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This is Part 2 of the series of my election-night scorecard of races to watch to see how big the tide will be that may sweep Republicans into control of the US House, Senate, and state and local offices. You can find Part 1 here. If you missed it, it sets the stage. Let’s continue where we left off.
New Jersey’s 7th District, Tom Kean Jr. versus incumbent Tom Malinowski
This is a rematch of a highly competitive congressional district, made slightly more GOP in redistricting. In 2020, Kean, a former State Senator, EPA official, and son of a legendary former Governor, lost to Malinowski by just 5,309 votes. This is the temperamentally moderate, persistent, and earnest Kean’s fourth attempt at a seat in Congress (two previous House races and as the GOP US Senate nominee in 2006). And like Florida, mail-in ballots must be received by election day. Polls close at 8 p.m., and I’m looking for my friend Tom Kean to be an early election night win.
Rhode Island’s 2nd District, Alan Fung versus Seth Magaziner
Republican Fung, a former mayor, is attracting national attention for public polling that shows him ahead by eight or more points in a seat vacated by a Democratic incumbent. Polls close at 8 p.m., but we won’t have to wait for mail-in ballots — they must be received by election day. If the polls prove right, this will be a major GOP pickup, and its first GOP House seat in New England since Rep. Bruce Poliquin was defeated in 2018, thanks to Maine’s “ranked choice” voting system (Poliquin won on election day). Speaking of Poliquin. . .
Maine’s 2nd District, Bruce Poliquin versus Jared Golden
A rematch from 2018, this is a toss-up in a district Trump carried by 8 points in 2020, even as Golden was reelected. Golden was the only Democrat to vote against Biden’s signature “American Rescue Plan” mega-spending bill. This is a race that Poliquin should win in a Trump-friendly rural district that encompasses 80 percent of the state’s land mass, and pundits rate it as a “toss-up.” Mail-in votes must be received on election day, but the result may again wait for independent candidate Tiffany Bond’s votes to be reallocated to their “second choice” candidate. Let’s hope not. Ranked choice, at least for general elections, is awful, if not unconstitutional.
Maine Second District GOP congressional candidate, ex-US Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R).
Pennsylvania US Senate and 3 House races
Dr. Mehmet Oz narrowly won the GOP primary for US Senate after an endorsement from Donald Trump and a month-long recount against David McCormick. Oz began his general election campaign trailing Lt. Gov. John Fetterman by double-digits. But the coverup of Fetterman’s obvious mental impairment following a stroke just before last May’s primary election, coupled with a friendly GOP environment, is turning the race into a toss-up. Republicans have dramatically closed the registration gap in the Keystone State. I’m no fan of Oz, but he’s run a very impressive general election campaign that has zeroed in on Fetterman’s soft-on-crime record.
Philadelphia’s police union endorsed Mehmet Oz for US Senate.
The bizarre campaign and candidacy of GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano could be a drag on the GOP ticket (conversely, if the “red wave” is big enough, he could eke out a win. Seriously). Still, there are three House races in Pennsylvania to watch, and I’m looking for two of these to elect Republicans: Pittsburgh’s open 17th District (open: Deluzio-D vs. Shaffer-R), the Lehigh Valley’s 7th District (Rep. Wild-D vs. Scheller-R), and central Pennsylvania’s 8th District (Rep. Cartwright-D vs. Bognet-R). I may check to see if Guy Ciarrocchi scores an upset win over incumbent Chrissy Houlihan in suburban Philly’s 6th district, a marginally Democratic seat. If he wins, hold on to your horses. Again, due to the malevolent management of Pennsylvania’s election system, mail-in votes will take days to count after election day.
I may even peek at my former home district in deep-blue Pennsylvania’s Fifth District, a D+14 enclave that encompasses most of Delaware County. Still, the GOP should have low expectations despite a solid campaign by Republican and Naval Academy graduate Dave Galluch against mediocre incumbent Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon. That’s a stretch even in a wave election in a district that houses hard-left progressive indoctrination centers known as Swarthmore and Haverford Colleges.
New York 17th Congressional District
One of the more interesting congressional races this year involves the Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Sean Patrick Maloney. Redistricting in New York led him to run in a neighboring district at the expense of fellow Democrat and “squad” member Rep. Mondaire Jones, upsetting progressive Democrats. He faces a surprisingly challenging contest from Republican Mike Lawler. Maloney probably wins, and there are two other more competitive races in New York’s 19th and 22nd Districts, respectively. Polls close at 8 p.m., and mail-in voting will take a while (military and overseas ballots don’t have to arrive until Nov. 21). It will be a minor miracle if the GOP wins any of these seats (they are likely to lose the 22nd district seat held by retiring Republican John Katko) but watch GOP gubernatorial candidate and US Rep. Lee Zeldin’s closing campaign – he’s surging. He could bring at least two of these congressional seats with him over the finish line if he wins.
Indiana’s First Congressional District
Indiana’s polls close at 7 p.m. EST and mail-in ballots must be received by election day. There is one interesting congressional race in the state’s far northwestern 1st district between incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan and GOP challenger Jennifer-Ruth Green. This district is anchored by the city of Gary and is surprisingly competitive after decades of being a Democratic stronghold. I’ll be shocked if Green wins, but it could happen, helped by her having raised over $2.3 million in this suburban Chicago district. This corner of the Hoosier State is in the Central time zone, so we’ll have to wait for the results.
Indiana First District GOP nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green. She might win.
One last state to watch: Connecticut
Last on my early watch list is Connecticut, which may prove interesting in contests for US Senate involving stolen-valor Democratic US Senator Richard Blumenthal and GOP challenger Lenora Levy and one toss-up House seat, the Fifth District between Democratic US Rep. Jahana Hays and GOP St. Sen. George Logan. If there’s a red wave on election day, it must include this House seat. Levy probably won’t win, but she is polling within single digits of Blumenthal in one survey. RealClearPolitics.com changed its rating here to “lean Democrat.” If you’re a betting person, place $100 on Logan and a $10 long-shot wager on Levy.
Connecticut 5th District GOP nominee and St. Sen. George Logan. Most of this district was once represented by former US Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT)
One factor not mentioned in these posts is fundraising. Democrats are universally outraising and outspending Republican candidates. But in a “wave” election, money is trumped by message. Next post: the most interesting elections of this cycle.
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My “Early Election Returns” Scorecard, Part II
Thanks for the post. I also appreciate Daniel Brinkman’s posts. It will be very interesting to see how election
nightseason/week/month goes.