Called It!

 

I have been predicting, for most of the past year, that Russia, with too heavy a commitment to the Ukrainian war, will start to split apart as regions separate from Moscow.

Georgia is tumbling first. 

“The law is Russian as we all know… we don’t want to be a part of the ex-Soviet Union, we want to be a part of the European Union, we want to be pro-West,” one protester told Reuters news agency.

If this follows through to its conclusion, we can expect a cascade of similar protests, movements, and separations. Russia lacks the manpower and resources to hold things together. As and when other regions in Moscow’s sphere of influence get it in their heads that there is nothing Russia can do to keep them in the Mother Ship, they will follow suit.

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  1. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):
    Russia has lots of available assets in the making. They have just increased their military by another million.

    Russia’s population has been decling for quite a while. As for armies, they are scraping the bottom of every barrel they can find. These are not elite troops, but conscripts not so eager to die. Yes, I’m familiar with the famous “quantity has a quality all its own” quote, but the quantity still needs a basic level of quality. The situation is going to get more intense the next few months . . .

    Pictures of German tanks arriving in Ukraine to attack Russians will be true, propaganda and motivating to Russians.

    As for falling populations, try Ukraine.

    And it is already intense. There are two cauldrons forming at the moment. The Ukrainians are throwing in everything to counterattack but the weather isn’t cooperating. Nor the Russians.

    Add to this that the Ukrainians are losing and using equipment and munitions faster than Nato can produce it, and it suggests when the Ukraine and Nato will be through.

    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    • #121
  2. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Estonian Rainer Saks explains what’s at stake in Georgia. This is from Estonian blogger Artur Rehi, who I follow on YouTube.

     

    Estonian military blogger and former head of reconnaissance of Estonia, Rainer Saks writes in his today’s Ukrainian war blog:

    March 9th, 2023

    The most significant events of the past few days may have taken place in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Somewhat unexpectedly, the parliament passed a law on so-called foreign agents. Such a law can only originate from Russia’s political culture, and there is no doubt that it is based on or at least coordinated with an initiative from Russia. In the bigger picture, the processing of such a law in parliament means only one thing – Russia has begun to increase its control over Georgia’s internal political process. It is not surprising that some of the biggest protests in recent years have erupted in response. It is possible that the authorities consider the situation in the capital too dangerous, as they have already used significant force to disperse the protests. Even the Georgian president on a foreign visit has expressed his opposition to the law. It is clear that the enforcement of such a law would put an end to any movement of Georgia towards Europe. It is unlikely that the protests can simply be ended by using force. The current internal political crisis will show in the coming weeks whether the Georgian people can block Russia’s growing influence in the country or whether the majority will be indifferent to it. Russia is thus currently investing in destabilizing the internal politics of both Moldova and Georgia in order to play an escalation and weaken Europe’s position.

    Forgive my ignorance here, but are the satellite countries like Georgia and Moldova etc. currently part of NATO?

    • #122
  3. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Estonian Rainer Saks explains what’s at stake in Georgia. This is from Estonian blogger Artur Rehi, who I follow on YouTube.

     

    Estonian military blogger and former head of reconnaissance of Estonia, Rainer Saks writes in his today’s Ukrainian war blog:

    March 9th, 2023

    The most significant events of the past few days may have taken place in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Somewhat unexpectedly, the parliament passed a law on so-called foreign agents. Such a law can only originate from Russia’s political culture, and there is no doubt that it is based on or at least coordinated with an initiative from Russia. In the bigger picture, the processing of such a law in parliament means only one thing – Russia has begun to increase its control over Georgia’s internal political process. It is not surprising that some of the biggest protests in recent years have erupted in response. It is possible that the authorities consider the situation in the capital too dangerous, as they have already used significant force to disperse the protests. Even the Georgian president on a foreign visit has expressed his opposition to the law. It is clear that the enforcement of such a law would put an end to any movement of Georgia towards Europe. It is unlikely that the protests can simply be ended by using force. The current internal political crisis will show in the coming weeks whether the Georgian people can block Russia’s growing influence in the country or whether the majority will be indifferent to it. Russia is thus currently investing in destabilizing the internal politics of both Moldova and Georgia in order to play an escalation and weaken Europe’s position.

    Forgive my ignorance here, but are the satellite countries like Georgia and Moldova etc. currently part of NATO?

