What’re the Odds?

 

On Wednesday morning, November 9, the day after election day, there were 44 undecided seats remaining for the US House of Representatives. The Republicans had 207 seats and the Democrats had 184. So, of the 44 undecided seats, the Republicans only needed to win 11 more to have the 218 to control the House. That sounded pretty good at the time; 11 out of 44 meant that they only needed to win 25% of the undecided seats.

“Fast” (pun intended) forward to today and 24 of the 44 have now been called. Only 20 seats remain undecided. Did the Republicans get at least 25% of those 24 seats? That would mean only a measly six more. No, they only ‘won’ four more seats to stand at 211. This puts control of the House down to 20 seats. The Republicans need seven out of these 20, a decidedly larger challenge (35% of the remaining when they couldn’t achieve 25% success in the previous five days.

The longer that the vote-counting process goes on, the higher the probability that the Democrat wins the seat. Change my mind.

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  1. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    So, I still don’t get what they mean by the margin of fraud.  How do we know when we’ve exceeded it?

    • #1
  2. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Flicker (View Comment):

    So, I still don’t get what they mean by the margin of fraud. How do we know when we’ve exceeded it?

    It’s complicated. A moving target. That’s why the democrats get more time to count in order to successfully stuff enough of their fraudulent ballots into the process. In Bush v Gore, one of the best things that James Baker did, was to stop the counting process in order to put a logical and observable process in place, with oversight.

    • #2
  3. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    Flicker (View Comment):

    So, I still don’t get what they mean by the margin of fraud. How do we know when we’ve exceeded it?

    There is no way to exceed it when the count continues until the Republican looses. 

    • #3
  4. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    Columbo: Change my mind.

    I wish I could.

    • #4
  5. EODmom Coolidge
    EODmom
    @EODmom

    Cant. Its the design. 

    • #5
  6. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    You are presuming fraud, and putting the burden of proof on the other side.  That is not our traditional way of resolving accusations of wrongdoing.

    Have you looked carefully at the locations of the uncalled races?  My suspicion is that many of them were out west, in Arizona and Nevada and California.  It takes longer to count the vote in Arizona and Nevada than in other states, and it seems that this may be the case in California too, though I’m not sure about this.

    RCP currently has the tally at 212-204, with 19 not yet called.  Of those:

    • 1 is Alaska
    • 2 are in Arizona
    • 11 are in California
    • 1 is in Colorado
    • 1 is in Maine
    • 1 is in New Mexico
    • 1 is in New York
    • 1 is in Oregon

    I don’t know the breakdown of the seats called between Wednesday and today.

    To answer your question properly, I think that you would need to get a list of the uncalled seats as of Wednesday, and consider them district-by-district.

    • #6
  7. WI Con Member
    WI Con
    @WICon

    I realize that I’m off a different mind on Trump 2024 here, but the election integrity issues that were brought to the forefront in 2020 and the lack of action on correcting these issues, especially in GOP controlled states is inexcusable! Many of those GOP office holders are like their federal counterparts in their timidity and passiveness. I think they bought into the claim that ‘there was no fraud’, that Trump honestly lost, therefore – no need to do anything, they just had to be rid of him. Tea Party demise 2.0

    In WI, Dem. Tony Evers is naturally blocking any reforms. We did obtain a veto-proof majority in the state assembly, but not the senate, so no veto-proof reforms forthcoming. Dispite court rulings to purge voter roles (I stilll don’t think that’s been done, there were around 74,000 that shouldn’t have been on list in 2020, don’t know what this is now) and to reform the ‘Indefinately Confined List’ (this is a group of “voters” that cannot vote in person, infirm/elderly…hypochondriacs? cat ladies? stoners? and as a result don’t apparently have to show ID!). This was around 243,000 people in 2020 – I don’t know what it was this year.

    Same Day registration – I have looked at my Village, looked at City & County of Milwaukee and still have not been able to find/determine how many same day registrations there were. So, when they talk about % registered voters, if the denominator is continually increasing due to this same day registration, those precints suspected of having 100% or more voter participation are obsured. 

    This crap has been known for decades. Nothing was done, even when we had total control of Governor & legislature under Walker. 

