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Everyone, through growth, learning, interaction, and beliefs, develops a model of the world that represents reality for them. When new information comes in, we process it and filter it through this model, and build expectations or predictions of what we expect to happen next. If the cat jumps on the counter and knocks the glass of water, our model easily predicts the glass falling, causing us to reach out and catch it before it falls.
Some will say that was great reaction time! But what it really was was a byproduct of rapid pattern recognition and reacting to the most likely event before it occurs.
A parent lazily watching their crawling baby on the couch is more alert than appearances let on. A little give under that hand there and a slight wobble of that heavy head and a parent’s leg is immediately there to cradle baby to the ground without one bump or bruise.
The more your model resembles reality, the more accurate your model is at predicting outcomes. This gives rise to fast reflexes, actions that seem to anticipate instead of react. It also helps in making accurate guesses on what to expect in the future… whether near or far. Sometimes, we might call them prophets.
A lot has been said about the 2024 election with prognostication and prediction. I’ve put very little stock into them because most of the people tossing predictions and holding tight to them were wrong in 2016. In 2020, they threw out every single pre-existing predictive model that had worked for decades in swallowing Biden’s #lol81millionvotes election. For me, I simply do not find their models to have any resemblance to reality anymore. And no time has been spent on attempting to re-adjust those models.
Currently, I’m not predicting any outcome. My current model is giving more weight to widespread fraud and the hubris of our elected officials in not taking it seriously skews a lot of my ability to predict. If both parties are involved, then at the end of the day, my preference won’t win. But I sense so much anger and energy against the politicos that is still being channeled into politics (vs. guillotines), that I sometimes wonder if enough people could overwhelm it. Regardless, my model of political reality is broken.
But so are a lot of others on Ricochet. Maybe you know it is broken, maybe not. Maybe some of you have worked harder than I at recalibrating your model after being wrong about 2016 and 2020.
For those of you who have stated who won the debate, I want you to check this out (PDF). If it matches your initial reaction to the debate, then good for you… you have a model that more accurately reflects reality. For those where it is at complete odds, you can check out Susan’s post on political humility.Published in