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What’re the Odds?
On Wednesday morning, November 9, the day after election day, there were 44 undecided seats remaining for the US House of Representatives. The Republicans had 207 seats and the Democrats had 184. So, of the 44 undecided seats, the Republicans only needed to win 11 more to have the 218 to control the House. That sounded pretty good at the time; 11 out of 44 meant that they only needed to win 25% of the undecided seats.
“Fast” (pun intended) forward to today and 24 of the 44 have now been called. Only 20 seats remain undecided. Did the Republicans get at least 25% of those 24 seats? That would mean only a measly six more. No, they only ‘won’ four more seats to stand at 211. This puts control of the House down to 20 seats. The Republicans need seven out of these 20, a decidedly larger challenge (35% of the remaining when they couldn’t achieve 25% success in the previous five days.
The longer that the vote-counting process goes on, the higher the probability that the Democrat wins the seat. Change my mind.
Porque no los dos?
1) In states you have the Gov. & Leg. you clean up the states you can.
2) In states you don’t, you play by whatever the election rules are in a state, win and enact #1
Because, if you don’t occupy the offices to clean it up – you usually can’t.
There is plenty of rot in Indy.
An update. Fully one week after the election, there still is no call for the United States House of Representatives! The Republicans have 217 seats and need only one more to pry the gavel from the cold, dark and evil hands of Nancy Pelosi (hey Nanc! does that have any impact on your retirement plans?) There are 13 as yet undecided seats from which to pull that elusive 1:
AK-AL: Alaska At Large district (what is this you say? At Large? I said the same thing. WTH? Every other state uses numbers?) This is a district that is judged to lean democrat and the democrat (Mary Peltola) is in the lead. But AK uses rank (yes, it smells indeed) voting and the leader didn’t get 50% so phase II will be implemented. In second place Sarah Palin will need to get most of the third place candidate’s (Nick Begich) votes. It stands to reason that Palin will get the most of Republican Begich’s votes, but will it be enough? It is rated a toss-up.
ME -02: Maine also uses rank voting. WTH?! Democrat Jared Golden did not reach the magic 50% but is leading ahead of the magic phase II vote re-alignment. It is rated a toss-up.
CA-03: Republican Kevin Kiley holds a strong lead over the democrat, BUT only half the ballots have been counted?!! California accepts mail-ballots for the week following election day?!! It is rated likely Republican.
CA-06: Incumbent dem Ami Bera is leading. It is rated safe dem.
CA-09: Incumbent dem Josh Harder is leading comfortably. It is rated leans dem.
CA-13: Republican John Duarte has a narrow 800 vote lead. It is rated toss-up.
CA -21: Dem Jim Costa leads comfortably. Rated safe dem.
CA-22: Republican David Valadao leads comfortably by 3,000 votes. Still rated a toss-up.
CA-27: Republican Mike Garcia has a commanding 13,000 vote lead. Still only rated leans Republican.
CA-47: Dem Katie Porter leads by 3,000 votes. It is rated a toss-up.
CA-49: Dem Mike Levin leads. It is rated a toss-up.
[Side Note: apologies to AZ. CA is much more screwed up than you are. But you knew that.]
CO-03: Incumbent Republican Lauren Boebert leads. It is rated likely Republican.
CO-08: Dem Yadira Caraveo narrowly leads. It is rated leans Republican.
By my count, there are at least five good opportunities (AK-AL, CA-03, CA-22, CA-27, CO-03) for the one remaining needed seat for the Republican majority, and several toss-ups as well.
Not gonna happen. All 13 remaining will go to Democrats.
What are the odds!?
But we’ll be chastised by our own side if we question it.
Are you saying that the Dems are waiting until the last day to make sure they have just the correct amount of ballots drawn out of their ballot warehouse to declare victory? But don’t you know that would be immoral?
And we know that the party that booed God at their convention has that as a top concern.
Gosh darn, golly gee, I sure hope so!
Hats off to Kevin Kiley in CA-03 who became Republican #218 to give the majority of the House to the party that opposes Nancy Pelosi! Excellent!
Let’s have a parade! The witch is dead!