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Did Trump Keep His Campaign Promises?
When assessing the quality of a candidate, history can be a useful guide. Not only the history of the particular candidate, but the history of previous successful candidates. So when looking at all of the candidates for the Republican nomination – not just Trump – it is useful to look at whether President Trump kept candidate Trump’s campaign promises, and if not, why not.
But which promises? It is in the nature of candidates for office – especially perhaps underdogs – to promise all sorts of things. And, unlike tightly-scripted campaigns of the ‘pros’, Trump just said so much. So my methodology is this: what did Trump promise in order to gain the Republican nomination? And, in particular, what did his ideological enemies say he promised, at the time? This should keep the focus on what type of Republican Trump promised to be, should avoid hindsight, and should be neutral between pro- and anti-Trump Republicans.
So here is a list of 10 promises Trump made to gain the 2016 nomination, according to Politifact (in July 2016).
1 ‘Build a wall’ — and make Mexico pay for it
I’m going to put this down as a Fail. And it was a fail because President Trump couldn’t get his own party to support him on his signature, and signally popular, policy.
2 Temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States
I’m going to put this down as a Fail. But I’m going to say it was because of unprecedented political action taken by the federal judiciary, backed up at crucial times by typical Roberts’ court pusillanimity. (I know there was ‘learned’ commentary here, as elsewhere, from folks who had never read, let alone written, an Executive Order, that the decisions staying the action for ‘racism’ were perfectly foreseeable. I still think this is nonsense.)
3 ‘Bring manufacturing (jobs) back’
Kept.
4 Impose tariffs on goods made in China and Mexico
Kept.
5 Renegotiate or withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership
Kept.
6 ‘Full repeal of Obamacare’ and replace it with a market-based alternative
Fail. Again because he couldn’t make his own party keep the promises they had been making year after year.
7 Renegotiate the Iran deal
I’m going to put this down as ‘Kept’ in spirit.
8 Leave Social Security as is
Kept.
9 Cut taxes
Kept.
10 ‘Bomb’ and/or ‘take the oil’ from ISIS
Again, I’m going to put this down as ‘Kept’.
(Now, you may think some of these Kept promises were the wrong things to do, and on some I wouldn’t argue. But this is about whether a candidate followed through.)
What can we learn from this list?
- By and large, President Trump kept the campaign promises he made to gain the Republican nomination.
- In one case (the temporary ban on travel from countries with unsatisfactory traveler vetting procedures) he was stymied by the willingness of his ideological enemies to abandon the rule of law, and of the unwillingness of a goodly proportion of his ideological friends to call this out.
- In one case (Obamacare) I think the blame must firmly sit with the Republican Party – Trump and non-Trump – as a whole. They showed that their opposition to the most incoherent medical funding system in the known universe was, at core, more about fundraising than about improving people’s lives.
- In the final case (the Wall), it is incontrovertible that Trump was taken for a ride by Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus, together with a whole host of folks he credulously appointed on the advice of the Republican apparatus.
- Therefore, any candidate wanting to keep promises popular with conservative/grass-roots voters must square the circle of (a) NEVER appointing (or, at least, trusting) anyone with any sort of positive reputation in Washington (or political circles generally), while (b) convincing enough legislators to depart from their normal practices and actually pass legislation that supports such promises.
- Similarly, any CANDIDATE with a political track record (which is usually all of them) should be facing a strong presumption that they are part of the problem, not part of the solution. This presumption can be rebutted, but not by hiring the usual political consultants, appointing the usual campaign chairpeople, and making the usual rhetorical moves.
A cynical part of me (“There’s a non-cynical part of you?”) wonders how much of the ‘I stand with Trump’ rhetoric from candidates is this-year’s ‘repeal and replace Obamacare’: something that plays well with the rubes but need never actually be acted upon.
This is a fair assessment and once again shows that Republicans do not have our backs. Fully half the country does not have representation.
That is a fair assessment. One of the benefits of Trump was revealing the duplicity of the Republican Party as well as the corruption of the Deep State.
Now, if only his 2024 campaign was based on policies other than constantly attacking Ron DeSantis (usually from the left).
“Build the wall” was far more compelling than “Meatball DeSanctus shoulda locked down his state like the far superior governor Cuomo did.”
