Doomed Plane Was a System Failure

 

First of all, prayers to the families of the victims in that terrible business jet crash yesterday. It obviously wasn’t a terrorist attack…but it could have been a successful one.

All the news outlets are cheering the wonderful Air Force response and praising the changes we’ve made and all we have learned after 9/11. I see it as a dismal failure.

What if it wasn’t autopilot General Holt? You are supposed to be the expert in “What If.”

An Air Force fighter-jet response deserves “kudos” for its quick scramble to intercede when a Cessna plane violated airspace around Washington, D.C., retired Air Force Brigadier Gen. Blaine Holt said Monday.

Appearing on Newsmax‘s “Wake Up America,” Holt described the Sunday incident as eerily recalling the attacks in New York and Washington D.C., on Sept. 11, 2001.

“This thing got up to where it was supposed to go in New York — and then started to 180 degree turn,” Holt said. “That sounds like the autopilot was doing that. … It’s just going to go back to where it came from.”

We have spent hundreds of billions of dollars and given up massive amounts of personal freedom for a higher level of security for the homeland. After yesterday it is very clear that we are hardly any safer than pre-9/11 but we are poorer and more inclusive.

There are two major circles around DC. The first is a no-fly zone requiring special permits and detailed flight plans filed. Ronald Reagan Airport is within this zone. Inside that zone, there is another. I will call it the kill zone, but I’m sure there is a colorful name for it. If a plane makes it to that inner zone, then you were able to bypass all security measures and failed your mission.

Once this plane made a U-turn over New York and made a B-line for DC, those F-16s on the tarmac, with engines running 24/7, should already have been preparing to intercept. If you heard the sonic boom over DC, they either punched it to catch up before DC and escorted them over the White House, or they punched it after they flew over and escorted them until it crashed. Either way is unacceptable and an utter failure.

Computers can track every flight in the air and assign a threat probability using trajectory, distance, altitude, unusual flight pattern, and flight plan deviations. It’s not that hard, guys. Am I the only one? Maybe, but this is my defense.

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  1. Misthiocracy has never Member
    Misthiocracy has never
    @Misthiocracy

    IMHO, we I still have too few details about this incident, and the response to it, to judge anybody’s actions.

    IMHO.

    • #1
  2. Chowderhead Coolidge
    Chowderhead
    @Podunk

    Misthiocracy has never (View Comment):

    IMHO, we still have too few details about this incident, and the response to it, to judge anybody’s actions.

    IMHO.

    What can be said that explains why we didn’t shoot down an unauthorized plane over the capital?

    • #2
  3. No Caesar Thatcher
    No Caesar
    @NoCaesar

    I didn’t realize that the plane had gotten that close to its destination before reversing.  That does support your argument.   

    I heard a hypothesis that there was a pressurization failure and the occupants all suffocated.  Why would that happen if the plane was nearing approach?  Shouldn’t it be low enough for atmospheric oxygen?  If it happened at higher altitude and the autopilot took over, why did it reverse direction?  Does autopilot have a return to take-off if no response bias?

    • #3
  4. JoelB Member
    JoelB
    @JoelB

    Chowderhead: We have spent hundreds of billions of dollars and given up massive amounts of personal freedom for a higher level of security for the homeland. After yesterday it is very clear that we are hardly any safer than pre 911 but we are poorer and more inclusive.  

    Yes. This.

    • #4
  5. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    If they intercepted before DC and assessed incapacitated pilot and autopilot RTB, then the right decision was to not shoot it down before busting DC airspace.

    If they only caught up to it later and then shot it down outbound from DC because of a PA-conscious and jittery C2, that was the wrong answer.

    I haven’t seen the altitude profile, just read reports that it lost an alarming amount of altitude in one minute.  Not sure where that happened in relation to the second U-turn.  They say (last I saw) that they didn’t shoot it down.

    I’ll have more to say after seeing more data.

    • #5
  6. Chowderhead Coolidge
    Chowderhead
    @Podunk

    No Caesar (View Comment):

    I didn’t realize that the plane had gotten that close to its destination before reversing. That does support your argument.

    I heard a hypothesis that there was a pressurization failure and the occupants all suffocated. Why would that happen if the plane was nearing approach? Shouldn’t it be low enough for atmospheric oxygen? If it happened at higher altitude and the autopilot took over, why did it reverse direction? Does autopilot have a return to take-off if no response bias?

    Whatever happened on the plane it does sound like a tragedy. One expert today said that if you leave a plane without a waypoint it will return to it’s original point of departure. If you follow the flight path further on the map that appears to be the case. 

