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Allegations of election illegality in 2020 must be considered on a case-by-case basis. They vary in at least ten important ways:
- Some are about perfectly ordinary, well-known, and even predictable human corruption; some are about other, more sophisticated schemes.
- Some are about electronic shenanigans; some are not.
- Some claims are about election fraud as such, and some are about lesser forms of illegality.
- Some specifically involve Biden votes, and some do not.
- Some come with a chance of counting, or at least estimating, the number of votes involved. Some do not.
- Some involve votes illegally cast. Some involve votes illegally counted.
- Some have been subjected to some level of fact-checking or critical scrutiny. Some have not.
- Some that have been thus subjected have survived that fact-checking or critical scrutiny. Some have not.
- Some that have survived have been positively verified. Others have merely had the good fortune of, apparently, only being challenged by goofballs who misrepresented them before refuting the misrepresentation and calling it a day.
- Some that have been positively verified have been verified in court. Some have not.
That’s a lot of ways allegations can vary. The results are interesting, and here are some examples.
- Gregory Stenstrom’s 50k votes with a bad chain of custody in Pennsylvania: survived a round of fact-checking in which it was misrepresented, and was largely verified, but never went to court apparently. Not necessarily fraudulent votes by category.
- Something like 30k votes in Michigan with a bad chain of custody: verified in a state Senate report, but apparently never went to court, and not necessarily fraudulent votes by category.
- Mark Davis’ work, the cream of the crop, tracking votes illegally cast outside of the voter’s jurisdiction in Georgia: 50k double-checked, over 12k verified, but apparently never taken to court, and illegal but not fraudulent as such.
- Teigen v. Wisconsin Elections Commission in Wisconsin: applies to something like 54k votes illegally counted and improperly (but not illegally) cast, not fraudulent as such; verified by the state Supreme Court.
- Illegally cast mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania: about a 1.1 million Biden advantage in this category, verified up through the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court, in violation of the state Constitution but in keeping with lesser law, fraud-enabling but not fraudulent as such, almost certainly an illegality flipping a swing state, but probably votes that should still be counted and for which voters personally should not be prosecuted.
- A guy in Pennsylvania saying they weren’t letting observers see what was going on: didn’t exactly survive a round of fact-checking, so unless we learn more I think we’d best just let this one go.
- A bunch of votes cast illegally by non-citizens: nothing you could bring to court, but a decent probabilistic argument from Just Facts Daily based on sociological data from earlier elections applied to more recent census data and indicating a lot of bad Biden votes, including more than double the Biden margin of victory in Georgia and Arizona.
- Steven Crowder’s observation of about 174,000 votes without voter registrations in Michigan: It looked good at first, but this could be nothing; these were at artificial and temporary precincts for counting absentee ballots, and they presumably had access to the registration information from the real precincts. Still, 97% voting for the same guy is a ratio even Democrats wouldn’t believe–if it were an election in Russia, Iraq, or Zimbabwe.
- Some claims about well over 100,000 ghost ballots in Michigan: Incomprehensible to me. Who knows what they were even talking about?
Over time, the stronger allegations rise to the top. They show that the 2020 election was an epic disaster. Although we still don’t know nearly enough, the claims that are still standing and which have some numbers available indicate more than enough illegalities to flip swing states. More than double the Biden margin of victory, in fact, in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
We can narrow that down to just the claims which have survived a round of fact-checking, and we still have more than double, in the same five states.
If we narrow it down to just a few which have been verified, we still have more than the Biden margin victory in three states (Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
And how about just the ones verified in court? That’s still more than double in two states (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).
And note well: All of these involve well-known, perfectly ordinary human folly corruption–no big secrets or conspiracies, no hacked voting machines.
In short, without even considering the ways in which the election was rigged and without even checking the allegations about the voting machines (something I’ve been meaning to re-do soon), the American election system is broken and systematically vulnerable, and the 2020 election was a colossal disaster.
So how should we think about allegations of election illegalities?
On a case-by-case basis. Taking the problem very seriously. With attention to the differences between claims. Very carefully. Slowly if possible. And continuously. Even two years later, we have barely begun to figure this out.
This post is a continuation of a series. Since the week of the 2020 election, I’ve been trying to keep track of different allegations of election illegality and, as much as possible, make sense of them. That means figuring out, where I can, the sort of things listed above. Some of the unfinished results of this ongoing work are below.
First up is the core, but it’s big and unwieldy.
- Keeping Track of Election Fraud Allegations (available off-Ricochet here in a Microsoft Word version). (This is the biggest
- Let Us Hear the Conclusion of the Whole Matter (available off-Ricochet here in a Microsoft Word version)
- Some Evidence that Illegal Actions Flipped Swing States (or Were Enough To) (available off-Ricochet here in a Microsoft Word version)
- Where Do We Go From Here? (available off-Ricochet here in a Microsoft Word version)
And then there’s the right frame of mind for thinking through the electronic allegations (but not a word about 2020 as such):
- G. K. Chesterton’s Take on Electronic Voting Systems (available off-Ricochet here in a Microsoft Word version).
And then there’s a string of more readable intros to some of the specifics.
- Intro to Eight Election Fraud (and Related) Claims
- One Year Later: What Do We Know?
- Teigen v. Wisconsin Elections Commission
- The Quest and Questions Continue: Some Election 2020 Updates
- Who Fact-Checks the Fact-Checkers?
And then two bonus analyses:
And on we go! I think we’re just getting started.Published in