    There were some Dog Candidates (both MAGA & Establishment) that lost this year. Trump is not responsible for all this failure at all. Some, yes – not as much as he’s being blamed for though, “The Supid Party” shares a greater blame in this one.

    • #7
  8. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    You are presuming fraud, and putting the burden of proof on the other side. That is not our traditional way of resolving accusations of wrongdoing.

    Have you looked carefully at the locations of the uncalled races? My suspicion is that many of them were out west, in Arizona and Nevada and California. It takes longer to count the vote in Arizona and Nevada than in other states, and it seems that this may be the case in California too, though I’m not sure about this.

    RCP currently has the tally at 212-204, with 19 not yet called. Of those:

    • 1 is Alaska
    • 2 are in Arizona
    • 11 are in California
    • 1 is in Colorado
    • 1 is in Maine
    • 1 is in New Mexico
    • 1 is in New York
    • 1 is in Oregon

    I don’t know the breakdown of the seats called between Wednesday and today.

    To answer your question properly, I think that you would need to get a list of the uncalled seats as of Wednesday, and consider them district-by-district.

    Jerry , do you honestly believe if all the states ran their election like Florida the results would be what they are ?

    • #8
  9. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    You are presuming fraud, and putting the burden of proof on the other side. That is not our traditional way of resolving accusations of wrongdoing.

    Have you looked carefully at the locations of the uncalled races? My suspicion is that many of them were out west, in Arizona and Nevada and California. It takes longer to count the vote in Arizona and Nevada than in other states, and it seems that this may be the case in California too, though I’m not sure about this.

    RCP currently has the tally at 212-204, with 19 not yet called. Of those:

    • 1 is Alaska
    • 2 are in Arizona
    • 11 are in California
    • 1 is in Colorado
    • 1 is in Maine
    • 1 is in New Mexico
    • 1 is in New York
    • 1 is in Oregon

    I don’t know the breakdown of the seats called between Wednesday and today.

    To answer your question properly, I think that you would need to get a list of the uncalled seats as of Wednesday, and consider them district-by-district.

    I didn’t bother with this detailed analysis. I presumed the democrats are cheating again.  I also presumed, as I did on election night, that the Republicans were going to narrowly win the House. Otherwise, the media would have called it for the dems on election night. Never in my wildest nightmares would I think that the counting would still be going on for 19-20 seats. If I had, I would have never presumed so cavalierly that the Republicans would have taken the House.

    And once again, you bring up Arizona and Nevada voting and counting, defending it as it is what it is and that that should be acceptable to the nation. It is not.  You liken a desire to know the election results of the U.S. House of Representatives on election night to the impatience of a 3 year old. And now it’s already five days late! I liken the intransigence of old people’s comfortable voting habits to the selfish laziness of a septuagenarian.

    • #9
  10. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    You are presuming fraud, and putting the burden of proof on the other side. That is not our traditional way of resolving accusations of wrongdoing.

    Have you looked carefully at the locations of the uncalled races? My suspicion is that many of them were out west, in Arizona and Nevada and California. It takes longer to count the vote in Arizona and Nevada than in other states, and it seems that this may be the case in California too, though I’m not sure about this.

    RCP currently has the tally at 212-204, with 19 not yet called. Of those:

    • 1 is Alaska
    • 2 are in Arizona
    • 11 are in California
    • 1 is in Colorado
    • 1 is in Maine
    • 1 is in New Mexico
    • 1 is in New York
    • 1 is in Oregon

    I don’t know the breakdown of the seats called between Wednesday and today.

    To answer your question properly, I think that you would need to get a list of the uncalled seats as of Wednesday, and consider them district-by-district.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/arizona-announces-they-have-finished-counting-and-calvin-coolidge-has-won-their-3-electoral-votes

     

     

    • #10
  11. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Columbo: The longer that the vote counting process goes on, the higher the probability that the democrat wins the seat. Change my mind.

    You say “odds” like it is random.  But each race is “undecided” because the votes are not all counted.  The more DNC controlled the election, the longer it takes to count the votes.  Thus, undecided (incomplete) elections are more Democrat leaning.   There really are 435 different elections.

