everybody for EV risk, when you can charge EV owners for the risk.

    That’s why the governments may have to require the engine type not to be a factor included in actuarial tables for automotive risk.  They already do it for some other factors.  

    • #59
  30. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Friends in the UK report their (dead dinosaur-powered) car insurance has gone up by 2X in the past 5 years. When they queried, they were told it was to cover the risk of additional cost/losses given the higher number of EVs on the road. EVs are a lot more expensive to fix.

    If you buy (for example) the top power V8 Mustang most insurance companies will charge you more because it’s a higher risk car.

    It makes no sense to charge everybody for EV risk, when you can charge EV owners for the risk.

    That’s why the governments may have to require the engine type not to be a factor included in actuarial tables for automotive risk. They already do it for some other factors.

    But if government doesn’t allow them to vary rates by actual risk, they just pass along the cost to everyone.

    • #60
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