Called It!

 

I have been predicting, for most of the past year, that Russia, with too heavy a commitment to the Ukrainian war, will start to split apart as regions separate from Moscow.

Georgia is tumbling first. 

“The law is Russian as we all know… we don’t want to be a part of the ex-Soviet Union, we want to be a part of the European Union, we want to be pro-West,” one protester told Reuters news agency.

If this follows through to its conclusion, we can expect a cascade of similar protests, movements, and separations. Russia lacks the manpower and resources to hold things together. As and when other regions in Moscow’s sphere of influence get it in their heads that there is nothing Russia can do to keep them in the Mother Ship, they will follow suit.

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  1. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    State run media will not adequately cover their case, thus the protests. 

    By the standards of that general part of the world, there’s nothing exceptional about the media landscape in Georgia. Its 2022 Press Freedom Index (59.3) is higher than Ukraine’s (55.6) and about the same as Hungary’s (59.8), for example.

    And how does Reporters sans frontières feel about the New York Times and the Washington Post sharing a Pulitzer for their coverage of Russian collusion? And why would anyone who isn’t a prog care?

    Percival (View Comment):
    Seeing as how Ivanishvili is bought and paid for already, the Russians see other viewpoints as contrary to their plans for Georgia.

    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.
     

    Then why the threats? Joachim von Ribbentrop Sergei Lavrov says we’re provoking it; that it is a coup attempt and clearly the CIA is behind it.

    Sergei needs to face facts. The people who loathe the Russians most are the ones that know them best.

    • #91
  2. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Percival (View Comment):
    Then why the threats? …

    What threats did Russia make in relation to this situation in Georgia? Care to share?

    When it comes to threats, they’ve come from … the EU, along the lines of “Nice EU aspirations you’ve got there, Georgia. It’d be a shame if, as a result of passing this law, something happened to them.”

    Percival (View Comment):
    Sergei Lavrov says we’re provoking it …

    So have I and others here and elsewhere. Does that mean that we have anything to do with it?

    • #92
  3. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    So, without passage of this law, what’s to stop Russia from funding Georgian NGOs to the tune of >20%? From becoming a foreign actor in Georgia?

    And, really, for these satellite countries of the EU, is it such a great thing to be absorbed by the globalists in Brussels? It seems to me Germany won the world wars without having to fire a shot. Britain had a narrow escape, but there are still plenty of Brits complaining about recovering their national sovereignty (we watch Clarkson’s Farm and he’s a persistent complainer about Brexit). Maybe the protestors in Georgia aren’t so different. 

    • #93
  4. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    Then why the threats? …

    What threats did Russia make in relation to this situation in Georgia? Care to share?

    I was wrong. I misremembered it. Lavrov was responsible for blaming the US for instigating the ruckus. Some goober with “Russia’s MFA in Crimea” made with the threats.

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    Sergei Lavrov says we’re provoking it …

    So have I and others here and elsewhere. Does that mean that we have anything to do with it?

    Lavrov hasn’t even presented as much evidence as the Russians had on “Ukrainian Nazis.” Have you any?

    It is easy to “provoke anti-Russian sentiments” though. Do you know how to do it? Ask a citizen of a country bordering on Russia how they feel about Russia.

    • #94
  5. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):
    So, without passage of this law, what’s to stop Russia from funding Georgian NGOs to the tune of >20%? From becoming a foreign actor in Georgia?

    They don’t need to. Why buy a newspaper’s editorial policy when you own the Prime Minister?

    • #95
  6. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    These protests weren’t about press freedom concerns, which the people of Georgia could simply address by legitimately voting out politicians they had previously legitimately voted in, and replace them with ones they like better.

    Putting better people in office may “address” the issue, but it doesn’t solve the institutional, systematic problem that the law would create. …

    This law (the main feature of which would require domestic groups/institutions that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign entities to register as “foreign agents”) would be no more onerous, and would cause no more of an “institutional, systematic problem”, than our own country’s FARA law, which has been in existence since the 1930s. India, Australia, Hungary, etc. have similar laws. Canada’s government, as I’ve been pointing out the last couple of days, just announced that it’s thinking of implementing such a law themselves.

    And I’ve pointed out that we were heading in much the same direction during the Russia-Trump hoax.  That doesn’t make it any better. 

    The people of Tbilisi didn’t seem to trust your sanguine view.  Was that because they knew you were were making light of the law? 

    What I would have liked was for western journalists  to ask more probing questions of those people on the streets rather than eliciting some “Rah, rah, EU!”  statements and ending there. But I suppose that was about as much as western journalists are capable of understanding.