    • #11
  12. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    • #12
  13. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    I used to tell my kids when they complained that poor officiating cost them a victory in whatever sporting event they’d lost …  yes the officiating sucks, you knew that going in.   You need to win by enough that even the awful officials can’t change the outcome.

    • #13
  14. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    I used to tell my kids when they complained that poor officiating cost them a victory in whatever sporting event they’d lost … yes the officiating sucks, you knew that going in. You need to win by enough that even the awful officials can’t change the outcome.

    In sport the turf /terrain / rules , remain the same.  In politics , progs make sure it keeps changing while the establishment republicans yawn and blame Trump.  

    • #14
  15. WI Con Member
    WI Con
    @WICon

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    I used to tell my kids when they complained that poor officiating cost them a victory in whatever sporting event they’d lost … yes the officiating sucks, you knew that going in. You need to win by enough that even the awful officials can’t change the outcome.

    In sport the turf /terrain / rules , remain the same. In politics , progs make sure it keeps changing while the establishment republicans yawn and blame Trump.

    If we actually lose the house, do you think they’ll actually re-evaluate their denial of election integrity issues? I’m already seeing not a pivot but a ‘we have to get in this mail ballot/ballot harvesting game’. 

    It shouldn’t “be any part of the game”. The Trump/Maga blame game only goes so far.

    • #15
  16. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    WI Con (View Comment):
    If we actually lose the house, do you think they’ll actually re-evaluate their denial of election integrity issues?

    I think the rot in the Republican party extends to most state houses . Think about this . I live in a solid red state with a R house, senate and Gov. Been this way for a number of years. Why on earth since they hold the purse strings , do they permit the state colleges and k thru 12 to teach anything resembling prog woke bile ?  Yet they do.

    Like I said . The republican rot is deeper than DC .  No I don’t think they have the will to fix any of this. 

    • #16
  17. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Columbo: The longer that the vote counting process goes on, the higher the probability that the democrat wins the seat. Change my mind.

    I won’t, because you are exactly correct.

    Election Day turning into Election Month works in the Democrats’ favor.

    We must return to paper ballots and hand counting. Everyone votes on election day, all votes are counted on election day. 

    Extremist position incoming . . .

    Any state which fails to accomplish this is reduced to “territorial” status, and its representation in government shall be diminished. Maybe we’ll let them have a non-voting role.

    • #17
  18. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    I used to tell my kids when they complained that poor officiating cost them a victory in whatever sporting event they’d lost … yes the officiating sucks, you knew that going in. You need to win by enough that even the awful officials can’t change the outcome.

    “Poor officiating” isn’t the proper comparison. The closer metaphor would be having one’s opponent control the scoreboard.

    WI Con (View Comment):
    In WI, Dem. Tony Evers is naturally blocking any reforms.

    Well, he got in by fraud. He’s gotta make sure he stays in.

    • #18
  19. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Look … they’ve been stealing elections since at least 1960.   They’ll continue to do it no matter what safeguards are established.   While we can and should make it harder for them than it is…There’s always a way to game  any system.   But it only goes so far.   It only works if things are close.   So it can’t be close. 

    • #19
  20. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    So, I still don’t get what they mean by the margin of fraud. How do we know when we’ve exceeded it?

    There is no way to exceed it when the count continues until the Republican looses.

    I agree. “We must get past the margin of fraud” has become a rather empty expression.

    And to think once upon a time all we really needed was more votes.

    • #20
  21. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    FWIW: Another Democrat Miracle! Maggie Hassan Wins 1,100 Votes from Town with Population Under 700 (thegatewaypundit.com)

    • #21
  22. TempTime Member
    TempTime
    @TempTime

    WI Con (View Comment):
    Trump is not responsible for all this failure at all. Some, yes – not as much as he’s being blamed for though, “The Supid Party” shares a greater blame in this one.

    Agree.   However, another member of my family would reply:  No, it is the Voter who shares a greater blame.   He consistently states:  Until the Voter admits to his own responsibility for  who is elected,  nothing will change.

    • #22
  23. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    • #23
  24. Freeven Member
    Freeven
    @Freeven

    I’m terrible at political predictions, but here is the trajectory I see:

    • Ds continue to push practices that undermine the perception of free and fair elections. 
    • Rs continue to whine about it.
    • Rinse and repeat.
    • At some point, Ds lose in such a way that they can point to the very policies they pushed and claim Rs cheated.
    • Ds suddenly agree with Rs that elections have no credibility.
    • Ds push the idea that the only solution is for the national government to set all election laws.

