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Donald Trump Has Passed His Expiration Date
This post is a cobbling together of various points I’ve made on posts concerning Donald Trump’s effect on the midterm election.
Upfront, I want to say that I am not a Never-Trumper. I have voted for him twice, praised him during his presidency, defended him from unfair attacks, and will vote for him again if he is our nominee. I am also not an Always-Trumper. When reality hits you in the face, you must address it.
It goes without saying the results of this election were a letdown. All the indicators (economy, crime, direction of the country, etc.) were on our side, and we get this? This is the most mind-boggling midterm election of my lifetime. I don’t understand it. We are not seeing something. I hope this election is a reality check for all conservatives. Humility is the first step to correction.
Now Donald Trump is not the only factor for the negative results. This could be a generational change. The young socialists could finally be coming into power. Or perhaps abortion was that big a deal to people. But I think enough analysis is out there now to show that Trump did have a negative effect. His personally picked candidates generally lost, but more importantly the Democrats ran against Trump and nationalized Trump. He became the brand of the Party, he was the face of the Party, and his persona colored the electorate’s decision-making process.
The Trump negative effect was multi-faceted. Not only was he a drag as a person, but this helped the Dems by (1) fundraising and (2) constantly instilling the negative news of Jan 6th into the election dialogue, and (3) splitting off the Republicans and Independents that would have voted against the direction of the Biden administration. The Democrats certainly played games in our primaries to match up against Trump enthusiasts, and that apparently worked. But more importantly, by nationalizing Trump, they were able to offset Biden’s national negative likability. Trump’s aura hung over the election.
Every politician gets trashed by the other side. It’s a question of whether it sticks. No matter how hard they tried, it didn’t stick to Ronald Reagan. Unfortunately, it sticks pretty easily, rightly or wrongly, to Trump. There are reasons why it sticks to Trump. For one, he comes across as an angry man, and angry men can be characterized in a negative way. Another, he’s a very polarizing person. He sets it up that way, like it or not. You’re either in with him or you’re not. Sure, you might like that, but it excludes, and that is not coalition building. Another is his post-2020 election histrionics. If he had been a gracious loser, he might have had a higher ceiling.
Before yesterday’s election, I said if he runs he’s either a 50 +1 candidate or a 50-1 candidate. It’s a flip of a coin on how things break. That was his history in 2016 and in 2020. It broke his way in 2016. It didn’t in 2020. And familiarity doesn’t change that dynamic. Everyone now has an opinion on Donald Trump. No one is changing their minds.
But after this election, I now see him at best as a 40-45% candidate. It’s clear he’s lost ground. Familiarity in politics, especially with politicians with idiosyncrasies, and Trump certainly has those, tends to bring a decline in popularity. In addition, Trump’s constant presence in the news has quickened the decline of his political capital.
Political capital goes down with familiarity. There’s a reason why most President’s approvals go down in second terms. Even Ronald Reagan’s did. The more familiar you are with a politician’s negatives, the less appealing he becomes. Trump has run out of positive capital and at this point, unless you’re a die-hard, the only reason to vote for him is to avoid the other guy.
There is an expiration date on politicians. This is less so for legislative politicians since they can blend back into the mass group of other legislators, but not so for the executive leaders, and especially the President of the United States or whether one wants to be President. Like it or not, and it may be unfortunate, Donald Trump has passed his expiration. I take no glee in it. I will vote for him again if he wins the primary, but I sure hope he doesn’t.
Published in Elections
LOL! Pot meet kettle! Let’s talk about all the times you’ve called me a Putin stooge because I don’t agree with Biden’s warmongering in Ukraine, or that we should be writing blank checks to that grifter, Zelenskyy.
The fact is you hate Trump, and you’ve made that clear. Though I’ve presented you with the facts (admitted to even by NBC) to refute your Big Lie, you twist plain meaning in an attempt to make lies into truth.
It doesn’t work, though. A lie is still a lie no matter how you twist it.
Did Trump tell Georgia voters to go to the polls and cast their votes? Yes, he did. Those who spread the myth that he told them to stay home are LYING.
And I hate liars.
First, I answered about the attacks. Read the OP. They either stick or they don’t. They are the norm in politics. They stick like glue to Trump because of his distinct personality.
Second no way are NeverTrumpers 5% of the electorate or even 5% of Republicans. And by NeverTrumpers I would call them Republicans who have been turned off by Trump’s vulgarity. It is not an issues thing but an expectation of minimal level of decency in discourse. But they would vote on the issues with Trump. Judging by who are on Ricochet, I would say that amount to a handful. Judging by Ricochet I would say it’s less than 1%.
However, all the independents and non-political people who recoil from Trump’s personality must add up to a sizable and substantial part of the electorate. I don’t know what it is, but I see it all around me. Your assumption about Vance missed one significant possibility. There is probably a good amount of people there who voted for Vance and would not vote for Trump. I bet our NeverTrumper Gary falls into that category.