     

    • #6
  7. Bunsen Coolidge
    Bunsen
    @Bunsen

    Chowderhead (View Comment):

    Misthiocracy has never (View Comment):

    IMHO, we still have too few details about this incident, and the response to it, to judge anybody’s actions.

    IMHO.

    What can be said that explains why we didn’t shoot down an unauthorized plane over the capital?

    Not trying to be flip but if we won’t shoot down a Chinese spy balloon over spacious Montana “because we were worried about people on the ground getting injured”, why would we even think about shooting down a plane over populous DC metro area?  Goes back to your failed “increased security”.  I would add that if I can walk through Indy 500 and Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    • #7
  8. Chowderhead Coolidge
    Chowderhead
    @Podunk

    It’s a touchy subject for me. I was supposed to be on UA175. My boss ordered me to go to CA and I refused. Back then I only flew on Tuesday mornings to beat the rush. I told them they would have to fire me. I find it offensive that we are still not doing what needs to be done. Maybe these people that died yesterday in that freaky set of events is a wakeup call. Their deaths could have had a purpose.  

    • #8
  9. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    It could be that the autopilot was programmed with its last waypoint at the destination,  but if the pilot was incapacitated and incapable of taking over and landing, the autopilot turned around and headed for the origin point.

    • #9
  10. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    Here’s Ward Carroll, good guy.  He assesses pilot incapacitation (likely due to hypoxia).  My notes below.

    AUTOPILOT

    If you watch the reconstruction (from data) that plays in his video, the plane does successfully overfly Islip NY, but *never descends*, and so the autopilot would have been rightly confused.

    Autopilots like you find in low-to-mid-grade civilian aircraft like this aging Cessna jet will have a number of limited modes, like heading maintain, altitude maintain, or even (as this one must have) waypoint navigation.

    Autopilots are generally not sophisticated things.  They could be “better,” but this would mean handing over more control, which is generally frowned upon because reality is generally quite sophisticated.  (I have beef with AirBus about their “pilots manage the automation” philosophy of how to run a cockpit, which keeps cropping up in operator confusion disasters like Air France 447.)  So simple autopilots are the rule, taking some of the monotony out of flying, and in high-end civilian aircraft (airliners and luxury jets) reducing crew workload during critical phases of flight.

    INTERCEPT

    NORAD scrambled two sets of 2x alert F-16s, one pair from New Jersey (callsign “Cosmic”) and one pair from Edwards Andrews AFB in Maryland (“Brave”).

    The Cessna overflew DC at 1505 local — Brave did not intercept until 1520.  Cosmic, which was even further in trail, requested and received permission to push supersonic to get to the action.  Hence Boom.  I’ll see if I can find more about timing of the booms and implications for Cosmic on-scene time.  Cosmic also requested tanker support and was told that there was none available.  Hmmmmmm.

    This is an utter failure, as @Chowderhead says.  A plane deviating from its flight plan went absolutely straight at DC for hundreds of miles and was only intercepted fifteen minutes *after* crossing over DC. Overflights of DC are common for aircraft at high altitude with a valid flight plan: there’s a regular air “corridor” that goes right over the top.  Here’s a screenshot I just took showing higher-end bizjet going right across DC, right through the heart of the FRZ (“Flight Restricted Zone” in red on @Chowderhead’s graphic in the post).  I just fired up the site and looked for the first likely plane who just crossed DC.  Happens all the time.

    What does NOT happen all the time is aircraft with no flight plan, non-responsive to radio calls, traipsing across the Sacred Land of Nancy Pelosi.  My guess is that the chain of phone calls, however short, was only the front side of a bunch of “asking the boss” at each step.  No doubt NORAD and the USAF will be faster to respond when somebody complains about being misgendered.

    CONCLUSION

    Everything including the “spiral dive” at the end is consistent with hypoxia and eventual fuel starvation.

    And somebody between NORAD and the USAF has some ‘splainin’ to do.

    • #10
  11. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    Bunsen (View Comment):

    Chowderhead (View Comment):

    Misthiocracy has never (View Comment):

    IMHO, we still have too few details about this incident, and the response to it, to judge anybody’s actions.

    IMHO.

    What can be said that explains why we didn’t shoot down an unauthorized plane over the capital?

