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We are now t-minus 20 days from the 2022 elections. It’s about now that I customarily begin eyeballing well-crafted public opinion surveys and national and state election dynamics (debates, candidate performance, local issues, etc.), as many campaigns fall by the wayside.
Early voting is well underway in more than a dozen states. We’re in the throes of televised debates, a final round of endorsements, and the final flurry of attack ads and “October surprises.” Lawyers are being hired for the inevitable recounts.
Today, I’m beginning to construct my “scorecard” of early election results in the Eastern Standard Time Zone that will portend whether it is a “normal” mid-term election or something resembling a massive red wave.
This post is the first of a series of election analyses leading to November 8th. I’m outlining the races I’m watching most closely for a trend. I’ll follow with observations and highlights of debates, the most interesting elections of the cycle (starting with Utah’s US Senate race). This is the first of two (maybe three) posts about races that compose my election night scorecard – about two dozen.
Let me set the stage. On August 20, I posted about the Democratic Party’s newfound and badly-placed enthusiasm for the forthcoming election. I told the story of the 1994 elections when Democrats, late that summer, experienced similar notions before losing control of the US House for the first time in 40 years, coupled with an 8-seat GOP gain in the US Senate.
What I predicted on August 20: “As pollster and messaging expert Frank Luntz noted, most Americans are driven by unaffordability, anxiety, and anger. Things can change, of course. But while it may not qualify as a hectic flush, most signs suggest that Democrats are whistling past the political graveyard.”
By Drew Sheneman, Newark Star-Ledger, via NJ.com
Based on a flurry of national polling conducted over the past two weeks, Democratic party professionals are beginning to spot a massive red wave on the horizon. And with less than 3 weeks to election day – and early voting underway in a dozen or more states – the cake is more than baked. All that’s missing is the final layer of frosting.
After a glimmer of electoral hope towards the end of summer, aided by some deft issue deflection and assistance from out-of-the mainstream challengers, Democrats are once again staring reality in the face with three weeks to go until the midterms. The latest economic reports show U.S. core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, at a forty-year high with overall consumer prices up more than 8 percent on the year. Americans continue to watch their paychecks erode as they confront higher prices in nearly every aspect of life.
It will take an act of God or an incredibly inept Republican Party to fail to convert this economic pain among voters into control of one or both legislative chambers in the November elections.
And this, co-authored in the Wall Street Journal by Democratic strategist Doug Schoen and former New York City Council President Andrew Stein (D):
The Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010.
There has been a 3-point swing to Republicans in generic-ballot polling in just the last month, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Democrats led by as much as 1.3 points in September, but as of Monday, Republicans were up by 1.8.
A late September ABC News/Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it’s needed most. The GOP had a 5-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in “competitive” congressional districts. Other battleground-district polls, from CBS News, Economist/YouGov and CNN, showed the GOP with a much narrower lead, but a consistent one.
What does that mean for seats? The House’s current breakdown is 220-212 in favor of the Democrats, with three vacant seats. A majority of a full House is 218. As of Sunday, RealClearPolitics rates 221 seats as leaning, likely or securely Republican, to 176 for the Democrats. The other 38 seats are toss-ups.
If there are no upsets on either side and the toss-ups are evenly split, that brings Republicans to a 240-195 majority—a gain of 28 seats.
In fairness, many statewide public polls for toss-up gubernatorial and US Senate races don’t reflect that yet. Republican candidates like Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz continue to trail. But most of the trend lines are clear. In one survey, Oz trailed his stroke-victim opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, by double digits less than a month ago. The latest reliable poll has it within the margin of error. These state polls may be lagging indicators, and more than a few have poor track records in recent elections. Local issues also may influence outcomes in some states, such as Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The most interesting of the recent national polls is the Harvard Harris CAPS survey conducted on October 12th and 13th. Democratic pollster Mark Penn supervised the poll of over 1,000 registered voters (not likely voters, which has become the norm).
Eddie Zipperer @EddieZipperer
Most important issues facing the country: 37% Inflation 29% Economy 23% Immigration What issues do you think GOP is focused on? 37% Immigration 24% Inflation 21% Economy What issues are Dems focused on? 27% Jan 6 25% Women’s rights 23% Climate Change
My “Early Election Returns” Scorecard, Part I
By Drew Sheneman, Newark Star-Ledger, via NJ.com
I agree that Hung Ca0 is running a strong race, but was down in Rappahannock County recently and was surprised to see quite a few Wexton signs in different places, as opposed to his. That is a very odd district, and Sperryville etc. have been infiltrated by migrating DC libs.
I will cast a useless and symbolic vote against Gerry Connelly.
thank you for your detailed and insightful analysis.
It is valued.
The northern Virginia media coverage of this race (and Vega’s) has been abysmal, mostly due to its leftward bias and incompetent analyses. Cao’s campaign is flying below the radar with little polling. It’s hard to read.
What a spectacular post so chock full of information that is not possible to glean from standard media outlets.
I keep wondering about the Oz/Fetterer election. The Dems see to it the polls supporting Fetterer are abundantly available. (Rather reminiscent of the “Polls show Hillary Clinton will deliver an 89% to 11% landslide victory over Donald Trump” headlines from back in 2016.)
Media bias has been on going for decades.
I remember during one crucial Secretary of State election here in Calif, CBS news out of Sacramento interviewed the Republican candidate for that slot 29 minutes before polls closed. The reporter even congratulated the Republican on the victory.
Then the other candidate won.
I have never understood why that was done. Was there some expectation that a few last minute voters would stay home after hearing their candidate lost? Or what?
Thank you for your kind comment about my post. Would you share more info about the California race you’re referring to? I’m curious about who the candidates were and the year of the election. Feel free to send me a private message or respond here.
A vote against Gerry Connolly is never useless.
In that race I think about Kathy Barnett. She is so much better than Oz. Even if Oz wins, it will still feel like a loss to me.
Thinking longer term. If the Ultra MAGA wave can go on for another few cycles, we might end up with a GOP that cares more about America than enriching themselves. We’ll know when “Cocaine” Mitch is out of office.
Same with me. Wish I could vote for either Cao or Vega.
An excellent run down. The only question I have is the Cooke Report still respected and why? Seems like it hasn’t gotten things right in marginal races in over a decade.
Very good question. I have known founder Charlie Cook (he has turned the reins over to Amy Walters) for nearly 40 years. They do a nice job of gathering intel and analyzing campaigns, but over the year, I believe that they and other pundits over-rely on increasingly flawed polling. Charlie and Larry Sabato issued mea culpas for missing the 2016 election trend. While I still respect their work, which is relied upon by those of us in the craft, they could benefit from getting outside the beltway and spending more time in competitive districts and states. Being on the ground, talking to voters, and investigating election dynamics is invaluable.
Thank you Kelly. I always appreciate your thoughtful comments on the real state of politics.
It’s getting late for an October surprise but, based on recent reporting, I think the Democrats have one up their sleave. I expect a nationwide flurry of Drag Queen performances in elementary schools across the country, in one last effort to show America just how different from each other the two parties really are.
I could be wrong, of course.
My only concern with early voting numbers is that deceased and fictitious voters tend to vote early…
Consider the analysis of the flippable congressional districts that I wrote up, Flipping Congressional Districts, Part 9, as a helpful companion piece.
In our county the Clerk is under investigation for mishandling absentee ballots.
Outstanding analysis. Thanks, Kelly!