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I see a a lot of posts and comments from people who have concluded that the 2022 election is hopeless–that election fraud, combined with the huge Democrat funding advantage and the dominance of Democrat-advocating media, will make it impossible for any Republican candidate to win (any Republican candidate other than those who aren’t a challenge to the Democrat-desired status quo, at least).
I’m reminded of a passage in the book Infantry in Battle, written between the world wars–it contains numerous individual-experience monographs (American, French, and German) along with some rather philosophical thoughts about conclusions to be drawn from these experiences. (The book was edited by then-colonel George C Marshall)
Here’s the quote I was thinking of:
The enemy invariably has difficulties of which we are ignorant; to us, his situation may appear favorable while to him it may seem desperate. Only a slight extra effort on our part may be decisive.
I think this point is valid in business and in politics as well as in warfare: put yourself in your opponent’s shoes, and think about what things he is probably most worried about…or should be worried about.
So if you were the Supreme Commander of the Democrats, seeking power for your party, what would be keeping you awake at night?
For starters, I’d suggest:
Minority-group support. The Dems have clearly believed for a long time that they have an inherent right to the votes of black and Hispanic people. Recent years have called this support in question. See for example this post about Hispanic voters. And Al Sharpton just warned Democrats that they “aren’t connecting” with black and Hispanic voters–especially black men.
The education lessons of the lockdown. Millions of parents have gotten a close-up view of what is being taught and learned in the schools their kids attend, and a lot of them don’t like it very much. The heavy-handed tactics of many school boards and officials and of Biden’s justice department have ramped up the emotional level. The very close identification of the public schools with the Dems is likely to hurt them electorally as the veil is ripped off as to what these schools actually are. (See this article, which links a survey showing that 89% of voters believe that it is important for public schools to “fully inform parents” about what is being taught to their children in classrooms.
Crime. In many places, crime has reached levels at which it impinges on daily life. And “defund the police,” release of dangerous criminals, etc., are so closely aligned with the Democrats that it will be difficult for them to deny the connection.
The women’s vote. Women as a group have traditionally been more Democrat-leaning than men, and especially, upper-middle-class suburban women have been strongly aligned with the Dems. But not all of these women have kids who are in private schools; some of them have kids in public schools and have been exposed to the lockdown lessons about school dysfunctionality. A lot of women are concerned about the destruction of women’s sports due to the Dem-aligned acceptance of biological men as women in competition. Also, a lot of women are surely very concerned about escalating crime in their areas.
Energy. The narrative as to how wind and sun can do it all..and maybe do it even more cheaply than fossil fuels or nuclear… sounded good to many, as long as they didn’t look too deeply and it all remained in the realm of theory. But the energy catastrophe in Germany, and events in some parts of the US, have tended to push reality to the forefront and may make people more accepting of challenges to this narrative.
Media. Regard for the traditional media has fallen quite a lot. (See this survey, which shows confidence in Newspapers down from 37% in 2000 to 16% in 2022, and confidence in television news dropping from 36% to 11% over the same time period) While the influence of the media is still great and must not be disregarded, it is no longer viewed as the oracle that it once was.
Social Media. Although the major social media platforms have been powerful factors in pushing Democrat and Leftist narratives, these platforms have their own problems. Take a look at the Meta/Facebook stock chart. It now looks like Elon Musk will indeed get Twitter, which he has said should be much more free-speech-friendly than it is at present. A Federal Appeals Court has upheld a Texas law requiring viewpoint neutrality on the part of large social media companies. These things are probably too late to influence to outcome of the 2022 election, but they will have an important longer-term effect.
Higher Education. While for a few decades, higher ed was viewed as the single path to career success…and its professors had at least some credibility as objective custodians of truth…the first of these beliefs has lost much force as a result of bitter experience, and the second has collapsed almost completely. Higher institutions have been an important support bloc for the Democrats, and the influence of the teaching and culture in most colleges and universities has been distinctly leftward. A fall in the importance and credibility of these institutions is, like the previous point, a longer-term factor, but it will be an important one.
Weakness at the Top of the Democratic Ticket. It is hard to imagine a president who is of less midterm electoral value to his party than Joseph Biden, and his vice president isn’t much, if any, better.
Extreme Left limits Dem options. The extreme and lunatic Left is now so powerful in the Democrat party that it limits rational policy and political maneuvering.
Resentment of all the insults. Much Democrat political communication in recent years has not been intended to persuade; it has been intended to signal the virtue of the communicators and to insult and intimidate those at whom it is directed. It probably has had the intended effect of getting many opponents and questioners to shut up. But, in the privacy of the voting booth, I suspect that a lot of people are going to remember the insults directed at people like them, and hence to be reluctant to support a party and candidates aligned with the sources of those insults.
I’m certainly not arguing that the election is in the bag: we should not by any means get cocky. But at present, I think that despair may be more of a threat than overconfidence.
The importance of this election is hard to overstate. Today’s Democratic Party is clearly hostile to free speech, and if they retain either the House or Senate–especially if they retain both–along with a substantial number of the state offices at issue, then serious opposition candidates are likely to have a very difficult time in the future. As far as free speech and the preservation of the Constitutional system go, almost any Republican candidate is better than almost any of today’s Democrats.
Contribute to candidates you like and who look like they have a chance of winning. Also consider contributing to election-integrity groups such as this Judicial Watch initiative and the True the Vote group. Try to talk to any friends who might be influenceable.
The next 35 days will be very, very important.Published in