    The whole “This is a Russia style law!!!” narrative was manufactured out of whole cloth, because it is as effective at inflaming passions there as “Hands Up, Don’t Shoot!”/”I Can’t Breathe!” were here. And it sure worked. The protests turned into riots, the parliament building was almost breached, and the law was abandoned. Did the protests stop? Ooooh, no. The list of demands was “refreshed”, escalating to demands for the Dream Party politicians to resign, and early elections to be called FORTHWITH!!!

    I’m half expecting Victoria Nuland to show up forthwith. Perhaps with bags of cookies to pass around in Tbilisi’s Freedom Square.

    Some people will do anything for a cookie.  She could probably go to Moscow with a bag of cookies and use that to incentivize the people into overthrowing Putin. 

    • #96
  7. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):
    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.

    Russia would beg to differ.

    Really? Care to provide evidence of their involvement in the drafting of this law, or even just pushing for it?

    If I had said Russia had been pushing for this law, I suppose that would be appropriate.

     

    • #97
  8. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    These protests weren’t about press freedom concerns, which the people of Georgia could simply address by legitimately voting out politicians they had previously legitimately voted in, and replace them with ones they like better.

    That is not really a legitimate conclusion.  You can say the same thing about any protest in any democratic country  at any time.

    These protests walk, talk, and quack like astroturfed opposition to a law that sought to introduce stringent disclosure requirements upon domestic organization/institutions that receive more than 20% of their income from foreign entities. Obviously, Western NGOs and such don’t want any.

    Then how come every single news report I pull up says that the crowds are all pro-Europe, pro-American, and pro-Ukraine?  And that they fear the law will make them follow in Russia’s footsteps, and that they fear Russian influence?  One even reported that 80% of Georgians want to join the European Union.

    You are telling us the exact opposite, yet you haven’t provided any evidence, just a speculative theory.

    • #98
  9. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Percival (View Comment):
    It is easy to “provoke anti-Russian sentiments” though. …

    Oh, I know it is. Super-easy. Not just in that part of the world, of course. Prime example: the anti-Russia hysteria we have been put through here, in our own country, since November 8, 2016.

    Percival (View Comment):
    Ask a citizen of a country bordering on Russia how they feel about Russia.

    I grew up in that neighborhood. Romania, to be exact, while it was still behind the Iron Curtain. Got into quite a few fights with kids in my neighborhood, on the basis of my being half-Russkyi. Until I got a couple of years of gymnastics training under my belt, after which they learned to steer well clear. 

    • #99
  10. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.

    Again, all the news reports mention that the Georgian protesters are worried that the law will be just as repressive as the Russian law.  It seems to be the dangerous example used by the Georgian protesters.  What makes you think otherwise?

    • #100
  11. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.

    Again, all the news reports mention that the Georgian protesters are worried that the law will be just as repressive as the Russian law. It seems to be the dangerous example used by the Georgian protesters. What makes you think otherwise?

    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws (I’m taking this from previous comments made by @gpentelie)? 

    Why do you still trust any media outlets to give you the full story, let alone an accurate one? I sure don’t. The US has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades, and the people who seem to pay the highest price are the inhabitants of the countries where they take place. And if someone knows of a case where national sovereignty and representative democracy were achieved, I’ll need to hear about it. It seems it usually looks something like this:

    • #101
  12. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Is the US better served by a Georgia that is at peace with Russia, or a Georgia that is in conflict with Russia?  The answer to that question will tell you which NGOs the National Endowment for Democracy will fund.  Looking at Maidan, I’m not optimistic.

    • #102
  13. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):
    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws

    Our law says that if the represented entity is a foreign government, then you have to register as an agent for a foreign government because guess why?: you are an agent for a foreign government. It’s kinda straightforward.

    • #103
  14. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    Then how come every single news report I pull up says that the crowds … fear the law will make them follow in Russia’s footsteps, … 

    Because the crowds have indeed stated it. So the reporting is perfectly accurate.

    Question is, …

    Do the protesters’ fears regarding said law’s effects have anything to do with what’s actually in the law? Or have their fears simply been stoked by opposition politicians/legislators (and outside entities), including by the country’s President, Salome Zourabichvili, who characterized the law as “Russia inspired” and such?

    • #104
  15. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws (I’m taking this from previous comments made by @ gpentelie)?

