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Analyzing the Midterm Mess
Some people hate Republicans. Others hate Democrats. But everybody hates polling firms.
No bones about it: the most recent midterm election is a profound disappointment to conservatives and independents hoping for a mandate for the governing class to move decisively away from the progressive base of the Democratic Party toward the center. But expectations are the enemy of happiness. It’s one thing to expect the sun to rise in the east, as it does for everyone every day; expecting pollsters to get elections right despite their execrable recent track record is something else entirely.
To reiterate: Republicans have reason to be disappointed in the just-passed election. But the pollsters have every right to respond as Otter did to Flounder in Animal House: “You ****ed up – you trusted us.”
With that in mind, one of the lessons of the 2022 midterms is that polling firms are no more trustworthy than any other institution such as the CDC, IRS, or FBI. Despair is understandable. We get it: what Trump calls the “fake news media” is against us. But cloistered as they are, the fake news media aren’t aware that most Americans are against them. High-information voters won’t be surprised at this point if Fetterman’s doctor to announced that he expects Queen Elizabeth to make a full recovery.
It is, of course, possible that Democrats maintain or even increase their majority in the Senate. It’s also possible that the majority party in the Senate will end up lost in the mail. But Republican voters shouldn’t overlook the big picture, which is that GOP takeover of both houses of Congress – not to mention Twitter – is a distinct and perhaps even the most-likely outcome. At the risk of citing Animal House again, allow me to paraphrase (very roughly!) Bluto’s rally-the-troops speech: “Beto? Buh bye. Charlie Crist? No party dare nominate him. Stacey Abraaaaaammmms?!?!”
Just as losing the 2020 presidential election is probably the best thing that ever happened to the GOP – imagine the Republican brand six years into a two-term Trump presidency! – an underperforming Republican victory at the congressional and governorship level will extend the lifeline to Joe Biden’s political career that will help Republicans win the presidency in 2024.
Not all is lost. Conservatives should take heart that the battleground states of Ohio and Florida have gone purple to red. On the policy front, a large majority of Americans understand that plastic is preferable to paper, whether it’s straws, coffee lids, grocery bags, or picking up dog poo.
Putting on my Republican consultant hat, I call on the GOP to adopt the following six recommendations to defeat the party that, by all rights, shouldn’t have won an election since the Civil War:
1: Give up litigating the 2020 election and call for re-litigating the 1960 election.
2: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s margin RealClearPolitics polling average was 12.2, whereas he won by 19.4 points. Give credit where credit is due: the national media and their political arm (the Democrats) predicted that DeSantis’ covid policies would cause the streets of Florida to turn red with blood – at least they were half right.
3: While Georgia Republican Brian Kemp led by an impressive 8.9 points in the RCP average, he won by a nevertheless very comfortable 7.6 points. In Georgia, Donald Trump and the Democrats are the parties of election denial. With this in mind, these midterms should bring an end to the Democrats’ notion that democracy dies in democracy.
4: House Republicans can now hold investigations into reports that Hunter Biden’s laptop originated in a Wuhan wet market.
5: While Biden’s lack of mental acuity can be attributed to being nearly 80 years old, Kamala Harris is at the height of her mental powers.
6: The Democrats have every intention of sticking to their talking point that democracy is too important to be left to voters.
Published in Elections
Some editing still needed.
I’m assuming this is an example of why you’ve made more comments than published posts.
I suspect that’s true of everyone. Even you, for example, appear to have made less than 200 posts, but well over 600 comments.
But I was just trying to be helpful, in case you didn’t realize it, maybe because you did your writing on a phone or something.
But anyway, let’s see.
Cloitered.
Inforation.
Doctor to announced.
There was no “Pluto” in “Animal House.”
“Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s margin RealClearPolitics polling average was 12.2.” needs another verb, or something.
“Brian Kemp lead by 8.9 points” should be led.
“6: The Democrats’ have ” should not include a ‘
That’s all I see right now.
I’ll say this for myself or, more accurately, for this website’s editors, which cannot be said for you: I’ve never felt the need to poison the well by calling for editors to edit a post mere minutes after a post has been submitted.
I wasn’t calling for the website’s editors, I was pointing it out to you, in case you hadn’t realized it. Again, maybe because you were writing on a phone or something. Or maybe relied too heavily on autocorrect or something, which would think Pluto was okay – and may have even turned Bluto into Pluto “for” you – but not realize that it was wrong in context.
I hesitate to raise the issue now, David, but . . . um . . . Charlie Christ?
Maybe I’m not getting the joke. Maybe you meant that Pluto wouldn’t know how to spell it. Wait, Bluto.
Let’s start again. Cue Bluto Biden:
Oops, I missed that this time. But I’ve caught it in other recent posts.
Heh heh.
Welcome to hell.
Thanks for the humor, Deeble!
Have fun with them Arizonans picking your stuff apart.
It’s not that difficult to get spelling correct, especially. Grammar can be a bit trickier. And of course, Pluto vs Bluto, and Christ vs Crist.
How about tact? Is tact too tough?
Tact is why I just pointed out that there were some problems to be corrected, in case he hadn’t noticed because he was writing on a phone or something, and I could have changed that after it was done. I didn’t get specific until he got his back up over just the mention, which wasn’t tactful of HIM. Most people appreciate the “tap on the shoulder.”
Depending on who’s tapping, I’d say most don’t.
Here’s what you do when someone’s post has a typo: “Ignore It.”
And if you quote something they’ve written, and the portion you’ve quoted has the typo, fix the typo out of kindness, and do not draw attention to it.
Sorry, I don’t follow the DrewInWisconsin rules of writing or whatever. Especially not for main posts, vs just comments.
That is because Drew has that tact thing going. Not much, maybe, but more than me for instance.
Good post, David. Particularly #6.
That kind of “tact” is also what keeps someone from mentioning to someone else that they have a piece of lettuce in their teeth before they go on stage before a bunch of people to make a speech.
You can keep it.
Nobody’s ever said that about me before. I’m blushing . . .
That’s more like it.
Have you heard about the private messaging system in Ricochet? That might be a better way to inform someone to look again, rather than with a public comment.
Fewer!
I’ve tried that in the past, a large share of Ricochet members don’t seem to notice them, maybe because they use their phones and the notifications are harder to see?
You’re welcome to use Professor Cat (I just made another):
Usually, if one is “trying to be helpful”, one could private message the author with the edits, and not grab the top comment.
See #3, and #22.
(And what would be the value of using a LATER comment instead? Or, interrupting someone halfway through a speech to point out they have lettuce in their teeth, rather than pointing it out before they start?)
my few posts suck and everyone either hates or ignores them.
I will vouch for kedavis good intentions. Even when I am on the receiving end.
One of my favorite insults has to be something like “What do you know, you don’t write nearly as many posts as comments!” from someone with maybe 200 posts but over 600 comments.
😂😂😂