    Not trying to be flip but if we won’t shoot down a Chinese spy balloon over spacious Montana “because we were worried about people on the ground getting injured”, why would we even think about shooting down a plane over populous DC metro area? Goes back to your failed “increased security”. I would add that if I can walk through Indy 500 and Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    Because the governments can not lock you down by restricting your ability to go to Wrigley or Indy.  Wait until the checkpoints go up on the Interstates.

    • #11
  12. Steve Fast Member
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    BDB (View Comment):
    This is an utter failure, as @Chowderhead says.  A plane deviating from its flight plan went absolutely straight at DC for hundreds of miles and was only intercepted fifteen minutes *after* crossing over DC.

    There have been far too many political promotions in the armed forces. How else do you explain General Mildred Milley as Chairman of the JCS and trans-everything and women serving in combat and plug-in electric tanks and fueling ships with bio-diesel and climate change being our #1 security priority?

    It’s gonna get us blown up someday soon. Thankfully our chief opponents, China and Russia, also have very political militaries, but it’s very risky to rely on their political screwups to save our bacon.

    • #12
  13. Chowderhead Coolidge
    Chowderhead
    @Podunk

    BDB (View Comment):
    The Cessna overflew DC at 1505 local — Brave did not intercept until 1520.  Cosmic, which was even further in trail, requested and received permission to push supersonic to get to the action.  Hence Boom.

    These jets are always ready to go… but didn’t.

    BDB (View Comment):
    And somebody between NORAD and the USAF has some ‘splainin’ to do.

    Yup

     

    • #13
  14. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Dayum. I SAW THIS PLANE.

    I was walking back from #5’s High School Graduation (being Shabbos, a long walk), and my kids looked up, said “what kind of plane is that, Daddy?” 

    It was pretty low, not moving particularly fast. I said, “It looks like a Citation to me.” And I thought nothing more of it until I saw this graphic which matched the timeline.

    Freaky.

    • #14
  15. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    iWe (View Comment):

    Dayum. I SAW THIS PLANE.

    I was walking back from #5’s High School Graduation (being Shabbos, a long walk), and my kids looked up, said “what kind of plane is that, Daddy?”

    It was pretty low, not moving particularly fast. I said, “It looks like a Citation to me.” And I thought nothing more of it until I saw this graphic which matched the timeline.

    Freaky.

    Which direction did you see?  If it was fairly low, either the likely asphyxiation hadn’t happened yet, or it already had and the lower altitude was too late.

    • #15
  16. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    kedavis (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Dayum. I SAW THIS PLANE.

    I was walking back from #5’s High School Graduation (being Shabbos, a long walk), and my kids looked up, said “what kind of plane is that, Daddy?”

    It was pretty low, not moving particularly fast. I said, “It looks like a Citation to me.” And I thought nothing more of it until I saw this graphic which matched the timeline.

    Freaky.

    Which direction did you see? If it was fairly low, either the likely asphyxiation hadn’t happened yet, or it already had and the lower altitude was too late.

    CORRECTION. My kids checked the timing and direction of travel – we saw it on its way North. 

    • #16
  17. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    iWe (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Dayum. I SAW THIS PLANE.

    I was walking back from #5’s High School Graduation (being Shabbos, a long walk), and my kids looked up, said “what kind of plane is that, Daddy?”

    It was pretty low, not moving particularly fast. I said, “It looks like a Citation to me.” And I thought nothing more of it until I saw this graphic which matched the timeline.

    Freaky.

    Which direction did you see? If it was fairly low, either the likely asphyxiation hadn’t happened yet, or it already had and the lower altitude was too late.

    CORRECTION. My kids checked the timing and direction of travel – we saw it on its way North.

    There have been around 8,000 Cessna Citations built. One flew over me today.

    • #17
  18. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    iWe (View Comment):

    Dayum. I SAW THIS PLANE.

    I was walking back from #5’s High School Graduation (being Shabbos, a long walk), and my kids looked up, said “what kind of plane is that, Daddy?”

    It was pretty low, not moving particularly fast. I said, “It looks like a Citation to me.” And I thought nothing more of it until I saw this graphic which matched the timeline.

    Freaky.

    You were in central Virginia?

    • #18
  19. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    iWe (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Dayum. I SAW THIS PLANE.

    I was walking back from #5’s High School Graduation (being Shabbos, a long walk), and my kids looked up, said “what kind of plane is that, Daddy?”

    It was pretty low, not moving particularly fast. I said, “It looks like a Citation to me.” And I thought nothing more of it until I saw this graphic which matched the timeline.

    Freaky.