About the wall funding in the Omnibus Spending Bill in 2018, he said “I looked very seriously at the veto. I was thinking about doing the veto…I will never sign another bill like this again — I’m not going to do it again.” (But he DID do it again within a year.)
The wall was WHY he was elected. He should have held the tax cuts hostage to getting wall funding. He should have held an Oval Office address (oh yeah, he never did those). He should have shown some aggressive leadership. Instead, he got punked by a Republican congress.
Agreed. And I ask again: how would his administration been different had the GOPe not aggressively sought to thwart it by discouraging qualified individuals from working for him, by rejecting the policy planks he was elected on and by enabling and supporting the (known to be ) baseless lawfare staged by the democrats.
Likewise, I blame the Republican Party for handing the House back to the Dems in the 2018 elections. When 40+ GOP House members get their panties in a wad and give up their incumbency because they don’t want to work with Trump, we get what we deserve . . .
Aside: Yes, I know Trump is hard to work with. But in the real world, you have learn how to work with difficult people to get the job done . . .
Although not included in your list, Trump’s SCOTUS appointments may well have saved the Republic, at least for a while. And that was a promise that I don’t think he really cared much about but put forth as a means to win the nomination. Still a lot of win there.
And there I was thinking I was the only one who’d had a jerk for a boss or a buffoon for a colleague. On a project that took 3 years to complete.
Politicians have the same problem all salespeople have everywhere: how to get attention for a product sufficiently that people will buy it.
I’ve never taken Trump seriously on things that I’ve known were controlled by Congress or the states. The two things I knew he could do something about because he singularly would have the authority to do so were (a) cancel the Iran Deal and (b) straighten out our trade agreements. I was ticked off about NAFTA even before it was signed. Needless to say, I was thrilled with the work he did as president, and I even liked the way he handled the pandemic.
That said, it is so much easier to listen to DeSantis. :) :)
I’d be happy with either one if there had been no attempt by the Democrats to bury Trump and the J6 protestors these past three years. Biden’s Red Speech in Philadelphia was the most shocking speech I’ve ever heard in this country. It was so bold and smug in describing about how the Democrats feel about Republicans and in raising the Democrats’ irrational fear of Republicans. It was dangerous.
Absolutely the worst. The lighting even made it look like he was standing in front of a giant Nazi eagle. We’ve never seen such a Hitlerian display in the modern era since. . . well. . . Hitler himself. Everything Democrats accuse conservatives of is stuff they actually are (extremists) and do (murderous and destructive). If that speech wasn’t divisive the word has no meaning.
The other thing to keep in mind about Trump is that there was a lot he did that was underreported, I think. I saw a reference at some point to “Trump’s trade war with China,” and I assumed it was the usual hyperbole in the left’s media. So I looked it up, and I found to my surprise that Trump’s work in straightening out our trade relationship with China was perceived by Xi as a “war.” See this in Wikipedia, but it’s instructive to type into a Google search box “Trump’s trade war against China” to see the myriad results.
If we nominate and elect DeSantis, in many ways he will be inheriting a Trump-fixed country. Which is fine. That’s how life works. But I hope someday someone says thank you to Trump.
Nice list. Trump is not my guy this time around but I grade Trump a bit better on meeting the goals behind the promises.
I think the word you’re looking for is “McCain.”
The post is a fair assessment. The value of Trump’s wide-ranging reveal of the evil in the progressive movement and the duplicity in the Republican Establishment and the traitorous behavior within the federal bureaucracy is what has made me a solid supporter.DeSantis I really liked for his work as governor but his coziness with the traditional Republican campaign types does not look good.
I’ve not been pleased by some of Trump’s statements so far in his campaign.
Pretty close to my position.
What I wonder is when the “Reagan conservatives” denounce “Trumpism,” are they really denouncing the Trump agenda of border security, tough trade stances with China, and rebuilding American manufacturing capability?
Good post. But I thought his best accomplishment was getting the 3 conservative Supreme Court justices on the bench. And that will last for many years.
The time constant of political change is long, but I think Trump got some ideas into circulation that will have beneficial effects over the medium and long terms. For example:
**It is both desirable and possible to do more manufacturing in the US. (As opposed to Obama’s view that it would take a magic wand)
**Much of the media is untrustworthy, and much of government is driven by their own interests
**It is not necessary to give the violent and corrupt Palestinian leadership veto power over affairs in the Middle East (as demonstrated by the Abraham Accords)
He did oversee the creation of a novel wall design; one that is tall, deep, see through, concrete-filled, inexpensive and efficient to manufacture and install. And the installation of hundreds of miles of wall. And working against both the Republicans and Democrats throughout.
