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The Final Numbers from Arizona (13 Days After Election Edition)
You guys: On Monday, November 21, all counties in the state of Arizona finally finished counting the Election Day votes. And it only took them 13 days. In fact, two of the contests were so close that automatic recounts were triggered. Those won’t begin until after December 5 … another 14 days away.
Want to restore trust in the process, Arizona? Reform the bad election laws. For the last time, let’s go to the big board…
Governor
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lake (R) | 49.7% | 1,270,774 |
| √ Katie Hobbs (D) | 50.3% | 1,287,890 |
U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Masters (R) | 46.5% | 1,190,643 |
| √ Mark Kelly (D) | 51.4% | 1,315,771 |
Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Finchem (R) | 47.6% | 1,200,411 |
| √ Adrian Fontes (D) | 52.4% | 1,320,618 |
Attorney General
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Abe Hamadeh (R) | 50.0% | 1,254,102 |
| * Kris Mayes (D) | 50.0% | 1,254,612 |
Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 12)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| √ Kimberly Yee (R) | 55.7% | 1,390,135 |
| Martin Quezada (D) | 44.3% | 1,107,036 |
Superintendent of Public Instruction
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| * Tom Horne (R) | 50.2% | 1,255,977 |
| Kathy Hoffman (D) | 49.8% | 1,247,009 |
None of the percentages shifted over the past week. Of course, these numbers are unofficial until certified on December 5. But we’re not out of the weeds yet!
An automatic recount is triggered when opposing candidates finish within 0.5 percent of the total votes. This applies to two races: Attorney General and Superintendent of Public Instruction. In the first, Kris Mayes (D) defeated Abe Hamadeh (R) by a mere 510 votes. In the second, Tom Horne (R) defeated incumbent Kathy Hoffman (D) by 8,968 votes.
Also, Arizona’s current Attorney General, Mark Brnovich (R), has demanded that Maricopa County officials provide a report on the tabulation machine problems on Election Day. By November 28, the county must detail the specific problems related to the printers at each polling location and how poll workers were trained.
Please note that your humble author sat next to Mark Brnovich in government class at Shadow Mountain High School. We would pass National Review issues back and forth, and drive our liberal teacher crazy with our anti-communist tirades. At the time, I worked as a highly acclaimed bag boy at Safeway. One afternoon, after we annoyed the teacher in class, he came into the store and bought a 12-pack of Meister Brau (a very, very cheap beer). After that, we called him “Meister Brau”; he didn’t like that either.
P.S. I worked with AG candidate Hamadeh at the Goldwater Institute, and AG candidate Mayes was my editor at Arizona State’s student newspaper. Knowing me is apparently a job requirement.
Previous Arizona Election Posts:
Published in Elections
A consent decree would be apporpriate if you can show me how any county did anything wrong. Given the polices enacted by our Republican Legislature, the counties did their jobs as quickly as can be expected.
Since the term election denier is okay and moderators is specifically told us not to flag your use of it I believe I’m going to start using Fraud Denier.
And this is an incompetent state. I’d be really ashamed. Then again, I didn’t vote for Biden.
Edited with better Suggestion!
I choose not to be a Fraud Denier
Edited with better Suggestion!
If you can’t produce results 2 weeks after an election. Your management may need to be reviewed.
This is so true, and it is something to be at least embarrassed by.
I missed that moderators said that it’s okay to slur fellow “dinner guests”. Is that a Reagan level perk?
A member was told to stop flagging use of the term “Election Denier”.
And it does not get redacted. So, clearly it is OK at Ricochet.
A wise person asked that I not use the phrase “Election Denier” but try “Biden Election Denier.” That was a wise suggestion. Since then I have not used the phrase “Election Denier” without Biden’s name attached. You are certainly entitled to call me a “Fraud Denier.”
I am not ashamed of Arizona; I am proud of Arizona. We voted for a Pro-Life, NRA “A” rating, low taxes, less regulations, woman who seconded Trump’s 2020 nominatation for State Treasurer by a landslide. In statewide elections, Arizonans just refused to vote for “Biden Election Deniers” that’s all, as did most of the swing states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
We now know what wins. Conservatism wins. “Biden Election Denial” loses. Choose accordingly.
The Arizona Legislature has ordained that any voter can walk into any precinct in the County and drop off ballots, instead of, um, simply voting. If we have a hard cut-off for mail-in/drop-off ballots of the Saturday before the election, then we can crank out results within hours of the election. Talk to the Legislature.
Change the law. Have a hard deadine for dropping off ballots. Do what Florida does.
You were heard. Upon a request, I started voluntarily using “Biden Election Denier” instead of “Election Denier.”
I’m not in your state you change the law. It’s your state that’s the embarrassment not mine. Weird for you to tell me to change the law when I don’t even vote in your state.
Is there a move afoot to change the law?