    It occurs to me that I may not have provided any sourcing for this. Let me remedy that. Here’s one, from the Canadian government’s page on the foreign agent registration law they’re thinking of implementing:

    Annex A: International Benchmarking

    United States:

    The U.S. also uses the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) to address malign foreign influence. In 1938, FARA was enacted to require individuals doing political or advocacy work on behalf of foreign entities in the United States to register with the Department of Justice (U.S. DOJ) and to disclose their relationship, activities, receipts, and disbursements in support of their activities. FARA does not prohibit any specific activities, but rather it seeks to require registration and disclosure as a measure of transparency. FARA does not have any specific provisions targeted at former public office holders. A publicly accessible database of registered foreign agents is maintained on U.S. DOJ’s website, and the FARA Unit of the Counterintelligence and Export Control Section in the National Security Division is responsible for the administration and enforcement of FARA. FARA has been in place for over 80 years, but recently, detected violations have provided leads for the FBI to initiate counter-intelligence investigations, some of which have led to criminal charges and/or immigration proceedings.

    Australia:

    In 2018, Australia introduced the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (FITS) into law. Generally speaking, any person is required to register under the FITS if they engage in, or plan to engage in, activity that is undertaken for the purpose of political or governmental influence and on behalf of a foreign government, foreign political organization, or foreign company, where total or substantial control can be exercised by a foreign government, or foreign government-related individual. Crucially, registrable activities include not only traditional lobbying but also communications and spending undertaken for political or governmental influence and on behalf of a foreign principal. Additionally, whether a particular activity is registrable or not depends on who the foreign principal is and the purpose of the activity, and in some cases on the person’s former status. A former Cabinet Minister must register any such activities for life, while a former designated position holder (senior government or Parliament official) must do so for 15 years following their having left the position.

    United Kingdom:

    In 2022, the United Kingdom tabled a Bill to again update and reform the Official Secrets Act, as well as bring forward a new foreign influence registration scheme (FIRS) that would require individuals in scope of certain requirements to register activity being undertaken for, or on behalf of, a foreign state.”

    Link: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2023-nhncng-frgn-nfluence/index-en.aspx

    • #105
  16. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Is the US better served by a Georgia that is at peace with Russia, or a Georgia that is in conflict with Russia?

    Definitely the latter. Same for the rest of the world.  

     

    The answer to that question will tell you which NGOs the National Endowment for Democracy will fund. Looking at Maidan, I’m not optimistic.

     

    • #106
  17. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    Percival (View Comment):
    Our law says that if the represented entity is a foreign government, then you have to register as an agent for a foreign government because guess why?: you are an agent for a foreign government. It’s kinda straightforward.

    So the globalists get a pass. 

    I don’t find that comforting.

    • #107
  18. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Is the US better served by a Georgia that is at peace with Russia, or a Georgia that is in conflict with Russia?

    Definitely the latter. Same for the rest of the world.

     

    The answer to that question will tell you which NGOs the National Endowment for Democracy will fund. Looking at Maidan, I’m not optimistic.

     

    I should point out that a country can both be at peace with Russia and in conflict with Russia.  That is better than engaging in a fighting war (unless one is forced on you).  

    • #108
  19. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Following up on my previous post (#105), here’s a source for India’s FARA-like law:

    A new law that was signed on September 28, 2020 will greatly tighten and restrict the existing Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA). FCRA is the cornerstone law that regulates how nonprofits in India can receive foreign funding, including from U.S.-based foundations and corporations. 

    The new law took effect September 29, 2020.

    In short, the law is likely to impact how foundations and corporations make grants to Indian NGOs, in several important ways.”

    Link: https://cof.org/news/new-indian-fcra-amendments-impact-foreign-grants-indian-ngos

    • #109
  20. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.

    Again, all the news reports mention that the Georgian protesters are worried that the law will be just as repressive as the Russian law. It seems to be the dangerous example used by the Georgian protesters. What makes you think otherwise?

    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws (I’m taking this from previous comments made by @ gpentelie)?

    The Georgians have watched up close the way Russia has used its law to stifle independent journalism and dissenting voices.  It didn’t matter whether the entities were foreign entities. They had to register as such if they dissented from the government line.  It was a way of marginalizing them.  Alexei Navalny’s group had to register as such, as did TV Rain, and even bloggers who’ve fled Russia and are now operating from other countries.  

    Those of us who’ve watched how our state security services stifled dissenting voices on Twitter and other social media should be very concerned about how those things are done. 

     

    Why do you still trust any media outlets to give you the full story, let alone an accurate one? I sure don’t. The US has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades, and the people who seem to pay the highest price are the inhabitants of the countries where they take place.

    Why do you trust the media outlets who tell you that the U.S. has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades? 

     

     

    And if someone knows of a case where national sovereignty and representative democracy were achieved, I’ll need to hear about it. It seems it usually looks something like this:

     

    Ukraine is such a case.  

