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Donald Trump Has Passed His Expiration Date
This post is a cobbling together of various points I’ve made on posts concerning Donald Trump’s effect on the midterm election.
Upfront, I want to say that I am not a Never-Trumper. I have voted for him twice, praised him during his presidency, defended him from unfair attacks, and will vote for him again if he is our nominee. I am also not an Always-Trumper. When reality hits you in the face, you must address it.
It goes without saying the results of this election were a letdown. All the indicators (economy, crime, direction of the country, etc.) were on our side, and we get this? This is the most mind-boggling midterm election of my lifetime. I don’t understand it. We are not seeing something. I hope this election is a reality check for all conservatives. Humility is the first step to correction.
Now Donald Trump is not the only factor for the negative results. This could be a generational change. The young socialists could finally be coming into power. Or perhaps abortion was that big a deal to people. But I think enough analysis is out there now to show that Trump did have a negative effect. His personally picked candidates generally lost, but more importantly the Democrats ran against Trump and nationalized Trump. He became the brand of the Party, he was the face of the Party, and his persona colored the electorate’s decision-making process.
The Trump negative effect was multi-faceted. Not only was he a drag as a person, but this helped the Dems by (1) fundraising and (2) constantly instilling the negative news of Jan 6th into the election dialogue, and (3) splitting off the Republicans and Independents that would have voted against the direction of the Biden administration. The Democrats certainly played games in our primaries to match up against Trump enthusiasts, and that apparently worked. But more importantly, by nationalizing Trump, they were able to offset Biden’s national negative likability. Trump’s aura hung over the election.
Every politician gets trashed by the other side. It’s a question of whether it sticks. No matter how hard they tried, it didn’t stick to Ronald Reagan. Unfortunately, it sticks pretty easily, rightly or wrongly, to Trump. There are reasons why it sticks to Trump. For one, he comes across as an angry man, and angry men can be characterized in a negative way. Another, he’s a very polarizing person. He sets it up that way, like it or not. You’re either in with him or you’re not. Sure, you might like that, but it excludes, and that is not coalition building. Another is his post-2020 election histrionics. If he had been a gracious loser, he might have had a higher ceiling.
Before yesterday’s election, I said if he runs he’s either a 50 +1 candidate or a 50-1 candidate. It’s a flip of a coin on how things break. That was his history in 2016 and in 2020. It broke his way in 2016. It didn’t in 2020. And familiarity doesn’t change that dynamic. Everyone now has an opinion on Donald Trump. No one is changing their minds.
But after this election, I now see him at best as a 40-45% candidate. It’s clear he’s lost ground. Familiarity in politics, especially with politicians with idiosyncrasies, and Trump certainly has those, tends to bring a decline in popularity. In addition, Trump’s constant presence in the news has quickened the decline of his political capital.
Political capital goes down with familiarity. There’s a reason why most President’s approvals go down in second terms. Even Ronald Reagan’s did. The more familiar you are with a politician’s negatives, the less appealing he becomes. Trump has run out of positive capital and at this point, unless you’re a die-hard, the only reason to vote for him is to avoid the other guy.
There is an expiration date on politicians. This is less so for legislative politicians since they can blend back into the mass group of other legislators, but not so for the executive leaders, and especially the President of the United States or whether one wants to be President. Like it or not, and it may be unfortunate, Donald Trump has passed his expiration. I take no glee in it. I will vote for him again if he wins the primary, but I sure hope he doesn’t.
Published in Elections
Yes, he would make that deal if it meant keeping the Republican Party together.
I’m reminded of a comment I read way back in 2016 when people couldn’t understand how Trump could be gaining traction. It was in the context of talking about the stock market, how people want stability. But if you are low, then stability is bad, and volatility tends to works in your favor.
Basically, if the status quo is not working for you, then your best option is to disrupt the system. Yes, the chaos was a feature. Send a wrecking ball to Washington. And we did.
The big question, really, is whether we still need more wrecking.
I think we do. Not sure about which wrecking ball to send, but a wrecking ball is still needed.
I think Lake is pretty impressive. JD Vance as well.
