Election Day ’22

 

Q&A post for today and, possibly, the rest of the week. To begin with, the GOP will win big: +4 in the Senate, +30 in the House. I haven’t followed the gubernatorial races closely, but there will be wins there, too, as well as in the legislatures. The candidates I supported and whose victory I predicted are, happily, going to win, Mr. Masters in Arizona and Mr. Vance in Ohio. Are there candidates you’re especially interested in, you’ve followed, or have even knowledge from inside the campaign? How are they faring and what’s the story of the race? Have you noticed surprisingly talented politicians on the campaign trail? One example: Kari Lake, the imminent Gov. of Arizona, no doubt because she has spent her adult life in TV, but there seems to be more to it.

Next, have you read anything about the election that struck you as incredibly insightful, whether because it draws unsuspected consequences from obvious truths or because it includes observations most observers have failed to make?

Finally, a question about how quickly votes are counted. Florida is first in the nation. Gov. DeSantis will shine today, maybe the first big announcement, maybe the face of the GOP victory. He’ll win by a dozen points easy and confirm that Florida is a red state. California & New York, next to last. Michigan, I’m told, is going to be slow, too. Which states are faster with results, which slower? Which states have laws that prohibit counting early votes before the polls close? Which states have especially good organization for counting votes and which are messes?

Follow the post if you want to be part of the conversation and enjoy the victory today!

Hard to find the right musical piece, but here’s one I favor:

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Published in Elections
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There are 11 comments.

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  1. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Florida does it right.  They count mail-in ballots as they arrive.  Those results are released once the polls close.  We will know their results within a couple of hours.  

    • #1
  2. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Titus Techera: Kari Lake, the imminent Gov. of Arizona, no doubt because she has spent her adult life in TV, but there seems to be more to it.

    Lake’s career in TV has enabled her to see quite a lot of how things develop in the political arena. Being in Arizona she had a first hand picture and experience of the media as it experienced and participated in the John McCain era and she was right there when Trump and McCain went at it.

    She appears to be very smart with great communication skills. What makes her such a strong follower of Donald Trump? It might be because she knows the people behind the conflicts and knows who has the better arguments. I’m going to follow her and see what I learn about that.

    • #2
  3. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    To the polls!

     

    • #3
  4. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Florida does it right. They count mail-in ballots as they arrive. Those results are released once the polls close. We will know their results within a couple of hours.

    I have never understood the process where all this early voting occurs but then the votes are not counted until the last day. Seems a more efficient process to count the votes as they are available but release counts only after everything is complete.

    • #4
  5. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Florida does it right. They count mail-in ballots as they arrive. Those results are released once the polls close. We will know their results within a couple of hours.

    I have never understood the process where all this early voting occurs but then the votes are not counted until the last day. Seems a more efficient process to count the votes as they are available but release counts only after everything is complete.

    It’s a legal decision. 

    • #5
  6. Steve Fast Coolidge
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    I love the musical selection!

    • #6
  7. Steve Fast Coolidge
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Florida does it right. They count mail-in ballots as they arrive. Those results are released once the polls close. We will know their results within a couple of hours.

    I have never understood the process where all this early voting occurs but then the votes are not counted until the last day. Seems a more efficient process to count the votes as they are available but release counts only after everything is complete.

    It is determined by state law or court decision. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t sort of thing. If you do count early ballots as they come in; then it gives the cheaters a target to aim for, as the interim totals will inevitably leak or be known to someone who wants to cheat. Since this is the system that Florida uses, and their polling is highly regarded, they must have found security measures that make this a viable approach.

    On the other hand, if wait to count until the polls close; then it takes a long time to count and that also gives the cheaters time to cheat. It also gives the appearance of cheating as the early votes swing the results one way or the other.

    A good compromise seems to be to start counting early ballots when polls open on election day so that they will be done by the time polls close. That minimizes the time that the early ballot total is open and subject to manipulation.

    • #7
  8. Steve Fast Coolidge
    Steve Fast
    @SteveFast

    How about the 5th movement (Witches’ Sabbath) in Berlioz’ Symphonie Fantastique as accompaniment for all the cheating states?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cao6WyF-61s

    • #8
  9. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Steve Fast (View Comment):

    How about the 5th movement (Witches’ Sabbath) in Berlioz’ Symphonie Fantastique as accompaniment for all the cheating states?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cao6WyF-61s

    Wonderful! Bernstein in good form, too…

    • #9
  10. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    So the news is, I was wrong: No big victory for the GOP. Dunno why as yet–many races will take time… I still expect the Republican victory in the House. Dunno about the Senate.

    I was right about the big DeSantis victory–it looks like 20 points rather than the modest dozen I had suggested. Also Mr. Vance is going to the Senate with a large seven-point victory. This is more surprising than it seems, first because, look around, the rest of the party is not doing well, & secondly, because he has never held office of any kind before. He’s also young for the Senate at 38. Wish him all the best!

    If you want to read some of my election thoughts, I posted them the other day at PoMoCon.

    • #10
  11. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Percival (View Comment):

    To the polls!

     

    Great march. The most famous one people think  Sousa wrote but he didn’t. 

    • #11
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