That’s really not me better because it still uses the term denier. That’s really the part of the epithet that’s the problem. And more importantly it shows that you really don’t have anything wrong with people who say elections were bad just one election involving 1 person. Way on yourself Gary.
Well, how about “Biden Election Victory Disputer.” You are disputing that Biden won the election, aren’t you? Are you willing to be called a “Disputer” instead of “Denier”?
I would like to see AZ party turnout figures for 2022.
AZ is interesting because it is 34% GOP, 30% Dem, and the rest independent (or minor party). Nobody wins without a strong showing with the independents which explains in part the “maverick” shtick that seems to sell in AZ. Trump as an outsider in 2016 gets a small edge. Trump qua Trump loses that edge in 2020.
What I never quite grasped about the whole McCain/maverick thing is that there does not appear to be an ideological core at work–just the promise of occasional dissent theater.
My impression from the numbers in AZ and elsewhere is that the Democrats’ national advantage in money, media, ground troops, and data power gave them a 1-5 point bump in many places, enough to offset what should have been a major beating.
In AZ, the MAGA vs. NeverMAGA schism not only depressed GOP performance but turned off the indies. A point or two loss from GOP no-shows and defections, a point or two lost from disgruntled indies, and a point or two gained by Dems by means of better mobilization means that what should/could have been a set of healthy 4-5 point wins across the board turns into 1-3 point losses across the board–exactly what happened.
Unless Ms. Lake can come up with some specific, quantifiable proof of fraud, I think the analysis in the previous paragraph is correct. Not saying she’s wrong but we need names of fake registrations and/or multiple voters, whistleblowers, and smoking gun docs, or else suck it up, move on and plan better next time.
The correct term is an EIS (“election integrity skeptic”). “Denier” is a sophomoric, overtly Democratic/MSM construct born out of the origination of that term in climate-change religious centers. For ANY republican to use that term is deeply pathetic and a voluntary bend-over for the left.
What I’m saying is that fraud and rigging was involved.
The use of the word denier is the specific insult and I’ve been very clear on that. You’re using it is to link somebody who disagrees with your point of view with Holocaust deniers. I don’t care if the mods or Blue yeti or Peter Robinson or Rob Long don’t care that it’s insulting. The left begin using climate denier as a way to silence opposition. Your adoption of that terminology uses the same methodology to try to silence and shame opposition.
Ultimately I don’t care what you call me because I don’t value your opinion of me at all. I will however continue to point out your use of language that’s clearly designed to link people to anti-Semitic Holocaust deniers.
It is amazing to me how much you’re willing to defend this position. For somebody who has made such a big deal of Donald Trump calling people names, you here hypocritically all but call people Nazis. If anything Gary I’m simply trying to hold you to your own stated principles.
hahaha! Love it.
And the “power” they fight over is so lame. I’ve tried to engage with the party several times and it’s always been a disaster. All they want to talk about is stuff like, “you need to blog a five-part series about Jennifer Pittman’s three-month internship with Intel (which is totally woke!). And she opposed me for secretary of Precinct 49 in 1996, but NOW she wants to lead Precinct 27?! Over my dead body!”
Exactly. He was a weathervane and would pick a few weird fights with his own party for the sake of it, or for some hidden interest. The MSM would praise him since they love red-on-red bloodletting.
This is key. Indies see both sides screaming at each other and decide to vote for the side with the least drama. Most voters couldn’t care less about ideology, and just want to be left alone. (And, since they aren’t ideological, they don’t understand that the left will never, ever leave them alone.)
Seems like such a sad division. But, I think when one is wounded so much it happens.
I think GA still has the ringing effect of flipping from super Democrat to Super Republican in a swoop. A lot of conservative Democrats switched parties, since it used to be a one party state, to have power, they had to be Democrats. I am not always thrilled with the GOP leadership here, but it is not Abrams.
BTW my last favorite governor was a conservative Democrat, Roy Barnes. Roy was my sort of governor. He got things done and took names. Ticked a lot of people off. And lost reelection.
That was a sad part of Trump’s presidency. All the drama was manufactured by the press, Democrats, and the IC (BIRM) and then they pushed for a “return to normalcy”™. The economy was doing well and peace was happening in the Middle East but those barely paying attention heard everything was in shambles and “adults” needed to be returned to the White House.
Whatever.
Just a couple of points to close out my night about what winning really is, and what it is not. Winning is being able to see, as Reagan says, part of that loaf you wanted realized. Yes, whole loaf is best, but part of that loaf is fine.
This is in reference to one office winning – the treasurer. No, this is not winning. Winning would have been tactically putting your political difference aside and voting for conservative governance. Having AG, Gov, SoS, and a Senator enables implementation of policy and conservative governing. Having lost all those offices and having a Treasures is not winning. It’s actually a tactical failure. We all can have differences in policy, please learn to vote for policy and governance, like every sub-group of the party has learned.