     

     

     

    • #24
  25. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Freeven (View Comment):

    I’m terrible at political predictions, but here is the trajectory I see:

    • Ds continue to push practices that undermine the perception of free and fair elections.
    • Rs continue to whine about it.
    • Rinse and repeat.
    • At some point, Ds lose in such a way that they can point to the very policies they pushed and claim Rs cheated.
    • Ds suddenly agree with Rs that elections have no credibility.
    • Ds push the idea that the only solution is for the national government to set all election laws.

     

     

     

    I prefer the scenario where Governors and their Secretaries of State clean up and revise their fouled voting procedures and processes. Yes, I’m looking at you Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. You are a bane to our great Republic.

    • #25
  26. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    TempTime (View Comment):

    WI Con (View Comment):
    Trump is not responsible for all this failure at all. Some, yes – not as much as he’s being blamed for though, “The Supid Party” shares a greater blame in this one.

    Agree. However, another member of my family would reply: No, it is the Voter who shares a greater blame. He consistently states: Until the Voter admits to his own responsibility for who is elected, nothing will change.

    I agree.  Everybody wants to blame Trump or something but the people that actually voted.  The average citizen are voting based on headlines from MSNBC.  The Democrats have made voting as frictionless as possible for those that minimally informed.   The propaganda machine that pretends to be the news has painted our side as very evil.  If the GOP does win an election I would not be surprised that the federal / state governments make a move on those not Democrat.  

    • #26
  27. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Columbo (View Comment):
    I prefer the scenario where Governors and their Secretaries of State clean up and revise their fouled voting procedures and processes. Yes, I’m looking at you Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. You are a bane to our great Republic.

    You know the Dems like a system that is a contest in ballot collection instead of voting.   They are not going to change the rules, when the game is designed to favor them. 

    • #27
  28. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    The commentariat seems to be aiming at two different solutions:

    Either . . . clean up our elections, same day voting, no mail-in ballots, all paper ballots, all hand-counting, clean up the voter rolls . . .

    Or . . . join the Democrats in ballot harvesting and other schemes.

    That second one appears to be really popular with the pundit class. That bothers me. The solution is not to match cheating with our own cheating, creating an ever-escalating cheat machine. Then elections are just a matter of who’s running the better scheme.

    No, we must take the first option: clean it all up.

    • #28
  29. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    The commentariat seems to be aiming at two different solutions:

    Either . . . clean up our elections, same day voting, no mail-in ballots, all paper ballots, all hand-counting, clean up the voter rolls . . .

    Or . . . join the Democrats in ballot harvesting and other schemes.

    That second one appears to be really popular with the pundit class. That bothers me. The solution is not to match cheating with our own cheating, creating an ever-escalating cheat machine. Then elections are just a matter of who’s running the better scheme.

    No, we must take the first option: clean it all up.

    It is not cheating.  It is playing by the current rules.  It may not be ethical but it is not illegal.   

    The GOP GOV efforts suck.  Always have.  Until that is fixed they will not win.  

    • #29
  30. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    The commentariat seems to be aiming at two different solutions:

    Either . . . clean up our elections, same day voting, no mail-in ballots, all paper ballots, all hand-counting, clean up the voter rolls . . .

    Or . . . join the Democrats in ballot harvesting and other schemes.

    That second one appears to be really popular with the pundit class. That bothers me. The solution is not to match cheating with our own cheating, creating an ever-escalating cheat machine. Then elections are just a matter of who’s running the better scheme.

    No, we must take the first option: clean it all up.

    It is not cheating. It is playing by the current rules. It may not be ethical but it is not illegal.

    The GOP GOV efforts suck. Always have. Until that is fixed they will not win.

    But if the GOP response is “let’s cheat better!” then I want no part of it, because at that point we can say with good authority nope, in America it no longer matters if you vote. Voting wouldn’t make any difference, only the best ballot-stuffer wins. So why bother voting?

    Hell, in some states that’s already the case. Why bother voting even now?

    • #30
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