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On Wednesday morning, November 9, the day after election day, there were 44 undecided seats remaining for the US House of Representatives. The Republicans had 207 seats and the Democrats had 184. So, of the 44 undecided seats, the Republicans only needed to win 11 more to have the 218 to control the House. That sounded pretty good at the time; 11 out of 44 meant that they only needed to win 25% of the undecided seats.
“Fast” (pun intended) forward to today and 24 of the 44 have now been called. Only 20 seats remain undecided. Did the Republicans get at least 25% of those 24 seats? That would mean only a measly six more. No, they only ‘won’ four more seats to stand at 211. This puts control of the House down to 20 seats. The Republicans need seven out of these 20, a decidedly larger challenge (35% of the remaining when they couldn’t achieve 25% success in the previous five days.
The longer that the vote-counting process goes on, the higher the probability that the Democrat wins the seat. Change my mind.