I would be curious as to why the last legislature and Governor did not fix this. Were there not a number of bills that failed by one or two votes? Who were those folks? Worse still, if the new legislature attempts to “fix” this mess – it will be vetoed. Because you didn’t vote for the candidate that would give you part of the loaf – like Reagan says – so you are, again, not winning.
This is very unhelpful. Plenty of ink spilled by multiple conservative outlets denouncing the use of this word. Your political opposition branded it and began pushing it. I didn’t like my recent Gov. pick because of language he used regarding some pandemic-related thing. I voted for him, because the alternative was bad. I never referred to him as a “science denier” – because it’s a known pejorative, and a lefty smear-term. I did voice my displeasure in his adopting of certain terms and language – but made sure to forcefully and full-throatedly endorse his superior policy and governing philosophy as a Republican as plenty good reasons to vote for him.
Because I want to win. To get, like Reagan said, half a loaf. To not violate the 11th rule of politics, as Reagan quoted from his State GOP Chairman, and badmouth the candidate – EVEN if others have violated this rule, I will bury the hatched to tactically win. Winners govern and legislate. Losers – well sometimes I guess they can balance their state checkbook with down ballot victories, but BIG missed opportunities remain something to properly address.
Cut the crusts from your heart, discard the heels of the loaf in compromise and enjoy a sandwich of winning next time please, your country might depend on it one day.
He has nothing else.
Please, please, please show me how there was a molucule of “fraud” involved. I don’t see an ounce of it. There wasn’t any fraud and you dishonor yourself with arguing that. The County Recorders of four of Arizona’s five counties that had the most voters, were Republicans who were funded by Republican Boards of Supervisors. Were there hiccups? Of course. There are every year. But people voted, using paper ballots when the machines’ ink didn’t show up.
Was there rigging? No. The County Recorder puts out the names of people as they have voted, and have done so for years. That’s not rigging, that is what has happened for years.
In Chicago, the ward heelers look at the lists on election day and insure that all of their people have voted. There is an army of city employees who take time off from work on Election Day to get people to the polls.
In Arizona, the Democrats have a sophicated GOTV program. After the primary, they canvass all Democrats and keep track of who is favorable to the Democrat candidates that year. When absentee ballots come out they go back and ask those people to vote and note that an advantage of voting is that they, the canvassers, won’t be coming back once you have voted! Every day they tabulate all of their voters who have voted, and take them off of the canvassing and calling lists. People who have voted are not called on the phone, nor are they canvassed. But the people who haven’t gotten their ballots in? There is an army of canvassers who call and come back over and over and over again to drop off literature, until a voter has voted. Is it legal? Absolutely. It is ethical? Yes. Do Republicans do it? No. We are the stupid party. We think that rallies, Push Polls and TV ads work. Democrats know that showing up at someone’s door makes the difference.
Trump and Kari Lake would have big rallies. People go and cheer rah, rah. And then they go home. The Democrats had rallies at their office on Saturdays and Sundays with the canvassers. There was an army of canvassers going out. Kari Lake’s incindiary language gave us the steely determination to fight “that woman” to the very, very end. I was convinced that Kari Lake was going to win. But I was so pissed at her, that I went out over and over again to do my part to stop her.
My football comparison is this. Kari Lake had the ball on the 1 yard line with seconds left and just needed to score to win. I was in the trenches, on a goal line stand. But just as Seattle threw an interception in Super Bowl XLIX to to New England’s Malcolm Butler in SuperBowl 49 on February 1, 2015, sometimes a team does not score from the 1 yard line. I gave everything I had to stop Kari Lake, the female Trump from winning. I was sure I was going to lose. But I showed up and gave everything I had.
Katie Hobbs did not win the election. Kari Lake lost her election.
After the primary, Kari Lake went to CPAC and said that she had put a stake through the John McCain Machine in Arizona, and gestured like she was shoving a stake into his heart.
Every time Trump spoke, he raised the energy level of Democrats to keep the “Biden Election Victory Disputers” out of power.
Kari Lake campaigning with Steve Bannon, Paul Gosar and Wendy Rogers was the height of foolishness.
Kari Lake telling John McCain supporters a few days before the election to “go to hell” was fatal.
If Kari Lake had not campaigned, she would have won. But she could not keep her mouth shut. Katie Hobbs won solely be default.
Jon, a few years before you were at Shadow Mountain High School down the road from me, I attended Saguaro High School in Scottsdale, and successfully passed out petitions for National Review to be stocked in the library.
NO. Trump is not conservative governance. Trump insisted that candidates literally lie about the 2020 election. I will never, ever, under any circumstance, forgive that.
Trump lied, the Republican Party died.
Whether you like it or not, there is a hard 5.7% of the voters who will vote for a conservative for public office, but will not vote for a Trump Endorsed candidate who disputes the “Biden Election Victory.” You can lose with Trump or Trump endorsed candidates, or you can win with any one else.
I worry for AZ