    No.   I wouldn’t call them satellite countries, though.  They’re trying to keep from becoming satellite countries. 

    • #123
  4. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    Forgive my ignorance here, but are the satellite countries like Georgia and Moldova etc. currently part of NATO?

    Nothing wrong with asking.  No, Georgia and Moldova are not in NATO.  However, many other former Soviet Satellite Countries are, for instance, Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.  Georgia is trying to gain entry to both NATO and the European Union.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO

    • #124
  5. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    • #125
  6. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    • #126
  7. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported.  That was the genius of the man.

    • #127
  8. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Hang On (View Comment):
    As for falling populations, try Ukraine.

    So true.  This is what I think Putin is counting on . . .

    • #128
  9. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported. That was the genius of the man.

    Did you just call Trump a “genius?”  Is the Australian heat getting to you?

    • #129
  10. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported. That was the genius of the man.

    Did you just call Trump a “genius?” Is the Australian heat getting to you?

    Must be.  Actually I think he really is when it comes to ruling the media cycle.

    Prompted by @heavywater ‘s post on JK Rowling being interviewed by Megan Phelps-Roper, I read Megan’s biographical ‘Unfollowed’.  Westboro Baptist interacted with the media the same way – and to some degree with similar motivation.

    • #130
  11. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported. That was the genius of the man.

    Did you just call Trump a “genius?” Is the Australian heat getting to you?

    Compared to Joe Biden and the rest of the terrorist cabal at the State Department, Trump is a genius. Only these buffoons could isolate the United States the way these idiots are. Only these idiots would have nothing to offer any other country other than threats and death. 

    • #131
  12. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    Im sure someone else has pointed this out, but Georgia has been effectively an independent country since 1991.

    So you have called absolutely nothing.  Its not a region breaking away.   It broke away over 30 years ago.  Try to keep up.

     

    • #132
  13. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported. That was the genius of the man.

    Did you just call Trump a “genius?” Is the Australian heat getting to you?

    Compared to Joe Biden and the rest of the terrorist cabal at the State Department, Trump is a genius. Only these buffoons could isolate the United States the way these idiots are. Only these idiots would have nothing to offer any other country other than threats and death.

    It was a joke, Dude.  Zafar is no fan of Trump.

    • #133
  14. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported. That was the genius of the man.

    Did you just call Trump a “genius?” Is the Australian heat getting to you?

    Compared to Joe Biden and the rest of the terrorist cabal at the State Department, Trump is a genius. Only these buffoons could isolate the United States the way these idiots are. Only these idiots would have nothing to offer any other country other than threats and death.

    It was a joke, Dude. Zafar is no fan of Trump.

    No, I was serious.  He was excellent at managing the news cycle.  How much free publicity did he get out of the media? How profoundly did he manipulate his supporters?  Give him his due, I say.

    • #134
  15. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    You’ve been predicting and hoping for the imminent fall of Ukraine for over a year now, but none of it has even come close to materializing.

    Hoping for – absolutely not. I have been hoping for this to be negotiated, but the warmongering neocons in the US State Dept will have nothing to do with it. You seem to be on their side.

    Predicting – absolutely.

    Coming close to materializing happens by the day.

    I don’t think we would even be having this discussion if Donald J. Trump were in the White House.

    No, we’d be talking about some nonsense Amarosa had seen or reported. That was the genius of the man.

    Did you just call Trump a “genius?” Is the Australian heat getting to you?

    Compared to Joe Biden and the rest of the terrorist cabal at the State Department, Trump is a genius. Only these buffoons could isolate the United States the way these idiots are. Only these idiots would have nothing to offer any other country other than threats and death.

    It was a joke, Dude. Zafar is no fan of Trump.

    No, I was serious. He was excellent at managing the news cycle. How much free publicity did he get out of the media? How profoundly did he manipulate his supporters? Give him his due, I say.

    Yes, but that’s just because when one doesn’t have a war to prosecute or something else just as consuming of attention and resources, one must have the Amarosa nonsense.

    • #135
  16. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):
    Yes, but that’s just because when one doesn’t have a war to prosecute or something else just as consuming of attention and resources, one must have the Amarosa nonsense.

    But there was a war being prosecuted in Afghanistan.  And another proxy one in Syria.  Not to mention other grown up issues like the national debt.  And yet.

    I don’t think it’s that different today.  Both parties prefer culture wars to the other option.

    • #136
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