Trump has been a 50% candidate at his tops. His histrionics after the 2020 election has caused that to go down further.
Let me ask you something. When at best Trump has been a 50% candidate at best, and he’s dropping like a rock, and there are people who are still AlwaysTrumpers, who is the dupe that keeps buying into his BS?
A small number is not what voted against the Trump candidates. This is conspiracy theory stuff.
“We’ve got to move on from Trump!” say the people who keep posting about him over and over and over.
I’ll repeat this again:
First, all politicians are demonized by the opposition. This is nothing new. It either sticks or it doesn’t. It didn’t stick to Ronald Reagan. It sticks like glue to Trump because of his personality. Second, why should we start with a candidate who is already demonized and baked into the cake. Start fresh and find someone who can handle it. From what I’ve seen, they have tried to demonize DeSantis. But it does not seem to have worked.
So without evaluating the “Trump” candidates on their own merit, voters will reject them? ‘eff ’em. I guess we’re done.
Even Trump admitted he didn’t do enough in Georgia b/c he was angry:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-anger-over-2020-election-hurt-gop-georgia-runoffs-book-2021-10
Trump didn’t immediately repudiate the statements by Wood & Powell telling people not to vote in the runoff. Their ridiculous claims successfully diminished GOP turnout. They worked for Trump.
Of course they evaluated on their own merits, and found them lacking. The Dems knew what they were doing when they assisted in their promotion. As Ann Coulter pointed out this morning, if Herschel loses the Georgia runoff, Donald Trump would have cost the Republicans a senate seat in Georgia three times in two years. The two that got elected two years ago were way more Liberal than should be possible in Georgia.
I have found the alternatives lacking, but opinions will vary I suppose. And I’m not so sure they were evaluated on their own merits. We have examples at ricochet of people rejecting candidates only because they were endorsed by Trump.
Carry on, if you care to.
I’m not sure that they didn’t weigh them on their merits – or lack therein. Trump chose people for their celebrity status (Oz, Walker) or because they had shown absolute fidelity to him and to his stolen election story (Masters, Mastriano, Bolduc, etc). They weren’t picked for their competence.
As to Trump being demonized, look who’s calling the kettle black. Trump’s MO has been to demonize his every opponent. Just the Republicans: “Lyin Ted,” “Low Energy Jeb,” “Frozen Jellyfish” (Romney), “Little Marco,” “Hapless Governor” (Brian Kemp), “the world’s biggest jackass” (Lindsey Graham), “fake conservative” (Rand Paul), and there is a heck of a lot more. And the latest of course “DeSantimonious.”
Didn’t he claim that Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the JFK assassination?
Maybe the demonization sticking to Trump is because he demonizes everyone. A politician’s negatives go up as he brings other’s negatives up. That’s a rule of political advertising.
I am not a NeverTrumper but I found Oz, Walker, Lake lacking. But I do find JD Vance engaging. His inexperience showed at times, but he has a certain charisma.
Mostly agree with ya. Gotta STRONGLY disagree with you on Lake, though.
OK. I’m no expert on her. She seems to touch too much on conspiracy theories. But perhaps I’ve only seen short, biased clips.
The Republicans’ abandoning Donald Trump at this point in this chapter of American history will have major consequences going forward. It withdraws support from everything he did. If he had changed somehow from the time he was elected, if he were no longer the person the Republicans nominated and the country elected, then his loss of support wouldn’t have long-term effects. But he has not changed. It is only the public’s approval of him that has changed.
Even worse, it will deliver an important psychic victory to the Democrats. There will be a national epidemic of smugness everywhere you look and everywhere you go. I don’t think I could bear to look at the news headlines if DeSantis were to run and beat Donald Trump in the next presidential primaries.
Even worse than that, it would legitimize the horrific way the Democrats treated him throughout his term in office, and it would legitimize the J6 prosecutions.
The victor writes the history.
This.
I am not a NeverTrumper. Forced to explain why, I would say that Trump was a necessary disrupter: He channeled and expressed the legitimate anger of a large number of Americans who, after eight years of Obama, were not only poorer but had been insulted and dismissed by elites. (E.g. “Deplorables.”) Obama’s personal charm, immunity to criticism and the weaponization of identity politics combined to permit a whole lot of destructive policy. The “bubbling” of elite America was so complete that, in order to change the conversation, someone, somewhere, had to pitch a fit.
Arguably, in 2016, it had to be Trump, flaws and all. The fit got pitched—and then some.
And we are not, today, where we were in 2015. Old Joe Biden is not Barack Obama, nor even Hillary Clinton. “Intersectional” Kamala Harris, or any of the other duds the Dems have on their shallow bench reveal the flabbiness of the Democratic party. Pigeons have come home to roost. Things are a mess because of the Democrats/elite institutions, and more Americans are seeing it that way.