Dr. Oz and Walker- agreed, pretty bad.
I’m starting to think Trump is more senile than Biden.
What the hell is this garbage?
He’s giving McConnell a big assist here.
No one needs to psychoanalyze Trump to understand his actions. It’s pretty clear what he’s doing and why. It’s a rational strategy. Time will tell if it’s actually a good strategy.
Since Lyin’ Ryan has stuck his nose back into GOP politics, he would be a much more appropriate target. Don is losing it.
I don’t know what that means.
The more Trump babbles, the more he feeds the “Tuesday’s disaster is all Trump’s fault!” narrative, which takes the focus off where it really belongs: McConnell.
So that’s supposed to be a good thing?
No, but it distracts from the real problem in the GOP as I see it: McConnell and his gang. The Elephant in the room, not the Elephant who left the room.
The more he talks the wider McConnell’s smile.
LOL, does he believe this stuff, does he think others will believe it, or both? The problem with this kind of far fetched nonsense is that it only works at the beginning when you are a new face (remember Obama’s birth certificate?) but then it becomes childish once the public gets used to it.
How have they jettisoned social conservatism?
Admittedly I have only seen a little bit of Lake here on the east coast. It was just a first impression and I could be wrong. I hope she pulls this out.
It’s all gone to his head.
I’m tired of McConnell too. We need a fresh face if we win the Senate. But it won’t happen until McConnell retires. When is he up for election?
We need new Senate leadership.
Four rallies in five days leading up to Tuesday. Trump worked hard to get the win for his party and little appreciation has been shown for the effort he put in. Instead, he’s been blamed. I don’t blame him for being angry and though I wouldn’t support him in doing so, I wouldn’t blame him for wanting to burn it all down.
I don’t see the national party doing what DeSantis is doing in Florida. Where have they been fighting the woke ideology, getting CRT out of schools, combating the child-groomers and the teen-mutilators? Governors are doing that (still too few), but I don’t see much concern for that out of Washington — and haven’t for years.
I understand your comment but this is not the right approach if he plans to enter the race. We know it is about the people but this looks like he thinks it is about him.
We need a fresh face there regardless if we take Senate or not. Preferably one with a chin.
Agree, but we all have our limits. I wonder if Trump has reached his. I wish the party had the willingness to express gratitude to him, support him behind the scenes in his legal wrangles, and try to get him to accept Elder Statesman status.
Yeah, that is right. Agree. My thought was they have stuck with pro-life but on the other issues I do not see national Republicans taking a stand.
The National Party was caught flat-footed when Roe v. Wade was overturned. They did not know what to do next or even how to communicate what it meant, even though they’d supposedly had that as a party platform for decades. This allowed the Democrats to instantly lie to the entire country about it.
And then Graham did his stupid little response, just playing into their hands. I tend to think he did it deliberately.
But once again, the GOP got what they always claimed to want (but secretly didn’t) and fumbled the follow-up. (Just like in 2016 where they never expected Trump to win, and then spent two years doing nothing because they had no agenda ready to go.) (Oh except saving Obamacare, which they always promised to overturn.)
But surely this is just incompetence. Funny thing, though. They certainly are competent enough to get wealthy while being incompetent a their political professions (note: in the US, politician isn’t legitimately a profession).
Well done. Excellent analysis, and kind, too. “With malice toward none…” I am heartened beyond all expectation that so many are coming out with the “Trump must go” realization. Hope lives.
Trump was the necessary bull in a china shop. We now need someone to clean up and actually make the china shop run well. It sure looks like that someone is Ron DeSantis.
Since when has Trump ever cared about the Republican party?!
I agree, though CRT in schools is more of a local issue and can be fought more effectively at the local level. But I think Washington can and should do more about the teen mutilators, otherwise this evil only stops when the victims grow up, regret being rushed into life-altering surgeries and hormone treatments, and then start suing. But too much damage will have been done in the meantime.
Since he realized it was the only means of successfully opposing Demo-rats? That’s what I once thought it was and that was the only reason that I ever cared about it at all.