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Why Democrats Don’t Bother to Campaign
Or debate. Or kiss babies.
Democratic candidates realize that the election is no longer about votes. It is about ballots. And a candidates does not need to do very much in order for their staff and ballot-harvesting infrastructure to manage and deliver ballots.
It is all explained here, and the post is right on the money.
A vote cannot be cast by a person who is no longer alive, or no longer lives in the area. However, a ballot can be sent, completed and returned regardless of the status of the initially attributed and/or registered individual.
While ballots and votes originate in two totally different processes, the end result of both “ballots” and “votes,” weighing on the presented election outcome, is identical.
The Right thinks “Fraud!” and there is something to that. But it is more: the Left simply has figured the system out much better than the Right has, and they are playing the system, much like how one studies for a test.
When ‘ballot organization’ becomes more important than ‘vote winning,’ you modify your electoral campaign approaches accordingly. It might sound simplistic, but inside the distinct difference between ballots and votes you will find why refusing debates is a successful strategy.
If you are trying to win votes you could never fathom campaign success by refusing to debate an opponent. However, if your focus is centered around ballot collection, the debate is essentially irrelevant.
…
Michigan and Pennsylvania voters are likely very unhappy today, while Michigan and Pennsylvania ballot providers are smiling.
If Democrats had to win individual ‘votes’ to gain election success, they would be at a disadvantage. As long as Democrats only need to gather ‘ballots’, they have a path to winning elections. The processes of electioneering are all modified accordingly.
Which is how Biden “got” 81 million, and Fetterman and Hochul won, etc. We are being played.
Published in General
This is why turnout or enthusiasm doesn’t matter anymore, at least for Democrats. They don’t need people to make the effort to vote on election day, they just need them to allow them to fill out the ballot for them in the weeks preceding an election.
Republican reliance on the traditional means of winning elections – polling, townhalls, ads, debates – shows they don’t even know what the game is.
I think that is part of the explanation, but only part. I think it is also a matter of Republican leadership isn’t doing what potential Republican voters want at the congressional level, so why bother voting for them?
Republican voters are more geographically dispersed, so harvesting their ballots is more difficult and expensive.
I don’t know. I see lots of explanation why this could have happened, but it seems too easy to me. Like HangOn, I’ve no doubt that it might be a factor, but to blame the bulk of the election results on ballot harvesting seems like a stretch and a cop-out by the writers of the article. If true, Republicans need to get loud and ugly about preventing this from happening, and not just wring their hands.
I think I read somewhere that 52% Fetterman “votes” were mail in. We need to have a way for the other states to reject the electoral votes from states that fail to maintain accurate voter rolls (ie being alive and residents). Then we work on picture ID’s and acceptable chain of custody processes.
A Federal outright ban on Mail in votes probably cannot be done given that several state (Colorado, Washington, Oregon?) have been doing this for many cycles with some success, but I don’t know if they are having any high degree of fraud.
Why should they? It is their country. It is their government. They can do what they want when they want. They do not need too.
The way I’m thinking of it is not in terms of blame or finger-pointing, or of problems. It’s adjusting to the new reality of how elections are conducted, whether we consider that reality good or bad. One of the things that helped Obama get elected in 2008 was his understanding of how the internet now affected elections, which was better than his opponents. Right now, Democrats have a better understanding of the implications of the new election laws and are taking advantage of them – not necessarily illegally.
For starters, we need to stop thinking about election day and start thinking about election season. In PA, 4.2 million votes were cast on election day, and 2.6 million votes were cast via mail-in. That’s 38% of all votes already cast by the time election day came. The election wasn’t held on election day; it was held over the month prior and only ended on election day.
What do parties do on election day? They concentrate on GOV efforts and getting people to the polls. Well, if we have election month rather than election day, that just means a party has an entire month for the GOV efforts and capturing votes. And the earlier you capture votes the better, because they can’t be rescinded. It didn’t matter to the votes already cast that Fetterman was unintelligible in his debate – so get as many votes cast as you can as early as you can. Democrats understand this.
And while it may be hard to get people motivated to physically go to the polls on election day, it’s much easier to get them to apply for mail-in ballots anytime over the month prior to the election. How many disinterested people voted for Fetterman because a Democrat operative got them a mail-in ballot and told them to vote for him? How many of those same voters would have voted for Oz if Republicans had done the same thing? No one knows, but I’m confident it is more than zero. It’s like getting people to sign a petition. Few are likely to take the initiative to go and sign one, but many more will sign one that is pushed into their face. The same thing with mail-in ballots.
Republicans need to play the game as it is constructed.
Good post
Republicans do need to get in the ballot harvesting game but there are other reasons for the disappointing showing Tuesday.
A Republican Leadership absolutely has to go. Mitch McConnell didn’t want certain pubs, (those favorable to the base),to win and definitely did not want the pubs to take back the Senate. He and his minions Cornyn and Thune have to go. And Trump has tp put his ego in check.
B No pub really put forth a solution to our economic woes and no Pub really wanted to explain the perilous shape the economy truly is in. Pubs need to forthrightly discuss the issues and stop being cowards.
C. The 18 to 29 cohort voted heavily Dem by a whopping 29 percent margin.
To deal with this problem the Pubs need to finally discuss in depth how the government led by the Dems is utterly screwing the younger generational and propose realistic solutions. And the educational system needs to be reformed so public schools and Universities need to be required to present fairly both sides of all the crucial issues facing the country.
Interesting. So iwe’s comment that we are being played, from your analysis, is not necessarily true. So Republicans need to work the system like the Dems do. I suppose I can agree with that, especially since it doesn’t look like we’re going back to a traditional voting process. But I would like to be as certain as possible that it is legal.
Sadly, I believe this is true . . .
For an even better take on what’s going on now, as well as a strategy for the future, read this post from Conservative Treehouse.
Points
In states where ballot collection operations are allowed within the election law, the entire Republican apparatus in those states – and all the candidates – need to immediately change their entire outlook on electioneering (CA, WA, WI, MN, IL, NY, PA, VA, CO).
In those states like PA, Mich and Wisc, Republicans need to switch from electioneering to win votes, to electioneering to gather ballots. Everything needs to change QUICKLY, and the RNC needs a fully organized, technologically assisted, geospatial digital outreach collection and assembly organization team in place by Easter 2023.
Organized voter ballot distribution, voter ballot delivery and ballot pickup systems need to be in place by the spring 2023.
There should be no other priority for any Republican Party or politician in any state where ballot collection, mail-in ballots, ballot drop boxes, or ballot harvesting is permitted by law.
Might sound dirty. But this is war now, and all’s fair.