    • #110
  21. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Is the US better served by a Georgia that is at peace with Russia, or a Georgia that is in conflict with Russia?

    Definitely the latter. Same for the rest of the world.

    Except for Georgia. And Russia.

     

    • #111
  22. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Zafar (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Is the US better served by a Georgia that is at peace with Russia, or a Georgia that is in conflict with Russia?

    Definitely the latter. Same for the rest of the world.

    Except for Georgia. And Russia.

     

    And, if war erupts in Georgia: Turkey, which shares a 150 mile or so border with Georgia, across which war refugees would flood. Turkey would not be very pleased, of course, which would cause some friction between it and the rest of NATO. Erdogan would seek to exact some price for such troubles, of course. And so on, and so on, …

    Makes me think of Jenga. 

    • #112
  23. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Makes me think of Jenga. 

    Talleyrand smiles.

    • #113
  24. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.

    Again, all the news reports mention that the Georgian protesters are worried that the law will be just as repressive as the Russian law. It seems to be the dangerous example used by the Georgian protesters. What makes you think otherwise?

    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws (I’m taking this from previous comments made by @ gpentelie)?

    Why do you still trust any media outlets to give you the full story, let alone an accurate one? I sure don’t. The US has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades, and the people who seem to pay the highest price are the inhabitants of the countries where they take place.

    I know about the bias of the Press.  But if that is so, how do you know that the U.S. has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades?

    • #114
  25. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Russia has about as much to do with the foreign agent registration law in question as it does with the one that Canada is thinking of implementing. Meaning, zilch.

    Again, all the news reports mention that the Georgian protesters are worried that the law will be just as repressive as the Russian law. It seems to be the dangerous example used by the Georgian protesters. What makes you think otherwise?

    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws (I’m taking this from previous comments made by @ gpentelie)?

    Why do you still trust any media outlets to give you the full story, let alone an accurate one? I sure don’t. The US has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades, and the people who seem to pay the highest price are the inhabitants of the countries where they take place.

    I know about the bias of the Press. But if that is so, how do you know that the U.S. has instigated multiple color revolutions over the decades?

    Celebratory articles?

    • #115
  26. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    Then how come every single news report I pull up says that the crowds … fear the law will make them follow in Russia’s footsteps, …

    Because the crowds have indeed stated it. So the reporting is perfectly accurate.

    Question is, …

    Do the protesters’ fears regarding said law’s effects have anything to do with what’s actually in the law? Or have their fears simply been stoked by opposition politicians/legislators (and outside entities), including by the country’s President, Salome Zourabichvili, who characterized the law as “Russia inspired” and such?

    I have no idea.  Do you have some inside knowledge?

    • #116
  27. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):
    Maybe because Hungary, India, Australia, Canada, and even the US have similar laws (I’m taking this from previous comments made by @gpentelie)? 

    I read that Soros has called for regime change in India just last month.   Apparently, he is unhappy they are getting too independent from Atlantist influence.   He is a very power person that likes to topple government/financial systems for fun and profit.   I don’t want other countries to associate the USA, with his actions.

    • #117
  28. GPentelie Coolidge
    GPentelie
    @GPentelie

    Rodin (View Comment):

    GPentelie (View Comment):

    Makes me think of Jenga.

    Talleyrand smiles.

    Oui, monsieur. Je croix aussi que il vraiment sourirait.

    • #118
  29. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Hang On (View Comment):
    Russia has lots of available assets in the making. They have just increased their military by another million.

    Russia’s population has been decling for quite a while.  As for armies, they are scraping the bottom of every barrel they can find.  These are not elite troops, but conscripts not so eager to die.  Yes, I’m familiar with the famous “quantity has a quality all its own” quote, but the quantity still needs a basic level of quality.  The situation is going to get more intense the next few months . . .

    • #119
  30. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Stad (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):
    Russia has lots of available assets in the making. They have just increased their military by another million.

    Russia’s population has been decling for quite a while. As for armies, they are scraping the bottom of every barrel they can find. These are not elite troops, but conscripts not so eager to die. Yes, I’m familiar with the famous “quantity has a quality all its own” quote, but the quantity still needs a basic level of quality. The situation is going to get more intense the next few months . . .

    Pictures of German tanks arriving in Ukraine to attack Russians will be true, propaganda and motivating to Russians.

    As for falling populations, try Ukraine.

    And it is already intense. There are two cauldrons forming at the moment. The Ukrainians are throwing in everything to counterattack but the weather isn’t cooperating. Nor the Russians.

    Add to this that the Ukrainians are losing and using equipment and munitions faster than Nato can produce it, and it suggests when the Ukraine and Nato will be through.

    • #120
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