And while Mexico didn’t pay for it, they did pay for their military to keep guard at the border.
So I would say, close enough.
Many would argue that a wall isn’t a good solution to the situation in Mexico. And I would agree; maybe the wall is a temporary solution, maybe the wall makes a statement about borders, but I don’t think it’s ideal. Better to have a friendly Canadian border than a hostile Mexico border. But that’s not currently possible.
And if I were doing it, I would make the wall design more representative of the nation – a giant white picket fence.
This raises the question of whether keeping one’s promises is on a higher level of “good” than accomplishments that one did not “promise” ahead of time.
Did Trump promise to reject the Paris Accords? Relocate our Embassy to Jerusalem? Broker a Bahrain-Israel deal? I actually do not recall. But it seems to me that there is an implied promise, at least, to leave the country better off than one found it, and that this large promise was kept.
Hear, hear!
Trump allowed the national debt to go up significantly during his presidency. Didn’t Trump say that he would balance the budget?
Fail.
His promise to leave Social Security alone is actually a promise I think he never should have made because Social Security, along with Medicare and Medicaid, is bankrupting the United States of America.
I voted for Reagan in 1984. I voted for George H W Bush in 1988 and 1992. I voted for Bob Dole in 1996. I voted for George W Bush in 2000 and 2004. I didn’t vote for either McCain or Obama in 2008. I did vote for Romney in 2012. I didn’t vote for either Trump, Hillary Clinton or Biden in 2016 or 2020 and I won’t be voting for either Trump or Biden in 2024.
Good job, genferei. I approve!
Reagan, Bush I and Bush II allowed the national debt to go up significantly during their presidencies. (The only president with a budget surplus in recent memory was Clinton. Not that we do actual ‘budgets’ these days.)
Everyone promises to balance the budget – in 10 years’ time, when all their other policies leading to hockey-stick growth in tax revenue cut in.
I’m not saying this isn’t important. I’m just saying the importance with which this was treated by Trump is of a piece with the actual actions of his Republican predecessors. This promise also falls outside the methodology of this article: if everyone makes the same magical-thinking budget-balancing promise, then that can’t be a reason primary voters chose one candidate over another.
Yes.
This has actually been US law since 1995.
Kind of, yes. And was roundly mocked for it (the following quote is from Richard Sokolsky and Aaron Miller in December 2016, not Hoyacon):
Hoyacon (View Comment):
True, that.
Listing those campaign promises, points to a problem with all presidential candidates. They make promises they don’t have the power to keep if they actually win the office.
Build a wall? It still requires the cooperation of Congress. When these type of promises are made, no one challenges the candidate of making a false promise in the first place.
I conider it dishonest. It starts from there.
Is it a false promise, or an incomplete one? That is, until we have succeeded in reducing the size and scope of the Federal Government such that presidential candidates can compete purely on which wars they won’t start and which legislation they will veto, we do want presidents to lead on that reduction (or, at least, not get in the way). Obviously a president is not (supposed to be) the legislature. So we should, I agree, ask the question: How?
You’re going to build a wall? How? “Well, it’s my signature policy; I’ll veto any budget that doesn’t include funding for the wall; I’ll personally call each incumbent and candidate for legislative office prior to the election, ask for their pledge to support me, and publish the answers; etc…”
I wouldn’t expect the press to do this work, of course: journalists as a race are intellectually lazy, and it’s just so much easier to write horse-race stories and publish oppo research supplied by the campaigns than actually analyze stuff.
I dont think of these things as promises and I don’t hear them in a vacuum where I have no knowledge of what it would take to achieve them. Instead these are goals or statements of priority. Were sincere attempts made to achieve the goals? Or was it all just insincere talk to trick us rubes into voting?
Nope.
The gross national debt went up year-over-year every year during the Clinton administration, although he came very close one year.
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/historical-debt-outstanding/historical-debt-outstanding
We haven’t had a surplus since the Eisenhower administration.
It takes more than one person to do so much and he was up against investigation, impeachment and everything else you can think of. The country and the world was better off with him in charge, but they won’t let him win again.