    Which direction did you see? If it was fairly low, either the likely asphyxiation hadn’t happened yet, or it already had and the lower altitude was too late.

    CORRECTION. My kids checked the timing and direction of travel – we saw it on its way North.

    The plane was at 34000 feet unless you were in Tennessee or central Virginia.  If you had seen it near the end, you would have known something was wrong.  

    • #19
  20. Old Bathos Member
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    A few years ago, I took some flying lessons at a small airfield in Montgomery County. The rules governing where and what altitude one can fly around DC are pretty daunting.  Eventually, I decided it was safer for the folks on the ground not to have a drift old guy flying a a plane and quit the lessons.

    The option to shoot down an offending craft is compounded by the fact that every inch of that area is densely populated. Kill innocents on the ground just to protect Joe Biden?

    • #20
  21. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Bunsen (View Comment):
    I would add that if I can walk through . . . Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    Because no one would hijack the Cubs . . .

    • #21
  22. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bunsen (View Comment):
    I would add that if I can walk through . . . Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    Because no one would hijack the Cubs . . .

    I wish someone would hijack the bullpen.

    • #22
  23. Bunsen Coolidge
    Bunsen
    @Bunsen

    Percival (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bunsen (View Comment):
    I would add that if I can walk through . . . Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    Because no one would hijack the Cubs . . .

    I wish someone would hijack the bullpen.

    I wish they would blow up the bullpen but my thoughts were more along blow up the stands.  

    • #23
  24. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Bunsen (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bunsen (View Comment):
    I would add that if I can walk through . . . Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    Because no one would hijack the Cubs . . .

    I wish someone would hijack the bullpen.

    I wish they would blow up the bullpen but my thoughts were more along blow up the stands.

    • #24
  25. Bunsen Coolidge
    Bunsen
    @Bunsen

    Percival (View Comment):

    Bunsen (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bunsen (View Comment):
    I would add that if I can walk through . . . Wrigley Field security without taking anything out of my pockets or shoes off, why can’t we do that in airports?

    Because no one would hijack the Cubs . . .

    I wish someone would hijack the bullpen.

    I wish they would blow up the bullpen but my thoughts were more along blow up the stands.

    This is a true statement!

    • #25
  26. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    Blancolirio (Juan Brown) on this crash:

    Adds nothing to Ward Carroll.

    • #26
  27. Chowderhead Coolidge
    Chowderhead
    @Podunk

    BDB (View Comment):

    Blancolirio (Juan Brown) on this crash:

    Adds nothing to Ward Carroll.

    Wow this is far worse than I suspected. Juan Brown made the point that the plane had trouble before entering ISP airspace. Then I realized they had a plan to land there and didn’t. ISP didn’t tell anyone they turned and made a B-line for DC!

    … as this post fades to the dust ball behind the refrigerator. I’m going to watch more of him. 

     

    • #27
  28. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Chowderhead (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Blancolirio (Juan Brown) on this crash:

    Adds nothing to Ward Carroll.

    Wow this is far worse than I suspected. Juan Brown made the point that the plane had trouble before entering ISP airspace. Then I realized they had a plan to land there and didn’t. ISP didn’t tell anyone they turned and made a B-line for DC!

    … as this post fades to the dust ball behind the refrigerator. I’m going to watch more of him.

     

    But it was also a straight line back towards their original departure point.

    • #28
  29. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Chowderhead (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Blancolirio (Juan Brown) on this crash:

    Adds nothing to Ward Carroll.

    Wow this is far worse than I suspected. Juan Brown made the point that the plane had trouble before entering ISP airspace. Then I realized they had a plan to land there and didn’t. ISP didn’t tell anyone they turned and made a B-line for DC!

    … as this post fades to the dust ball behind the refrigerator. I’m going to watch more of him.

     

    But it was also a straight line back towards their original departure point.

    Right.  I think Juan is wrong about the plane trying to line up.  I *do* think that the incapacitation did happen long before NY or else the pilot would have initiated a descent.

    • #29
  30. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Chowderhead (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Blancolirio (Juan Brown) on this crash:

    Adds nothing to Ward Carroll.

    Wow this is far worse than I suspected. Juan Brown made the point that the plane had trouble before entering ISP airspace. Then I realized they had a plan to land there and didn’t. ISP didn’t tell anyone they turned and made a B-line for DC!

    … as this post fades to the dust ball behind the refrigerator. I’m going to watch more of him.

    Oh, and it’s bee-line – or more properly, beeline – not B-line.  As in, the behavior of bees.

    • #30
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