Getting Ahead of Events Before They Go Sideways

 

I found this map on the “Meaning of History” Substack. It may help to understand how all the main players in Africa line up with each other geostrategically – before the poop hits the fan.

 “The United States has 34 known military bases of varying size in Africa — by far the most of any country. Among these is the drone base in Niger — the largest on the planet, from which the US dominates the ISR and air-to-surface strike realm in the entire region.”

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  1. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Thanks

    • #1
  2. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Map showing where the most coups have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa since the 1950s. Number of coups, failed or successful

    • #2
  3. Levi King Member
    Levi King
    @BillNowacki

    Will the strife be inspired by political or religious ideologies?  All may not be what they seem.

    • #3
  4. Rōnin Coolidge
    Rōnin
    @Ronin

    Levi King (View Comment):

    Will the strife be inspired by political or religious ideologies? All may not be what they seem.

    No, it’s more like these lyrics from Casablanca’s “As Time Goes By, (it’s still the same old story, A fight for love and glory, A case of do or die),” and who is going to own the natural resources and control the money.  

    • #4
  5. Steve Fast Coolidge
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Rōnin: Among these is the drone base in Niger — the largest on the planet, from which the US dominates the ISR and air-to-surface strike realm in the entire region.

    Apparently the base has been idle since the Nigerien coup in late July because the junta closed the air space. It’s our key base for the fight against al-Qaida and ISIS and terrorists in Somalia. It’s not clear yet if the junta will allow the US to stay or not.

    • #5
  6. Rōnin Coolidge
    Rōnin
    @Ronin

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):

    Map showing where the most coups have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa since the 1950s. Number of coups, failed or successful

    Call me crazy, but I think I see a connection here.

    • #6
  7. Steve Fast Coolidge
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Rōnin (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):

    Map showing where the most coups have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa since the 1950s. Number of coups, failed or successful

    Call me crazy, but I think I see a connection here.

    The first connection I see is that most (not all) of the modern states were French, not British, colonies. French colonies have had worse post-colonial governance than British ones, on average.

    Second, most of them sit across a geographic boundary, either coastland/savanna for the southern tier of states or Sahel/savanna for the northern tier. The tribes, cultures, and economies are different on each side of the divide, which leads to competition for power and resources.

    • #7
  8. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    What could possibly happen in Africa that we would care about?

    Is there anything worth fighting over in sub-Saharan Africa?  For us, I mean.  The Africans may fight each other, but that’s not my concern.

    Based on a quick check, I think that the top 2 sub-Saharan African oil producing countries, Nigeria and Angola, only produce about 1% of world output each.  

    • #8
  9. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    What could possibly happen in Africa that we would care about?

    Is there anything worth fighting over in sub-Saharan Africa? For us, I mean. The Africans may fight each other, but that’s not my concern.

    Based on a quick check, I think that the top 2 sub-Saharan African oil producing countries, Nigeria and Angola, only produce about 1% of world output each.

    I think having bases there gives us reach for other places. 

    Need these things to have global force projection. 

    • #9
  10. Unsk Member
    Unsk
    @Unsk

    Is there anything worth fighting for?

    I believe Niger is the largest supplier of Uranium outside of Russia. 

    We used to mine our fair share of Uranium until this SecState named Hilary sold  it to Russia for some campaign cash. So I guess kinda sorta that Russia did affect the outcome of an election after all.

    • #10
  11. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    What could possibly happen in Africa that we would care about?

    Is there anything worth fighting over in sub-Saharan Africa? For us, I mean. The Africans may fight each other, but that’s not my concern.

    Based on a quick check, I think that the top 2 sub-Saharan African oil producing countries, Nigeria and Angola, only produce about 1% of world output each.

    I think having bases there gives us reach for other places.

    Need these things to have global force projection.

    I doubt it, for the most part.  It doesn’t seem efficient to project force from Chad or Ghana or Senegal to anywhere important.

    Maybe Djibouti would make sense, if there’s a naval base.  Although possibly not, as we have Diego Garcia, and I don’t think that we like using small, close-in naval forces anyway.  Carriers in the Arabian Sea are more our specialty.   Based on a quick check, it appears that we have 5 air force bases in Saudi Arabia, a better location for projection in the Gulf area than anywhere in Africa.

    • #11
  12. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    What could possibly happen in Africa that we would care about?

    Is there anything worth fighting over in sub-Saharan Africa? For us, I mean. The Africans may fight each other, but that’s not my concern.

    Based on a quick check, I think that the top 2 sub-Saharan African oil producing countries, Nigeria and Angola, only produce about 1% of world output each.

    I think having bases there gives us reach for other places.

    Need these things to have global force projection.

    I doubt it, for the most part. It doesn’t seem efficient to project force from Chad or Ghana or Senegal to anywhere important.

    Sorry, I did not realize you were an expert. I was telling on a General I have talked with, but maybe he knows a lot less than an AZ lawyer.

    Maybe Djibouti would make sense, if there’s a naval base. Although possibly not, as we have Diego Garcia, and I don’t think that we like using small, close-in naval forces anyway. Carriers in the Arabian Sea are more our specialty. Based on a quick check, it appears that we have 5 air force bases in Saudi Arabia, a better location for projection in the Gulf area than anywhere in Africa.

    Well, you sure have it all worked out. Certainly demonstrated you are far more intelligent and knowledgeable than I am. 

     

    • #12
  13. Steve Fast Coolidge
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    What could possibly happen in Africa that we would care about?

    Al Qaeda and ISIS both have strongholds there and have attacked us. Remember those airplanes that flew into the WTC? They are our sworn enemies; so if we let up on them, they will likely do it again.

    The US Navy likes to sail in the Mediterranean and transit the Suez Canal.

    A huge amount of world trade, including oil and gas, flows through the Suez Canal. It is very much in our interest that Somali pirates and terrorists not control that trade or impose costs on it.

    Uranium from Niger was already mentioned; copper from Zambia; cobalt, lithium, and many other minerals from Congo; diamonds and gold from South Africa and Botswana; platinum and palladium from South Africa; oil from Gabon, Libya, and Equatorial Guinea; natural gas from Algeria; and many others. Of course, we could let China and Russia control those mining projects – I’m sure if we asked they would let us buy all we wanted at a reasonable price.

    • #13
  14. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Steve Fast (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    What could possibly happen in Africa that we would care about?

    Al Qaeda and ISIS both have strongholds there and have attacked us. Remember those airplanes that flew into the WTC? They are our sworn enemies; so if we let up on them, they will likely do it again.

    The US Navy likes to sail in the Mediterranean and transit the Suez Canal.

    A huge amount of world trade, including oil and gas, flows through the Suez Canal. It is very much in our interest that Somali pirates and terrorists not control that trade or impose costs on it.

    Uranium from Niger was already mentioned; copper from Zambia; cobalt, lithium, and many other minerals from Congo; diamonds and gold from South Africa and Botswana; platinum and palladium from South Africa; oil from Gabon, Libya, and Equatorial Guinea; natural gas from Algeria; and many others. Of course, we could let China and Russia control those mining projects – I’m sure if we asked they would let us buy all we wanted at a reasonable price.

    Exactly!

    • #14
  15. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    Unsk (View Comment):

    Is there anything worth fighting for?

    I believe Niger is the largest supplier of Uranium outside of Russia.

    We used to mine our fair share of Uranium until this SecState named Hilary sold it to Russia for some campaign cash. So I guess kinda sorta that Russia did affect the outcome of an election after all.

    Not to mention diamonds ………what were the Brits there for in all those old movies? Safaris?

    • #15
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