I remain staunchly pro-Deplorable. I want the Republican party to maintain its new focus on fighting for normal, working Americans and for America itself. I very much hope that whomever the next candidate is, he or she will explicitly commit to the MAGA agenda, enthusiastically promote and defend it, go ahead and fight the culture wars where necessary (e.g. when law and lawfare are involved) and, oh yes, do a decent job of running the country.
In part thanks to The Donald, that candidate no longer needs to be The Donald.
I think the tragedy was Trump’s lack of finesse, in spite of his being very smart. When he went on the attack at the beginning it was needed; the disruption was critically important. But he didn’t know when or how to modify his approach; it’s possible that the attacks on him would have modified, too, since he wouldn’t have been so hateful. But that’s all history. This is where we are, where he is, now. There’s no turning back or remaking history.
The most irritating thing to me and likely to him was hearing quarter-wits who couldn’t properly run a two-car funeral or a five-member staff meeting call him stupid. We even had fools at ricochet, some of whom are no longer around, wanting the 25th Amendment to be invoked even before he took office.
Some of them, but unfortunately not all of them.
The only way the country survives as a two-party country is if Trump and DeSantis work together. I cannot say that strongly enough.
DeSantis is in a good position to reform Trump.
There was a young conductor of our local youth orchestra who alienated a lot of the local teachers. But in all the time I worked with the orchestra, never once did I hear a single person criticize the conductor as a musician. And people who have ever spent five minutes with musicians will realize instantly why that is significant. He was competent, and in a music teacher, what more do you want for your kids? It’s the most important thing.
Trump was never wrong, in my opinion, in his assessment of situations and the fixes he recommended for problems. My respect for him as an executive came as a huge surprise to me, and since I was raised by a mother who always defended the personality challenged by saying, “When you need a brain surgeon, trust me, you don’t care how offensive he is to everyone,” I stopped caring about his poor manners. I do realize there’s an inherent problem there in that the brain surgeon has to work with a surgical team, and if that team hates him, the patient is cooked. Of course, in my mom’s day, the surgeon was in charge. No one questioned him, and everyone’s job was to do whatever the surgeon said. There were minimal conflicts because of the top-down management. Today, the surgeon must get along with the twenty people on his team. If they don’t like, they will undermine him. The Ayn Rand in me whispers, “That’s how mediocrity settles in. It always follows groupthink and social pressure.”
Back to DeSantis: If he’s truly brilliant, he will figure this out. He will make a deal with Trump: “You stop talking to and about people the way you do–no more personal insults, clean and simple–and we will work together to save the Republican Party and the country.” I know Donald Trump will take that deal.
If DeSantis does not make that deal, then he is as big an egomaniac as Trump ever was.
MarciN, I don’t see Republicans abandoning the good changes that Trump made in the GOP. But his personal shortcomings (good heavens, now he’s claiming credit for Youngkin’s success and saying how “Young Kin” sounds Chinese!) his age, and his poor judgment in picking candidates demonstrates that he needs to enjoy some time on the golf course.
I think Trump was a disrupter at a time we needed a disrupter. I think the mood of the country has changed – I think Americans want normalcy and lately Trump has been reminding them of the chaos he brings. There’s been enough chaos in recent years…
I think DeSantis has as big an ego as Trump and can get just as mean. (I don’t hold that against him, I got no problem with either of them being mean to save the country from Satan’s minions.) We have only seen hints of it so far, but watch for it. A Presidential race will definitely bring that out, and our domestic enemies will pounce on it.
The Country Club Republicans are going to clutch their pearls over DeSantis. We have seen hints of that, too, say for example, when he went after Disney. “That’s just not done! What is he doing!?” gasped the Cruise Ship Conservatives.
Mark my words: the establishment doesn’t really like him and will turn on him.
We need to stop thinking so one-dimensionally. If we really have as deep a bench as we keep saying, then we shouldn’t be piling all our hopes on DeSantis. (We shouldn’t be doing that even if we don’t have a deep bench, really.)
The Republican Party has reduced Reagan’s famous three-legged stool to only one leg. They jettisoned social conservatism and fiscal conservatism long ago. And now all that’s left is military intervention, and that leg belongs to the Democrats.
I don’t think he’ll make the deal because Trump won’t keep his part of it. He’ll get upset about something and go on a tear. If he tries to make the deal with DeSantis, DeSantis should insist that if Trump breaks it, the deal is off. That’s the only deal that makes sense.
I don’t see Trump being willing to work with DeSantis in any way, shape, or form. He can’t share the limelight.
I agree – I think we do have a deep bench and it’s wise to consider them all.
If you believe that the regime can’t be reformed by regular politics (I now believe this after the last election) then Trumpian chaos is a feature, not a bug.