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I am seeing a growing trend among people at Ricochet and I think this is reflective of certain types of voters. It boils down to this:
“I know too many people who will not vote Trump no matter what. Any other GOP candidate will win, but not Trump”.
This has me thinking. The only way for this to be true is if enough Republicans will vote for any nominee other than Trump and Trump voters will vote for any nominee. In short, the Trump voters are expected to behave like Republican masses have always behaved and be good little boys and girls and line up behind the establishment’s picked candidate, while the establishment Republicans will follow the Never Trump playbook.
There are four outcomes as I see it:
- Trump wins the primary and loses the election; the establishment GOP will breathe a sigh of relief, and go back to ignoring the Trump voters’ needs. Trump does his best to address them in the diminished way he can.
- Trump wins the Primary and wins the election; the establishment GOP works against Trump even harder than they did in his first term. They continue to ignore the needs of the Trump voters and look forward to the day that Trump cannot run again (maybe they impeach him again) and they can “take back their party.”
- Trump loses the Primary and another GOP Candidate wins; the establishment GOP will breathe a sigh of relief, and go back to ignoring the Trump voters’ needs.
- Trump loses the Primary and the Democrat wins; the establishment GOP blames Trump and the Trump voters for the losses and further ignores the Trump voters’ needs.
Note that in no outcome does the GOP establishment ever address the needs of the Trump voters. There is absolutely no outcome where the voters get to feel their “betters” care about them at all. However, in one of these three, the GOP establishment does get back into power, which is what they want more than anything. It is clear that GOP establishment does not really want to stop the Democrats. We know this based on their past actions. Trump got more done to further a conservative agenda than the GOP establishment has ever done. Remember, the GOPe are the people who used Bush I to start repudiating Reagan immediately.
So, what should the Trump voter do? I wonder what would happen if the Trump voters all refused to vote for anyone else. Well, we know what would happen: The GOP candidate would lose. It would make sure that #4 came to pass. It would not address the needs of the Trump voters, but remember, that is off the table. They will never be addressed by the GOPe, and if Trump is not the nominee, they are already assured to be ignored. How can they not be ignored? It is simple: Exert their power.
The Trump voters can explore the option of refusing to support any GOPe candidate. There is no shame in that. National Review itself started the Never Trump movement. Withholding support for Trump or even voting for Hillary Clinton was approved by the many on the conservative side of the aisle. Indeed, the right came up with a scheme to deny the voices of 95% of the voters with Evan McMullin. That is how desperate the GOPe is to get into power just a little bit longer. Reminds me of the dying Federalist Party.
So, I think Trump voters might start to say, “Our guy or the highway.” If Trump wins the primary, he has a chance to win; if he does not, there is no chance. While I personally still plan to vote against the Dems, I am not advocating this at the moment. However, I do think it is an interesting thought. Maybe what has to happen to have an effective opposition party (and the GOP has been in opposition since Reagan, even when in power), the GOP has to be rent asunder.
Food for thought!Published in